Algorithm picks and results

Every game the site's own algorithm has an opinion on: its rating for each team, the market number, the side it takes and how that turned out.

Its record

  • 58.6%2023–2026Replayed against each full season467-330-19 against the spread
  • 53.8%2023–2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then477-409-23 against the spread
  • 58.4%2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then52-37-4 against the spread

The two numbers cover the same games. The higher one replays the algorithm against each season in full; the lower is it picking week to week with only what was known at the time. Break-even against the spread is 52.4% after the standard vig.

The record, drawn

Against the spread, by season

Picking week to week with only what was known at the time — the seasons this algorithm has actually been live for.

Week by week

Each week on its own, as a rate rather than a count of wins — a sixteen-game week and a bye-shortened one are comparable this way.

How much it wins and loses by

Every graded game, by how far it beat or missed the number. A percentage says how often; this says by how much — a record built on half-point escapes and one built on comfortable margins read identically until you draw them.

2026 picks are the algorithm's own, made before each game and graded on the closing spread.

Week 1
NENew England Patriots4-210
SEASeattle Seahawks3-313
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas SEA -3Total 44.5
NE 22.7 scored (18th) · 18.8 allowed (5th)SEA 24.7 scored (13th) · 20.3 allowed (9th)
SFSan Francisco 49ers6-027
LARLos Angeles Rams2-47
FinalSF covered
Vegas LAR -3.5Total 47.5
SF 29.5 scored (3rd) · 18.3 allowed (4th)LAR 22.5 scored (20th) · 23.0 allowed (17th)
CHIChicago Bears4-259
CARCarolina Panthers3-237
FinalCHI covered
Vegas CHI -3Total 47.5
CHI 25.0 scored (12th) · 19.8 allowed (6th)CAR 29.2 scored (4th) · 24.6 allowed (21st)
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1-527
CINCincinnati Bengals3-233
FinalCIN covered
Vegas CIN -3.5Total 50.5
TB 19.8 scored (25th) · 23.0 allowed (18th)CIN 25.6 scored (9th) · 21.8 allowed (14th)
NONew Orleans Saints2-430
DETDetroit Lions3-231
FinalNO covered
Vegas DET -7Total 49.5
NO 25.3 scored (10th) · 29.7 allowed (32nd)DET 32.8 scored (2nd) · 29.6 allowed (30th)
BUFBuffalo Bills5-136
HOUHouston Texans2-431
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -1.5Total 44.5
BUF 32.8 scored (1st) · 28.5 allowed (28th)HOU 24.0 scored (14th) · 23.8 allowed (20th)
BALBaltimore Ravens4-241
INDIndianapolis Colts2-423
FinalBAL covered
Vegas BAL -3Total 48.5
BAL 26.0 scored (7th) · 22.0 allowed (15th)IND 24.0 scored (15th) · 27.3 allowed (27th)
CLECleveland Browns4-210
JAXJacksonville Jaguars4-234
FinalJAX covered
Vegas JAX -8.5Total 40.5
CLE 17.7 scored (28th) · 20.3 allowed (7th)JAX 25.7 scored (8th) · 17.3 allowed (3rd)
ATLAtlanta Falcons2-413
PITPittsburgh Steelers4-220
FinalPIT covered
Vegas PIT -6.5Total 40.5
ATL 23.7 scored (16th) · 25.5 allowed (23rd)PIT 22.8 scored (17th) · 21.3 allowed (12th)
NYJNew York Jets2-423
TENTennessee Titans1-510
FinalNYJ covered
Vegas TEN -1.5Total 39.5
NYJ 18.7 scored (27th) · 20.3 allowed (8th)TEN 14.0 scored (32nd) · 21.5 allowed (13th)
ARIArizona Cardinals2-426
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-614
FinalARI covered
Vegas LAC -8.5Total 47.5
ARI 21.0 scored (24th) · 29.7 allowed (31st)LAC 15.0 scored (30th) · 25.2 allowed (22nd)
MIAMiami Dolphins0-513
LVLas Vegas Raiders3-327
FinalLV covered
Vegas LV -3Total 40.5
MIA 14.0 scored (31st) · 26.4 allowed (24th)LV 27.0 scored (6th) · 27.0 allowed (26th)
GBGreen Bay Packers4-222
MINMinnesota Vikings5-039
FinalMIN covered
Vegas MIN -1.5Total 46.5
GB 21.2 scored (23rd) · 20.8 allowed (11th)MIN 21.8 scored (22nd) · 12.8 allowed (1st)
WASWashington Commanders1-4-122
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-424
FinalWAS covered
Vegas PHI -6Total 43.5
WAS 22.0 scored (21st) · 28.7 allowed (29th)PHI 17.7 scored (29th) · 22.8 allowed (16th)
DALDallas Cowboys2-420
NYGNew York Giants3-2-128
FinalNYG covered
Vegas DAL -3Total 47.5
DAL 25.2 scored (11th) · 26.5 allowed (25th)NYG 22.7 scored (19th) · 23.3 allowed (19th)
DENDenver Broncos4-210
KCKansas City Chiefs5-031
FinalKC covered
Vegas KC -2.5Total 42.5
DEN 19.0 scored (26th) · 20.8 allowed (10th)KC 28.0 scored (5th) · 16.6 allowed (2nd)
Week 2
DETDetroit Lions3-231
BUFBuffalo Bills5-141
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -5.5Total 54.5
DET 32.8 scored (2nd) · 29.6 allowed (30th)BUF 32.8 scored (1st) · 28.5 allowed (28th)
CARCarolina Panthers3-234
ATLAtlanta Falcons2-43
FinalCAR covered
Vegas CAR -2.5Total 43.5
CAR 29.2 scored (4th) · 24.6 allowed (21st)ATL 23.7 scored (16th) · 25.5 allowed (23rd)
NONew Orleans Saints2-424
BALBaltimore Ravens4-217
FinalNO covered
Vegas BAL -8.5Total 45.5
NO 25.3 scored (10th) · 29.7 allowed (32nd)BAL 26.0 scored (7th) · 22.0 allowed (15th)
MINMinnesota Vikings5-09
CHIChicago Bears4-23
FinalMIN covered
Vegas CHI -4.5Total 46.5
MIN 21.8 scored (22nd) · 12.8 allowed (1st)CHI 25.0 scored (12th) · 19.8 allowed (6th)
CINCincinnati Bengals3-220
HOUHouston Texans2-46
FinalCIN covered
Vegas HOU -3Total 45.5
CIN 25.6 scored (9th) · 21.8 allowed (14th)HOU 24.0 scored (14th) · 23.8 allowed (20th)
PITPittsburgh Steelers4-23
NENew England Patriots4-220
FinalNE covered
Vegas NE -4.5Total 41.5
PIT 22.8 scored (17th) · 21.3 allowed (12th)NE 22.7 scored (18th) · 18.8 allowed (5th)
GBGreen Bay Packers4-220
NYJNew York Jets2-417
FinalNYJ covered
Vegas GB -3.5Total 44.5
GB 21.2 scored (23rd) · 20.8 allowed (11th)NYJ 18.7 scored (27th) · 20.3 allowed (8th)
CLECleveland Browns4-223
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1-519
FinalCLE covered
Vegas TB -8.5Total 41.5
CLE 17.7 scored (28th) · 20.3 allowed (7th)TB 19.8 scored (25th) · 23.0 allowed (18th)
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-424
TENTennessee Titans1-520
FinalTEN covered
Vegas PHI -7Total 39.5
PHI 17.7 scored (29th) · 22.8 allowed (16th)TEN 14.0 scored (32nd) · 21.5 allowed (13th)
JAXJacksonville Jaguars4-213
DENDenver Broncos4-220
FinalDEN covered
Vegas DEN -2.5Total 45.5
JAX 25.7 scored (8th) · 17.3 allowed (3rd)DEN 19.0 scored (26th) · 20.8 allowed (10th)
LVLas Vegas Raiders3-326
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-614
FinalLV covered
Vegas LAC -6.5Total 43.5
LV 27.0 scored (6th) · 27.0 allowed (26th)LAC 15.0 scored (30th) · 25.2 allowed (22nd)
SEASeattle Seahawks3-331
ARIArizona Cardinals2-47
FinalSEA covered
Vegas SEA -3.5Total 40.5
SEA 24.7 scored (13th) · 20.3 allowed (9th)ARI 21.0 scored (24th) · 29.7 allowed (31st)
WASWashington Commanders1-4-120
DALDallas Cowboys2-437
FinalDAL covered
Vegas DAL -3.5Total 51.5
WAS 22.0 scored (21st) · 28.7 allowed (29th)DAL 25.2 scored (11th) · 26.5 allowed (25th)
MIAMiami Dolphins0-513
SFSan Francisco 49ers6-035
FinalSF covered
Vegas SF -12.5Total 44.5
MIA 14.0 scored (31st) · 26.4 allowed (24th)SF 29.5 scored (3rd) · 18.3 allowed (4th)
INDIndianapolis Colts2-430
KCKansas City Chiefs5-033
FinalIND covered
Vegas KC -6Total 46.5
IND 24.0 scored (15th) · 27.3 allowed (27th)KC 28.0 scored (5th) · 16.6 allowed (2nd)
NYGNew York Giants3-2-16
LARLos Angeles Rams2-428
FinalLAR covered
Vegas LAR -6.5Total 47.5
NYG 22.7 scored (19th) · 23.3 allowed (19th)LAR 22.5 scored (20th) · 23.0 allowed (17th)
Week 3
ATLAtlanta Falcons2-435
GBGreen Bay Packers4-214
FinalATL covered
Vegas GB -4.5GB -6 → GB -4.5Total 43.5
Power rating ATL 97.9 (28th) · GB 100.5 (14th)
Algorithm took ATL — correct
ATL 23.7 scored (16th) · 25.5 allowed (23rd)GB 21.2 scored (23rd) · 20.8 allowed (11th)
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-616
BUFBuffalo Bills5-124
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -7Total 50.5
Power rating LAC 100.1 (18th) · BUF 103.8 (2nd)
Algorithm took LAC — wrong
LAC 15.0 scored (30th) · 25.2 allowed (22nd)BUF 32.8 scored (1st) · 28.5 allowed (28th)
CARCarolina Panthers3-218
CLECleveland Browns4-221
FinalCLE covered
Vegas CAR -2.5Total 41.5
Power rating CAR 98.9 (21st) · CLE 97.9 (29th)
Algorithm took CLE — correct
CAR 29.2 scored (4th) · 24.6 allowed (21st)CLE 17.7 scored (28th) · 20.3 allowed (7th)
NYJNew York Jets2-424
DETDetroit Lions3-231
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas DET -7DET -6.5 → DET -7Total 49.5
Power rating NYJ 95.7 (32nd) · DET 102.2 (5th)
Algorithm took DET — correct
NYJ 18.7 scored (27th) · 20.3 allowed (8th)DET 32.8 scored (2nd) · 29.6 allowed (30th)
HOUHouston Texans2-417
INDIndianapolis Colts2-419
FinalIND covered
Vegas HOU -1.5HOU -2.5 → HOU -1.5Total 41.5
Power rating HOU 101.2 (11th) · IND 101.3 (10th)
Algorithm took IND — correct
HOU 24.0 scored (14th) · 23.8 allowed (20th)IND 24.0 scored (15th) · 27.3 allowed (27th)
NENew England Patriots4-26
JAXJacksonville Jaguars4-235
FinalJAX covered
Vegas JAX -3JAX -2.5 → JAX -3Total 44.5
Power rating NE 102.8 (4th) · JAX 102.1 (6th)
Algorithm took NE — wrong
NE 22.7 scored (18th) · 18.8 allowed (5th)JAX 25.7 scored (8th) · 17.3 allowed (3rd)
KCKansas City Chiefs5-024
MIAMiami Dolphins0-510
FinalKC covered
Vegas KC -10KC -11.5 → KC -10Total 45.5
Power rating KC 101.3 (9th) · MIA 98.1 (26th)
Algorithm took MIA — wrong
KC 28.0 scored (5th) · 16.6 allowed (2nd)MIA 14.0 scored (31st) · 26.4 allowed (24th)
TENTennessee Titans1-57
NYGNew York Giants3-2-112
FinalNYG covered
Vegas NYG -2.5NYG -3.5 → NYG -2.5Total 37.5
Power rating TEN 95.8 (31st) · NYG 98.9 (20th)
Algorithm took NYG — correct
TEN 14.0 scored (32nd) · 21.5 allowed (13th)NYG 22.7 scored (19th) · 23.3 allowed (19th)
CINCincinnati Bengals3-227
PITPittsburgh Steelers4-230
FinalPIT covered
Vegas CIN -3.5Total 42.5
Power rating CIN 98.0 (27th) · PIT 98.5 (23rd)
Algorithm took PIT — correct
CIN 25.6 scored (9th) · 21.8 allowed (14th)PIT 22.8 scored (17th) · 21.3 allowed (12th)
SEASeattle Seahawks3-331
WASWashington Commanders1-4-133
FinalWAS covered
Vegas SEA -8.5SEA -7 → SEA -8.5Total 40.5
Power rating SEA 103.6 (3rd) · WAS 98.2 (24th)
Algorithm took WAS — correct
SEA 24.7 scored (13th) · 20.3 allowed (9th)WAS 22.0 scored (21st) · 28.7 allowed (29th)
ARIArizona Cardinals2-430
SFSan Francisco 49ers6-036
FinalARI covered
Vegas SF -7.5SF -8.5 → SF -7.5Total 48.5
Power rating ARI 98.1 (25th) · SF 101.6 (7th)
Algorithm took ARI — correct
ARI 21.0 scored (24th) · 29.7 allowed (31st)SF 29.5 scored (3rd) · 18.3 allowed (4th)
MINMinnesota Vikings5-023
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers1-516
FinalMIN covered
Vegas MIN -1.5Total 42.5
Power rating MIN 100.3 (17th) · TB 98.5 (22nd)
Algorithm took TB — wrong
MIN 21.8 scored (22nd) · 12.8 allowed (1st)TB 19.8 scored (25th) · 23.0 allowed (18th)
BALBaltimore Ravens4-234
DALDallas Cowboys2-431
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas BAL -3Total 53.5
Power rating BAL 101.1 (12th) · DAL 100.3 (16th)
Algorithm took DAL — push
BAL 26.0 scored (7th) · 22.0 allowed (15th)DAL 25.2 scored (11th) · 26.5 allowed (25th)
LVLas Vegas Raiders3-335
NONew Orleans Saints2-427
FinalLV covered
Vegas NO -3.5NO -3 → NO -3.5Total 43.5
Power rating LV 96.9 (30th) · NO 100.0 (19th)
Algorithm took NO — wrong
LV 27.0 scored (6th) · 27.0 allowed (26th)NO 25.3 scored (10th) · 29.7 allowed (32nd)
LARLos Angeles Rams2-426
DENDenver Broncos4-230
FinalDEN covered
Vegas DEN -1.5LAR -2.5 → DEN -1.5Total 43.5
Power rating LAR 103.8 (1st) · DEN 101.5 (8th)
Algorithm took DEN — correct
LAR 22.5 scored (20th) · 23.0 allowed (17th)DEN 19.0 scored (26th) · 20.8 allowed (10th)
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-47
CHIChicago Bears4-227
FinalCHI covered
Vegas PHI -3.5PHI -3 → PHI -3.5Total 42.5
Power rating PHI 101.0 (13th) · CHI 100.5 (15th)
Algorithm took CHI — correct
PHI 17.7 scored (29th) · 22.8 allowed (16th)CHI 25.0 scored (12th) · 19.8 allowed (6th)