What Rec EPA is

Receiving EPA: expected points added on the team's receptions — each catch valued by how much it changed the chance of scoring, given the situation. The receivers' share of situation-aware passing production.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the Patriots led at 14.51; the league average was 5.82.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

NE · 14.51

League average

5.82

Best to worst

17.57

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NE	14.51	17
2	DET	11.83	17
3	LAR	11.69	17
4	GB	10.85	17
5	BUF	9.51	17
6	SF	9.48	17
7	DAL	9.48	17
8	ARI	8.06	17
9	SEA	7.86	17
10	CHI	7.31	17
11	DEN	6.56	17
12	JAX	6.49	17
13	KC	6.43	17
14	IND	6.22	17
15	HOU	5.87	17
16	PHI	5.72	17
17	PIT	5.38	17
18	WAS	5.01	17
19	LAC	4.99	17
20	NYG	4.85	17
21	BAL	4.47	17
22	CAR	4.27	17
23	CIN	3.96	17
24	MIA	3.91	17
25	ATL	3.84	17
26	TB	3.73	17
27	NO	3.25	17
28	MIN	1.55	17
29	LV	1.10	17
30	TEN	0.72	17
31	NYJ	0.41	17
32	CLE	-3.06	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NE · 14.51

League laggard

CLE · -3.06

League average

5.82

Spread (max − min)

17.57

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NE	14.51	8.69	100%
2	DET	11.83	6.01	96.8%
3	LAR	11.69	5.87	93.5%
4	GB	10.85	5.03	90.3%
5	BUF	9.51	3.69	87.1%
6	SF	9.48	3.66	83.9%
7	DAL	9.48	3.66	80.6%
8	ARI	8.06	2.24	77.4%
9	SEA	7.86	2.04	74.2%
10	CHI	7.31	1.49	71%
11	DEN	6.56	0.74	67.7%
12	JAX	6.49	0.67	64.5%
13	KC	6.43	0.61	61.3%
14	IND	6.22	0.40	58.1%
15	HOU	5.87	0.05	54.8%
16	PHI	5.72	-0.10	51.6%
17	PIT	5.38	-0.44	48.4%
18	WAS	5.01	-0.81	45.2%
19	LAC	4.99	-0.83	41.9%
20	NYG	4.85	-0.97	38.7%
21	BAL	4.47	-1.35	35.5%
22	CAR	4.27	-1.55	32.3%
23	CIN	3.96	-1.86	29%
24	MIA	3.91	-1.91	25.8%
25	ATL	3.84	-1.97	22.6%
26	TB	3.73	-2.09	19.4%
27	NO	3.25	-2.57	16.1%
28	MIN	1.55	-4.27	12.9%
29	LV	1.10	-4.72	9.7%
30	TEN	0.72	-5.10	6.5%
31	NYJ	0.41	-5.41	3.2%
32	CLE	-3.06	-8.88	0%

Does Rec EPA matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 876–702–37 ATS (55.5%) across 2020–2025, #58 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (158–105, 60.1%); its worst 2020 (135–119, 53.1%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	135–119–2	53.1%
2021	272	147–123–2	54.4%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	158–105–9	60.1%
2025	272	146–123–3	54.3%

Rec EPA in 2025 vs 2024

Patriots lead at 14.51 — they ranked #25 last year. Browns are last at -3.06 — #32 last year.

The league average is 5.82, down 0.39 from 6.21 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #25 → #1. Biggest faller: Buccaneers, #4 → #26.

Spread between first and last: 17.57; 20 teams are within 3.66 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NE · +10.65

Biggest faller

CIN · −9.02

Most consistent

BUF · −0.64

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▼ -0.39

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	NE	14.51	3.86	+10.65
2	DAL	9.48	0.80	+8.68
3	LAR	11.69	6.05	+5.63
4	IND	6.22	2.05	+4.17
5	GB	10.85	7.01	+3.84
6	NYG	4.85	1.71	+3.14
7	CAR	4.27	1.68	+2.59
8	CHI	7.31	4.78	+2.53
9	JAX	6.49	4.02	+2.48
10	DEN	6.56	4.48	+2.08
11	SEA	7.86	5.84	+2.02
12	ARI	8.06	6.45	+1.61
13	NO	3.25	1.70	+1.56
14	SF	9.48	8.04	+1.44
15	HOU	5.87	5.21	+0.66
16	BUF	9.51	10.15	−0.64
17	CLE	-3.06	-2.21	−0.85
18	PIT	5.38	6.31	−0.93
19	TEN	0.72	1.84	−1.12
20	KC	6.43	8.02	−1.59
21	DET	11.83	13.87	−2.04
22	ATL	3.84	6.13	−2.28
23	LAC	4.99	7.80	−2.81
24	LV	1.10	4.24	−3.13
25	PHI	5.72	9.88	−4.16
26	WAS	5.01	9.25	−4.24
27	MIA	3.91	8.30	−4.39
28	NYJ	0.41	5.37	−4.95
29	TB	3.73	10.61	−6.88
30	MIN	1.55	9.71	−8.16
31	BAL	4.47	12.91	−8.44
32	CIN	3.96	12.98	−9.02

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 10.20

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 2.43

Biggest improver

DET · +1.71/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −1.90/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	10.20	+1.71	6.71	3.93	9.71	9.29	13.87	11.83	16.05
2	BUF	10.12	−0.12	14.23	7.68	9.51	8.12	10.15	9.51	11.64
3	KC	10.06	−1.10	14.99	11.75	13.94	5.04	8.02	6.43	10.23
4	SF	10.02	+0.57	8.38	9.11	8.98	12.40	8.04	9.48	13.76
5	GB	8.95	−0.60	14.15	10.89	3.80	8.44	7.01	10.85	7.52
6	CIN	8.60	−0.04	5.59	10.87	10.83	6.79	12.98	3.96	9.16
7	DAL	7.60	+0.38	5.33	11.18	4.29	10.98	0.80	9.48	11.14
8	LAR	7.43	+0.48	5.54	10.74	2.73	6.97	6.05	11.69	8.25
9	BAL	7.15	+0.87	5.76	5.37	2.08	8.56	12.91	4.47	10.91
10	TB	6.98	−1.34	10.46	10.96	5.28	6.79	10.61	3.73	1.03
11	SEA	6.93	−0.44	10.81	5.95	5.55	7.17	5.84	7.86	5.33
12	MIN	6.89	−1.18	11.10	7.66	8.33	6.18	9.71	1.55	3.68
13	LAC	6.14	−1.22	8.89	9.79	5.72	5.79	7.80	4.99	-0.03
14	HOU	6.03	+0.32	13.43	0.96	-1.88	7.80	5.21	5.87	10.82
15	PHI	5.82	−0.09	2.48	6.09	8.06	7.27	9.88	5.72	1.24
16	JAX	5.71	+1.13	3.84	0.67	8.49	4.50	4.02	6.49	11.96
17	MIA	5.71	−0.71	5.68	4.69	8.20	9.64	8.30	3.91	-0.47
18	LV	5.38	−0.45	8.81	6.86	5.02	2.98	4.24	1.10	8.68
19	NE	5.23	+1.26	2.37	7.10	3.38	-3.69	3.86	14.51	9.08
20	NO	4.98	−0.43	8.81	3.70	5.00	6.23	1.70	3.25	6.20
21	ARI	4.92	+0.02	5.49	9.51	0.70	-0.57	6.45	8.06	4.77
22	ATL	4.35	−0.66	9.59	3.27	3.50	2.00	6.13	3.84	2.15
23	IND	4.18	−0.64	8.16	5.95	0.19	5.35	2.05	6.22	1.37
24	DEN	4.11	+0.27	0.46	6.72	2.79	5.30	4.48	6.56	2.48
25	WAS	4.09	+0.56	2.89	2.22	3.48	1.46	9.25	5.01	4.34
26	CAR	3.90	+1.51	5.31	-1.76	1.69	0.69	1.68	4.27	15.40
27	PIT	3.81	+0.28	4.91	0.70	3.96	1.83	6.31	5.38	3.62
28	TEN	3.77	−1.90	10.95	6.53	4.13	4.31	1.84	0.72	-2.12
29	CHI	3.70	+0.65	3.55	2.34	0.31	2.77	4.78	7.31	4.82
30	NYG	3.20	+0.69	3.50	-1.50	5.01	1.95	1.71	4.85	6.85
31	CLE	2.65	−1.27	9.90	5.26	4.20	-1.32	-2.21	-3.06	5.77
32	NYJ	2.43	+0.88	0.73	1.77	2.13	-2.16	5.37	0.41	8.77

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
NE	2.37	7.10	3.38	-3.69	3.86	14.51	9.08
DET	6.71	3.93	9.71	9.29	13.87	11.83	16.05
LAR	5.54	10.74	2.73	6.97	6.05	11.69	8.25
GB	14.15	10.89	3.80	8.44	7.01	10.85	7.52
BUF	14.23	7.68	9.51	8.12	10.15	9.51	11.64
SF	8.38	9.11	8.98	12.40	8.04	9.48	13.76
DAL	5.33	11.18	4.29	10.98	0.80	9.48	11.14
ARI	5.49	9.51	0.70	-0.57	6.45	8.06	4.77
SEA	10.81	5.95	5.55	7.17	5.84	7.86	5.33
CHI	3.55	2.34	0.31	2.77	4.78	7.31	4.82
DEN	0.46	6.72	2.79	5.30	4.48	6.56	2.48
JAX	3.84	0.67	8.49	4.50	4.02	6.49	11.96
KC	14.99	11.75	13.94	5.04	8.02	6.43	10.23
IND	8.16	5.95	0.19	5.35	2.05	6.22	1.37
HOU	13.43	0.96	-1.88	7.80	5.21	5.87	10.82
PHI	2.48	6.09	8.06	7.27	9.88	5.72	1.24
PIT	4.91	0.70	3.96	1.83	6.31	5.38	3.62
WAS	2.89	2.22	3.48	1.46	9.25	5.01	4.34
LAC	8.89	9.79	5.72	5.79	7.80	4.99	-0.03
NYG	3.50	-1.50	5.01	1.95	1.71	4.85	6.85
BAL	5.76	5.37	2.08	8.56	12.91	4.47	10.91
CAR	5.31	-1.76	1.69	0.69	1.68	4.27	15.40
CIN	5.59	10.87	10.83	6.79	12.98	3.96	9.16
MIA	5.68	4.69	8.20	9.64	8.30	3.91	-0.47
ATL	9.59	3.27	3.50	2.00	6.13	3.84	2.15
TB	10.46	10.96	5.28	6.79	10.61	3.73	1.03
NO	8.81	3.70	5.00	6.23	1.70	3.25	6.20
MIN	11.10	7.66	8.33	6.18	9.71	1.55	3.68
LV	8.81	6.86	5.02	2.98	4.24	1.10	8.68
TEN	10.95	6.53	4.13	4.31	1.84	0.72	-2.12
NYJ	0.73	1.77	2.13	-2.16	5.37	0.41	8.77
CLE	9.90	5.26	4.20	-1.32	-2.21	-3.06	5.77

Rec EPA since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (16.98), 2019 Chiefs (11.72), 2020 Chiefs (14.99), 2021 Chiefs (11.75), 2022 Chiefs (13.94), 2023 49ers (12.40), 2024 Lions (13.87), 2025 Patriots (14.51).

Chiefs have led this stat 5 of 8 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 16.98; the worst Patriots 2023 at -3.69.

The league average has fallen from 6.57 in 2018 to 5.82 in 2025.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

Related stats

About this stat

Stat ID: off_receiving_rec_epa
Side: offensive
Family: Receiving
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.