New Orleans Saints — Exp pts pass def (allowed), 2026

Value-4.46
Rank#25 of 32
League average-1.52
Rank in 2025#12 of 32

New Orleans Saints — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Exp pts pass def (allowed) is

Expected points allowed through the air: for every opponent pass play, the change in expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. It values each play by the situation it created, not just the yards — a defense that gives up yards between the twenties but holds on third down scores well here.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the Vikings lead at 8.41; the league average is -1.52.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

MIN · 8.41

League average

-1.52

Best to worst

19.59

All 32 teams, higher is better.

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

MIN · 8.41

League laggard

DAL · -11.17

League average

-1.52

Spread (max − min)

19.59

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	MIN	8.41	9.93	100%
2	SEA	3.89	5.42	96.8%
3	DEN	3.08	4.60	93.5%
4	LAR	2.72	4.25	90.3%
5	GB	2.45	3.97	87.1%
6	CLE	2.38	3.90	83.9%
7	CIN	2.06	3.58	80.6%
8	JAX	1.71	3.23	77.4%
9	KC	0.69	2.21	74.2%
10	ATL	0.63	2.15	71%
11	NYJ	0.58	2.10	67.7%
12	SF	0.55	2.07	64.5%
13	LAC	0.42	1.94	61.3%
14	NE	0.40	1.93	58.1%
15	TB	0.15	1.67	54.8%
16	HOU	0.00	1.52	51.6%
17	NYG	-0.36	1.16	48.4%
18	CHI	-0.49	1.03	45.2%
19	PIT	-0.53	0.99	41.9%
20	CAR	-0.84	0.69	38.7%
21	BAL	-1.48	0.04	35.5%
22	LV	-2.86	-1.34	32.3%
23	IND	-2.98	-1.46	29%
24	WAS	-3.72	-2.19	25.8%
25	NO	-4.46	-2.94	22.6%
26	PHI	-4.47	-2.94	19.4%
27	TEN	-6.99	-5.47	16.1%
28	BUF	-8.65	-7.12	12.9%
29	MIA	-8.93	-7.41	9.7%
30	DET	-10.18	-8.65	6.5%
31	ARI	-10.73	-9.21	3.2%
32	DAL	-11.17	-9.65	0%

Does Exp pts pass def (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 747–831–37 ATS (47.3%) across 2020–2025, #293 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	124–130–2	48.8%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	114–149–9	43.3%
2025	272	125–144–3	46.5%

Exp pts pass def (allowed) in 2026 vs 2025

Vikings lead at 8.41 — they ranked #4 last year. Cowboys are last at -11.17 — #31 last year.

The league average is -1.52, down 0.94 from -0.58 last year.

Biggest riser: Bengals, #29 → #7. Biggest faller: Eagles, #5 → #26.

Spread between first and last: 19.59; 23 teams are within 4.58 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NYJ · +8.66

Biggest faller

BUF · −12.02

Most consistent

LAR · −0.07

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▼ -0.94

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	NYJ	0.58	-8.08	+8.66
2	CIN	2.06	-5.53	+7.59
3	GB	2.45	-2.60	+5.05
4	SF	0.55	-3.98	+4.52
5	MIN	8.41	4.32	+4.09
6	WAS	-3.72	-6.89	+3.17
7	TB	0.15	-2.42	+2.56
8	CAR	-0.84	-3.33	+2.49
9	BAL	-1.48	-2.81	+1.33
10	KC	0.69	0.08	+0.61
11	NYG	-0.36	-0.97	+0.61
12	PIT	-0.53	-1.10	+0.57
13	CHI	-0.49	-1.05	+0.55
14	SEA	3.89	3.81	+0.09
15	LAR	2.72	2.79	−0.07
16	LV	-2.86	-2.54	−0.32
17	ATL	0.63	0.99	−0.36
18	DEN	3.08	4.45	−1.37
19	IND	-2.98	-1.56	−1.43
20	NE	0.40	1.89	−1.48
21	TEN	-6.99	-5.49	−1.50
22	CLE	2.38	4.18	−1.80
23	LAC	0.42	2.96	−2.54
24	DAL	-11.17	-7.69	−3.48
25	JAX	1.71	5.54	−3.83
26	MIA	-8.93	-4.10	−4.83
27	ARI	-10.73	-5.26	−5.47
28	NO	-4.46	1.44	−5.90
29	HOU	0.00	6.44	−6.44
30	PHI	-4.47	4.26	−8.73
31	DET	-10.18	0.23	−10.41
32	BUF	-8.65	3.38	−12.02

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DEN · 1.64

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -3.74

Biggest improver

HOU · +1.78/yr

Biggest decliner

DAL · −2.05/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DEN	1.64	+0.90	-1.60	0.09	2.42	-1.83	4.83	4.45	3.08
2	CLE	1.53	+0.84	-4.28	0.93	1.11	8.23	-1.82	4.18	2.38
3	NO	1.52	−1.02	2.71	3.57	2.88	4.36	0.17	1.44	-4.46
4	MIN	1.45	+1.70	-4.94	2.20	-1.21	-0.76	2.15	4.32	8.41
5	LAR	1.25	−0.32	7.41	-0.25	-1.66	0.35	-2.60	2.79	2.72
6	SF	0.87	−0.52	0.79	0.27	4.65	4.59	-0.75	-3.98	0.55
7	BUF	0.61	−1.21	-0.42	6.38	1.41	3.99	-1.82	3.38	-8.65
8	PIT	0.55	−0.72	5.83	0.50	-2.56	2.28	-0.56	-1.10	-0.53
9	NE	0.42	−0.15	-2.16	3.62	4.06	-0.45	-4.38	1.89	0.40
10	LAC	0.37	+0.65	-2.95	-0.65	1.73	-1.43	2.54	2.96	0.42
11	GB	0.36	+0.08	-0.48	1.53	0.38	-0.91	2.18	-2.60	2.45
12	PHI	0.36	+0.10	-2.11	-1.72	5.39	-2.00	3.15	4.26	-4.47
13	KC	0.30	+0.28	-1.68	-1.40	0.77	5.21	-1.59	0.08	0.69
14	TB	0.00	−0.58	0.59	3.83	0.49	-0.86	-1.77	-2.42	0.15
15	BAL	-0.13	−0.06	1.53	-6.09	-0.58	8.37	0.18	-2.81	-1.48
16	SEA	-0.45	+1.51	-5.00	-3.71	-0.34	-1.96	0.18	3.81	3.89
17	HOU	-0.70	+1.78	-8.74	-4.59	0.49	-0.69	2.20	6.44	0.00
18	NYG	-0.98	+0.15	-2.69	-1.15	-0.26	1.94	-3.39	-0.97	-0.36
19	IND	-1.18	−0.45	0.35	-1.50	-0.11	0.13	-2.59	-1.56	-2.98
20	MIA	-1.18	−1.65	2.95	1.66	-1.16	1.59	-0.30	-4.10	-8.93
21	DAL	-1.19	−2.05	-2.67	5.86	3.84	4.47	-0.99	-7.69	-11.17
22	CIN	-1.26	+0.18	-4.48	-0.09	2.26	-1.54	-1.51	-5.53	2.06
23	CHI	-1.47	+0.40	-2.70	-1.00	-4.87	-0.06	-0.13	-1.05	-0.49
24	JAX	-1.71	+1.60	-7.73	-6.31	-0.03	2.01	-7.16	5.54	1.71
25	CAR	-2.00	−0.12	-3.58	0.60	-1.60	0.02	-5.28	-3.33	-0.84
26	NYJ	-2.28	+0.71	-7.56	-7.93	3.11	5.20	-1.28	-8.08	0.58
27	WAS	-2.29	−1.09	4.26	-4.91	1.98	-6.03	-0.76	-6.89	-3.72
28	ATL	-2.43	+1.17	-5.98	-4.96	-4.53	0.40	-3.59	0.99	0.63
29	LV	-3.11	+0.69	-7.01	-5.19	-3.88	2.05	-2.34	-2.54	-2.86
30	ARI	-3.41	−1.55	-0.81	1.04	-1.17	-4.78	-2.16	-5.26	-10.73
31	DET	-3.61	+0.65	-10.89	-5.29	-1.65	-0.80	3.31	0.23	-10.18
32	TEN	-3.74	−0.34	-7.62	1.00	-2.65	-3.18	-1.22	-5.49	-6.99

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	-4.94	2.20	-1.21	-0.76	2.15	4.32	8.41
SEA	-5.00	-3.71	-0.34	-1.96	0.18	3.81	3.89
DEN	-1.60	0.09	2.42	-1.83	4.83	4.45	3.08
LAR	7.41	-0.25	-1.66	0.35	-2.60	2.79	2.72
GB	-0.48	1.53	0.38	-0.91	2.18	-2.60	2.45
CLE	-4.28	0.93	1.11	8.23	-1.82	4.18	2.38
CIN	-4.48	-0.09	2.26	-1.54	-1.51	-5.53	2.06
JAX	-7.73	-6.31	-0.03	2.01	-7.16	5.54	1.71
KC	-1.68	-1.40	0.77	5.21	-1.59	0.08	0.69
ATL	-5.98	-4.96	-4.53	0.40	-3.59	0.99	0.63
NYJ	-7.56	-7.93	3.11	5.20	-1.28	-8.08	0.58
SF	0.79	0.27	4.65	4.59	-0.75	-3.98	0.55
LAC	-2.95	-0.65	1.73	-1.43	2.54	2.96	0.42
NE	-2.16	3.62	4.06	-0.45	-4.38	1.89	0.40
TB	0.59	3.83	0.49	-0.86	-1.77	-2.42	0.15
HOU	-8.74	-4.59	0.49	-0.69	2.20	6.44	0.00
NYG	-2.69	-1.15	-0.26	1.94	-3.39	-0.97	-0.36
CHI	-2.70	-1.00	-4.87	-0.06	-0.13	-1.05	-0.49
PIT	5.83	0.50	-2.56	2.28	-0.56	-1.10	-0.53
CAR	-3.58	0.60	-1.60	0.02	-5.28	-3.33	-0.84
BAL	1.53	-6.09	-0.58	8.37	0.18	-2.81	-1.48
LV	-7.01	-5.19	-3.88	2.05	-2.34	-2.54	-2.86
IND	0.35	-1.50	-0.11	0.13	-2.59	-1.56	-2.98
WAS	4.26	-4.91	1.98	-6.03	-0.76	-6.89	-3.72
NO	2.71	3.57	2.88	4.36	0.17	1.44	-4.46
PHI	-2.11	-1.72	5.39	-2.00	3.15	4.26	-4.47
TEN	-7.62	1.00	-2.65	-3.18	-1.22	-5.49	-6.99
BUF	-0.42	6.38	1.41	3.99	-1.82	3.38	-8.65
MIA	2.95	1.66	-1.16	1.59	-0.30	-4.10	-8.93
DET	-10.89	-5.29	-1.65	-0.80	3.31	0.23	-10.18
ARI	-0.81	1.04	-1.17	-4.78	-2.16	-5.26	-10.73
DAL	-2.67	5.86	3.84	4.47	-0.99	-7.69	-11.17

Exp pts pass def (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (5.14), 2019 Patriots (10.68), 2020 Rams (7.41), 2021 Bills (6.38), 2022 Eagles (5.39), 2023 Ravens (8.37), 2024 Broncos (4.83), 2025 Texans (6.44), 2026 Vikings (8.41).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 10.68; the worst Cowboys 2026 at -11.17.

The league average has fallen from -1.35 in 2018 to -1.52 in 2026.

Week to week — Week 4 to Week 5

Since Week 4: Packers up 17 (#22 → #5), Jets up 11 (#21 → #10), Texans up 9 (#25 → #16); Raiders down 18 (#4 → #22), Bears down 13 (#5 → #18), Ravens down 10 (#11 → #21).

15 teams moved by two places or fewer.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_passing_exp_pts_pass_def
Side: defensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.