What Fourth down success is

Fourth downs converted into a new set of downs. The count behind the rate.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Chargers led at 1.29; the league average was 0.78.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

LAC · 1.29

League average

0.78

Best to worst

1.06

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAC	1.29	17
2	DET	1.24	17
3	BAL	1.06	17
4	IND	1.06	17
5	JAX	1.06	17
6	ARI	1	17
7	DEN	0.94	17
8	WAS	0.94	17
9	CHI	0.88	17
10	TEN	0.88	17
11	CAR	0.82	17
12	DAL	0.82	17
13	NYG	0.82	17
14	NYJ	0.82	17
15	CIN	0.76	17
16	GB	0.76	17
17	MIA	0.76	17
18	CLE	0.71	17
19	LV	0.71	17
20	MIN	0.71	17
21	BUF	0.65	17
22	NE	0.65	17
23	NO	0.65	17
24	PHI	0.65	17
25	ATL	0.59	17
26	KC	0.59	17
27	LAR	0.59	17
28	PIT	0.59	17
29	SF	0.59	17
30	HOU	0.53	17
31	TB	0.53	17
32	SEA	0.24	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAC · 1.29

League laggard

SEA · 0.24

League average

0.78

Spread (max − min)

1.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAC	1.29	0.52	100%
2	DET	1.24	0.46	96.8%
3	BAL	1.06	0.28	93.5%
4	IND	1.06	0.28	90.3%
5	JAX	1.06	0.28	87.1%
6	ARI	1	0.22	83.9%
7	DEN	0.94	0.16	80.6%
8	WAS	0.94	0.16	77.4%
9	CHI	0.88	0.10	74.2%
10	TEN	0.88	0.10	71%
11	CAR	0.82	0.05	67.7%
12	DAL	0.82	0.05	64.5%
13	NYG	0.82	0.05	61.3%
14	NYJ	0.82	0.05	58.1%
15	CIN	0.76	-0.01	54.8%
16	GB	0.76	-0.01	51.6%
17	MIA	0.76	-0.01	48.4%
18	CLE	0.71	-0.07	45.2%
19	LV	0.71	-0.07	41.9%
20	MIN	0.71	-0.07	38.7%
21	BUF	0.65	-0.13	35.5%
22	NE	0.65	-0.13	32.3%
23	NO	0.65	-0.13	29%
24	PHI	0.65	-0.13	25.8%
25	ATL	0.59	-0.19	22.6%
26	KC	0.59	-0.19	19.4%
27	LAR	0.59	-0.19	16.1%
28	PIT	0.59	-0.19	12.9%
29	SF	0.59	-0.19	9.7%
30	HOU	0.53	-0.25	6.5%
31	TB	0.53	-0.25	3.2%
32	SEA	0.24	-0.54	0%

Does Fourth down success matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 780–798–37 ATS (49.4%) across 2020–2025, #263 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (141–123, 53.4%); its worst 2025 (126–143, 46.8%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	127–127–2	50.0%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	141–123–7	53.4%
2023	272	132–126–14	51.2%
2024	272	126–137–9	47.9%
2025	272	126–143–3	46.8%

Fourth down success in 2021 vs 2020

Chargers lead at 1.29 — they ranked #14 last year. Seahawks are last at 0.24 — #27 last year.

The league average is 0.78, up 0.07 from 0.71 last year.

Biggest riser: Broncos, #32 → #7. Biggest faller: Falcons, #7 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 1.06; 23 teams are within 0.22 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DEN · +0.69

Biggest faller

CIN · −0.42

Most consistent

KC · +0.03

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 0.07

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DEN	0.94	0.25	+0.69
2	JAX	1.06	0.44	+0.62
3	DET	1.24	0.63	+0.61
4	LAC	1.29	0.75	+0.54
5	NYJ	0.82	0.44	+0.39
6	BAL	1.06	0.75	+0.31
7	MIA	0.76	0.50	+0.26
8	TEN	0.88	0.63	+0.26
9	WAS	0.94	0.69	+0.25
10	SF	0.59	0.38	+0.21
11	CLE	0.71	0.50	+0.21
12	BUF	0.65	0.50	+0.15
13	LAR	0.59	0.50	+0.09
14	NE	0.65	0.56	+0.08
15	IND	1.06	1	+0.06
16	TB	0.53	0.50	+0.03
17	KC	0.59	0.56	+0.03
18	HOU	0.53	0.56	−0.03
19	PIT	0.59	0.63	−0.04
20	NO	0.65	0.69	−0.04
21	GB	0.76	0.81	−0.05
22	NYG	0.82	0.88	−0.05
23	ARI	1	1.06	−0.06
24	MIN	0.71	0.81	−0.11
25	CAR	0.82	0.94	−0.11
26	CHI	0.88	1.06	−0.18
27	DAL	0.82	1.06	−0.24
28	SEA	0.24	0.50	−0.26
29	PHI	0.65	0.94	−0.29
30	LV	0.71	1	−0.29
31	ATL	0.59	0.94	−0.35
32	CIN	0.76	1.19	−0.42

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 1.18

Multi-year laggard

SEA · 0.46

Biggest improver

NO · +0.15/yr

Biggest decliner

LAC · −0.09/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	1.18	+0.10	0.63	1.24	1.18	1.24	1.29	1.06	1.60
2	IND	1.05	+0.07	1	1.06	0.71	0.94	1	1.06	1.60
3	CHI	1.00	+0.09	1.06	0.88	0.47	0.76	1.35	0.88	1.60
4	CAR	1.00	+0.04	0.94	0.82	0.71	1.35	0.82	1.59	0.75
5	CLE	0.91	+0.01	0.50	0.71	1.35	1.06	1.41	0.71	0.60
6	WAS	0.88	+0.03	0.69	0.94	0.71	0.94	1.18	0.94	0.80
7	NYG	0.88	+0.01	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.06	1.18	1.06	0.60
8	ARI	0.88	−0.05	1.06	1	1.06	0.88	0.47	0.71	1
9	PHI	0.88	−0.06	0.94	0.65	1.29	1.12	1.12	0.65	0.40
10	LAR	0.84	+0.10	0.50	0.59	0.88	0.76	0.94	1.18	1
11	LV	0.81	−0.02	1	0.71	0.76	0.82	0.82	0.76	0.80
12	KC	0.81	+0.14	0.56	0.59	0.53	0.59	0.71	1.41	1.25
13	NO	0.80	+0.15	0.69	0.65	0.24	0.53	0.88	0.82	1.80
14	DAL	0.79	−0.04	1.06	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.59	1.29	0.40
15	LAC	0.79	−0.09	0.75	1.29	0.88	0.88	0.59	0.71	0.40
16	GB	0.78	+0.04	0.81	0.76	0.71	0.71	0.47	0.82	1.20
17	NE	0.76	+0.14	0.56	0.65	0.29	0.53	0.82	1.06	1.40
18	JAX	0.76	−0.01	0.44	1.06	0.82	0.76	0.82	1	0.40
19	NYJ	0.74	+0.03	0.44	0.82	0.65	1	0.59	1.06	0.60
20	MIN	0.70	−0.02	0.81	0.71	0.53	1	0.35	0.88	0.60
21	ATL	0.68	−0.04	0.94	0.59	0.53	0.47	1.24	0.82	0.20
22	BUF	0.68	+0.06	0.50	0.65	0.44	0.53	0.94	1.12	0.60
23	CIN	0.67	−0.04	1.19	0.76	0.19	0.53	0.59	0.82	0.60
24	MIA	0.66	−0.01	0.50	0.76	0.76	0.65	0.88	0.65	0.40
25	TEN	0.65	−0.02	0.63	0.88	0.53	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.40
26	DEN	0.65	−0.00	0.25	0.94	0.71	0.76	0.88	0.59	0.40
27	TB	0.62	−0.01	0.50	0.53	0.88	0.71	0.53	0.76	0.40
28	BAL	0.61	−0.07	0.75	1.06	0.47	0.47	0.47	0.88	0.20
29	PIT	0.59	−0.00	0.63	0.59	0.65	0.53	0.41	0.71	0.60
30	HOU	0.57	−0.01	0.56	0.53	0.76	0.47	0.65	0.65	0.40
31	SF	0.46	−0.00	0.38	0.59	0.41	0.41	0.47	0.76	0.20
32	SEA	0.46	−0.00	0.50	0.24	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.41	0.40

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAC	0.75	1.29	0.88	0.88	0.59	0.71	0.40
DET	0.63	1.24	1.18	1.24	1.29	1.06	1.60
BAL	0.75	1.06	0.47	0.47	0.47	0.88	0.20
IND	1	1.06	0.71	0.94	1	1.06	1.60
JAX	0.44	1.06	0.82	0.76	0.82	1	0.40
ARI	1.06	1	1.06	0.88	0.47	0.71	1
DEN	0.25	0.94	0.71	0.76	0.88	0.59	0.40
WAS	0.69	0.94	0.71	0.94	1.18	0.94	0.80
CHI	1.06	0.88	0.47	0.76	1.35	0.88	1.60
TEN	0.63	0.88	0.53	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.40
CAR	0.94	0.82	0.71	1.35	0.82	1.59	0.75
DAL	1.06	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.59	1.29	0.40
NYG	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.06	1.18	1.06	0.60
NYJ	0.44	0.82	0.65	1	0.59	1.06	0.60
CIN	1.19	0.76	0.19	0.53	0.59	0.82	0.60
GB	0.81	0.76	0.71	0.71	0.47	0.82	1.20
MIA	0.50	0.76	0.76	0.65	0.88	0.65	0.40
CLE	0.50	0.71	1.35	1.06	1.41	0.71	0.60
LV	1	0.71	0.76	0.82	0.82	0.76	0.80
MIN	0.81	0.71	0.53	1	0.35	0.88	0.60
BUF	0.50	0.65	0.44	0.53	0.94	1.12	0.60
NE	0.56	0.65	0.29	0.53	0.82	1.06	1.40
NO	0.69	0.65	0.24	0.53	0.88	0.82	1.80
PHI	0.94	0.65	1.29	1.12	1.12	0.65	0.40
ATL	0.94	0.59	0.53	0.47	1.24	0.82	0.20
KC	0.56	0.59	0.53	0.59	0.71	1.41	1.25
LAR	0.50	0.59	0.88	0.76	0.94	1.18	1
PIT	0.63	0.59	0.65	0.53	0.41	0.71	0.60
SF	0.38	0.59	0.41	0.41	0.47	0.76	0.20
HOU	0.56	0.53	0.76	0.47	0.65	0.65	0.40
TB	0.50	0.53	0.88	0.71	0.53	0.76	0.40
SEA	0.50	0.24	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.41	0.40

Fourth down success since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Broncos (0.94), 2019 Ravens (1.06), 2020 Bengals (1.19), 2021 Chargers (1.29).

The best season on record is Chargers 2021 at 1.29; the worst Steelers 2019 at 0.13.

The league average has risen from 0.59 in 2018 to 0.78 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_success
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.