Defensive: Team Stats · Exp pts def tot (allowed)
What Exp pts def tot (allowed) is
Total expected points contributed by the defense: every opponent play valued by how much it changed their chance of scoring, summed over the season, from the defense's side. The situation-aware summary of the whole defense.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2025 the Seahawks led at 9.95; the league average was -1.21.
League snapshot — 2025
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 9.95 | 17 |
| 2 | HOU | 8.49 | 17 |
| 3 | MIN | 5.89 | 17 |
| 4 | CLE | 5.73 | 17 |
| 5 | JAX | 4.72 | 17 |
| 6 | LAR | 3.80 | 17 |
| 7 | DEN | 3.10 | 17 |
| 8 | PHI | 2.98 | 17 |
| 9 | LAC | 2.89 | 17 |
| 10 | NE | 2.70 | 17 |
| 11 | NO | 2.17 | 17 |
| 12 | KC | -0.92 | 17 |
| 13 | DET | -1.26 | 17 |
| 14 | TB | -1.60 | 17 |
| 15 | BUF | -1.73 | 17 |
| 16 | ATL | -1.89 | 17 |
| 17 | LV | -2.02 | 17 |
| 18 | PIT | -2.12 | 17 |
| 19 | SF | -2.13 | 17 |
| 20 | BAL | -2.20 | 17 |
| 21 | CHI | -2.30 | 17 |
| 22 | IND | -2.66 | 17 |
| 23 | CAR | -3.59 | 17 |
| 24 | GB | -4.62 | 17 |
| 25 | TEN | -5.15 | 17 |
| 26 | MIA | -5.46 | 17 |
| 27 | NYG | -5.69 | 17 |
| 28 | ARI | -7.52 | 17 |
| 29 | CIN | -7.93 | 17 |
| 30 | WAS | -8.87 | 17 |
| 31 | NYJ | -9.99 | 17 |
| 32 | DAL | -11.37 | 17 |
At a glance — 2025
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2025
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 9.95 | 11.15 | 100% |
| 2 | HOU | 8.49 | 9.69 | 96.8% |
| 3 | MIN | 5.89 | 7.10 | 93.5% |
| 4 | CLE | 5.73 | 6.94 | 90.3% |
| 5 | JAX | 4.72 | 5.93 | 87.1% |
| 6 | LAR | 3.80 | 5.00 | 83.9% |
| 7 | DEN | 3.10 | 4.30 | 80.6% |
| 8 | PHI | 2.98 | 4.19 | 77.4% |
| 9 | LAC | 2.89 | 4.09 | 74.2% |
| 10 | NE | 2.70 | 3.91 | 71% |
| 11 | NO | 2.17 | 3.38 | 67.7% |
| 12 | KC | -0.92 | 0.29 | 64.5% |
| 13 | DET | -1.26 | -0.06 | 61.3% |
| 14 | TB | -1.60 | -0.39 | 58.1% |
| 15 | BUF | -1.73 | -0.53 | 54.8% |
| 16 | ATL | -1.89 | -0.69 | 51.6% |
| 17 | LV | -2.02 | -0.81 | 48.4% |
| 18 | PIT | -2.12 | -0.92 | 45.2% |
| 19 | SF | -2.13 | -0.93 | 41.9% |
| 20 | BAL | -2.20 | -0.99 | 38.7% |
| 21 | CHI | -2.30 | -1.10 | 35.5% |
| 22 | IND | -2.66 | -1.46 | 32.3% |
| 23 | CAR | -3.59 | -2.38 | 29% |
| 24 | GB | -4.62 | -3.41 | 25.8% |
| 25 | TEN | -5.15 | -3.94 | 22.6% |
| 26 | MIA | -5.46 | -4.25 | 19.4% |
| 27 | NYG | -5.69 | -4.48 | 16.1% |
| 28 | ARI | -7.52 | -6.31 | 12.9% |
| 29 | CIN | -7.93 | -6.73 | 9.7% |
| 30 | WAS | -8.87 | -7.66 | 6.5% |
| 31 | NYJ | -9.99 | -8.78 | 3.2% |
| 32 | DAL | -11.37 | -10.17 | 0% |
Does Exp pts def tot (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 735–843–37 ATS (46.6%) across 2020–2025, #296 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2022 (134–130, 50.8%); its worst 2024 (106–157, 40.3%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 124–130–2 | 48.8% |
| 2021 | 272 | 128–142–2 | 47.4% |
| 2022 | 271 | 134–130–7 | 50.8% |
| 2023 | 272 | 120–138–14 | 46.5% |
| 2024 | 272 | 106–157–9 | 40.3% |
| 2025 | 272 | 123–146–3 | 45.7% |
Exp pts def tot (allowed) in 2025 vs 2024
Seahawks lead at 9.95 — they ranked #10 last year. Cowboys are last at -11.37 — #28 last year.
The league average is -1.21, down 0.23 from -0.98 last year.
Biggest riser: Jaguars, #31 → #5. Biggest faller: Packers, #5 → #24.
Spread between first and last: 21.32; 22 teams are within 5.18 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2025 vs 2024
| Rank | Team | 2025 | 2024 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 4.72 | -8.45 | +13.18 |
| 2 | SEA | 9.95 | 0.85 | +9.10 |
| 3 | HOU | 8.49 | 1.34 | +7.14 |
| 4 | CAR | -3.59 | -10.60 | +7.02 |
| 5 | NE | 2.70 | -4.06 | +6.76 |
| 6 | LAR | 3.80 | -2.91 | +6.71 |
| 7 | CLE | 5.73 | 0.90 | +4.83 |
| 8 | SF | -2.13 | -5.04 | +2.91 |
| 9 | NO | 2.17 | -0.55 | +2.71 |
| 10 | ATL | -1.89 | -3.60 | +1.71 |
| 11 | MIN | 5.89 | 6.12 | −0.23 |
| 12 | KC | -0.92 | 0.03 | −0.95 |
| 13 | LAC | 2.89 | 4.09 | −1.20 |
| 14 | TB | -1.60 | -0.35 | −1.24 |
| 15 | CHI | -2.30 | -0.87 | −1.43 |
| 16 | PHI | 2.98 | 4.45 | −1.46 |
| 17 | BAL | -2.20 | -0.71 | −1.49 |
| 18 | IND | -2.66 | -0.73 | −1.93 |
| 19 | BUF | -1.73 | 0.29 | −2.02 |
| 20 | LV | -2.02 | 0.08 | −2.10 |
| 21 | TEN | -5.15 | -2.97 | −2.18 |
| 22 | NYG | -5.69 | -3.23 | −2.46 |
| 23 | DEN | 3.10 | 6.13 | −3.04 |
| 24 | CIN | -7.93 | -4.65 | −3.28 |
| 25 | ARI | -7.52 | -3.93 | −3.59 |
| 26 | PIT | -2.12 | 2.03 | −4.15 |
| 27 | DET | -1.26 | 3.11 | −4.37 |
| 28 | WAS | -8.87 | -3.30 | −5.56 |
| 29 | MIA | -5.46 | 0.20 | −5.66 |
| 30 | NYJ | -9.99 | -4.00 | −5.99 |
| 31 | DAL | -11.37 | -4.20 | −7.18 |
| 32 | GB | -4.62 | 3.17 | −7.79 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 3.62 | +3.03 | -6.61 | 1.05 | -0.16 | 2.70 | 6.12 | 5.89 | 16.32 |
| 2 | NO | 3.44 | −1.49 | 4.73 | 9.04 | 3.13 | 8.96 | -0.55 | 2.17 | -3.37 |
| 3 | NE | 2.47 | −0.33 | -2.52 | 7.12 | 7.40 | 5.43 | -4.06 | 2.70 | 1.19 |
| 4 | LAR | 2.22 | −1.15 | 10.28 | 2.44 | 0.20 | 2.01 | -2.91 | 3.80 | -0.28 |
| 5 | TB | 1.88 | −0.61 | 3.29 | 4.64 | 1.53 | 3.26 | -0.35 | -1.60 | 2.39 |
| 6 | SEA | 1.83 | +1.58 | -1.16 | 0.36 | -0.45 | -3.48 | 0.85 | 9.95 | 6.76 |
| 7 | CLE | 1.57 | +0.95 | -5.23 | -0.26 | -0.73 | 11.55 | 0.90 | 5.73 | -0.94 |
| 8 | PIT | 1.54 | −1.12 | 6.91 | 1.99 | -0.94 | 4.66 | 2.03 | -2.12 | -1.78 |
| 9 | LAC | 1.53 | +1.13 | -1.00 | -2.83 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 4.09 | 2.89 | 4.87 |
| 10 | BAL | 1.42 | −1.00 | 4.87 | -1.28 | 2.40 | 9.66 | -0.71 | -2.20 | -2.79 |
| 11 | DEN | 1.30 | +0.88 | -2.87 | -0.09 | 1.50 | -0.38 | 6.13 | 3.10 | 1.70 |
| 12 | PHI | 0.93 | +0.11 | -1.03 | 0.89 | 4.19 | -3.54 | 4.45 | 2.98 | -1.44 |
| 13 | SF | 0.92 | −0.59 | -0.29 | 0.63 | 8.94 | 3.62 | -5.04 | -2.13 | 0.72 |
| 14 | BUF | 0.78 | −1.80 | -1.34 | 8.94 | 4.78 | 4.13 | 0.29 | -1.73 | -9.58 |
| 15 | IND | 0.14 | −1.41 | 3.07 | 2.55 | 2.80 | 1.40 | -0.73 | -2.66 | -5.45 |
| 16 | HOU | 0.09 | +1.65 | -9.49 | -2.87 | 1.64 | 3.08 | 1.34 | 8.49 | -1.54 |
| 17 | KC | -0.02 | +0.54 | -3.71 | -1.18 | -0.77 | 5.56 | 0.03 | -0.92 | 0.84 |
| 18 | CHI | -0.19 | +0.07 | 1.09 | 0.36 | -5.82 | 4.42 | -0.87 | -2.30 | 1.83 |
| 19 | GB | -0.48 | +0.13 | -1.82 | -1.11 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 3.17 | -4.62 | 0.72 |
| 20 | MIA | -0.66 | −1.73 | 4.11 | 2.78 | -0.97 | 1.66 | 0.20 | -5.46 | -6.91 |
| 21 | LV | -0.99 | +1.10 | -7.32 | -3.44 | -1.29 | 5.50 | 0.08 | -2.02 | 1.58 |
| 22 | ATL | -1.00 | +0.69 | -2.79 | -3.87 | -1.57 | 3.65 | -3.60 | -1.89 | 3.05 |
| 23 | DAL | -1.15 | −2.45 | -3.33 | 7.45 | 7.20 | 6.08 | -4.20 | -11.37 | -9.89 |
| 24 | JAX | -1.38 | +1.80 | -8.14 | -6.98 | 1.78 | 3.16 | -8.45 | 4.72 | 4.24 |
| 25 | NYJ | -1.48 | +0.38 | -5.07 | -8.12 | 5.09 | 8.97 | -4.00 | -9.99 | 2.75 |
| 26 | NYG | -1.59 | −0.28 | -1.31 | -0.18 | -3.13 | 2.60 | -3.23 | -5.69 | -0.21 |
| 27 | CIN | -1.88 | −0.66 | -5.26 | 2.99 | 3.80 | -0.70 | -4.65 | -7.93 | -1.36 |
| 28 | CAR | -2.34 | −0.61 | -4.83 | 4.01 | 1.30 | -1.21 | -10.60 | -3.59 | -1.49 |
| 29 | TEN | -2.74 | −0.49 | -7.67 | 3.67 | 0.78 | -2.76 | -2.97 | -5.15 | -5.08 |
| 30 | ARI | -2.86 | −2.19 | 1.86 | 4.01 | 0.12 | -4.99 | -3.93 | -7.52 | -9.57 |
| 31 | WAS | -2.95 | −1.66 | 3.96 | -3.54 | 3.17 | -6.27 | -3.30 | -8.87 | -5.79 |
| 32 | DET | -3.21 | +0.58 | -10.22 | -4.98 | -2.59 | 2.61 | 3.11 | -1.26 | -9.16 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | -1.16 | 0.36 | -0.45 | -3.48 | 0.85 | 9.95 | 6.76 |
| HOU | -9.49 | -2.87 | 1.64 | 3.08 | 1.34 | 8.49 | -1.54 |
| MIN | -6.61 | 1.05 | -0.16 | 2.70 | 6.12 | 5.89 | 16.32 |
| CLE | -5.23 | -0.26 | -0.73 | 11.55 | 0.90 | 5.73 | -0.94 |
| JAX | -8.14 | -6.98 | 1.78 | 3.16 | -8.45 | 4.72 | 4.24 |
| LAR | 10.28 | 2.44 | 0.20 | 2.01 | -2.91 | 3.80 | -0.28 |
| DEN | -2.87 | -0.09 | 1.50 | -0.38 | 6.13 | 3.10 | 1.70 |
| PHI | -1.03 | 0.89 | 4.19 | -3.54 | 4.45 | 2.98 | -1.44 |
| LAC | -1.00 | -2.83 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 4.09 | 2.89 | 4.87 |
| NE | -2.52 | 7.12 | 7.40 | 5.43 | -4.06 | 2.70 | 1.19 |
| NO | 4.73 | 9.04 | 3.13 | 8.96 | -0.55 | 2.17 | -3.37 |
| KC | -3.71 | -1.18 | -0.77 | 5.56 | 0.03 | -0.92 | 0.84 |
| DET | -10.22 | -4.98 | -2.59 | 2.61 | 3.11 | -1.26 | -9.16 |
| TB | 3.29 | 4.64 | 1.53 | 3.26 | -0.35 | -1.60 | 2.39 |
| BUF | -1.34 | 8.94 | 4.78 | 4.13 | 0.29 | -1.73 | -9.58 |
| ATL | -2.79 | -3.87 | -1.57 | 3.65 | -3.60 | -1.89 | 3.05 |
| LV | -7.32 | -3.44 | -1.29 | 5.50 | 0.08 | -2.02 | 1.58 |
| PIT | 6.91 | 1.99 | -0.94 | 4.66 | 2.03 | -2.12 | -1.78 |
| SF | -0.29 | 0.63 | 8.94 | 3.62 | -5.04 | -2.13 | 0.72 |
| BAL | 4.87 | -1.28 | 2.40 | 9.66 | -0.71 | -2.20 | -2.79 |
| CHI | 1.09 | 0.36 | -5.82 | 4.42 | -0.87 | -2.30 | 1.83 |
| IND | 3.07 | 2.55 | 2.80 | 1.40 | -0.73 | -2.66 | -5.45 |
| CAR | -4.83 | 4.01 | 1.30 | -1.21 | -10.60 | -3.59 | -1.49 |
| GB | -1.82 | -1.11 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 3.17 | -4.62 | 0.72 |
| TEN | -7.67 | 3.67 | 0.78 | -2.76 | -2.97 | -5.15 | -5.08 |
| MIA | 4.11 | 2.78 | -0.97 | 1.66 | 0.20 | -5.46 | -6.91 |
| NYG | -1.31 | -0.18 | -3.13 | 2.60 | -3.23 | -5.69 | -0.21 |
| ARI | 1.86 | 4.01 | 0.12 | -4.99 | -3.93 | -7.52 | -9.57 |
| CIN | -5.26 | 2.99 | 3.80 | -0.70 | -4.65 | -7.93 | -1.36 |
| WAS | 3.96 | -3.54 | 3.17 | -6.27 | -3.30 | -8.87 | -5.79 |
| NYJ | -5.07 | -8.12 | 5.09 | 8.97 | -4.00 | -9.99 | 2.75 |
| DAL | -3.33 | 7.45 | 7.20 | 6.08 | -4.20 | -11.37 | -9.89 |
Exp pts def tot (allowed) since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (10.51), 2019 Patriots (15.17), 2020 Rams (10.28), 2021 Saints (9.04), 2022 49ers (8.94), 2023 Browns (11.55), 2024 Broncos (6.13), 2025 Seahawks (9.95).
The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 15.17; the worst Cowboys 2025 at -11.37.
The league average has fallen from 0.74 in 2018 to -1.21 in 2025.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_team_stats_exp_pts_def_tot
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Team Stats
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.