Defensive: Rushing · Exp pts rush def (allowed)
P + N
About this stat ↓What Exp pts rush def (allowed) is
Expected points allowed on the ground: for every opponent run, the change in expected points before and after the play, summed over the season. Situation-aware run defense — a three-yard stop on third-and-two counts for more than the same yards on first down.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Texans led at 4.70; the league average was 0.75.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
HOU · 4.70
League average
0.75
Best to worst
7.15
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 4.70 | 16 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.80 | 16 |
| 3 | CHI | 3.74 | 16 |
| 4 | NO | 2.72 | 16 |
| 5 | MIN | 2.50 | 16 |
| 6 | IND | 2.45 | 16 |
| 7 | BAL | 2.37 | 16 |
| 8 | SF | 1.78 | 16 |
| 9 | SEA | 1.75 | 16 |
| 10 | GB | 1.60 | 16 |
| 11 | JAX | 1.52 | 16 |
| 12 | BUF | 1.32 | 16 |
| 13 | NE | 1.06 | 16 |
| 14 | DEN | 1.03 | 16 |
| 15 | LAC | 0.93 | 16 |
| 16 | TEN | 0.80 | 16 |
| 17 | DET | 0.72 | 16 |
| 18 | CAR | 0.49 | 16 |
| 19 | LAR | 0.25 | 16 |
| 20 | PHI | 0.16 | 16 |
| 21 | CLE | 0.13 | 16 |
| 22 | PIT | -0.03 | 16 |
| 23 | NYG | -0.05 | 16 |
| 24 | NYJ | -0.21 | 16 |
| 25 | TB | -0.56 | 16 |
| 26 | WAS | -0.60 | 16 |
| 27 | MIA | -0.70 | 16 |
| 28 | ARI | -1.59 | 16 |
| 29 | CIN | -1.64 | 16 |
| 30 | KC | -1.66 | 16 |
| 31 | LV | -2.39 | 16 |
| 32 | ATL | -2.46 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
HOU · 4.70
League laggard
ATL · -2.46
League average
0.75
Spread (max − min)
7.15
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 4.70 | 3.95 | 100% |
| 2 | DAL | 3.80 | 3.05 | 96.8% |
| 3 | CHI | 3.74 | 2.99 | 93.5% |
| 4 | NO | 2.72 | 1.97 | 90.3% |
| 5 | MIN | 2.50 | 1.75 | 87.1% |
| 6 | IND | 2.45 | 1.70 | 83.9% |
| 7 | BAL | 2.37 | 1.62 | 80.6% |
| 8 | SF | 1.78 | 1.03 | 77.4% |
| 9 | SEA | 1.75 | 1.01 | 74.2% |
| 10 | GB | 1.60 | 0.85 | 71% |
| 11 | JAX | 1.52 | 0.77 | 67.7% |
| 12 | BUF | 1.32 | 0.57 | 64.5% |
| 13 | NE | 1.06 | 0.32 | 61.3% |
| 14 | DEN | 1.03 | 0.28 | 58.1% |
| 15 | LAC | 0.93 | 0.18 | 54.8% |
| 16 | TEN | 0.80 | 0.05 | 51.6% |
| 17 | DET | 0.72 | -0.03 | 48.4% |
| 18 | CAR | 0.49 | -0.26 | 45.2% |
| 19 | LAR | 0.25 | -0.49 | 41.9% |
| 20 | PHI | 0.16 | -0.59 | 38.7% |
| 21 | CLE | 0.13 | -0.62 | 35.5% |
| 22 | PIT | -0.03 | -0.77 | 32.3% |
| 23 | NYG | -0.05 | -0.80 | 29% |
| 24 | NYJ | -0.21 | -0.96 | 25.8% |
| 25 | TB | -0.56 | -1.30 | 22.6% |
| 26 | WAS | -0.60 | -1.35 | 19.4% |
| 27 | MIA | -0.70 | -1.45 | 16.1% |
| 28 | ARI | -1.59 | -2.34 | 12.9% |
| 29 | CIN | -1.64 | -2.38 | 9.7% |
| 30 | KC | -1.66 | -2.40 | 6.5% |
| 31 | LV | -2.39 | -3.14 | 3.2% |
| 32 | ATL | -2.46 | -3.21 | 0% |
Does Exp pts rush def (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 764–814–37 ATS (48.4%) across 2020–2025, #277 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (136–118, 53.5%); its worst 2024 (107–156, 40.7%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 136–118–2 | 53.5% |
| 2021 | 272 | 132–138–2 | 48.9% |
| 2022 | 271 | 139–125–7 | 52.7% |
| 2023 | 272 | 126–132–14 | 48.8% |
| 2024 | 272 | 107–156–9 | 40.7% |
| 2025 | 272 | 124–145–3 | 46.1% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
BAL · 1.97
Multi-year laggard
NYG · -1.44
Biggest improver
MIN · +0.79/yr
Biggest decliner
NO · −0.62/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 1.97 | +0.04 | 2.26 | 1.90 | 1.45 | 1.33 | 3.01 | 1.28 | 2.53 |
| 2 | TB | 1.84 | +0.06 | 2.63 | 1.32 | 1.07 | 2.36 | 0.82 | 1.64 | 3.01 |
| 3 | SEA | 1.39 | +0.38 | 2.21 | 1.77 | -0.95 | -1.48 | 0.55 | 3.51 | 4.09 |
| 4 | MIN | 1.19 | +0.79 | -1.32 | -0.96 | 0.42 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 1.63 | 3.33 |
| 5 | SF | 1.15 | −0.05 | 1.31 | 1.76 | 2.88 | 0.37 | -1.72 | -0.24 | 3.68 |
| 6 | LV | 1.03 | +0.37 | -1.37 | 2.30 | -0.14 | 1.76 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 2.55 |
| 7 | TEN | 1.01 | +0.06 | -0.27 | 1.02 | 2.38 | 2.71 | -0.54 | -0.36 | 2.15 |
| 8 | LAR | 0.97 | −0.48 | 3.41 | 1.90 | 0.64 | 0.20 | -0.14 | 1.03 | -0.26 |
| 9 | IND | 0.86 | −0.45 | 1.51 | 1.12 | 1.84 | 0.96 | 2.31 | 1.28 | -2.99 |
| 10 | NYJ | 0.85 | +0.09 | 1.99 | -0.54 | 0.15 | 2.31 | -0.18 | -1.04 | 3.28 |
| 11 | NO | 0.83 | −0.62 | 2.46 | 3.22 | 0.64 | 1.76 | -3.01 | 2.13 | -1.37 |
| 12 | HOU | 0.83 | +0.73 | -2.41 | -0.14 | -0.68 | 3.39 | 1.80 | 1.16 | 2.70 |
| 13 | ATL | 0.73 | −0.05 | 1.98 | -0.38 | -0.52 | 3.34 | -0.20 | -0.76 | 1.67 |
| 14 | PIT | 0.68 | +0.02 | 1.51 | -1.55 | 1.15 | 1.52 | 1.66 | -0.05 | 0.52 |
| 15 | NE | 0.66 | +0.22 | -2.15 | 0.36 | 1.60 | 3.91 | 0.04 | 0.79 | 0.10 |
| 16 | LAC | 0.61 | +0.53 | 1.33 | -1.49 | -2.10 | 0.63 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 3.04 |
| 17 | MIA | 0.60 | +0.27 | -0.42 | 0.10 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 1.59 | -1.17 | 2.67 |
| 18 | WAS | 0.58 | −0.30 | 1.35 | 0.75 | 2.34 | 0.50 | 0.09 | -2.10 | 1.16 |
| 19 | ARI | 0.57 | +0.13 | 0.36 | 1.91 | 0.20 | -0.47 | -1.21 | -0.21 | 3.42 |
| 20 | KC | 0.52 | +0.49 | -1.18 | -0.14 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.91 | 1.09 | 2.46 |
| 21 | BUF | 0.38 | −0.30 | -0.68 | 1.98 | 1.84 | 0.39 | 2.35 | -2.46 | -0.72 |
| 22 | PHI | 0.37 | +0.01 | 0.91 | 1.05 | -1.38 | -1.17 | 2.57 | 0.70 | -0.11 |
| 23 | JAX | 0.29 | +0.59 | -1.73 | -0.99 | 1.40 | 0.27 | -1.26 | 0.84 | 3.47 |
| 24 | CHI | 0.23 | −0.17 | 2.33 | -0.53 | -2.23 | 2.57 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.24 |
| 25 | DEN | 0.22 | +0.17 | -1.15 | -0.76 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 2.67 | 1.00 | -1.45 |
| 26 | CLE | 0.04 | +0.24 | -0.67 | -0.96 | -1.94 | 2.64 | 0.79 | 1.43 | -0.96 |
| 27 | GB | -0.34 | +0.43 | -0.89 | -1.92 | -2.49 | 0.42 | 1.87 | 0.54 | 0.07 |
| 28 | DAL | -0.52 | −0.32 | -1.25 | -0.09 | 2.36 | 2.26 | -4.03 | -2.42 | -0.51 |
| 29 | CIN | -0.54 | −0.17 | -1.34 | 0.88 | 0.72 | -0.54 | -0.85 | -2.37 | -0.26 |
| 30 | DET | -0.55 | +0.42 | -2.43 | -0.88 | -3.23 | 2.55 | 0.37 | 0.37 | -0.59 |
| 31 | CAR | -0.89 | −0.41 | -1.25 | 2.05 | 1.42 | -1.35 | -5.38 | -0.62 | -1.05 |
| 32 | NYG | -1.44 | −0.42 | 0.69 | -0.90 | -2.63 | -0.74 | -0.44 | -4.34 | -1.69 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2.21 | 1.77 | -0.95 | -1.48 | 0.55 | 3.51 | 4.09 |
| SF | 1.31 | 1.76 | 2.88 | 0.37 | -1.72 | -0.24 | 3.68 |
| JAX | -1.73 | -0.99 | 1.40 | 0.27 | -1.26 | 0.84 | 3.47 |
| ARI | 0.36 | 1.91 | 0.20 | -0.47 | -1.21 | -0.21 | 3.42 |
| MIN | -1.32 | -0.96 | 0.42 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 1.63 | 3.33 |
| NYJ | 1.99 | -0.54 | 0.15 | 2.31 | -0.18 | -1.04 | 3.28 |
| LAC | 1.33 | -1.49 | -2.10 | 0.63 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 3.04 |
| TB | 2.63 | 1.32 | 1.07 | 2.36 | 0.82 | 1.64 | 3.01 |
| HOU | -2.41 | -0.14 | -0.68 | 3.39 | 1.80 | 1.16 | 2.70 |
| MIA | -0.42 | 0.10 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 1.59 | -1.17 | 2.67 |
| LV | -1.37 | 2.30 | -0.14 | 1.76 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 2.55 |
| BAL | 2.26 | 1.90 | 1.45 | 1.33 | 3.01 | 1.28 | 2.53 |
| KC | -1.18 | -0.14 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.91 | 1.09 | 2.46 |
| TEN | -0.27 | 1.02 | 2.38 | 2.71 | -0.54 | -0.36 | 2.15 |
| ATL | 1.98 | -0.38 | -0.52 | 3.34 | -0.20 | -0.76 | 1.67 |
| WAS | 1.35 | 0.75 | 2.34 | 0.50 | 0.09 | -2.10 | 1.16 |
| PIT | 1.51 | -1.55 | 1.15 | 1.52 | 1.66 | -0.05 | 0.52 |
| NE | -2.15 | 0.36 | 1.60 | 3.91 | 0.04 | 0.79 | 0.10 |
| GB | -0.89 | -1.92 | -2.49 | 0.42 | 1.87 | 0.54 | 0.07 |
| PHI | 0.91 | 1.05 | -1.38 | -1.17 | 2.57 | 0.70 | -0.11 |
| CHI | 2.33 | -0.53 | -2.23 | 2.57 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.24 |
| CIN | -1.34 | 0.88 | 0.72 | -0.54 | -0.85 | -2.37 | -0.26 |
| LAR | 3.41 | 1.90 | 0.64 | 0.20 | -0.14 | 1.03 | -0.26 |
| DAL | -1.25 | -0.09 | 2.36 | 2.26 | -4.03 | -2.42 | -0.51 |
| DET | -2.43 | -0.88 | -3.23 | 2.55 | 0.37 | 0.37 | -0.59 |
| BUF | -0.68 | 1.98 | 1.84 | 0.39 | 2.35 | -2.46 | -0.72 |
| CLE | -0.67 | -0.96 | -1.94 | 2.64 | 0.79 | 1.43 | -0.96 |
| CAR | -1.25 | 2.05 | 1.42 | -1.35 | -5.38 | -0.62 | -1.05 |
| NO | 2.46 | 3.22 | 0.64 | 1.76 | -3.01 | 2.13 | -1.37 |
| DEN | -1.15 | -0.76 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 2.67 | 1.00 | -1.45 |
| NYG | 0.69 | -0.90 | -2.63 | -0.74 | -0.44 | -4.34 | -1.69 |
| IND | 1.51 | 1.12 | 1.84 | 0.96 | 2.31 | 1.28 | -2.99 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_rushing_exp_pts_rush_def
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Rushing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.