What Rec 1stD is

Receiving first downs: catches that gained a first down. It separates the completions that moved the chains from the ones that didn't.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Buccaneers led at 16.56; the league average was 12.28.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

TB · 16.56

League average

12.28

Best to worst

8.06

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	TB	16.56	16
2	PIT	15.75	16
3	KC	14.94	16
4	ATL	14.88	16
5	IND	14.81	16
6	LAR	14.75	16
7	PHI	13.94	16
8	MIN	13.63	16
9	LAC	13.38	16
10	CAR	13.31	16
11	NO	13.13	16
12	GB	13.06	16
13	NYG	13.06	16
14	NE	12.88	16
15	HOU	12.69	16
16	SF	12.63	16
17	DET	12.56	16
18	LV	12.38	16
19	CLE	11.81	16
20	BAL	11.50	16
21	DAL	11.50	16
22	CIN	11.38	16
23	DEN	11.38	16
24	CHI	11.06	16
25	JAX	10.25	16
26	NYJ	9.81	16
27	SEA	9.81	16
28	WAS	9.81	16
29	TEN	9.75	16
30	MIA	9.56	16
31	ARI	8.56	16
32	BUF	8.50	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

TB · 16.56

League laggard

BUF · 8.50

League average

12.28

Spread (max − min)

8.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	TB	16.56	4.28	100%
2	PIT	15.75	3.47	96.8%
3	KC	14.94	2.66	93.5%
4	ATL	14.88	2.59	90.3%
5	IND	14.81	2.53	87.1%
6	LAR	14.75	2.47	83.9%
7	PHI	13.94	1.66	80.6%
8	MIN	13.63	1.34	77.4%
9	LAC	13.38	1.09	74.2%
10	CAR	13.31	1.03	71%
11	NO	13.13	0.84	67.7%
12	GB	13.06	0.78	64.5%
13	NYG	13.06	0.78	61.3%
14	NE	12.88	0.59	58.1%
15	HOU	12.69	0.41	54.8%
16	SF	12.63	0.34	51.6%
17	DET	12.56	0.28	48.4%
18	LV	12.38	0.09	45.2%
19	CLE	11.81	-0.47	41.9%
20	BAL	11.50	-0.78	38.7%
21	DAL	11.50	-0.78	35.5%
22	CIN	11.38	-0.91	32.3%
23	DEN	11.38	-0.91	29%
24	CHI	11.06	-1.22	25.8%
25	JAX	10.25	-2.03	22.6%
26	NYJ	9.81	-2.47	19.4%
27	SEA	9.81	-2.47	16.1%
28	WAS	9.81	-2.47	12.9%
29	TEN	9.75	-2.53	9.7%
30	MIA	9.56	-2.72	6.5%
31	ARI	8.56	-3.72	3.2%
32	BUF	8.50	-3.78	0%

Does Rec 1stD matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 838–740–37 ATS (53.1%) across 2020–2025, #130 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (144–120, 54.5%); its worst 2021 (136–134, 50.4%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	137–117–2	53.9%
2021	272	136–134–2	50.4%
2022	271	144–120–7	54.5%
2023	272	140–118–14	54.3%
2024	272	138–125–9	52.5%
2025	272	143–126–3	53.2%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 13.71

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 9.96

Biggest improver

CAR · +0.45/yr

Biggest decliner

TB · −1.06/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	13.71	−0.92	16	15.71	16.06	12.71	12.88	11.12	11.50
2	DET	13.47	+0.27	13.81	11.41	13.41	13.41	14.24	13.24	14.80
3	DAL	13.30	−0.10	14.44	14.59	11.41	13.59	11.35	13.53	14.20
4	CIN	13.20	+0.22	12.56	12.24	13.81	12.29	14.94	12.53	14
5	LAR	12.91	+0.35	12.88	13.71	10.65	12.12	11.35	13.88	15.80
6	TB	12.68	−1.06	14.88	16.12	14.12	11.06	13.18	10.24	9.20
7	BUF	12.44	−0.75	15	14.24	13.25	11.76	10.65	11.59	10.60
8	SF	12.35	+0.00	13.56	11.76	11.06	12.24	12.06	13.94	11.80
9	LAC	12.15	−0.99	14.13	15.12	13.71	12	10.41	10.88	8.80
10	ARI	12.01	−0.05	13.31	12.65	11.12	10.24	11.24	12.71	12.80
11	GB	11.93	−0.45	13.56	13.94	11	12.41	10.06	10.71	11.80
12	LV	11.90	−0.10	12.88	12.76	11.35	10.71	12.29	9.53	13.80
13	MIN	11.80	−0.78	13.25	11.94	14.35	13	12.41	9.24	8.40
14	SEA	11.70	−0.08	13.63	9.76	12.12	11.12	12.41	10.65	12.20
15	MIA	11.63	−0.77	12.94	12.12	12.94	13.18	13	10.24	7
16	HOU	11.45	−0.04	14	9.59	9.41	12.65	11.65	10.88	12
17	JAX	11.43	−0.22	12.88	10.53	12.29	11.71	10.24	11.59	10.80
18	NO	11.28	+0.16	12.50	9.82	10.71	11.71	9.88	10.76	13.60
19	ATL	11.14	−0.62	15.31	11.65	8.71	10.71	11.71	10.88	9
20	IND	10.76	−0.23	12.56	9.88	11.35	10.47	9.47	11.76	9.80
21	CAR	10.74	+0.45	12.06	10.24	8.12	8.94	10.06	10	15.75
22	WAS	10.66	−0.25	11.50	10.65	10.82	11.18	11.29	9.41	9.80
23	PIT	10.66	−0.51	13	12	11.18	9.06	9.29	9.47	10.60
24	CHI	10.54	−0.02	13.63	10.59	6.47	9.94	10.18	11.18	11.80
25	NE	10.39	+0.20	9.94	11	9.82	9	9.82	12.18	11
26	BAL	10.38	+0.12	8.94	12.35	8.94	10.59	11.71	8.35	11.80
27	PHI	10.33	−0.34	11.13	9.88	11.47	11.59	9.88	9.76	8.60
28	CLE	10.16	−0.50	12.19	10.41	10.71	10.18	10.59	7.88	9.20
29	DEN	10.16	−0.14	11.06	10.53	9.76	9.12	10.12	11.53	9
30	NYG	10.03	−0.03	11.13	10.06	10	8.29	10.06	9.47	11.20
31	TEN	9.97	−0.57	12.69	11.41	9	9.29	9.65	9.18	8.60
32	NYJ	9.96	−0.26	9.13	11.47	11.29	9.18	11.82	8	8.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAR	12.88	13.71	10.65	12.12	11.35	13.88	15.80
CAR	12.06	10.24	8.12	8.94	10.06	10	15.75
DET	13.81	11.41	13.41	13.41	14.24	13.24	14.80
DAL	14.44	14.59	11.41	13.59	11.35	13.53	14.20
CIN	12.56	12.24	13.81	12.29	14.94	12.53	14
LV	12.88	12.76	11.35	10.71	12.29	9.53	13.80
NO	12.50	9.82	10.71	11.71	9.88	10.76	13.60
ARI	13.31	12.65	11.12	10.24	11.24	12.71	12.80
SEA	13.63	9.76	12.12	11.12	12.41	10.65	12.20
HOU	14	9.59	9.41	12.65	11.65	10.88	12
BAL	8.94	12.35	8.94	10.59	11.71	8.35	11.80
CHI	13.63	10.59	6.47	9.94	10.18	11.18	11.80
GB	13.56	13.94	11	12.41	10.06	10.71	11.80
SF	13.56	11.76	11.06	12.24	12.06	13.94	11.80
KC	16	15.71	16.06	12.71	12.88	11.12	11.50
NYG	11.13	10.06	10	8.29	10.06	9.47	11.20
NE	9.94	11	9.82	9	9.82	12.18	11
JAX	12.88	10.53	12.29	11.71	10.24	11.59	10.80
BUF	15	14.24	13.25	11.76	10.65	11.59	10.60
PIT	13	12	11.18	9.06	9.29	9.47	10.60
IND	12.56	9.88	11.35	10.47	9.47	11.76	9.80
WAS	11.50	10.65	10.82	11.18	11.29	9.41	9.80
CLE	12.19	10.41	10.71	10.18	10.59	7.88	9.20
TB	14.88	16.12	14.12	11.06	13.18	10.24	9.20
ATL	15.31	11.65	8.71	10.71	11.71	10.88	9
DEN	11.06	10.53	9.76	9.12	10.12	11.53	9
LAC	14.13	15.12	13.71	12	10.41	10.88	8.80
NYJ	9.13	11.47	11.29	9.18	11.82	8	8.80
PHI	11.13	9.88	11.47	11.59	9.88	9.76	8.60
TEN	12.69	11.41	9	9.29	9.65	9.18	8.60
MIN	13.25	11.94	14.35	13	12.41	9.24	8.40
MIA	12.94	12.12	12.94	13.18	13	10.24	7

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_receiving_rec_first_downs
Side: offensive
Family: Receiving
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.