NFL 2024 – Team Power Ratings & Win Prediction

NFL Analysis
September 2, 2024

NFL 2024 – AFC Team Win Projections, Game Predictions & Power Ratings

NFL 2024 – Team Win Projections

2024 NFL – AFC Power Ratings & Win Projections

To create the 2024 NFl team win projection the following methodology was used:

Use the nfllines.com 2023 NFL Power Ratings from Week 18. Final ratings were calculated for 2023 post week 18, but many games were inconsequential in the final week of the 2023 season. Thus the decision was to use the power ratings each team had after the end of week 17. The power rating algorithm had a record of 127 – 103 – 10 vs. Vegas spread in 2023.
To attempt to adjust for free agent and draft gains/losses, a very simple adjustment was made to create the first 2024 power ratings:
- Teams rated 1 – 5 had two points deducted
- Teams rated 6 – 10 had one point deducted
- Teams rated 11 – 22 received no adjustment
- Teams rated 23 – 27 had one point added
- Teams rated 28 – 32 had two points added
A home team added 3 points to their rating in all matchups, save neutral fields, where both teams used their base rating.
Power ratings were compared to create a spread in each game. If a team is favored, the spread is shown as a positive number. If the team is the underdog, it is shown as a negative number.
Wins are distributed as follows:
- If a spread fell between -3 and +3 points, each team received 0.5 wins
- If a spread fell between -7 to -3 OR +3 to +7, the favored team was give a full win in the 3 to 7 column
- If a spread was in excess of +7, the team favored was given a Pure Win.
- If a Spread was in excess of -7, a team was given a Pure Loss.
A teams final win total is the sum of (Pure Wins + Share of -3 to +3 wins + Wins in 3 to 7 games)
The value for Opp rating includes home field advantage points added to home teams. This means these Opp ratings are about 1.45 points higher than the teams actual rating. It is not exactly 1.5 points because the neutral games give neither team the 3 point home field advantage.

NFL Team Win Projection Chart

Each team has a chart showing:

Every week’s game matchup
The Opponent and location
Respective power ratings
The calculated spread
Wins
Losses
3 to 7 point games

At the bottom of the chart you will find information about:

Average opponent power rating
Average spread
Total Wins
Total Losses
Amount of 3 to 7 point games
Record in 3 to 7 point games
Record in -3 to 3 point games
Pure Wins total
Pure Losses total

Summary

Let’s start by saying that these projections are made using 2023 stats. New 2024 power ratings based on 2024 stats don’t appear until after week 2, and then they are still a blend of 2023 & 2024 stats through week 4.

The idea behind the adding or subtracting of +/- 1 to 2 points was to try to account for good teams not being able to keep all their best players, and bad teams getting the best players in the draft(in theory). This simple methodology avoids subjectivity and addresses the regression to the mean that all teams are beholden to.

Sharing a win, the 0.5 wins, in games in which the spread is between -3 to +3 is simply a reflection of how these games can go either way.

The thought behind the 3 to 7 column was that spreads of this size typically result in a favorite win, but underdogs cover and win outright a lot of these games. A team that is projected to go 7 – 0 in 3 to 7 games will in actuality probably lose 2 of those games, maybe 3. These win projections are strictly black and white, win/loss, with the exception of the -3 to +3 grey area.

Teams that sat on the edge of adjustment tiers, suffered or gained the most. For example, Green Bay was the 10th ranked team in Power Ratings so their power rating was adjusted down 1 point. But power ratings are so close in that 10 -18 range that they fell behind 5 teams they were ahead of (Browns, Saints, Eagles, Texans, Falcons), by losing a single rating point. Take that into account when reviewing their win projections.

Teams like the Jets and Bengals, who lost their high caliber starting QB for the entire, or most of, the season are saddled with their 2023 rating. If Rodgers and Burrow come back as their old selves, then you can basically throw out the Jets and Bengals win projections(or recalculate them using a reimagined power rating).

For example, let’s say that Aaron Rodgers is worth 3 rating points and add that to the NY Jets base Power Rating. Here is the NY Jets Team chart with Rodgers factored in. The NY Jets chart without Rodgers factored in predicts a record of 5.5 – 11.5 for the Jets. Factor in Rodgers as worth 3 points, and the projections change to a record of 10 – 7.

The big difference? They go from a record of 1 – 4 in 3 to 7 point games to 6 – 2.