What Pass 1stD is

Passing first downs: first downs earned on completed passes. The passing game's contribution to keeping drives alive.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Buccaneers led at 16.81; the league average was 12.43.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

TB · 16.81

League average

12.43

Best to worst

8.13

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	TB	16.81	16
2	PIT	15.88	16
3	ATL	15.19	16
4	KC	15.19	16
5	IND	15	16
6	LAR	14.81	16
7	PHI	14.19	16
8	MIN	13.75	16
9	LAC	13.44	16
10	CAR	13.31	16
11	NO	13.31	16
12	GB	13.06	16
13	NYG	13.06	16
14	NE	12.94	16
15	DET	12.81	16
16	HOU	12.69	16
17	SF	12.69	16
18	LV	12.44	16
19	CLE	12	16
20	CIN	11.56	16
21	DAL	11.56	16
22	DEN	11.56	16
23	BAL	11.50	16
24	CHI	11.25	16
25	JAX	10.50	16
26	SEA	10.19	16
27	NYJ	10	16
28	TEN	9.88	16
29	WAS	9.88	16
30	MIA	9.69	16
31	BUF	8.94	16
32	ARI	8.69	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

TB · 16.81

League laggard

ARI · 8.69

League average

12.43

Spread (max − min)

8.13

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	TB	16.81	4.38	100%
2	PIT	15.88	3.45	96.8%
3	ATL	15.19	2.76	93.5%
4	KC	15.19	2.76	90.3%
5	IND	15	2.57	87.1%
6	LAR	14.81	2.38	83.9%
7	PHI	14.19	1.76	80.6%
8	MIN	13.75	1.32	77.4%
9	LAC	13.44	1.01	74.2%
10	CAR	13.31	0.88	71%
11	NO	13.31	0.88	67.7%
12	GB	13.06	0.63	64.5%
13	NYG	13.06	0.63	61.3%
14	NE	12.94	0.51	58.1%
15	DET	12.81	0.38	54.8%
16	HOU	12.69	0.26	51.6%
17	SF	12.69	0.26	48.4%
18	LV	12.44	0.01	45.2%
19	CLE	12	-0.43	41.9%
20	CIN	11.56	-0.87	38.7%
21	DAL	11.56	-0.87	35.5%
22	DEN	11.56	-0.87	32.3%
23	BAL	11.50	-0.93	29%
24	CHI	11.25	-1.18	25.8%
25	JAX	10.50	-1.93	22.6%
26	SEA	10.19	-2.24	19.4%
27	NYJ	10	-2.43	16.1%
28	TEN	9.88	-2.55	12.9%
29	WAS	9.88	-2.55	9.7%
30	MIA	9.69	-2.74	6.5%
31	BUF	8.94	-3.49	3.2%
32	ARI	8.69	-3.74	0%

Does Pass 1stD matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 844–734–37 ATS (53.5%) across 2020–2025, #119 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2023 (144–114, 55.8%); its worst 2021 (135–135, 50.0%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	136–118–2	53.5%
2021	272	135–135–2	50.0%
2022	271	146–118–7	55.3%
2023	272	144–114–14	55.8%
2024	272	138–125–9	52.5%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 13.80

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 10.05

Biggest improver

CAR · +0.42/yr

Biggest decliner

TB · −1.05/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	13.80	−0.95	16.25	15.88	16.06	12.76	12.94	11.24	11.50
2	DET	13.61	+0.30	13.81	11.53	13.53	13.59	14.35	13.24	15.20
3	DAL	13.43	−0.08	14.50	14.65	11.53	13.71	11.53	13.71	14.40
4	CIN	13.33	+0.18	12.75	12.59	14	12.35	14.88	12.53	14.20
5	LAR	13.02	+0.36	12.94	13.82	10.82	12.18	11.41	14	16
6	TB	12.80	−1.05	15.13	16.06	14.18	11.18	13.24	10.41	9.40
7	BUF	12.55	−0.77	15.13	14.29	13.50	11.88	10.71	11.76	10.60
8	SF	12.48	−0.06	13.94	11.94	11.29	12.35	12.12	13.94	11.80
9	LAC	12.27	−0.95	14.31	15.06	13.76	12.12	10.35	10.88	9.40
10	ARI	12.10	−0.02	13.38	12.71	11.18	10.18	11.41	12.88	13
11	LV	12.04	−0.09	13	12.94	11.47	10.82	12.41	9.65	14
12	GB	11.99	−0.42	13.56	13.94	11	12.41	10.24	10.76	12
13	MIN	11.91	−0.78	13.31	11.94	14.71	13.06	12.47	9.47	8.40
14	SEA	11.78	−0.07	13.63	9.94	12.18	11.18	12.47	10.65	12.40
15	MIA	11.72	−0.78	12.94	12.35	13.06	13.18	13.29	10.24	7
16	JAX	11.58	−0.20	13.06	10.65	12.35	11.76	10.24	11.76	11.20
17	HOU	11.43	−0.03	13.88	9.59	9.41	12.71	11.59	10.82	12
18	NO	11.33	+0.17	12.50	9.76	10.82	11.76	10	10.88	13.60
19	ATL	11.20	−0.64	15.44	11.71	8.82	10.76	11.65	11	9
20	IND	10.87	−0.23	12.63	10	11.53	10.65	9.59	11.71	10
21	PIT	10.77	−0.47	13.06	12.18	11.12	9	9.47	9.76	10.80
22	CAR	10.75	+0.42	12.25	10.24	8.18	8.88	9.94	10	15.75
23	WAS	10.73	−0.26	11.56	10.71	10.94	11.18	11.41	9.53	9.80
24	CHI	10.61	−0.02	13.75	10.71	6.41	10	10.18	11.24	12
25	NE	10.43	+0.22	9.81	11.06	9.82	9.06	10	12.24	11
26	BAL	10.42	+0.12	9	12.41	8.88	10.65	11.82	8.35	11.80
27	PHI	10.40	−0.31	11.19	9.82	11.59	11.65	9.94	9.82	8.80
28	CLE	10.36	−0.46	12.38	10.47	10.71	10.35	10.82	8.18	9.60
29	DEN	10.29	−0.13	11	10.94	9.76	9.24	10.29	11.82	9
30	NYG	10.13	−0.03	11.13	10.24	10.18	8.53	10.06	9.41	11.40
31	NYJ	10.07	−0.22	9.13	11.59	11.24	9.35	11.94	8.06	9.20
32	TEN	10.05	−0.60	12.69	11.65	9.18	9.41	9.65	9.18	8.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAR	12.94	13.82	10.82	12.18	11.41	14	16
CAR	12.25	10.24	8.18	8.88	9.94	10	15.75
DET	13.81	11.53	13.53	13.59	14.35	13.24	15.20
DAL	14.50	14.65	11.53	13.71	11.53	13.71	14.40
CIN	12.75	12.59	14	12.35	14.88	12.53	14.20
LV	13	12.94	11.47	10.82	12.41	9.65	14
NO	12.50	9.76	10.82	11.76	10	10.88	13.60
ARI	13.38	12.71	11.18	10.18	11.41	12.88	13
SEA	13.63	9.94	12.18	11.18	12.47	10.65	12.40
CHI	13.75	10.71	6.41	10	10.18	11.24	12
GB	13.56	13.94	11	12.41	10.24	10.76	12
HOU	13.88	9.59	9.41	12.71	11.59	10.82	12
BAL	9	12.41	8.88	10.65	11.82	8.35	11.80
SF	13.94	11.94	11.29	12.35	12.12	13.94	11.80
KC	16.25	15.88	16.06	12.76	12.94	11.24	11.50
NYG	11.13	10.24	10.18	8.53	10.06	9.41	11.40
JAX	13.06	10.65	12.35	11.76	10.24	11.76	11.20
NE	9.81	11.06	9.82	9.06	10	12.24	11
PIT	13.06	12.18	11.12	9	9.47	9.76	10.80
BUF	15.13	14.29	13.50	11.88	10.71	11.76	10.60
IND	12.63	10	11.53	10.65	9.59	11.71	10
WAS	11.56	10.71	10.94	11.18	11.41	9.53	9.80
CLE	12.38	10.47	10.71	10.35	10.82	8.18	9.60
LAC	14.31	15.06	13.76	12.12	10.35	10.88	9.40
TB	15.13	16.06	14.18	11.18	13.24	10.41	9.40
NYJ	9.13	11.59	11.24	9.35	11.94	8.06	9.20
ATL	15.44	11.71	8.82	10.76	11.65	11	9
DEN	11	10.94	9.76	9.24	10.29	11.82	9
PHI	11.19	9.82	11.59	11.65	9.94	9.82	8.80
TEN	12.69	11.65	9.18	9.41	9.65	9.18	8.60
MIN	13.31	11.94	14.71	13.06	12.47	9.47	8.40
MIA	12.94	12.35	13.06	13.18	13.29	10.24	7

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_pass_fd
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.