NFL 2024 – Week 1 Game Spreads & Predictions
NFL 2024 – WEEK 1 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions
Below are NFL 2024 Week 1 game predictions based on the 2023 week 18 power ratings with some simple adjustments.
- To attempt to adjust for free agent and draft gains/losses, a very simple adjustment was made to create the first 2024 power ratings:
- Teams rated 1 – 5 had two points deducted
- Teams rated 6 – 10 had one point deducted
- Teams rated 11 – 22 received no adjustment
- Teams rated 23 – 27 had one point added
- Teams rated 28 – 32 had two points added
- A home team added 3 points to their rating in all matchups, save neutral fields, where both teams used their base rating.
- Power ratings were compared to create a spread in each game. If a team is favored, the spread is shown as a positive number. If the team is the underdog, it is shown as a negative number.
The first 2024 Power Ratings using 2024 stats will be posted in week 3, when they are blend of 2023 and 2024 stats. In week 5, the power ratings will be based completely on 2024 stats.
Keep in mind that last year teams like NY Jets & Cincinnati were without premium QBs, while Minnesota lost one for 2024. Since these projections use 2023 power ratings, you may wish to adjust teams seeing a significant change in expected QB play.
| Date/Time | Home | Rating | Spread | Rating | Away | Vegas Spread | Algorithm Pick | Spread Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9/4 8:20pm
|
Kansas City | 106.06 | 0.14 | 106.20 | Baltimore | -3 | Baltimore | -3.14 |
|
9/5 8:15pm
|
Philadelphia | 100.54 | -0.71 | 99.83 | Green Bay | -2.5 | Green Bay | 1.79 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
Miami | 107.20 | -7.42 | 99.78 | Jacksonville | -3.5 | Miami | -3.92 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
Buffalo | 105.89 | -9.16 | 96.73 | Arizona | -6.5 | Buffalo | -2.66 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
Atlanta | 103.03 | -4.67 | 98.36 | Pittsburgh | -3 | Atlanta | -1.67 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
New Orleans | 103.7 | -8.07 | 95.63 | Carolina | -4 | New Orleans | -4.07 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
Chicago | 102.35 | -4.19 | 98.16 | Tennessee | -4 | Chicago | -0.19 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
NY Giants | 97.84 | 2.96 | 100.8 | Minnesota | 1.5 | Minnesota | 1.46 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
Cincinnati | 100.66 | -2.17 | 98.49 | New England | -8.5 | New England | 6.33 |
|
9/7 1:00pm
|
Indianapolis | 102.34 | -2.04 | 100.30 | Houston | 3 | Indianapolis | -5.04 |
|
9/7 4:05pm
|
Tampa Bay | 102.43 | -5.75 | 96.68 | Washington | -3 | Tampa Bay | -2.75 |
|
9/7 4:05pm
|
Seattle | 101.66 | -3.97 | 97.69 | Denver | -6 | Denver | 2.03 |
|
9/7 4:25pm
|
LA Chargers | 101.11 | -3.28 | 97.83 | Las Vegas | -3 | LA Chargers | -0.28 |
|
9/7 4:25pm
|
Cleveland | 103.73 | -0.77 | 102.96 | Dallas | -2.5 | Dallas | 1.73 |
|
9/7 8:15pm
|
Detroit | 104.49 | -3.43 | 101.06 | LA Rams | -3.5 | LA Rams | 0.07 |
|
9/8 8:20pm
|
San Francisco | 109.62 | -11.44 | 98.18 | NY Jets | -4 | San Francisco | -7.44 |
NFL 2024 – WEEK 1 Spreads & Picks
