What Exp pts rush def (allowed) is

Expected points allowed on the ground: for every opponent run, the change in expected points before and after the play, summed over the season. Situation-aware run defense — a three-yard stop on third-and-two counts for more than the same yards on first down.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Vikings led at 3.30; the league average was 0.30.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

MIN · 3.30

League average

0.30

Best to worst

8.68

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	MIN	3.30	17
2	BAL	3.01	17
3	DEN	2.67	17
4	PHI	2.57	17
5	BUF	2.35	17
6	IND	2.31	17
7	GB	1.87	17
8	HOU	1.80	17
9	PIT	1.66	17
10	MIA	1.59	17
11	LAC	1.14	17
12	LV	1.04	17
13	KC	0.91	17
14	TB	0.82	17
15	CLE	0.79	17
16	SEA	0.55	17
17	DET	0.37	17
18	WAS	0.09	17
19	NE	0.04	17
20	LAR	-0.14	17
21	NYJ	-0.18	17
22	ATL	-0.20	17
23	CHI	-0.23	17
24	NYG	-0.44	17
25	TEN	-0.54	17
26	CIN	-0.85	17
27	ARI	-1.21	17
28	JAX	-1.26	17
29	SF	-1.72	17
30	NO	-3.01	17
31	DAL	-4.03	17
32	CAR	-5.38	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

MIN · 3.30

League laggard

CAR · -5.38

League average

0.30

Spread (max − min)

8.68

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	MIN	3.30	3.00	100%
2	BAL	3.01	2.71	96.8%
3	DEN	2.67	2.37	93.5%
4	PHI	2.57	2.27	90.3%
5	BUF	2.35	2.05	87.1%
6	IND	2.31	2.01	83.9%
7	GB	1.87	1.57	80.6%
8	HOU	1.80	1.50	77.4%
9	PIT	1.66	1.36	74.2%
10	MIA	1.59	1.29	71%
11	LAC	1.14	0.84	67.7%
12	LV	1.04	0.74	64.5%
13	KC	0.91	0.61	61.3%
14	TB	0.82	0.52	58.1%
15	CLE	0.79	0.48	54.8%
16	SEA	0.55	0.25	51.6%
17	DET	0.37	0.07	48.4%
18	WAS	0.09	-0.22	45.2%
19	NE	0.04	-0.27	41.9%
20	LAR	-0.14	-0.45	38.7%
21	NYJ	-0.18	-0.49	35.5%
22	ATL	-0.20	-0.50	32.3%
23	CHI	-0.23	-0.53	29%
24	NYG	-0.44	-0.74	25.8%
25	TEN	-0.54	-0.84	22.6%
26	CIN	-0.85	-1.15	19.4%
27	ARI	-1.21	-1.52	16.1%
28	JAX	-1.26	-1.56	12.9%
29	SF	-1.72	-2.02	9.7%
30	NO	-3.01	-3.32	6.5%
31	DAL	-4.03	-4.33	3.2%
32	CAR	-5.38	-5.69	0%

Does Exp pts rush def (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 764–814–37 ATS (48.4%) across 2020–2025, #277 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (136–118, 53.5%); its worst 2024 (107–156, 40.7%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	136–118–2	53.5%
2021	272	132–138–2	48.9%
2022	271	139–125–7	52.7%
2023	272	126–132–14	48.8%
2024	272	107–156–9	40.7%
2025	272	124–145–3	46.1%

Exp pts rush def (allowed) in 2024 vs 2023

Vikings lead at 3.30 — they ranked #11 last year. Panthers are last at -5.38 — #31 last year.

The league average is 0.30, down 0.81 from 1.12 last year.

Biggest riser: Eagles, #30 → #4. Biggest faller: Titans, #4 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 8.68; 22 teams are within 1.94 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PHI · +3.75

Biggest faller

DAL · −6.29

Most consistent

PIT · +0.14

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▼ -0.81

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	PHI	2.57	-1.17	+3.75
2	DEN	2.67	0.62	+2.05
3	SEA	0.55	-1.48	+2.04
4	BUF	2.35	0.39	+1.96
5	BAL	3.01	1.33	+1.68
6	GB	1.87	0.42	+1.46
7	MIN	3.30	1.90	+1.40
8	IND	2.31	0.96	+1.35
9	KC	0.91	0.03	+0.88
10	MIA	1.59	0.79	+0.81
11	LAC	1.14	0.63	+0.51
12	NYG	-0.44	-0.74	+0.29
13	PIT	1.66	1.52	+0.14
14	CIN	-0.85	-0.54	−0.31
15	LAR	-0.14	0.20	−0.34
16	WAS	0.09	0.50	−0.41
17	LV	1.04	1.76	−0.72
18	ARI	-1.21	-0.47	−0.74
19	JAX	-1.26	0.27	−1.53
20	TB	0.82	2.36	−1.54
21	HOU	1.80	3.39	−1.59
22	CLE	0.79	2.64	−1.85
23	SF	-1.72	0.37	−2.09
24	DET	0.37	2.55	−2.19
25	NYJ	-0.18	2.31	−2.49
26	CHI	-0.23	2.57	−2.80
27	TEN	-0.54	2.71	−3.24
28	ATL	-0.20	3.34	−3.54
29	NE	0.04	3.91	−3.87
30	CAR	-5.38	-1.35	−4.04
31	NO	-3.01	1.76	−4.77
32	DAL	-4.03	2.26	−6.29

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BAL · 1.97

Multi-year laggard

NYG · -1.44

Biggest improver

MIN · +0.79/yr

Biggest decliner

NO · −0.62/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BAL	1.97	+0.04	2.26	1.90	1.45	1.33	3.01	1.28	2.53
2	TB	1.84	+0.06	2.63	1.32	1.07	2.36	0.82	1.64	3.01
3	SEA	1.39	+0.38	2.21	1.77	-0.95	-1.48	0.55	3.51	4.09
4	MIN	1.19	+0.79	-1.32	-0.96	0.42	1.90	3.30	1.63	3.33
5	SF	1.15	−0.05	1.31	1.76	2.88	0.37	-1.72	-0.24	3.68
6	LV	1.03	+0.37	-1.37	2.30	-0.14	1.76	1.04	1.04	2.55
7	TEN	1.01	+0.06	-0.27	1.02	2.38	2.71	-0.54	-0.36	2.15
8	LAR	0.97	−0.48	3.41	1.90	0.64	0.20	-0.14	1.03	-0.26
9	IND	0.86	−0.45	1.51	1.12	1.84	0.96	2.31	1.28	-2.99
10	NYJ	0.85	+0.09	1.99	-0.54	0.15	2.31	-0.18	-1.04	3.28
11	NO	0.83	−0.62	2.46	3.22	0.64	1.76	-3.01	2.13	-1.37
12	HOU	0.83	+0.73	-2.41	-0.14	-0.68	3.39	1.80	1.16	2.70
13	ATL	0.73	−0.05	1.98	-0.38	-0.52	3.34	-0.20	-0.76	1.67
14	PIT	0.68	+0.02	1.51	-1.55	1.15	1.52	1.66	-0.05	0.52
15	NE	0.66	+0.22	-2.15	0.36	1.60	3.91	0.04	0.79	0.10
16	LAC	0.61	+0.53	1.33	-1.49	-2.10	0.63	1.14	1.71	3.04
17	MIA	0.60	+0.27	-0.42	0.10	0.65	0.79	1.59	-1.17	2.67
18	WAS	0.58	−0.30	1.35	0.75	2.34	0.50	0.09	-2.10	1.16
19	ARI	0.57	+0.13	0.36	1.91	0.20	-0.47	-1.21	-0.21	3.42
20	KC	0.52	+0.49	-1.18	-0.14	0.44	0.03	0.91	1.09	2.46
21	BUF	0.38	−0.30	-0.68	1.98	1.84	0.39	2.35	-2.46	-0.72
22	PHI	0.37	+0.01	0.91	1.05	-1.38	-1.17	2.57	0.70	-0.11
23	JAX	0.29	+0.59	-1.73	-0.99	1.40	0.27	-1.26	0.84	3.47
24	CHI	0.23	−0.17	2.33	-0.53	-2.23	2.57	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24
25	DEN	0.22	+0.17	-1.15	-0.76	0.63	0.62	2.67	1.00	-1.45
26	CLE	0.04	+0.24	-0.67	-0.96	-1.94	2.64	0.79	1.43	-0.96
27	GB	-0.34	+0.43	-0.89	-1.92	-2.49	0.42	1.87	0.54	0.07
28	DAL	-0.52	−0.32	-1.25	-0.09	2.36	2.26	-4.03	-2.42	-0.51
29	CIN	-0.54	−0.17	-1.34	0.88	0.72	-0.54	-0.85	-2.37	-0.26
30	DET	-0.55	+0.42	-2.43	-0.88	-3.23	2.55	0.37	0.37	-0.59
31	CAR	-0.89	−0.41	-1.25	2.05	1.42	-1.35	-5.38	-0.62	-1.05
32	NYG	-1.44	−0.42	0.69	-0.90	-2.63	-0.74	-0.44	-4.34	-1.69

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	-1.32	-0.96	0.42	1.90	3.30	1.63	3.33
BAL	2.26	1.90	1.45	1.33	3.01	1.28	2.53
DEN	-1.15	-0.76	0.63	0.62	2.67	1.00	-1.45
PHI	0.91	1.05	-1.38	-1.17	2.57	0.70	-0.11
BUF	-0.68	1.98	1.84	0.39	2.35	-2.46	-0.72
IND	1.51	1.12	1.84	0.96	2.31	1.28	-2.99
GB	-0.89	-1.92	-2.49	0.42	1.87	0.54	0.07
HOU	-2.41	-0.14	-0.68	3.39	1.80	1.16	2.70
PIT	1.51	-1.55	1.15	1.52	1.66	-0.05	0.52
MIA	-0.42	0.10	0.65	0.79	1.59	-1.17	2.67
LAC	1.33	-1.49	-2.10	0.63	1.14	1.71	3.04
LV	-1.37	2.30	-0.14	1.76	1.04	1.04	2.55
KC	-1.18	-0.14	0.44	0.03	0.91	1.09	2.46
TB	2.63	1.32	1.07	2.36	0.82	1.64	3.01
CLE	-0.67	-0.96	-1.94	2.64	0.79	1.43	-0.96
SEA	2.21	1.77	-0.95	-1.48	0.55	3.51	4.09
DET	-2.43	-0.88	-3.23	2.55	0.37	0.37	-0.59
WAS	1.35	0.75	2.34	0.50	0.09	-2.10	1.16
NE	-2.15	0.36	1.60	3.91	0.04	0.79	0.10
LAR	3.41	1.90	0.64	0.20	-0.14	1.03	-0.26
NYJ	1.99	-0.54	0.15	2.31	-0.18	-1.04	3.28
ATL	1.98	-0.38	-0.52	3.34	-0.20	-0.76	1.67
CHI	2.33	-0.53	-2.23	2.57	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24
NYG	0.69	-0.90	-2.63	-0.74	-0.44	-4.34	-1.69
TEN	-0.27	1.02	2.38	2.71	-0.54	-0.36	2.15
CIN	-1.34	0.88	0.72	-0.54	-0.85	-2.37	-0.26
ARI	0.36	1.91	0.20	-0.47	-1.21	-0.21	3.42
JAX	-1.73	-0.99	1.40	0.27	-1.26	0.84	3.47
SF	1.31	1.76	2.88	0.37	-1.72	-0.24	3.68
NO	2.46	3.22	0.64	1.76	-3.01	2.13	-1.37
DAL	-1.25	-0.09	2.36	2.26	-4.03	-2.42	-0.51
CAR	-1.25	2.05	1.42	-1.35	-5.38	-0.62	-1.05

Exp pts rush def (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Texans (4.70), 2019 Steelers (4.63), 2020 Rams (3.41), 2021 Saints (3.22), 2022 49ers (2.88), 2023 Patriots (3.91), 2024 Vikings (3.30).

The best season on record is Texans 2018 at 4.70; the worst Panthers 2024 at -5.38.

The league average has fallen from 0.75 in 2018 to 0.30 in 2024.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_rushing_exp_pts_rush_def
Side: defensive
Family: Rushing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.