What Exp pts def tot (allowed) is

Total expected points contributed by the defense: every opponent play valued by how much it changed their chance of scoring, summed over the season, from the defense's side. The situation-aware summary of the whole defense.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Saints led at 9.04; the league average was 0.76.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

NO · 9.04

League average

0.76

Best to worst

17.16

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NO	9.04	17
2	BUF	8.94	17
3	DAL	7.45	17
4	NE	7.12	17
5	TB	4.64	17
6	CAR	4.01	17
7	ARI	4.01	17
8	TEN	3.67	17
9	CIN	2.99	17
10	MIA	2.78	17
11	IND	2.55	17
12	LAR	2.44	17
13	PIT	1.99	17
14	MIN	1.05	17
15	PHI	0.89	17
16	SF	0.63	17
17	SEA	0.36	17
18	CHI	0.36	17
19	DEN	-0.09	17
20	NYG	-0.18	17
21	CLE	-0.26	17
22	GB	-1.11	17
23	KC	-1.18	17
24	BAL	-1.28	17
25	LAC	-2.83	17
26	HOU	-2.87	17
27	LV	-3.44	17
28	WAS	-3.54	17
29	ATL	-3.87	17
30	DET	-4.98	17
31	JAX	-6.98	17
32	NYJ	-8.12	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NO · 9.04

League laggard

NYJ · -8.12

League average

0.76

Spread (max − min)

17.16

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NO	9.04	8.28	100%
2	BUF	8.94	8.18	96.8%
3	DAL	7.45	6.69	93.5%
4	NE	7.12	6.36	90.3%
5	TB	4.64	3.89	87.1%
6	CAR	4.01	3.25	83.9%
7	ARI	4.01	3.25	80.6%
8	TEN	3.67	2.91	77.4%
9	CIN	2.99	2.23	74.2%
10	MIA	2.78	2.03	71%
11	IND	2.55	1.80	67.7%
12	LAR	2.44	1.68	64.5%
13	PIT	1.99	1.23	61.3%
14	MIN	1.05	0.30	58.1%
15	PHI	0.89	0.14	54.8%
16	SF	0.63	-0.13	51.6%
17	SEA	0.36	-0.39	48.4%
18	CHI	0.36	-0.40	45.2%
19	DEN	-0.09	-0.84	41.9%
20	NYG	-0.18	-0.93	38.7%
21	CLE	-0.26	-1.02	35.5%
22	GB	-1.11	-1.86	32.3%
23	KC	-1.18	-1.94	29%
24	BAL	-1.28	-2.03	25.8%
25	LAC	-2.83	-3.58	22.6%
26	HOU	-2.87	-3.63	19.4%
27	LV	-3.44	-4.19	16.1%
28	WAS	-3.54	-4.29	12.9%
29	ATL	-3.87	-4.62	9.7%
30	DET	-4.98	-5.74	6.5%
31	JAX	-6.98	-7.74	3.2%
32	NYJ	-8.12	-8.87	0%

Does Exp pts def tot (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 735–843–37 ATS (46.6%) across 2020–2025, #296 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (134–130, 50.8%); its worst 2024 (106–157, 40.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	124–130–2	48.8%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	134–130–7	50.8%
2023	272	120–138–14	46.5%
2024	272	106–157–9	40.3%
2025	272	123–146–3	45.7%

Exp pts def tot (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Saints lead at 9.04 — they ranked #4 last year. Jets are last at -8.12 — #24 last year.

The league average is 0.76, up 2.28 from -1.53 last year.

Biggest riser: Titans, #29 → #8. Biggest faller: Commanders, #6 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 17.16; 22 teams are within 4.15 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

TEN · +11.33

Biggest faller

LAR · −7.85

Most consistent

IND · −0.52

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 2.28

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	TEN	3.67	-7.67	+11.33
2	DAL	7.45	-3.33	+10.78
3	BUF	8.94	-1.34	+10.28
4	NE	7.12	-2.52	+9.64
5	CAR	4.01	-4.83	+8.84
6	CIN	2.99	-5.26	+8.25
7	MIN	1.05	-6.61	+7.66
8	HOU	-2.87	-9.49	+6.62
9	DET	-4.98	-10.22	+5.23
10	CLE	-0.26	-5.23	+4.97
11	NO	9.04	4.73	+4.31
12	LV	-3.44	-7.32	+3.88
13	DEN	-0.09	-2.87	+2.78
14	KC	-1.18	-3.71	+2.53
15	ARI	4.01	1.86	+2.15
16	PHI	0.89	-1.03	+1.92
17	SEA	0.36	-1.16	+1.52
18	TB	4.64	3.29	+1.35
19	JAX	-6.98	-8.14	+1.16
20	NYG	-0.18	-1.31	+1.13
21	SF	0.63	-0.29	+0.92
22	GB	-1.11	-1.82	+0.71
23	IND	2.55	3.07	−0.52
24	CHI	0.36	1.09	−0.74
25	ATL	-3.87	-2.79	−1.07
26	MIA	2.78	4.11	−1.33
27	LAC	-2.83	-1.00	−1.83
28	NYJ	-8.12	-5.07	−3.05
29	PIT	1.99	6.91	−4.92
30	BAL	-1.28	4.87	−6.15
31	WAS	-3.54	3.96	−7.49
32	LAR	2.44	10.28	−7.85

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

NO · 3.64

Multi-year laggard

WAS · -2.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +2.83/yr

Biggest decliner

DAL · −2.21/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	NO	3.64	−1.34	4.73	9.04	3.13	8.96	-0.55	2.17	-1.97
2	MIN	3.35	+2.83	-6.61	1.05	-0.16	2.70	6.12	5.89	14.48
3	TB	2.76	+0.05	3.29	4.64	1.53	3.26	-0.35	-1.60	8.53
4	LAR	2.76	−0.74	10.28	2.44	0.20	2.01	-2.91	3.80	3.49
5	PIT	2.28	−0.56	6.91	1.99	-0.94	4.66	2.03	-2.12	3.43
6	NE	2.25	−0.49	-2.52	7.12	7.40	5.43	-4.06	2.70	-0.35
7	SEA	1.83	+1.58	-1.16	0.36	-0.45	-3.48	0.85	9.95	6.76
8	CLE	1.69	+1.03	-5.23	-0.26	-0.73	11.55	0.90	5.73	-0.17
9	BUF	1.55	−1.23	-1.34	8.94	4.78	4.13	0.29	-1.73	-4.23
10	LAC	1.45	+1.07	-1.00	-2.83	1.38	1.30	4.09	2.89	4.30
11	BAL	1.34	−1.06	4.87	-1.28	2.40	9.66	-0.71	-2.20	-3.33
12	DEN	1.28	+0.87	-2.87	-0.09	1.50	-0.38	6.13	3.10	1.58
13	SF	0.57	−0.85	-0.29	0.63	8.94	3.62	-5.04	-2.13	-1.70
14	IND	0.45	−1.18	3.07	2.55	2.80	1.40	-0.73	-2.66	-3.32
15	PHI	0.40	−0.28	-1.03	0.89	4.19	-3.54	4.45	2.98	-5.14
16	CHI	-0.12	+0.11	1.09	0.36	-5.82	4.42	-0.87	-2.30	2.27
17	GB	-0.18	+0.36	-1.82	-1.11	0.12	0.15	3.17	-4.62	2.84
18	KC	-0.20	+0.40	-3.71	-1.18	-0.77	5.56	0.03	-0.92	-0.43
19	HOU	-0.47	+1.23	-9.49	-2.87	1.64	3.08	1.34	8.49	-5.50
20	MIA	-0.68	−1.75	4.11	2.78	-0.97	1.66	0.20	-5.46	-7.11
21	DAL	-0.83	−2.21	-3.33	7.45	7.20	6.08	-4.20	-11.37	-7.65
22	ATL	-0.98	+0.71	-2.79	-3.87	-1.57	3.65	-3.60	-1.89	3.22
23	JAX	-1.41	+1.78	-8.14	-6.98	1.78	3.16	-8.45	4.72	4.03
24	NYG	-1.61	−0.29	-1.31	-0.18	-3.13	2.60	-3.23	-5.69	-0.31
25	LV	-1.84	+0.46	-7.32	-3.44	-1.29	5.50	0.08	-2.02	-4.39
26	CIN	-1.87	−0.66	-5.26	2.99	3.80	-0.70	-4.65	-7.93	-1.32
27	CAR	-2.37	−0.63	-4.83	4.01	1.30	-1.21	-10.60	-3.59	-1.65
28	NYJ	-2.43	−0.33	-5.07	-8.12	5.09	8.97	-4.00	-9.99	-3.88
29	ARI	-2.47	−1.90	1.86	4.01	0.12	-4.99	-3.93	-7.52	-6.87
30	TEN	-2.54	−0.34	-7.67	3.67	0.78	-2.76	-2.97	-5.15	-3.68
31	DET	-2.55	+1.08	-10.22	-4.98	-2.59	2.61	3.11	-1.26	-4.50
32	WAS	-2.59	−1.39	3.96	-3.54	3.17	-6.27	-3.30	-8.87	-3.32

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
NO	4.73	9.04	3.13	8.96	-0.55	2.17	-1.97
BUF	-1.34	8.94	4.78	4.13	0.29	-1.73	-4.23
DAL	-3.33	7.45	7.20	6.08	-4.20	-11.37	-7.65
NE	-2.52	7.12	7.40	5.43	-4.06	2.70	-0.35
TB	3.29	4.64	1.53	3.26	-0.35	-1.60	8.53
CAR	-4.83	4.01	1.30	-1.21	-10.60	-3.59	-1.65
ARI	1.86	4.01	0.12	-4.99	-3.93	-7.52	-6.87
TEN	-7.67	3.67	0.78	-2.76	-2.97	-5.15	-3.68
CIN	-5.26	2.99	3.80	-0.70	-4.65	-7.93	-1.32
MIA	4.11	2.78	-0.97	1.66	0.20	-5.46	-7.11
IND	3.07	2.55	2.80	1.40	-0.73	-2.66	-3.32
LAR	10.28	2.44	0.20	2.01	-2.91	3.80	3.49
PIT	6.91	1.99	-0.94	4.66	2.03	-2.12	3.43
MIN	-6.61	1.05	-0.16	2.70	6.12	5.89	14.48
PHI	-1.03	0.89	4.19	-3.54	4.45	2.98	-5.14
SF	-0.29	0.63	8.94	3.62	-5.04	-2.13	-1.70
SEA	-1.16	0.36	-0.45	-3.48	0.85	9.95	6.76
CHI	1.09	0.36	-5.82	4.42	-0.87	-2.30	2.27
DEN	-2.87	-0.09	1.50	-0.38	6.13	3.10	1.58
NYG	-1.31	-0.18	-3.13	2.60	-3.23	-5.69	-0.31
CLE	-5.23	-0.26	-0.73	11.55	0.90	5.73	-0.17
GB	-1.82	-1.11	0.12	0.15	3.17	-4.62	2.84
KC	-3.71	-1.18	-0.77	5.56	0.03	-0.92	-0.43
BAL	4.87	-1.28	2.40	9.66	-0.71	-2.20	-3.33
LAC	-1.00	-2.83	1.38	1.30	4.09	2.89	4.30
HOU	-9.49	-2.87	1.64	3.08	1.34	8.49	-5.50
LV	-7.32	-3.44	-1.29	5.50	0.08	-2.02	-4.39
WAS	3.96	-3.54	3.17	-6.27	-3.30	-8.87	-3.32
ATL	-2.79	-3.87	-1.57	3.65	-3.60	-1.89	3.22
DET	-10.22	-4.98	-2.59	2.61	3.11	-1.26	-4.50
JAX	-8.14	-6.98	1.78	3.16	-8.45	4.72	4.03
NYJ	-5.07	-8.12	5.09	8.97	-4.00	-9.99	-3.88

Exp pts def tot (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (10.51), 2019 Patriots (15.17), 2020 Rams (10.28), 2021 Saints (9.04).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 15.17; the worst Lions 2020 at -10.22.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_stats_exp_pts_def_tot
Side: defensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.