NFL 2023 Team Grades Through 6 Weeks
NFL 2023 Team Grades Through 6 Weeks
Check out the Offense Grades – NFL 2023 Team Offense Grades Through 6 Weeks
Check out the Defense Grades – NFL 2023 Team Defense Grades Through 6 Weeks
With one third of the NFL 2023 season complete, it’s time to hand out 1st Trimester Grades for every NFL Team. Every team will be graded from A to F. In addition, we will highlight each team’s strength and weakness on offense & defense and compare them against the league average. You will find all the stats and tables used at the bottom of the article.
Above you can see a bubble chart that ranks every NFL team’s defense based on two parameters: Net Yards per Play & Net Expected Points.
- Net Yards per Play is simply a team’s offensive yards/play minus their defensive yards/play. Since football is essentially a game of territory and yards, it indicates whether the offense can overcome the territory the defense gives up over the long run.
- Net Expected Points(EP) is simply Offensive EP + Defensive EP. Since both Off & Def EP is a positive number when good, we can add them.
In addition you will find the power rating for each team and its power rank. But we are going to kick off the article with Playoff teams based on the first 6 week stats. These playoff projection are solely stat based and DO NOT take into account the team’s current record or remaining schedule.
The only bit of subjectivity was deciding between the Eagles & Cowboys for the winner of the NFC East and Bills/Dolphins for the AFC East. Regarding Miami/Buffalo, even though Buffalo won the 1st matchup easily, the stats cannot factor in the head to head win. It can, and does, factor in the stats from the head to head matchup, but it looks at the 6 weeks as an entirity, almost as one long game. Miami is ahead right now in both Net EP and Net Yards/play so they were given the division crown.
Reagrding Cowboys/Eagles, their EP rating are almost identical(DAL 45 PHI 42) and power ratings within a few tenths(DAL 103.25 PHI 103.07), but the Eagles have a 0.6 Net yard/play & the Cowboys -0.2. Thus the Eagles were chosen division champions. Based on the stats through week 6 alone, they would both be out in the next round anyway.
The big difference between the two division calls, is that the Miami Buffalo game determines seeds #1 & #5, while the Eagles/Cowboys game is most likely for the #2 or #3 & #5 seed. The subjectivity is deciding the bye in the AFC, while both the Eagles & Dallas would be playing in the opening round, albeit the Eagles at home and Dallas away. It’s week 6 and we are fantasizing, but still it is not great when a single subjective decision is such an important one in an objective, stat based exercise.
Without further ado, here are the projected playoff teams and the first 6 weeks grades for each NFL team.
The Playoffs
AFC Playoff Teams
- Miami (East)
- Kansas City (West)
- Baltimore (North)
- Jacksonville (South)
- Buffalo
- Cleveland
- Houston/L.A. Chargers
NFC Playoff Teams
- San Francisco (West)
- Detroit (North)
- Philadelphia (East)
- New Orleans (South)
- Dallas
- L.A. Rams
- Seattle/Minnesota
Based on the stats, Miami & San Francisco would earn the 1st round byes. The Chief, Ravens, & Jaguars would host 1st round games in the AFC, while Detroit, Philadelphia & New Orleans would host the NFC 1st round matchups. By stats through 6 weeks the championship games would be Kansas City at Miami, and Detroit would travel to San Fran.
Grade A
San Francisco 49ers Grade A+
- Net Expected Points: 125.12
- Net Yards/Play: 1.5
- Power Rating: 109.04 (1st)
Offense (Grade A) – Purdy’s 7.6 yrd/att is tremendous as is the nearly 50% scoring %. 6.0 yards per play will work all day long, home or away.
- Point For 184 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 78.34 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A) – The 49ers don’t blitz(20.3%) but they do hurry, knockdown and pressure QBs which speaks to their Defensive Line.
- Point Against 85 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 29.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 17.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 46.78 (avg -7.1)
Clearly the best NFC, the 49ers right now earn the top marks in the league. With a Grade A offense and a Grade A defense, there are few holes in the armor for opposing teams to exploit. In fact, the team with the best chance to beat San Fran is probably the next team on the list because they have an offense that is off the metrics chart. After that, probably only the Browns or Ravens can keep the Niners offense in check enough to stay in the game as the Niners defense is not going to be giving away points for free either.
Miami Dolphins Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 92.3
- Net Yards/Play: 2.8
- Power Rating: 106.67 (2nd)
Offense (Grade A+++) – The Dolphins are averaging over 3 points per drive and over 100 Expected Points.
- Point For 225 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 8.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 50%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 111 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C-) – The defense itself is pretty average in the primary metrics, but the expected point at -19 is not good.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -19.12 (avg -7.1)
The most dangerous team in the AFC and the NFL, the Dolphins offset an average defense with a extremely potent offense. You can see their NEt EP isnt close to the 49ers, but their Net Yards/Play is completely off the chart. This is due to the explosive offense that seemingly scores at will. A teacher would be hard pressed to give a student an A when the two grades they received are A+++ and C-, but when you can score 40 points at will you can put The Sisters of the Poor on defense and still win most games.
Buffalo Bills Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 83.52
- Net Yards/Play: 0.5
- Power Rating: 106.03 (3rd)
Offense (Grade A) – Yards/play and pass yards/attempt are both identical to San Fran and the scoring% is within 2%.
- Point For 173 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 46%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 69.23 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B) – The Bills don’t give up a lot of points, but their defensive metrics are a bit dodgy. The most dodgy is the 5.4 yards/rush attempt which is really quite bad.
- Point Against 89 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 26.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 20.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 14.29 (avg -7.1)
The only thing missing from the Bills claim to the top 2 spots is the questionable run defense. I am not sure how that plays out in Buffalo in Dec & Jan. They have also created a lot of turnovers on defense which could be helping the B grade on defense. If they are actually worse than a B on defense, it would not bode well for them for a deep run in the playoffs. They also have the issue of Miami in the division which could mean 12 wins gets them the #5 seed for the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs Grade A-
- Net Expected Points: 72.59
- Net Yards/Play: 1.0
- Power Rating: 105.24 (4th)
Offense (Grade B) – The Chiefs, like a few other teams, have a good to great offense that is being bogged down by turnovers.
- Point For 147 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 46.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 50.69 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B+) – 88 points against, 4.7 yards/play, 9 turnovers created. The only blemish is the 4.5 yards/rush metric which is above league average.
- Point Against 88 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 28.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 21.9 (avg -7.1)
The Chiefs look to be a final 4 team based on the metrics. The offense is very good, albeit with an average run game. The defense is very good, the one exception of rush defense which is slightly under par. It all point to, you don’t want to pass against the Chiefs, and you don’t want the Chiefs to pass on you. Best hope? Bad weather which negates or minimizes the pass game effectiveness and turn it into a ground war. Hoping for wind and rain isn’t much of a game plan, but it may be the best way to beat the Chiefs on both sides of the ball.
Detroit Lions Grade A-
- Net Expected Points: 64.62
- Net Yards/Play: 1.1
- Power Rating: 104.67 (5th)
Offense (Grade B) – Love the net yards per pass attempt at 7.3 and 6 turnovers is a number you can live with when putting up 28 pts/game.
- Point For 168 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 39.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 47.14 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B+) – But this defense does everything well, starting with the paltry 3.3 yards/rush metric that is outstanding and forces opponents into almost being one dimensional.
- Point Against 113 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 32.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 17.48 (avg -7.1)
I think the Lions may be a B+ team, but after decades of waiting to be relevent I am going to give them a few teacher’s pet points and bump the grade up to a long sought A-. The offense is solid. The passing game is well oiled. The defensive line is productive. The all around defense has been just short of excellent. Would it be great if the running game was better, sure. But coming from where the Lions have been for years and years, this is a team of hope that can deliver some measure of salvation to a long suffering fan base.
Grade B
Baltimore Ravens Grade B+
- Net Expected Points: 55.97
- Net Yards/Play: 1.2
- Power Rating: 104.04 (6th)
Offense (Grade C) – Yards/play at 5.9 is very good. Yards/pas att and rush attempt are both above league average. 9 turnovers doesn’t help but with the Ravens defense, this type of production is enough to get them to the Playoffs.
- Point For 133 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 35.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 2.31 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A+) – The Ravens are neck and neck with the Browns for best defense so far in 2023. Causing 8 turnovers helps the cause, and they are slightly better against the pass than the Browns.
- Point Against 91 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 30%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 53.66 (avg -7.1)
If the Ravens offense comes around to the level of the Ravens defense, everyone is in serious trouble. Only the Browns can claim to have a better defense, and we know that running games travel in outdoor winter games. Jackson is the ultimate QB rushing weapon. If he can clean up his accuracy while on the run, there are going to be very few ways to stop him and the Raven offense. Meanwhile a defense that can limit any opponent to 10-14 points will give the offense the chance to win almost every game.
Philadelphia Eagles Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 42.52
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6
- Power Rating: 103.07 (8th)
Offense (Grade B) – The rush yards/att might be slightly lower due to the amount of Push Tush plays, but the 6.5 yards/pass attempt show more of a short/medium pass attack than the explosive plays the Eagles were making last year.
- Point For 155 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 47.05 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – The Eagles are above average against both the run and pass, leading to above average in yards/play. But points against, turnovers, and scoring% are all average, as is Expected Points at -5.
- Point Against 124 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 33.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -4.93 (avg -7.1)
I don’t know if it is Superbowl malaise but the Eagles just seem to be a good team going through the motions through 6 weeks. They appear as if they feel they can turn it on and get back to the NFC Championship game by going through the motions and relying on their talent level. However the offense is a notch below what it was last year, and the defense is dealing with age, injuries and a new coordinator. The Eagles will get back to the playoffs, but in current form they won’t go very far.
Dallas Cowboys Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 45.04
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2
- Power Rating: 103.25 (7th)
Offense (Grade C) – Yards/play below average. Yards/pass att, below average. Rush yards/att, below average. And they have only turned the ball over 5 times.
- Point For 134 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 44.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 8.05 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A) – Only 83 points allowed, but yards/play, yards/pass, and rush/attempt are all at or above league average. Clearly the turnovers have been helping this defense, causing 11 so far this year. However if the turnovers stop coming, the defense looks fairly average metrics wise.
- Point Against 83 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 26.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 36.99 (avg -7.1)
There is a chance I am seeing ghosts on the Cowboys defense, but metrics wise it isn’t as dominant as it appeared to be in the first few weeks of the season. The Cowboys are the first team with a negative Net Yards/play at -0.2. This points to one of two things: Either the Cowboys defense is excellent and their offense is above average, or the defense is good and the offense is average. Those are really the only two ways to get to a negative Net yds/play if the defense is not the issue. If the offense comes around and the defense is excellent, this could be a good year to be a Cowboys fan.
Los Angeles Rams Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 37.13
- Net Yards/Play: 0.4
- Power Rating: 102.68 (9th)
Offense (Grade B) – The Rams are the perfect Grade B Offense. At, or above, league average on every metric, while keeping the turnovers to just 6.
- Point For 138 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 48.94 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – They are slightly worse than the Packers against the pass, but are also not generating turnovers and are just average against the run. The Expected Points at -12 is also slightly below average. Everything here points to average.
- Point Against 117 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 39.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -11.81 (avg -7.1)
I didn’t think the Rams were going to be as good as they are on both sides of the ball. The offense is good, performing above average in almost every metric. The defense is average without a glaring weakness. This might be one of McVay’s better coaching efforts and the front office and scouting should get a tip of the cap for the rookie contributions they have gotten. I don’t think the Rams are a team built to go deep into the playoffs, but it would be a great achievement to get there this year, and right now if they simply hold course, they will probably get in.
New Orleans Saints Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 26.16
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0
- Power Rating: 101.89 (10th)
Offense (Grade C-) – I can’t see the Saints going anywhere with this offense but they play in an awful division that someone has to win. If you are a Saints fan I guess this is the hope you can cling to because your offense basically stinks.
- Point For 109 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 31.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -9.26 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A) – I kind of mocked your offense by saying it basically stinks. But your defense is another story. It is fair to say it has been better than the Cowboys with better metrics in Yards/play, yards/pass and rush/attempt.
- Point Against 96 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 29.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 13.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 35.42 (avg -7.1)
The Saints are the classic case of how far can you go when one side of the ball is excellent and the other side of the ball is bordering on poor. The defense is top 5. The offense is bottom 10. The 0.0 Net Yards/play is not a sign that they can go out and beat good opponents. The power rating has them as about 2 points better than an average team(100). Assuming they win the division, they probably get Eagles or Cowboys in round 1 and go out right away. Playoffs are always nice, but just showing up to be shown the door means an average/late draft position that isn’t as likely to push them to the next level.
Jacksonville Jaguars Grade B-
- Net Expected Points: 16.53
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6
- Power Rating: 101.19 (11th)
Offense (Grade C) – But 4.9 yards/play, 3.8 yards/rush, -2 expected points….These are not the calling card of an offensive guru at work.
- Point For 149 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 35.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -2.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B+) – I kind of got on Peterson for the Jags offense, but he deserves credit for the Jags defense. They arent all that great against the pass, but they are pretty stout against the run as shown by the 3.6 yards/rush metric.
- Point Against 122 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 15 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 27.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 20.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 18.68 (avg -7.1)
The Jags need to get the offense up to the same level as the defense. Most would have assumed with Peterson and Lawrence, the offensive side of the ball would be the side that carries the team and looks more polished. That has hardly been the case. It has been the Jags defense that has garnered and deserved the spotlight thus far, causing 15 turnovers already. Can all the turnovers be making the Jags defense look better than it really is, sure(see net yards/play of -0.6). All the other metrics are above average meaning if the turnovers dry up, the Jags could be giving up a lot more points and yards on D.
Grade C
Seattle Seahawks Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 13.75
- Net Yards/Play: 0.5
- Power Rating: 100.99 (12th)
Offense (Grade C+) – The 3 turnovers are tied for 2nd best which is great. But start to look at everything else and it’s like white bread without any crust. Yards/play, Yards/pass attempt, Rush yards/att, all sit almost right on league average.
- Point For 124 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 40.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 5.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 14.69 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C+) – The Seahawks appears to be a fairly average defense that is stout against the run. Everything about their primary metrics is pretty average with the good run defense helping the overall yards/play metric.
- Point Against 109 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 36.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -0.94 (avg -7.1)
The Seahawks got a C+ on offense, a C+ on defense and, lo and behold, a C+ as a team. The are one point better than an average team according to power rankings. Net expected points is 13, while net yards/play is 0.5. The only worry is that the turnovers catch up with them, they have only 3 so far as an offense, and the C+ offense starts to deteriorate into a C- offense. The playoff projections have the Seahawks battling the Vikings and Rams for the last slots. Seattle really can’t afford to have much go wrong and still get in the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 7.98
- Net Yards/Play: 0.7
- Power Rating: 100.58 (15th)
Offense (Grade F+) – 4.5 yards/pass attempt is terrible. 4.5 yards per play is terrible. 12 turnovers is awful. The running game and a scoring% in the low 30’s is the only thing keeping the Browns in games if their defense decides to give up a point or two, which they don’t very often.
- Point For 95 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 31.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 18.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -49.03 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A+) – The Browns are killing it on defense. And they are doing it without causing any turnovers, just 4 so far this season. But all the other metrics are ridiculous: 15.5 pts/game, 3.8 yards/play, 4.1 yards/pass att, 3.5 yards per/rush, 18.8% scoring% and 57 Expected Points.
- Point Against 77 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 3.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 18.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 6.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 57.01 (avg -7.1)
The Browns are the Jekyll & Hyde of the NFL. An F+ offense, and an A+ defense. If the offense can find a way to score 17 points on Sundays they are going to win 9-10 games. If they don’t, they are going to win 6-8. If any team should be looking for help at the trade deadline it should be the Browns. They need some kind of juice on offense or they are going to waste a legendary season by their staunch defense.
Houston Texans Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 11.81
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1
- Power Rating: 100.85 (13th)
Offense (Grade B+) – The surprise is a robust 6.8 net yards/pass attempt, so CJ Stroud looks to be the right pick. He’s getting the ball downfield and protecting the football, two things rookie QB’s normally have issues with. The worry? A paltry 3.2 yards/rush attempt.
- Point For 135 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 42.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 32.78 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C-) – Expected points at -21 is not good, but I am not too worried as DeMeco Ryans is a defensive guy and he just might not have the players he needs on defense yet to build the kind of defense he wants.
- Point Against 113 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 33.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -20.97 (avg -7.1)
The Texans are overachieving to the point of being a playoff contender through 6 weeks. They can’t run the ball at all, 3.2yards/carry, and they haven’t turned the ball over, only 3. Stroud has been a stud, but laying it all on his shoulders and expecting no turnovers is really living on the edge as an offense. Defensively the Texans have been below average, but opportunistic. A pessimist says the turnover even out and the offense and defense both get worse. The optimist says, you didnt expect what they have done so far so why not just watch and see what happens. Maybe it is their year to win a division through sheer grit and determination.
Los Angeles Chargers Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 9.32
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1
- Power Rating: 100.67 (14th)
Offense (Grade B) – I am a bit worried about the Chargers. 22 points per game is average. 4.2 yards/rush is average. However only 2 turnovers is not average, it is best in the league. It is the fact that the Chargers have been so middling, with almost no turnovers, is the worry.
- Point For 110(avg 125)[5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 2 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 43.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 45.70 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – I am not quite sure who is calling the defense for the Chargers, but I would have to guess every defensive play call is a run stuffer. The Chargers are slightly, very slightly, above average stopping the run. But why would you run when they give up 6.9 yards/pass attempt?
- Point Against 104 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 43.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 15.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -36.38 (avg -7.1)
Everything about the Chargers is an enigma wrapped in a mystery stuffed into a Crackerjack Box that falls apart at the most inopportune time. I wish I didnt have to say this, but the Chargers have an awful habit of losing and giving up leads. They perform their worst on the biggest stage. The defense seems intent on giving up yards faster than any offense can offset it as the negative 0.1 yards/play shows. The offense has done above average work while turning the ball over only twice so far, but the end result is a meager 20 points a game. Can they sneak into the playoffs? Yes. Can they cough up the opportunity and end up sitting at home in January, most assuredly yes. It would be nice to see them shake whatever voodoo is causing this and give their fans, all 6 of them in L.A., something to cheer about.
Minnesota Vikings Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -0.61
- Net Yards/Play: 0.7
- Power Rating: 99.96 (16th)
Offense (Grade C+) – The absolute killer and bottom line on the Vikings offense has been the turnovers, 13 of them to lead the league. The 32.8% scoring % is low, but when factoring in all the turnovers, it actually shows that the Vikings can be a Grade B offense when they hold onto the football.
- Point For 129 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 32.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 11.91 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – I am not sure the Vikings defense is that bad, just that they have been on the field too often given the offense’s penchant for turning the ball over. This has led to some short fields and easy points against this defense.
- Point Against 135 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.4% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -12.52 (avg -7.1)
By power ratings, the Vikings are the most average team sporting a 99.96 power rating, a mere 4/100 away from being perfectly average. It shouldn’t be a big surprise when your offense gets a Grade C+, and your defense gets a C. The Vikings have been disappointing record wise, but the metrics favor them. The 0.7 net yards/play is eveidence of a good defense making up for a volatile and clumbsy offense. Even so the offense is putting up yards, they just put the ball on the ground way too much, 13 turnovers in all. If the offense holds on to the ball and the defense can get a rest and play against a long field behind them, the Vikings can pass their way into the playoffs, most likely to be knocked out in the first game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -4.9
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 99.65 (17th)
Offense (Grade C) – Well Baker hasn’t been bad. 6.3 yards/pass attempt means he is getting it downfield and completing balls to someone. 4 turnovers means he is protecting the ball much better than he ever did. But the 4.8 yards/play is hampered by the abyssmal 3.0 yards/rush.
- Point For 90 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -4.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C+) – Average against the pass, good against the run. They are causing turnovers and not giving up many points. Most of these primary metrics would probably point to a better grade.
- Point Against 88 (avg 125) [5games]
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -0.75 (avg -7.1)
The Bucs are the first team considered “out” of the playoff mix. The sit 17th in power rating, -4.9 net expected points, -0.3 net yards/play. The offense is average with only 4 turnovers. The defense is a tick above average and are creating turnovers, 10 so far. It just seems that the Bucs offense doesn’t score enough, and the defense gives up just a little too much. And 3.0 yards per rush attempt is pitiful. Could they sneak into the playoffs, I guess. But they may be better off missing the playoffs and restocking with a better draft position.
Green Bay Packers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -8.59
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0
- Power Rating:99.38 (18th)
Offense (Grade C) – The Packers probably earned their Grade C is the first few games, because they haven’t been even average of the last few games. 4.9 yards/pay, 3.5 rush yards/attempt are both below par.
- Point For 113 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 33.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 2.30 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – The Packers defense doesn’t look that bad on the primary metrics. They aren’t creating turnovers which can’t be helping, but they are average or better against the run and pass.
- Point Against 113 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 38.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.1% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -10.89 (avg -7.1)
The Packers issue is that they have no idea what they have on offense or at QB. Do they have the Jordan Love of games 1 and 2, or do they have the Jordan Love of games 4 & 5? The fact they can’t run the ball well cannot be helping ease Love into a rhythm in his first year at the helm. The defense is hanging in there without the help of a lot of turnovers, just 5 so far. With the early Love at QB, the Packers can grab the 6 or 7 seed. With recent Love, the Packers will win 6-7 games.
Atlanta Falcons Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -15.89
- Net Yards/Play: 0.3
- Power Rating: 98.85 (19th)
Offense (Grade D+) – The Falcons are simply below average at just about everything offensively. I am not sure Ridder is an NFL starting QB, and most of the metrics would seem to support that conclusion. Yards/play, pass yard/att, and turnovers are all below average, much of it falling back on the QB performance.
- Point For 99 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 29.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -20.34 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B-) – The Falcons defense appears to be good at everything save one thing, creating turnovers. Yards/play is a healthy 4.7, yards/pass is 5.5, rush/attempt is 3.7….but the lack of turnovers is just hurting the units grade.
- Point Against 120 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 4.45 (avg -7.1)
The good news, the 0.3 net yards/play is evidence of a hard working and solid defense. The bad news, the Falcons have an issue at QB. Unless the light bulb goes on pretty quickly, Ridder is going to wash out as a starter. Heinicke is sitting there waiting to pick up the pieces, but he is probably an 8 win ceiling type of QB. The defense is fairly solid but isn’t creating turnovers and short fields for the hampered offense. Most disconcerning is how head coach Arthur Smith often looks befuddled by what his offense is doing on the field. If he doesn’t seem to know what is going on out there how can the rest of us.
Indianapolis Colts Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -21.4
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0
- Power Rating: 98.45 (21st)
Offense (Grade C-) – The Colts metrics look much better than the final product appears to be. They score points, but are literally average in every other important metric: yards/play 5.1, yards/pass 5.8, rush/attempt 4.2, scoring% 34.7%.
- Point For 140(avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11.1% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -6.91 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – It would appear that the Colts are giving up points because they have a leaky pass defense, 6.3 yards/pass attempt. There are good against the run and they are creating some turnovers with 8.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 38.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -14.49 (avg -7.1)
The Colts are just good enough to give teams problems and just bad enough to give themselves problems. The offense isn’t terrible, especially considering the combo of a rookie and the moustache as the QBs and no Jonathon Taylor. Pass defense seems to be the bugaboo of the defense, but it is serviceable enough to keep the Colts in games most of the time. There is just no pizazz or anyone to be really afraid of when scheming against the Colts. If you are a good team it seems you can use the NFL generic game plan against them and beat them by 7 points.
Tennessee Titans Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -20.28
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 98.54 (20th)
Offense (Grade C+) – Not really sure why I am giving the Titans a C+, as they seem more C or even C- when you watch them. They dont score many points, their yards/play is below average as is their passing game.
- Point For 104 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 40%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 12.09 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The Titans simply cannot defend the pass. They are good against the run, but do not create turnovers and allow a 45% scoring % to opponents.
- Point Against 117 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 45%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 6.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -32.37 (avg -7.1)
The Titans could be a Grade D masquerading as a Grade C- team. They look old and slow, and all of the metrics are below average save a few. I am not sure how they win games with Tannehill at QB this season. He looks as if Father Time caught up to him, passed him, then slowed down just to mock him. Henry is still a stud, but the mileage is getting high on his tires. Now the defense has decided to take a turn for the worse giving up nearly 7 yards/pass attempt. This looks like a 6-7 win team if things go right.
Pittsburgh Steelers Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -24.31
- Net Yards/Play: -1.1
- Power Rating: 98.24 (22nd)
Offense (Grade D-) – Well the Kenny Pickett revolution seems to be on hold in Pitsburgh for the time being. This is not all Pickett’s fault as yards/pass attempt is one of the Steelers better, poor metrics at 5.3 yards/attempt. He has also kept the turnovers down to just 6. What the Steelers cannot do is run the ball.
- Point For 79 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 25%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -38.37 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B) – The Pittsburgh Steelers play good defense. You could probably have written that sentence every year for the past 50 years and been correct 95% of the time. Their run defense is a bit leaky(4.8 yards/rush), but the pass defense is solid and they create turnovers.
- Point Against 110 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.6(avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 18% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 14.06 (avg -7.1)
Net yards/play of -1.1 with a good defense tells you how far down the Steelers offense has stooped this season. Pickett has regressed, the running game has regressed. Tomlin’s hairline has had to regress watching the QB play and characters running the offensive ship. Mason Rudolph & Devlin Hodges were never going to the Pro Bowl, but they didnt cost a first round pick or the money Pickett is getting for doing the same mediocre job. The defense is doing its normal thing but it is asking a lot of them to hang with the Ravens and Browns with no help from their offense. If the Bengals turn it around, the Steelers are going to be the 6 win team at the bottom of this division somehow.
New York Jets Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -27.77
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2
- Power Rating: 97.99 (23rd)
Offense (Grade D) – Look, if you are the Jets, a Jets coach, a Jets player, or a Jets fan, you need to face reality. You can run the ball with the best teams; 5.2 yards/attempt. But you are pitiful trying to pass; 4.7 pass yards/attempt. And you try passing too often which is killing your yards/play which sits at 4.9.
- Point For 113 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 32.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -29.69 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B-) – Yards per pass attempt are 5.7, just below the league average of 5.9. Yards/play at 5.1, just below league average of 5.2. Scoring% right on average, Rush/attempt a little above average. Points Against 131, above average. Where the Jets have been feasting is turnovers with 13.
- Point Against 131 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 36.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 17.4% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 1.92 (avg -7.1)
The Jets seem to drink for two water coolers. The first is the fountain of hope where they truly believe they can get to the playoffs riding Zach Wilson’s arm and decision making. The second is some pickle juice that gets their defense playing like a swarm of bees capable of carrying the team by itself, note only a -0.2 net yards/play with a nearly laughable offense. Unfortunately I am not sure the two coolers are marked as it seems the Jets can be world beaters one week and laughing stocks the next. This is almost a matter of, Is the Jets defense stocked deep enough to weather injuries and still be the dominant unit on the team? If yes, they can get in the Playoffs. If no, then it back to the drawing board for 2024.
Washington Commanders Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -27.96
- Net Yards/Play: -0.8
- Power Rating: 97.98 (24th)
Offense (Grade C) – 4.9 yards/play, 5.2 yards/pass att, 10 turnovers….Come to think of it, the Grade C may be a bit generous as this is not an offense you want to watch or root for.
- Point For 133 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 6.27 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The only thing the Commanders do slightly above average is create turnovers, and I would wonder if they are created or gifted. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass. Opponents are scroing on 51.2% of drives.
- Point Against 176 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 51.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -34.23 (avg -7.1)
The Commanders offense is worse than the headline stats make them appear to be. But that’s ok because their defense is at least as bad as the headline stats make them appear to be. It is almost comical that opponent’s are scoring on over half their drives against this defense. The offense isn’t really good at passing the ball, but seem to be accomplished at turning the ball over. The change in ownership didn’t change the talent, the coaching, or the wandering, pointless path to 6 wins the Commanders seem to be commited to and quite capable of stumbling towards.
Cincinatti Bengals Grade C—
- Net Expected Points: -41.27
- Net Yards/Play: -1.4
- Power Rating: 97.02 (25th)
Offense (Grade D) – The question for the Bengals has to be, how can you be this bad on offense when you don’t turn the ball over? Yards/play of 4.2? That is a joke. Yards/pass attempt of 4.5? Who is throwing the ball, the local winner of the 13yr old division of Punt Pass & Kick? Scoring% of 26.9%? Expected points of -31? Quite frankly this isn’t even an NFL offense at this point.
- Point For 100 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 26.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -31.06 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – The Bengals are susceptible to the run, as the 5.0 yards/attempt metric shows. That means they probably have to bring an extra man into the box which leaves them susceptible to the pass as well. But why pass when you can simply run it at 6 yards a clip?
- Point Against 127 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 36.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -10.21 (avg -7.1)
Ok the Bengals deserve a D, but their past and the small glimmers of hope we’ve seen over the past few games allowed me to fudge their grade all the way up to C—. They don’t deserve to be a Grade C team, even the worst one by way of author bias, but if they can find 90% of what they were last year, they should be able to get to 9 wins, give or take, and maybe sneak into the playoffs. The issue is they have the Browns and Ravens to deal with in the division and they lost games that could be crucial in tie breakers later on. It’s hard to sit here and talk up a team with an absolutely pathetic -1.4 net yards/play, but that metric has been getting better of late. This is all a matter of can the Bengals pull out of the nosedive in time to save 2023. History would say yes, but the stats right now are saying no.
Grade D
Las Vegas Raiders Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -50.75
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2
- Power Rating: 96.33 (26th)
Offense (Grade C-) – The Raiders are the Bucs with the added bonus of turning the ball over 12 times instead of 4. Yards/play 4.9, rush.attempt 3.0, but because they turn the ball over way more, their scoring% barely breaks 30%. You can’t win in the league at 30% scoring% unless every single score is a TD.
- Point For 100 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 30.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 20.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -5.83 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The Raiders appears to have just an average defense as many of the primary metrics are decidely average. They are not causing many turnovers and opponents are scoring at a 40% clip against them.
- Point Against 131 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 40.0%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -44.92 (avg -7.1)
Josh McDaniels must have compromising photos of someone. His first stint in Denver was a disaster. He quit his next job before starting it, and now he is in the desert sucking the life out of the Raiders fans. The man simply does not command the respect of the people he is tasked to coach and lead. There is no answer for it, and he isn’t going to grow into it. He is what he is, a good assistant coach that most players don’t seem to like for whatever reason. The Raiders turn the ball over too much on offense, and the defense is just a unit with 11 guys. There is no Mojo and seemingly no real plan. I’d almost rather be the Giants with an F- grade and a plan that didnt work, then no plan at all.
Arizona Cardinals Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -57.66
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 95.84 (27th)
Offense (Grade C) – Well we all owe Mr Dobbs an apology. He has looked like an average starting QB in the league and that is meant as a huge compliment. 5.7 yards/play, 5.3 rush yards/attempt are both well above average.
- Point For 117 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 1.45 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F) – Opponents scoring on 47.5% of drives is ugly. 6.7 yards/pass attempt is also ugly. In fact, the Cardinals defense seems to do just about everything poorly. They just kind of stink from head to toe.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -59.11 (avg -7.1)
Let’s start with the good. Dobbs has been way better than anyone could have hoped. The offense looks adequate if not average at times. Dobbs is also their best running option as the ground game is pretty putrid outside QB scrambles and designed runs. The passing game needs work, but the biggest failings are on defense. The can’t stop the run or the pass, they don’t create turnovers, and opponents score on them 47.5% of the time. It is a miracle their net yards/play is only -0.3. Dobbs probably deserve credit for keeping it as close to net zero as it is.
Chicago Bears Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -61.64
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6
- Power Rating: 95.55 (28th)
Offense (Grade C-) – If the Bears would stop turning the ball over and taking sacks, they might be a slightly above average offense. Most of their offensive metrics are not that bad, some even good, but their penchant for making the worst play at the worst time, time and time again, is a metric that is hard to define.
- Point For 128 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 17.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -9.56 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F) – I know the Bears offense hasn’t been a joy to watch, but if you were going to the toilet or to get a beer you would be better off doing it when the Bears defense is on the field because they are even harder to watch. 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 5.8 yards/play.
- Point Against 176 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 42.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -52.08 (avg -7.1)
The metrics say the Bears offense is much better than the Bears defense. But the human eye says the both kind of stink. If we are judging stench, then the defense probably is the more accomplished and consistent failure. But let’s not lose sight of an offense that at times literally looks as though it was drawn up by a 10 year old kid using bottlecaps and rocks on a South Side street. I am pretty sure that neither Fields nor Eberflus should buy a home in Chicago as I don’t think either has a future there in 2024. Personally I put this more on Eberflus and his staff, but Fields is not getting better, physically or mentally, by staying in Chicago.
New England Patriots Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -67.77
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 95.11 (29th)
Offense (Grade F-) – Eleven turnovers, 3.4 rush/att, 4.5 yards/play, and an eye popping -71.41 Expected points. Basically if you sent you QB out on the field with a time bomb as a football and let it go off, that offense would be slightly more productive than what the Patriots are trotting out there now.
- Point For 72 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 18.3% (avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 15.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -71.41 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B-) – Rush/attempt and yards/play are below league average. However scoring%, points against and turnovers, particularly turnovers with just 3, is where the defense is failing.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 3.64 (avg -7.1)
Just like the Broncos offense was absolved from the tongue lashing the defense earned and deserved, the Patriots defense is doing its best to hold up its end of the bargain. You can see by the Patriots -0.3 Net Yard/Play that the defense is doing its job, almost making up for a completely inadequate and stumbling offense. The Panthers just below them are at -1.3 net yards/play and the Bears right above them at -0.6. It is simply too big a hole that the Pats offense digs for the defense to climb out of every week.
Carolina Panthers Grade D-
- Net Expected Points: -75.83
- Net Yards/Play: -1.3
- Power Rating: 94.52 (30th)
Offense (Grade D) – Ok, well we didn’t expect much of the Panthers and we are getting exactly what we expected. Young needs some time to get used to the size and speed of the NFl game and that’s ok.
- Point For 149 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 35.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -2.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The can’t stop the run or the pass. The don’t create turnovers. They give up a ton of points. This is a well earned Grade D if ever there was one.
- Point Against 186 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 43.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -41.73 (avg -7.1)
This is probably just about where everyone envisioned the Panthers would be after 6 weeks so I can’t get on them about the D- as much as I can get on the Giants or Broncos. I don’t think the Panthers thought Young would be this raw out of the gate, but he has shown signs of improvement and he doesn’t have a whole lot to work with on a talent shy Panthers offense. I am not sure what the defense’s excuse is for being equally woeful. They aren’t relying on a rookie to make every key defensive decision or call. Again a lack of talent is evident, but there also seems to be some coaching deficits or schemes that need to be addressed to get the Panthers heading back in the right direction.
Denver Broncos Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -93.7
- Net Yards/Play: -1.2
- Power Rating: 93.26 (31st)
Offense (Grade C) – Yes the Broncos stink. But that is mostly because of the unholy mess that the defense is in, a topic we will cover in the Defensive Grades article in a few days. The offense, well it hasn’t been terrible.
- Point For 129 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 16.4% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 2.59 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F—) – 200 points against. An ungodly 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Almost 7 yards/play. Opponents scoring at a 53.1% rate. Giving up 5.6 yards per rush. Honestly, I don’t know how they caused the 6 turnovers they have, because they appear to be a complete clown car full of defensive ineptitude.
- Point Against 200 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 53.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -95.68 (avg -7.1)
I expect a lot of Xmas cards from Broncos fans for putting you 31st given your defense has produced a level of defensive ineptitute the world has never seen. Let’s absolve the offense. They are decidely average, but they must look like the 2000 Rams in practice against whatever 11 warm bodies the defense throws out there. There is bad. There is terrible. There is unmitigatedly awful. Then there is what is happening when Denver plays defense. They shouldn’t let children under 17 in to see it due to graphic ineptitude, colorful fan language, and just the general horror show that it is. If there was 20 dirty hands on the offense last year, there has to be 1000 absolutely filthy, grimey, gnarled hands on this defense.
New York Giants Grade F-
- Net Expected Points: -104.46
- Net Yards/Play: -2.0
- Power Rating: 92.46 (32nd)
Offense (Grade F) – The Giants are just a total train wreck of an offense. There is really not a single thing they do well offensively. There is almost nothing they even do at an average level, save turnovers at 8.
- Point For 71 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 23.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -55.12 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F) – The Giants are a consistent defense. They don’t stop the run and follow that up by not stopping the pass. Opponents scoring on 46% of the drives is abyssmal.
- Point Against 167 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.1 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 46.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -49.34 (avg -7.1)
WTF happened to the G men? A playoff team a year ago, or should I say a lifetime ago when you look at this pile of slop they have put together in the first 6 weeks. The offense stinks. The defense stinks. The coaching stinks. I am guessing even the hot dogs are terrible and the beer is watered down Bud Light they got on clearance. There is not one single metric in the any of the charts where they are even average, save for they have only turned the ball over 8 times. That’s it. That is the entire list of Giant team achievements in the first 6 weeks. If they adopted a puppy for the locker room before the season, make it two achievements; the puppy first and the turnovers a distant second.
That’s all for now. We will do this again in 6 weeks using the same method and stats. Then we will be able to see who has turned their season around and who has thrown it away in time for the stretch run to the playoffs. If you would like to see any stats or breakdown for the next installment, drop us an email or hit us up on Reddit.
Enjoy the next 6 weeks of football and best of luck to your team!
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NFL 2023 Week 7 Trimester Defensive Stats
