Algorithm picks and results

Every game the site's own algorithm has an opinion on: its rating for each team, the market number, the side it takes and how that turned out.

Its record

  • 58.6%2023–2026Replayed against each full season467-330-19 against the spread
  • 53.8%2023–2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then469-402-23 against the spread
  • 59.5%2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then44-30-4 against the spread

The two numbers cover the same games. The higher one replays the algorithm against each season in full; the lower is it picking week to week with only what was known at the time. Break-even against the spread is 52.4% after the standard vig.

The record, drawn

Against the spread, by season

Picking week to week with only what was known at the time — the seasons this algorithm has actually been live for.

Week by week

Each week on its own, as a rate rather than a count of wins — a sixteen-game week and a bye-shortened one are comparable this way.

How much it wins and loses by

Every graded game, by how far it beat or missed the number. A percentage says how often; this says by how much — a record built on half-point escapes and one built on comfortable margins read identically until you draw them.

2026 picks are the algorithm's own, made before each game and graded on the closing spread.

Week 1
NENew England Patriots3-210
SEASeattle Seahawks3-213
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas SEA -3Total 44.5
NE 22.0 scored (19th) · 18.8 allowed (4th)SEA 26.8 scored (8th) · 21.0 allowed (9th)
SFSan Francisco 49ers5-027
LARLos Angeles Rams2-27
FinalSF covered
Vegas LAR -3.5Total 47.5
SF 30.8 scored (3rd) · 18.6 allowed (3rd)LAR 21.3 scored (23rd) · 20.8 allowed (8th)
CHIChicago Bears3-259
CARCarolina Panthers2-237
FinalCHI covered
Vegas CHI -3Total 47.5
CHI 23.8 scored (14th) · 19.2 allowed (5th)CAR 30.3 scored (4th) · 27.3 allowed (27th)
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1-427
CINCincinnati Bengals3-233
FinalCIN covered
Vegas CIN -3.5Total 50.5
TB 20.0 scored (25th) · 22.4 allowed (19th)CIN 25.6 scored (10th) · 21.8 allowed (11th)
NONew Orleans Saints1-430
DETDetroit Lions3-231
FinalNO covered
Vegas DET -7Total 49.5
NO 23.6 scored (15th) · 30.2 allowed (31st)DET 32.8 scored (1st) · 29.6 allowed (29th)
BUFBuffalo Bills3-136
HOUHouston Texans1-431
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -1.5Total 44.5
BUF 31.8 scored (2nd) · 26.8 allowed (25th)HOU 22.0 scored (18th) · 22.4 allowed (17th)
BALBaltimore Ravens4-141
INDIndianapolis Colts2-323
FinalBAL covered
Vegas BAL -3Total 48.5
BAL 29.2 scored (6th) · 23.8 allowed (20th)IND 24.8 scored (11th) · 27.6 allowed (28th)
CLECleveland Browns3-210
JAXJacksonville Jaguars4-134
FinalJAX covered
Vegas JAX -8.5Total 40.5
CLE 18.6 scored (27th) · 22.4 allowed (15th)JAX 24.6 scored (12th) · 14.0 allowed (2nd)
ATLAtlanta Falcons2-313
PITPittsburgh Steelers3-220
FinalPIT covered
Vegas PIT -6.5Total 40.5
ATL 23.8 scored (13th) · 24.4 allowed (21st)PIT 22.2 scored (17th) · 21.8 allowed (12th)
NYJNew York Jets2-323
TENTennessee Titans0-510
FinalNYJ covered
Vegas TEN -1.5Total 39.5
NYJ 18.6 scored (28th) · 19.2 allowed (6th)TEN 11.6 scored (32nd) · 21.8 allowed (13th)
ARIArizona Cardinals1-426
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-514
FinalARI covered
Vegas LAC -8.5Total 47.5
ARI 21.6 scored (22nd) · 32.4 allowed (32nd)LAC 16.8 scored (30th) · 25.8 allowed (22nd)
MIAMiami Dolphins0-513
LVLas Vegas Raiders3-227
FinalLV covered
Vegas LV -3Total 40.5
MIA 14.0 scored (31st) · 26.4 allowed (24th)LV 26.4 scored (9th) · 25.8 allowed (23rd)
GBGreen Bay Packers3-222
MINMinnesota Vikings5-039
FinalMIN covered
Vegas MIN -1.5Total 46.5
GB 20.8 scored (24th) · 22.4 allowed (16th)MIN 21.8 scored (20th) · 12.8 allowed (1st)
WASWashington Commanders1-3-122
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-324
FinalWAS covered
Vegas PHI -6Total 43.5
WAS 23.0 scored (16th) · 29.8 allowed (30th)PHI 18.4 scored (29th) · 22.4 allowed (18th)
DALDallas Cowboys2-320
NYGNew York Giants3-1-128
FinalNYG covered
Vegas DAL -3Total 47.5
DAL 27.6 scored (7th) · 27.2 allowed (26th)NYG 21.8 scored (21st) · 21.2 allowed (10th)
DENDenver Broncos3-210
KCKansas City Chiefs4-031
FinalKC covered
Vegas KC -2.5Total 42.5
DEN 19.4 scored (26th) · 22.2 allowed (14th)KC 29.5 scored (5th) · 19.3 allowed (7th)
Week 2
DETDetroit Lions3-231
BUFBuffalo Bills3-141
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -5.5Total 54.5
DET 32.8 scored (1st) · 29.6 allowed (29th)BUF 31.8 scored (2nd) · 26.8 allowed (25th)
CARCarolina Panthers2-234
ATLAtlanta Falcons2-33
FinalCAR covered
Vegas CAR -2.5Total 43.5
CAR 30.3 scored (4th) · 27.3 allowed (27th)ATL 23.8 scored (13th) · 24.4 allowed (21st)
NONew Orleans Saints1-424
BALBaltimore Ravens4-117
FinalNO covered
Vegas BAL -8.5Total 45.5
NO 23.6 scored (15th) · 30.2 allowed (31st)BAL 29.2 scored (6th) · 23.8 allowed (20th)
MINMinnesota Vikings5-09
CHIChicago Bears3-23
FinalMIN covered
Vegas CHI -4.5Total 46.5
MIN 21.8 scored (20th) · 12.8 allowed (1st)CHI 23.8 scored (14th) · 19.2 allowed (5th)
CINCincinnati Bengals3-220
HOUHouston Texans1-46
FinalCIN covered
Vegas HOU -3Total 45.5
CIN 25.6 scored (10th) · 21.8 allowed (11th)HOU 22.0 scored (18th) · 22.4 allowed (17th)
PITPittsburgh Steelers3-23
NENew England Patriots3-220
FinalNE covered
Vegas NE -4.5Total 41.5
PIT 22.2 scored (17th) · 21.8 allowed (12th)NE 22.0 scored (19th) · 18.8 allowed (4th)
GBGreen Bay Packers3-220
NYJNew York Jets2-317
FinalNYJ covered
Vegas GB -3.5Total 44.5
GB 20.8 scored (24th) · 22.4 allowed (16th)NYJ 18.6 scored (28th) · 19.2 allowed (6th)
CLECleveland Browns3-223
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1-419
FinalCLE covered
Vegas TB -8.5Total 41.5
CLE 18.6 scored (27th) · 22.4 allowed (15th)TB 20.0 scored (25th) · 22.4 allowed (19th)
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-324
TENTennessee Titans0-520
FinalTEN covered
Vegas PHI -7Total 39.5
PHI 18.4 scored (29th) · 22.4 allowed (18th)TEN 11.6 scored (32nd) · 21.8 allowed (13th)
JAXJacksonville Jaguars4-113
DENDenver Broncos3-220
FinalDEN covered
Vegas DEN -2.5Total 45.5
JAX 24.6 scored (12th) · 14.0 allowed (2nd)DEN 19.4 scored (26th) · 22.2 allowed (14th)
LVLas Vegas Raiders3-226
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-514
FinalLV covered
Vegas LAC -6.5Total 43.5
LV 26.4 scored (9th) · 25.8 allowed (23rd)LAC 16.8 scored (30th) · 25.8 allowed (22nd)
SEASeattle Seahawks3-231
ARIArizona Cardinals1-47
FinalSEA covered
Vegas SEA -3.5Total 40.5
SEA 26.8 scored (8th) · 21.0 allowed (9th)ARI 21.6 scored (22nd) · 32.4 allowed (32nd)
WASWashington Commanders1-3-120
DALDallas Cowboys2-337
FinalDAL covered
Vegas DAL -3.5Total 51.5
WAS 23.0 scored (16th) · 29.8 allowed (30th)DAL 27.6 scored (7th) · 27.2 allowed (26th)
MIAMiami Dolphins0-513
SFSan Francisco 49ers5-035
FinalSF covered
Vegas SF -12.5Total 44.5
MIA 14.0 scored (31st) · 26.4 allowed (24th)SF 30.8 scored (3rd) · 18.6 allowed (3rd)
INDIndianapolis Colts2-330
KCKansas City Chiefs4-033
FinalIND covered
Vegas KC -6Total 46.5
IND 24.8 scored (11th) · 27.6 allowed (28th)KC 29.5 scored (5th) · 19.3 allowed (7th)
NYGNew York Giants3-1-16
LARLos Angeles Rams2-228
FinalLAR covered
Vegas LAR -6.5Total 47.5
NYG 21.8 scored (21st) · 21.2 allowed (10th)LAR 21.3 scored (23rd) · 20.8 allowed (8th)
Week 3
ATLAtlanta Falcons2-335
GBGreen Bay Packers3-214
FinalATL covered
Vegas GB -4.5GB -6 → GB -4.5Total 43.5
Power rating ATL 97.9 (28th) · GB 100.5 (14th)
Algorithm took ATL — correct
ATL 23.8 scored (13th) · 24.4 allowed (21st)GB 20.8 scored (24th) · 22.4 allowed (16th)
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-516
BUFBuffalo Bills3-124
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -7Total 50.5
Power rating LAC 100.1 (18th) · BUF 103.8 (2nd)
Algorithm took LAC — wrong
LAC 16.8 scored (30th) · 25.8 allowed (22nd)BUF 31.8 scored (2nd) · 26.8 allowed (25th)
CARCarolina Panthers2-218
CLECleveland Browns3-221
FinalCLE covered
Vegas CAR -2.5Total 41.5
Power rating CAR 98.9 (21st) · CLE 97.9 (29th)
Algorithm took CLE — correct
CAR 30.3 scored (4th) · 27.3 allowed (27th)CLE 18.6 scored (27th) · 22.4 allowed (15th)
NYJNew York Jets2-324
DETDetroit Lions3-231
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas DET -7DET -6.5 → DET -7Total 49.5
Power rating NYJ 95.7 (32nd) · DET 102.2 (5th)
Algorithm took DET — correct
NYJ 18.6 scored (28th) · 19.2 allowed (6th)DET 32.8 scored (1st) · 29.6 allowed (29th)
HOUHouston Texans1-417
INDIndianapolis Colts2-319
FinalIND covered
Vegas HOU -1.5HOU -2.5 → HOU -1.5Total 41.5
Power rating HOU 101.2 (11th) · IND 101.3 (10th)
Algorithm took IND — correct
HOU 22.0 scored (18th) · 22.4 allowed (17th)IND 24.8 scored (11th) · 27.6 allowed (28th)
NENew England Patriots3-26
JAXJacksonville Jaguars4-135
FinalJAX covered
Vegas JAX -3JAX -2.5 → JAX -3Total 44.5
Power rating NE 102.8 (4th) · JAX 102.1 (6th)
Algorithm took NE — wrong
NE 22.0 scored (19th) · 18.8 allowed (4th)JAX 24.6 scored (12th) · 14.0 allowed (2nd)
KCKansas City Chiefs4-024
MIAMiami Dolphins0-510
FinalKC covered
Vegas KC -10KC -11.5 → KC -10Total 45.5
Power rating KC 101.3 (9th) · MIA 98.1 (26th)
Algorithm took MIA — wrong
KC 29.5 scored (5th) · 19.3 allowed (7th)MIA 14.0 scored (31st) · 26.4 allowed (24th)
TENTennessee Titans0-57
NYGNew York Giants3-1-112
FinalNYG covered
Vegas NYG -2.5NYG -3.5 → NYG -2.5Total 37.5
Power rating TEN 95.8 (31st) · NYG 98.9 (20th)
Algorithm took NYG — correct
TEN 11.6 scored (32nd) · 21.8 allowed (13th)NYG 21.8 scored (21st) · 21.2 allowed (10th)
CINCincinnati Bengals3-227
PITPittsburgh Steelers3-230
FinalPIT covered
Vegas CIN -3.5Total 42.5
Power rating CIN 98.0 (27th) · PIT 98.5 (23rd)
Algorithm took PIT — correct
CIN 25.6 scored (10th) · 21.8 allowed (11th)PIT 22.2 scored (17th) · 21.8 allowed (12th)
SEASeattle Seahawks3-231
WASWashington Commanders1-3-133
FinalWAS covered
Vegas SEA -8.5SEA -7 → SEA -8.5Total 40.5
Power rating SEA 103.6 (3rd) · WAS 98.2 (24th)
Algorithm took WAS — correct
SEA 26.8 scored (8th) · 21.0 allowed (9th)WAS 23.0 scored (16th) · 29.8 allowed (30th)
ARIArizona Cardinals1-430
SFSan Francisco 49ers5-036
FinalARI covered
Vegas SF -7.5SF -8.5 → SF -7.5Total 48.5
Power rating ARI 98.1 (25th) · SF 101.6 (7th)
Algorithm took ARI — correct
ARI 21.6 scored (22nd) · 32.4 allowed (32nd)SF 30.8 scored (3rd) · 18.6 allowed (3rd)
MINMinnesota Vikings5-023
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1-416
FinalMIN covered
Vegas MIN -1.5Total 42.5
Power rating MIN 100.3 (17th) · TB 98.5 (22nd)
Algorithm took TB — wrong
MIN 21.8 scored (20th) · 12.8 allowed (1st)TB 20.0 scored (25th) · 22.4 allowed (19th)
BALBaltimore Ravens4-134
DALDallas Cowboys2-331
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas BAL -3Total 53.5
Power rating BAL 101.1 (12th) · DAL 100.3 (16th)
Algorithm took DAL — push
BAL 29.2 scored (6th) · 23.8 allowed (20th)DAL 27.6 scored (7th) · 27.2 allowed (26th)
LVLas Vegas Raiders3-235
NONew Orleans Saints1-427
FinalLV covered
Vegas NO -3.5NO -3 → NO -3.5Total 43.5
Power rating LV 96.9 (30th) · NO 100.0 (19th)
Algorithm took NO — wrong
LV 26.4 scored (9th) · 25.8 allowed (23rd)NO 23.6 scored (15th) · 30.2 allowed (31st)
LARLos Angeles Rams2-226
DENDenver Broncos3-230
FinalDEN covered
Vegas DEN -1.5LAR -2.5 → DEN -1.5Total 43.5
Power rating LAR 103.8 (1st) · DEN 101.5 (8th)
Algorithm took DEN — correct
LAR 21.3 scored (23rd) · 20.8 allowed (8th)DEN 19.4 scored (26th) · 22.2 allowed (14th)
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-37
CHIChicago Bears3-227
FinalCHI covered
Vegas PHI -3.5PHI -3 → PHI -3.5Total 42.5
Power rating PHI 101.0 (13th) · CHI 100.5 (15th)
Algorithm took CHI — correct
PHI 18.4 scored (29th) · 22.4 allowed (18th)CHI 23.8 scored (14th) · 19.2 allowed (5th)