What Rec 1stD is

Receiving first downs: catches that gained a first down. It separates the completions that moved the chains from the ones that didn't.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Buccaneers led at 16.12; the league average was 11.88.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

TB · 16.12

League average

11.88

Best to worst

6.53

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	TB	16.12	17
2	KC	15.71	17
3	LAC	15.12	17
4	DAL	14.59	17
5	BUF	14.24	17
6	GB	13.94	17
7	LAR	13.71	17
8	LV	12.76	17
9	ARI	12.65	17
10	BAL	12.35	17
11	CIN	12.24	17
12	MIA	12.12	17
13	PIT	12	17
14	MIN	11.94	17
15	SF	11.76	17
16	ATL	11.65	17
17	NYJ	11.47	17
18	DET	11.41	17
19	TEN	11.41	17
20	NE	11	17
21	WAS	10.65	17
22	CHI	10.59	17
23	DEN	10.53	17
24	JAX	10.53	17
25	CLE	10.41	17
26	CAR	10.24	17
27	NYG	10.06	17
28	IND	9.88	17
29	PHI	9.88	17
30	NO	9.82	17
31	SEA	9.76	17
32	HOU	9.59	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

TB · 16.12

League laggard

HOU · 9.59

League average

11.88

Spread (max − min)

6.53

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	TB	16.12	4.24	100%
2	KC	15.71	3.83	96.8%
3	LAC	15.12	3.24	93.5%
4	DAL	14.59	2.71	90.3%
5	BUF	14.24	2.36	87.1%
6	GB	13.94	2.06	83.9%
7	LAR	13.71	1.83	80.6%
8	LV	12.76	0.89	77.4%
9	ARI	12.65	0.77	74.2%
10	BAL	12.35	0.47	71%
11	CIN	12.24	0.36	67.7%
12	MIA	12.12	0.24	64.5%
13	PIT	12	0.12	61.3%
14	MIN	11.94	0.06	58.1%
15	SF	11.76	-0.11	54.8%
16	ATL	11.65	-0.23	51.6%
17	NYJ	11.47	-0.41	48.4%
18	DET	11.41	-0.47	45.2%
19	TEN	11.41	-0.47	41.9%
20	NE	11	-0.88	38.7%
21	WAS	10.65	-1.23	35.5%
22	CHI	10.59	-1.29	32.3%
23	DEN	10.53	-1.35	29%
24	JAX	10.53	-1.35	25.8%
25	CLE	10.41	-1.47	22.6%
26	CAR	10.24	-1.64	19.4%
27	NYG	10.06	-1.82	16.1%
28	IND	9.88	-2.00	12.9%
29	PHI	9.88	-2.00	9.7%
30	NO	9.82	-2.06	6.5%
31	SEA	9.76	-2.11	3.2%
32	HOU	9.59	-2.29	0%

Does Rec 1stD matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 838–740–37 ATS (53.1%) across 2020–2025, #130 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (144–120, 54.5%); its worst 2021 (136–134, 50.4%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	137–117–2	53.9%
2021	272	136–134–2	50.4%
2022	271	144–120–7	54.5%
2023	272	140–118–14	54.3%
2024	272	138–125–9	52.5%
2025	272	143–126–3	53.2%

Rec 1stD in 2021 vs 2020

Buccaneers lead at 16.12 — they ranked #4 last year. Texans are last at 9.59 — #7 last year.

The league average is 11.88, down 0.95 from 12.83 last year.

Biggest riser: Ravens, #32 → #10. Biggest faller: Texans, #7 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 6.53; 19 teams are within 1.80 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

BAL · +3.42

Biggest faller

HOU · −4.41

Most consistent

LV · −0.11

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.95

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	BAL	12.35	8.94	+3.42
2	NYJ	11.47	9.13	+2.35
3	TB	16.12	14.88	+1.24
4	NE	11	9.94	+1.06
5	LAC	15.12	14.13	+0.99
6	LAR	13.71	12.88	+0.83
7	GB	13.94	13.56	+0.38
8	DAL	14.59	14.44	+0.15
9	LV	12.76	12.88	−0.11
10	KC	15.71	16	−0.29
11	CIN	12.24	12.56	−0.33
12	DEN	10.53	11.06	−0.53
13	ARI	12.65	13.31	−0.67
14	BUF	14.24	15	−0.76
15	MIA	12.12	12.94	−0.82
16	WAS	10.65	11.50	−0.85
17	PIT	12	13	−1
18	NYG	10.06	11.13	−1.07
19	PHI	9.88	11.13	−1.24
20	TEN	11.41	12.69	−1.28
21	MIN	11.94	13.25	−1.31
22	CLE	10.41	12.19	−1.78
23	SF	11.76	13.56	−1.80
24	CAR	10.24	12.06	−1.83
25	JAX	10.53	12.88	−2.35
26	DET	11.41	13.81	−2.40
27	NO	9.82	12.50	−2.68
28	IND	9.88	12.56	−2.68
29	CHI	10.59	13.63	−3.04
30	ATL	11.65	15.31	−3.67
31	SEA	9.76	13.63	−3.86
32	HOU	9.59	14	−4.41

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 13.71

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 9.96

Biggest improver

CAR · +0.45/yr

Biggest decliner

TB · −1.06/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	13.71	−0.92	16	15.71	16.06	12.71	12.88	11.12	11.50
2	DET	13.47	+0.27	13.81	11.41	13.41	13.41	14.24	13.24	14.80
3	DAL	13.30	−0.10	14.44	14.59	11.41	13.59	11.35	13.53	14.20
4	CIN	13.20	+0.22	12.56	12.24	13.81	12.29	14.94	12.53	14
5	LAR	12.91	+0.35	12.88	13.71	10.65	12.12	11.35	13.88	15.80
6	TB	12.68	−1.06	14.88	16.12	14.12	11.06	13.18	10.24	9.20
7	BUF	12.44	−0.75	15	14.24	13.25	11.76	10.65	11.59	10.60
8	SF	12.35	+0.00	13.56	11.76	11.06	12.24	12.06	13.94	11.80
9	LAC	12.15	−0.99	14.13	15.12	13.71	12	10.41	10.88	8.80
10	ARI	12.01	−0.05	13.31	12.65	11.12	10.24	11.24	12.71	12.80
11	GB	11.93	−0.45	13.56	13.94	11	12.41	10.06	10.71	11.80
12	LV	11.90	−0.10	12.88	12.76	11.35	10.71	12.29	9.53	13.80
13	MIN	11.80	−0.78	13.25	11.94	14.35	13	12.41	9.24	8.40
14	SEA	11.70	−0.08	13.63	9.76	12.12	11.12	12.41	10.65	12.20
15	MIA	11.63	−0.77	12.94	12.12	12.94	13.18	13	10.24	7
16	HOU	11.45	−0.04	14	9.59	9.41	12.65	11.65	10.88	12
17	JAX	11.43	−0.22	12.88	10.53	12.29	11.71	10.24	11.59	10.80
18	NO	11.28	+0.16	12.50	9.82	10.71	11.71	9.88	10.76	13.60
19	ATL	11.14	−0.62	15.31	11.65	8.71	10.71	11.71	10.88	9
20	IND	10.76	−0.23	12.56	9.88	11.35	10.47	9.47	11.76	9.80
21	CAR	10.74	+0.45	12.06	10.24	8.12	8.94	10.06	10	15.75
22	WAS	10.66	−0.25	11.50	10.65	10.82	11.18	11.29	9.41	9.80
23	PIT	10.66	−0.51	13	12	11.18	9.06	9.29	9.47	10.60
24	CHI	10.54	−0.02	13.63	10.59	6.47	9.94	10.18	11.18	11.80
25	NE	10.39	+0.20	9.94	11	9.82	9	9.82	12.18	11
26	BAL	10.38	+0.12	8.94	12.35	8.94	10.59	11.71	8.35	11.80
27	PHI	10.33	−0.34	11.13	9.88	11.47	11.59	9.88	9.76	8.60
28	CLE	10.16	−0.50	12.19	10.41	10.71	10.18	10.59	7.88	9.20
29	DEN	10.16	−0.14	11.06	10.53	9.76	9.12	10.12	11.53	9
30	NYG	10.03	−0.03	11.13	10.06	10	8.29	10.06	9.47	11.20
31	TEN	9.97	−0.57	12.69	11.41	9	9.29	9.65	9.18	8.60
32	NYJ	9.96	−0.26	9.13	11.47	11.29	9.18	11.82	8	8.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
TB	14.88	16.12	14.12	11.06	13.18	10.24	9.20
KC	16	15.71	16.06	12.71	12.88	11.12	11.50
LAC	14.13	15.12	13.71	12	10.41	10.88	8.80
DAL	14.44	14.59	11.41	13.59	11.35	13.53	14.20
BUF	15	14.24	13.25	11.76	10.65	11.59	10.60
GB	13.56	13.94	11	12.41	10.06	10.71	11.80
LAR	12.88	13.71	10.65	12.12	11.35	13.88	15.80
LV	12.88	12.76	11.35	10.71	12.29	9.53	13.80
ARI	13.31	12.65	11.12	10.24	11.24	12.71	12.80
BAL	8.94	12.35	8.94	10.59	11.71	8.35	11.80
CIN	12.56	12.24	13.81	12.29	14.94	12.53	14
MIA	12.94	12.12	12.94	13.18	13	10.24	7
PIT	13	12	11.18	9.06	9.29	9.47	10.60
MIN	13.25	11.94	14.35	13	12.41	9.24	8.40
SF	13.56	11.76	11.06	12.24	12.06	13.94	11.80
ATL	15.31	11.65	8.71	10.71	11.71	10.88	9
NYJ	9.13	11.47	11.29	9.18	11.82	8	8.80
DET	13.81	11.41	13.41	13.41	14.24	13.24	14.80
TEN	12.69	11.41	9	9.29	9.65	9.18	8.60
NE	9.94	11	9.82	9	9.82	12.18	11
WAS	11.50	10.65	10.82	11.18	11.29	9.41	9.80
CHI	13.63	10.59	6.47	9.94	10.18	11.18	11.80
DEN	11.06	10.53	9.76	9.12	10.12	11.53	9
JAX	12.88	10.53	12.29	11.71	10.24	11.59	10.80
CLE	12.19	10.41	10.71	10.18	10.59	7.88	9.20
CAR	12.06	10.24	8.12	8.94	10.06	10	15.75
NYG	11.13	10.06	10	8.29	10.06	9.47	11.20
IND	12.56	9.88	11.35	10.47	9.47	11.76	9.80
PHI	11.13	9.88	11.47	11.59	9.88	9.76	8.60
NO	12.50	9.82	10.71	11.71	9.88	10.76	13.60
SEA	13.63	9.76	12.12	11.12	12.41	10.65	12.20
HOU	14	9.59	9.41	12.65	11.65	10.88	12

Rec 1stD since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Buccaneers (16.56), 2019 Falcons (16.13), 2020 Chiefs (16), 2021 Buccaneers (16.12).

Buccaneers have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Buccaneers 2018 at 16.56; the worst Bills 2018 at 8.50.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_receiving_rec_first_downs
Side: offensive
Family: Receiving
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.