Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

186.79

Def EXP

-33.70

#13

Net EXP

153.09

Record

12-5

Pythag 11.2 (+0.8)

Power Rating

104.6

SRS

+5.47

SoS Rank

#27

pts: −1.3 (#29)

#27

Pts / Game

28.3

Home 31.2 · Road 25.0

Net Pts / G

+6.8

Pts Allowed / G

21.5

Home 23.4 · Road 19.3

#12

Yds / Play

5.90

Yds/Play Allowed

5.20

#15

3rd Down %

44.8%

3rd Down % Allowed

41.4%

#24

Showing the 2025 season — the most recent with complete stats. 2026 appears here as its weeks complete.

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	481	391.22	+89.78	#4
Total Yards	6397	5,552.97	+844.03	#4
Yds / Play	5.90	5.33	+0.58	#4
1st Downs	374	328.63	+45.38	#4
Turnovers	19	19.66	-0.66	#16
Fumbles Lost	9	7.78	+1.22	#23
EXP Pts	186.79	58.31	+128.48	#3

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	365	391.22	-26.22	#12
Total Yards	4983	5,552.97	-569.97	#7
Yds / Play	5.20	5.33	-0.13	#15
1st Downs	300	328.63	-28.63	#7
Turnovers	20	19.66	+0.34	#16
Fumbles Lost	7	7.78	-0.78	#19
EXP Pts	-33.70	-58.31	+24.61	#13

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 481 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.


Drives	174	177.88	-3.88	#23
Plays / Drive	6.30	6.05	+0.25	#7
Yds / Drive	36.70	31.19	+5.51	#4
Points / Drive	2.70	2.11	+0.59	#2
Score %	44.80	39.55	+5.25	#7
Turnover %	10.30	10.49	-0.19	#16

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Rush Att	547	456.28	+90.72	#1
Rush Yds	2714	1,988.06	+725.94	#1
Rush Y/A	5	4.34	+0.66	#2
Rush TD	30	15.94	+14.06	#1
EXP Pts Rush	50.22	11.49	+38.73	#3

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	495	544.97	-49.97	#25
Pass Cmp	344	350.53	-6.53	#16
Cmp %	69.50	64.35	+5.15	#2
Pass Yds	3683	3,564.91	+118.09	#15
Yds / Att	7.40	6.56	+0.84	#4
Yds / Cmp	10.70	10.16	+0.54	#13
Adj Y/A	7.70	6.49	+1.21	#5
Adj NY/A	7.10	6.05	+1.05	#6
Pass TD	29	25.34	+3.66	#8
TD %	5.90	4.66	+1.24	#4
Pass Int	10	11.88	-1.88	#12
Int %	2	2.21	-0.21	#17
Sack %	7.50	6.91	+0.59	#21
Pass Rating	102.10	89.31	+12.79	#4
EXP Pts Pass	152.18	60.56	+91.62	#6

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.


3rd Down Att	210	214.38	-4.38	#18
3rd Down Made	94	84.69	+9.31	#7
4th Down Att	32	27.69	+4.31	#7
4th Down Made	19	15.28	+3.72	#5
Red Zone Att	65	54.41	+10.59	#5
Red Zone Scores	43	31.16	+11.84	#2

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.


Drives	177	177.88	-0.88	#16
Plays / Drive	5.50	6.05	-0.55	#3
Yds / Drive	28	31.21	-3.21	#8
Points / Drive	2.09	2.12	-0.02	#13
Score %	37.30	39.58	-2.28	#11
Turnover %	11.30	10.46	+0.84	#13

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Rush Att	450	456.28	-6.28	#14
Rush Yds	2315	1,988.06	+326.94	#28
Rush Y/A	5.10	4.35	+0.75	#30
Rush TD	24	15.94	+8.06	#32
EXP Pts Rush	-73.51	-11.49	-62.02	#31

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	464	544.97	-80.97	#31
Pass Cmp	277	350.53	-73.53	#1
Cmp %	59.70	64.33	-4.63	#4
Pass Yds	2668	3,564.91	-896.91	#1
Yds / Att	6.20	7.02	-0.82	#4
Yds / Cmp	10.40	10.92	-0.52	#8
Adj Y/A	5.80	6.98	-1.18	#5
Adj NY/A	4.90	6.06	-1.16	#6
Pass TD	19	25.34	-6.34	#6
TD %	4.10	4.66	-0.56	#12
Pass Int	13	12.26	+0.74	#11
Int %	2.80	2.24	+0.56	#8
Sack %	7.20	6.91	+0.29	#13
Pass Rating	79.80	91.44	-11.64	#7
EXP Pts Pass	26.43	-60.56	+86.99	#3

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.


3rd Down Att	203	214.38	-11.38	#8
3rd Down Made	84	84.69	-0.69	#18
4th Down Att	19	27.69	-8.69	#3
4th Down Made	10	15.28	-5.28	#5
Red Zone Att	47	54.41	-7.41	#7
Red Zone Scores	28	31.16	-3.16	#14

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2025. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

90.0%

#8 of 32

PAT%

91.0%

#28 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

1 / 1

#9 of 32

Return Yards

2,036

#12 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

52 yd

FG %

90.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	4	0	100.0%
30-39	7	1	87.5%
40-49	7	0	100.0%
50-59	1	1	50.0%
60+	0	0	—

Made FG distances

20–2925262728(4)

30–3931323335373839(7)

40–4941434344454548(7)

50–5952(1)

Missed FG distances

30–3939(1)

50–5952(1)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

91.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

GWFG distances

30–3932(1)

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

194

Punt avg

6.5

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

1842

Kickoff avg

27.9

Total return yds

2036

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

2189

Gross avg

44.7

Net yards

2007

Net avg

Long

62 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

42.9%

Touchbacks

TB %

6.1%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

118

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2025.

#20 of 32

#25 of 32

#14 of 32

#7 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2025. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

+97.1

#7 of 32

Rush EPA

+41.3

#2 of 32

Recv EPA

+161.6

#5 of 32

CPOE

+3.82

#5 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2025 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

3,614

#26 of 32

Pass YAC

2,098

#6 of 32

Recv Air Yds

3,614

#26 of 32

Recv YAC

2,098

#6 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2025. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

101

#9 of 32

Penalty Yds

848

#16 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#6 of 32

Yds / Game

49.9

#16 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2025 vs 2024.


All Purpose Yds	7290	8882	1592
Kick Ret Yds	621	1842	1221
Rush Yds	2230	2714	484

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2021 through 2025. Trending up, down, or holding steady?


2021	151.1	78.3	+229.4
2022	156.4	10.9	+167.3
2023	167.0	15.2	+182.2
2024	221.4	-51.4	+170.0
2025	186.8	-33.7	+153.1

Last game — Week 18, 2025

W vs NYJ · 35–8

BUF covered.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2025.

Cmp %

69.5%

Pass Yds/G

216.6

#15

Pass Rating

102.1

Pass TD

Pass Int

#12

Sack Rate

7.5%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 17 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	17	12-5	8-9	47.1%	9-8	52.9%	+6.8	+0.6	31	+24.0
Home	9	7-2	4-5	44.4%	6-3	66.7%	+7.8	+1.2	27	+14.5
Away	8	5-3	4-4	50.0%	3-5	37.5%	+5.8	-0.1	31	+24.0
As favorite	15	10-5	6-9	40.0%	8-7	53.3%	+7.2	-0.1	31	+24.0
As underdog	2	2-0	2-0	—	1-1	—	+4.0	+6.0	7	+9.5
Division games	6	4-2	3-3	50.0%	3-3	50.0%	+6.8	-1.4	27	+14.5
Non-division	11	8-3	5-6	45.5%	6-5	54.5%	+6.8	+1.7	31	+24.0
Pick-em (≤3)	5	4-1	4-1	80.0%	2-3	40.0%	+6.0	+5.1	19	+16.0
Small favorite (3-7)	5	3-2	2-3	40.0%	2-3	40.0%	+4.6	-0.8	20	+14.0
Large favorite (7+)	7	5-2	2-5	28.6%	5-2	71.4%	+9.0	-1.6	31	+24.0

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2025. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


NYJ	New York Jets	2	2-0	2-0	1-1	+23.5	+14.2
MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	1-1	0-2	1-1	-3.5	-14.0
NE	New England Patriots	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	+0.5	-4.5
BAL	Baltimore Ravens	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+1.0	+2.5
NO	New Orleans Saints	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	+12.0	-3.5
ATL	Atlanta Falcons	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-10.0	-13.5
CAR	Carolina Panthers	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+31.0	+24.0
KC	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+7.0	+9.5
TB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+12.0	+6.0
HOU	Houston Texans	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-4.0	-9.5
PIT	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+19.0	+16.0
CIN	Cincinnati Bengals	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	+5.0	-1.0
CLE	Cleveland Browns	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	+3.0	-7.5
PHI	Philadelphia Eagles	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-1.0	-4.0

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	4	4-0	2-2	3-1	50%
Oct	3	1-2	1-2	1-2	33%
Nov	5	3-2	3-2	1-4	60%
Dec	4	3-1	1-3	3-1	25%
Jan	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Thu	2	1-1	0-2	1-1	0%
Sun	14	11-3	8-6	8-6	57%
Mon	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	8	6-2	4-4	4-4	50%
Second half (W10+)	9	6-3	4-5	5-4	44%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	4	3-1	2-2	2-2	50%
Turf	13	9-4	6-7	7-6	46%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	4-2	3-3	3-3	50%
Same conference	6	5-1	3-3	3-3	50%
Inter-conference	5	3-2	2-3	3-2	40%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	7	6-1	4-3	5-2	57%
Cool (40-59°F)	2	2-0	2-0	1-1	100%
Mild (60-74°F)	4	3-1	1-3	3-1	25%
Warm (75°F+)	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	50%
Indoor	2	0-2	0-2	0-2	0%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	50%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	10	8-2	5-5	7-3	50%
Windy (≥15 mph)	3	3-0	2-1	2-1	67%
Indoor	2	0-2	0-2	0-2	0%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	W	1
ATS	W	1
O/U	O	1

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	4
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	2
Longest ATS no-cover	4
Longest O streak	3
Longest U streak	2

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	11	7-4	3-8	5-6	27%
After a loss	5	4-1	4-1	3-2	80%
On 2+ winning streak	7	4-3	1-6	4-3	14%
On 2+ losing streak	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%
vs winning opp.	6	5-1	5-1	3-3	83%
vs losing opp.	7	6-1	2-5	5-2	29%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	15	12-3	8-7	9-6	53%
Retractable (closed)	2	0-2	0-2	0-2	0%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	9	7-2	4-5	6-3	44%
Domestic road	8	5-3	4-4	3-5	50%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	9	7-2	4-5	6-3	44%
Short (<500)	4	4-0	3-1	2-2	75%
Medium (500-1500)	4	1-3	1-3	1-3	25%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Short week (3-4d)	2	1-1	0-2	1-1	0%
Standard (5-7d)	10	7-3	5-5	5-5	50%
Long week (8-10d)	3	2-1	1-2	1-2	33%
Bye+ (11+d)	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 2-24 G

OctATS 1-23 G

NovATS 3-25 G

DecATS 1-34 G

JanATS 1-01 G

By day of week

ThuATS 0-22 G

SunATS 8-614 G

MonATS 0-11 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 4-48 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 4-59 G

By surface

GrassATS 2-24 G

TurfATS 6-713 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 3-36 G

Same conferenceATS 3-36 G

Inter-conferenceATS 2-35 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 8-715 G

Retractable (closed)ATS 0-22 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 4-59 G

Domestic roadATS 4-48 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 4-59 G

Short (<500)ATS 3-14 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 1-34 G

By rest days

Short week (3-4d)ATS 0-22 G

Standard (5-7d)ATS 5-510 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 1-23 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 1-01 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 1-23 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 3-14 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 2-24 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 2-46 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 9.7 ptsBias +0.6 pts (Vegas priced this team accurately)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	12-5	0.471 #27	28.3	21.5	186.79	-33.70
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	7-10	0.488 #22	20.4	24.9	17.51	-121.82
New England Patriots (NE)	14-3	0.391 #32	28.8	18.8	195.86	2.74
New York Jets (NYJ)	3-14	0.552 #3	17.6	29.6	-104.52	-176.95

Insights

A look at how the 2025 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: defensive avg yac allowed (1st of 32), defensive yac over expected allowed (1st of 32), and offensive epa per rush (2nd of 32). Weaknesses: defensive ryoe per attempt allowed (32nd of 32), defensive yards after contact per carry allowed (31st of 32), and defensive avg time to pressure (30th of 32).

Rivalries

Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins have met 16 times in the regular season. Buffalo Bills leads the series 13 to 3. The most lopsided meeting was a 35-point win for Buffalo Bills in 2021.
Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots have met 16 times in the regular season. The series is even at 8 apiece. The most lopsided meeting was a 29-point win for Buffalo Bills in 2020.
Buffalo Bills and New York Jets have met 16 times in the regular season. Buffalo Bills leads the series 12 to 4. The most lopsided meeting was a 31-point win for Buffalo Bills in 2018.

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Rivalries

Other teams in AFC East

Neighboring teams in Power Rankings