What Exp pts rush def (allowed) is

Expected points allowed on the ground: for every opponent run, the change in expected points before and after the play, summed over the season. Situation-aware run defense — a three-yard stop on third-and-two counts for more than the same yards on first down.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Saints led at 3.22; the league average was 0.41.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

NO · 3.22

League average

0.41

Best to worst

5.14

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NO	3.22	17
2	LV	2.30	17
3	CAR	2.05	17
4	BUF	1.98	17
5	ARI	1.91	17
6	LAR	1.90	17
7	BAL	1.90	17
8	SEA	1.77	17
9	SF	1.76	17
10	TB	1.32	17
11	IND	1.12	17
12	PHI	1.05	17
13	TEN	1.02	17
14	CIN	0.88	17
15	WAS	0.75	17
16	NE	0.36	17
17	MIA	0.10	17
18	DAL	-0.09	17
19	KC	-0.14	17
20	HOU	-0.14	17
21	ATL	-0.38	17
22	CHI	-0.53	17
23	NYJ	-0.54	17
24	DEN	-0.76	17
25	DET	-0.88	17
26	NYG	-0.90	17
27	MIN	-0.96	17
28	CLE	-0.96	17
29	JAX	-0.99	17
30	LAC	-1.49	17
31	PIT	-1.55	17
32	GB	-1.92	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NO · 3.22

League laggard

GB · -1.92

League average

0.41

Spread (max − min)

5.14

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NO	3.22	2.81	100%
2	LV	2.30	1.89	96.8%
3	CAR	2.05	1.64	93.5%
4	BUF	1.98	1.57	90.3%
5	ARI	1.91	1.50	87.1%
6	LAR	1.90	1.49	83.9%
7	BAL	1.90	1.49	80.6%
8	SEA	1.77	1.36	77.4%
9	SF	1.76	1.35	74.2%
10	TB	1.32	0.91	71%
11	IND	1.12	0.71	67.7%
12	PHI	1.05	0.64	64.5%
13	TEN	1.02	0.61	61.3%
14	CIN	0.88	0.47	58.1%
15	WAS	0.75	0.34	54.8%
16	NE	0.36	-0.05	51.6%
17	MIA	0.10	-0.31	48.4%
18	DAL	-0.09	-0.50	45.2%
19	KC	-0.14	-0.55	41.9%
20	HOU	-0.14	-0.55	38.7%
21	ATL	-0.38	-0.79	35.5%
22	CHI	-0.53	-0.94	32.3%
23	NYJ	-0.54	-0.95	29%
24	DEN	-0.76	-1.17	25.8%
25	DET	-0.88	-1.29	22.6%
26	NYG	-0.90	-1.31	19.4%
27	MIN	-0.96	-1.37	16.1%
28	CLE	-0.96	-1.37	12.9%
29	JAX	-0.99	-1.40	9.7%
30	LAC	-1.49	-1.90	6.5%
31	PIT	-1.55	-1.96	3.2%
32	GB	-1.92	-2.33	0%

Does Exp pts rush def (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 764–814–37 ATS (48.4%) across 2020–2025, #277 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (136–118, 53.5%); its worst 2024 (107–156, 40.7%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	136–118–2	53.5%
2021	272	132–138–2	48.9%
2022	271	139–125–7	52.7%
2023	272	126–132–14	48.8%
2024	272	107–156–9	40.7%
2025	272	124–145–3	46.1%

Exp pts rush def (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Saints lead at 3.22 — they ranked #3 last year. Packers are last at -1.92 — #21 last year.

The league average is 0.41, up 0.17 from 0.24 last year.

Biggest riser: Raiders, #28 → #2. Biggest faller: Steelers, #10 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 5.14; 17 teams are within 1.32 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LV · +3.67

Biggest faller

PIT · −3.05

Most consistent

PHI · +0.14

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 0.17

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	LV	2.30	-1.37	+3.67
2	CAR	2.05	-1.25	+3.30
3	BUF	1.98	-0.68	+2.65
4	NE	0.36	-2.15	+2.52
5	HOU	-0.14	-2.41	+2.27
6	CIN	0.88	-1.34	+2.22
7	DET	-0.88	-2.43	+1.55
8	ARI	1.91	0.36	+1.55
9	TEN	1.02	-0.27	+1.28
10	DAL	-0.09	-1.25	+1.16
11	KC	-0.14	-1.18	+1.04
12	NO	3.22	2.46	+0.76
13	JAX	-0.99	-1.73	+0.73
14	MIA	0.10	-0.42	+0.51
15	SF	1.76	1.31	+0.45
16	DEN	-0.76	-1.15	+0.38
17	MIN	-0.96	-1.32	+0.36
18	PHI	1.05	0.91	+0.14
19	CLE	-0.96	-0.67	−0.29
20	BAL	1.90	2.26	−0.37
21	IND	1.12	1.51	−0.38
22	SEA	1.77	2.21	−0.45
23	WAS	0.75	1.35	−0.60
24	GB	-1.92	-0.89	−1.04
25	TB	1.32	2.63	−1.30
26	LAR	1.90	3.41	−1.51
27	NYG	-0.90	0.69	−1.60
28	ATL	-0.38	1.98	−2.36
29	NYJ	-0.54	1.99	−2.53
30	LAC	-1.49	1.33	−2.82
31	CHI	-0.53	2.33	−2.86
32	PIT	-1.55	1.51	−3.05

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BAL · 1.97

Multi-year laggard

NYG · -1.44

Biggest improver

MIN · +0.79/yr

Biggest decliner

NO · −0.62/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BAL	1.97	+0.04	2.26	1.90	1.45	1.33	3.01	1.28	2.53
2	TB	1.84	+0.06	2.63	1.32	1.07	2.36	0.82	1.64	3.01
3	SEA	1.39	+0.38	2.21	1.77	-0.95	-1.48	0.55	3.51	4.09
4	MIN	1.19	+0.79	-1.32	-0.96	0.42	1.90	3.30	1.63	3.33
5	SF	1.15	−0.05	1.31	1.76	2.88	0.37	-1.72	-0.24	3.68
6	LV	1.03	+0.37	-1.37	2.30	-0.14	1.76	1.04	1.04	2.55
7	TEN	1.01	+0.06	-0.27	1.02	2.38	2.71	-0.54	-0.36	2.15
8	LAR	0.97	−0.48	3.41	1.90	0.64	0.20	-0.14	1.03	-0.26
9	IND	0.86	−0.45	1.51	1.12	1.84	0.96	2.31	1.28	-2.99
10	NYJ	0.85	+0.09	1.99	-0.54	0.15	2.31	-0.18	-1.04	3.28
11	NO	0.83	−0.62	2.46	3.22	0.64	1.76	-3.01	2.13	-1.37
12	HOU	0.83	+0.73	-2.41	-0.14	-0.68	3.39	1.80	1.16	2.70
13	ATL	0.73	−0.05	1.98	-0.38	-0.52	3.34	-0.20	-0.76	1.67
14	PIT	0.68	+0.02	1.51	-1.55	1.15	1.52	1.66	-0.05	0.52
15	NE	0.66	+0.22	-2.15	0.36	1.60	3.91	0.04	0.79	0.10
16	LAC	0.61	+0.53	1.33	-1.49	-2.10	0.63	1.14	1.71	3.04
17	MIA	0.60	+0.27	-0.42	0.10	0.65	0.79	1.59	-1.17	2.67
18	WAS	0.58	−0.30	1.35	0.75	2.34	0.50	0.09	-2.10	1.16
19	ARI	0.57	+0.13	0.36	1.91	0.20	-0.47	-1.21	-0.21	3.42
20	KC	0.52	+0.49	-1.18	-0.14	0.44	0.03	0.91	1.09	2.46
21	BUF	0.38	−0.30	-0.68	1.98	1.84	0.39	2.35	-2.46	-0.72
22	PHI	0.37	+0.01	0.91	1.05	-1.38	-1.17	2.57	0.70	-0.11
23	JAX	0.29	+0.59	-1.73	-0.99	1.40	0.27	-1.26	0.84	3.47
24	CHI	0.23	−0.17	2.33	-0.53	-2.23	2.57	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24
25	DEN	0.22	+0.17	-1.15	-0.76	0.63	0.62	2.67	1.00	-1.45
26	CLE	0.04	+0.24	-0.67	-0.96	-1.94	2.64	0.79	1.43	-0.96
27	GB	-0.34	+0.43	-0.89	-1.92	-2.49	0.42	1.87	0.54	0.07
28	DAL	-0.52	−0.32	-1.25	-0.09	2.36	2.26	-4.03	-2.42	-0.51
29	CIN	-0.54	−0.17	-1.34	0.88	0.72	-0.54	-0.85	-2.37	-0.26
30	DET	-0.55	+0.42	-2.43	-0.88	-3.23	2.55	0.37	0.37	-0.59
31	CAR	-0.89	−0.41	-1.25	2.05	1.42	-1.35	-5.38	-0.62	-1.05
32	NYG	-1.44	−0.42	0.69	-0.90	-2.63	-0.74	-0.44	-4.34	-1.69

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
NO	2.46	3.22	0.64	1.76	-3.01	2.13	-1.37
LV	-1.37	2.30	-0.14	1.76	1.04	1.04	2.55
CAR	-1.25	2.05	1.42	-1.35	-5.38	-0.62	-1.05
BUF	-0.68	1.98	1.84	0.39	2.35	-2.46	-0.72
ARI	0.36	1.91	0.20	-0.47	-1.21	-0.21	3.42
LAR	3.41	1.90	0.64	0.20	-0.14	1.03	-0.26
BAL	2.26	1.90	1.45	1.33	3.01	1.28	2.53
SEA	2.21	1.77	-0.95	-1.48	0.55	3.51	4.09
SF	1.31	1.76	2.88	0.37	-1.72	-0.24	3.68
TB	2.63	1.32	1.07	2.36	0.82	1.64	3.01
IND	1.51	1.12	1.84	0.96	2.31	1.28	-2.99
PHI	0.91	1.05	-1.38	-1.17	2.57	0.70	-0.11
TEN	-0.27	1.02	2.38	2.71	-0.54	-0.36	2.15
CIN	-1.34	0.88	0.72	-0.54	-0.85	-2.37	-0.26
WAS	1.35	0.75	2.34	0.50	0.09	-2.10	1.16
NE	-2.15	0.36	1.60	3.91	0.04	0.79	0.10
MIA	-0.42	0.10	0.65	0.79	1.59	-1.17	2.67
DAL	-1.25	-0.09	2.36	2.26	-4.03	-2.42	-0.51
KC	-1.18	-0.14	0.44	0.03	0.91	1.09	2.46
HOU	-2.41	-0.14	-0.68	3.39	1.80	1.16	2.70
ATL	1.98	-0.38	-0.52	3.34	-0.20	-0.76	1.67
CHI	2.33	-0.53	-2.23	2.57	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24
NYJ	1.99	-0.54	0.15	2.31	-0.18	-1.04	3.28
DEN	-1.15	-0.76	0.63	0.62	2.67	1.00	-1.45
DET	-2.43	-0.88	-3.23	2.55	0.37	0.37	-0.59
NYG	0.69	-0.90	-2.63	-0.74	-0.44	-4.34	-1.69
MIN	-1.32	-0.96	0.42	1.90	3.30	1.63	3.33
CLE	-0.67	-0.96	-1.94	2.64	0.79	1.43	-0.96
JAX	-1.73	-0.99	1.40	0.27	-1.26	0.84	3.47
LAC	1.33	-1.49	-2.10	0.63	1.14	1.71	3.04
PIT	1.51	-1.55	1.15	1.52	1.66	-0.05	0.52
GB	-0.89	-1.92	-2.49	0.42	1.87	0.54	0.07

Exp pts rush def (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Texans (4.70), 2019 Steelers (4.63), 2020 Rams (3.41), 2021 Saints (3.22).

The best season on record is Texans 2018 at 4.70; the worst Panthers 2019 at -3.20.

The league average has fallen from 0.75 in 2018 to 0.41 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_rushing_exp_pts_rush_def
Side: defensive
Family: Rushing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.