What Fourth down success is

Fourth downs converted into a new set of downs. The count behind the rate.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Broncos led at 0.94; the league average was 0.59.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

DEN · 0.94

League average

0.59

Best to worst

0.63

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DEN	0.94	16
2	PHI	0.88	16
3	BAL	0.81	16
4	NO	0.81	16
5	DAL	0.75	16
6	KC	0.75	16
7	NYG	0.75	16
8	DET	0.69	16
9	NYJ	0.69	16
10	SEA	0.69	16
11	ATL	0.63	16
12	GB	0.63	16
13	WAS	0.63	16
14	CAR	0.56	16
15	CHI	0.56	16
16	CIN	0.56	16
17	CLE	0.56	16
18	MIN	0.56	16
19	PIT	0.56	16
20	TB	0.56	16
21	HOU	0.50	16
22	JAX	0.50	16
23	MIA	0.50	16
24	BUF	0.44	16
25	IND	0.44	16
26	LAC	0.44	16
27	LV	0.44	16
28	NE	0.44	16
29	TEN	0.44	16
30	ARI	0.38	16
31	LAR	0.38	16
32	SF	0.31	16

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DEN · 0.94

League laggard

SF · 0.31

League average

0.59

Spread (max − min)

0.63

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DEN	0.94	0.35	100%
2	PHI	0.88	0.29	96.8%
3	BAL	0.81	0.23	93.5%
4	NO	0.81	0.23	90.3%
5	DAL	0.75	0.16	87.1%
6	KC	0.75	0.16	83.9%
7	NYG	0.75	0.16	80.6%
8	DET	0.69	0.10	77.4%
9	NYJ	0.69	0.10	74.2%
10	SEA	0.69	0.10	71%
11	ATL	0.63	0.04	67.7%
12	GB	0.63	0.04	64.5%
13	WAS	0.63	0.04	61.3%
14	CAR	0.56	-0.02	58.1%
15	CHI	0.56	-0.02	54.8%
16	CIN	0.56	-0.02	51.6%
17	CLE	0.56	-0.02	48.4%
18	MIN	0.56	-0.02	45.2%
19	PIT	0.56	-0.02	41.9%
20	TB	0.56	-0.02	38.7%
21	HOU	0.50	-0.09	35.5%
22	JAX	0.50	-0.09	32.3%
23	MIA	0.50	-0.09	29%
24	BUF	0.44	-0.15	25.8%
25	IND	0.44	-0.15	22.6%
26	LAC	0.44	-0.15	19.4%
27	LV	0.44	-0.15	16.1%
28	NE	0.44	-0.15	12.9%
29	TEN	0.44	-0.15	9.7%
30	ARI	0.38	-0.21	6.5%
31	LAR	0.38	-0.21	3.2%
32	SF	0.31	-0.27	0%

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 780–798–37 ATS (49.4%) across 2020–2025, #263 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (141–123, 53.4%); its worst 2025 (126–143, 46.8%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	127–127–2	50.0%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	141–123–7	53.4%
2023	272	132–126–14	51.2%
2024	272	126–137–9	47.9%
2025	272	126–143–3	46.8%

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 1.18

Multi-year laggard

SEA · 0.46

Biggest improver

NO · +0.15/yr

Biggest decliner

LAC · −0.09/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	1.18	+0.10	0.63	1.24	1.18	1.24	1.29	1.06	1.60
2	IND	1.05	+0.07	1	1.06	0.71	0.94	1	1.06	1.60
3	CHI	1.00	+0.09	1.06	0.88	0.47	0.76	1.35	0.88	1.60
4	CAR	1.00	+0.04	0.94	0.82	0.71	1.35	0.82	1.59	0.75
5	CLE	0.91	+0.01	0.50	0.71	1.35	1.06	1.41	0.71	0.60
6	WAS	0.88	+0.03	0.69	0.94	0.71	0.94	1.18	0.94	0.80
7	NYG	0.88	+0.01	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.06	1.18	1.06	0.60
8	ARI	0.88	−0.05	1.06	1	1.06	0.88	0.47	0.71	1
9	PHI	0.88	−0.06	0.94	0.65	1.29	1.12	1.12	0.65	0.40
10	LAR	0.84	+0.10	0.50	0.59	0.88	0.76	0.94	1.18	1
11	LV	0.81	−0.02	1	0.71	0.76	0.82	0.82	0.76	0.80
12	KC	0.81	+0.14	0.56	0.59	0.53	0.59	0.71	1.41	1.25
13	NO	0.80	+0.15	0.69	0.65	0.24	0.53	0.88	0.82	1.80
14	DAL	0.79	−0.04	1.06	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.59	1.29	0.40
15	LAC	0.79	−0.09	0.75	1.29	0.88	0.88	0.59	0.71	0.40
16	GB	0.78	+0.04	0.81	0.76	0.71	0.71	0.47	0.82	1.20
17	NE	0.76	+0.14	0.56	0.65	0.29	0.53	0.82	1.06	1.40
18	JAX	0.76	−0.01	0.44	1.06	0.82	0.76	0.82	1	0.40
19	NYJ	0.74	+0.03	0.44	0.82	0.65	1	0.59	1.06	0.60
20	MIN	0.70	−0.02	0.81	0.71	0.53	1	0.35	0.88	0.60
21	ATL	0.68	−0.04	0.94	0.59	0.53	0.47	1.24	0.82	0.20
22	BUF	0.68	+0.06	0.50	0.65	0.44	0.53	0.94	1.12	0.60
23	CIN	0.67	−0.04	1.19	0.76	0.19	0.53	0.59	0.82	0.60
24	MIA	0.66	−0.01	0.50	0.76	0.76	0.65	0.88	0.65	0.40
25	TEN	0.65	−0.02	0.63	0.88	0.53	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.40
26	DEN	0.65	−0.00	0.25	0.94	0.71	0.76	0.88	0.59	0.40
27	TB	0.62	−0.01	0.50	0.53	0.88	0.71	0.53	0.76	0.40
28	BAL	0.61	−0.07	0.75	1.06	0.47	0.47	0.47	0.88	0.20
29	PIT	0.59	−0.00	0.63	0.59	0.65	0.53	0.41	0.71	0.60
30	HOU	0.57	−0.01	0.56	0.53	0.76	0.47	0.65	0.65	0.40
31	SF	0.46	−0.00	0.38	0.59	0.41	0.41	0.47	0.76	0.20
32	SEA	0.46	−0.00	0.50	0.24	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.41	0.40

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_success
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.