Philadelphia Eagles — Exp pts pass, 2026

Value-3.77
Rank#26 of 32
League average1.62
Rank in 2025#14 of 32

Philadelphia Eagles — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Exp pts pass is

Expected points added by the passing game: for every pass play, the change in the team's expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. A deep completion on third-and-long is worth far more here than the same yards on a meaningless play, so it measures what the passing game actually did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it piled up.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the Lions lead at 12.03; the league average is 1.62.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

DET · 12.03

League average

1.62

Best to worst

19.45

All 32 teams, higher is better.

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DET · 12.03

League laggard

LAC · -7.42

League average

1.62

Spread (max − min)

19.45

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DET	12.03	10.41	100%
2	SF	11.43	9.82	96.8%
3	CAR	8.95	7.33	93.5%
4	JAX	8.40	6.78	90.3%
5	DAL	8.09	6.47	87.1%
6	BUF	7.06	5.44	83.9%
7	BAL	6.52	4.90	80.6%
8	KC	6.45	4.83	77.4%
9	LV	6.04	4.42	74.2%
10	CIN	5.51	3.89	71%
11	LAR	5.18	3.56	67.7%
12	GB	4.30	2.68	64.5%
13	NE	3.34	1.72	61.3%
14	HOU	2.96	1.34	58.1%
15	NYG	2.53	0.91	54.8%
16	SEA	1.65	0.03	51.6%
17	NYJ	1.22	-0.39	48.4%
18	CHI	0.64	-0.98	45.2%
19	CLE	-0.12	-1.74	41.9%
20	ARI	-0.13	-1.75	38.7%
21	WAS	-0.57	-2.19	35.5%
22	NO	-1.68	-3.30	32.3%
23	DEN	-1.76	-3.38	29%
24	MIN	-2.64	-4.26	25.8%
25	ATL	-2.90	-4.52	22.6%
26	PHI	-3.77	-5.39	19.4%
27	PIT	-4.10	-5.72	16.1%
28	IND	-5.94	-7.56	12.9%
29	TB	-6.25	-7.87	9.7%
30	MIA	-6.47	-8.09	6.5%
31	TEN	-6.75	-8.36	3.2%
32	LAC	-7.42	-9.04	0%

Does Exp pts pass matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 877–701–37 ATS (55.6%) across 2020–2025, #55 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2023 (136–122, 52.7%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	151–119–2	55.9%
2022	271	148–116–7	56.1%
2023	272	136–122–14	52.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	144–125–3	53.5%

Exp pts pass in 2026 vs 2025

Lions lead at 12.03 — they ranked #5 last year. Chargers are last at -7.42 — #26 last year.

The league average is 1.62, up 1.03 from 0.58 last year.

Biggest riser: Panthers, #25 → #3. Biggest faller: Colts, #12 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 19.45; 21 teams are within 5.46 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LV · +12.40

Biggest faller

IND · −7.85

Most consistent

ARI · −0.23

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▲ 1.03

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	LV	6.04	-6.36	+12.40
2	CAR	8.95	-1.61	+10.56
3	CLE	-0.12	-10.33	+10.20
4	BAL	6.52	-0.96	+7.48
5	NYJ	1.22	-5.88	+7.11
6	CIN	5.51	-1.06	+6.56
7	JAX	8.40	2.10	+6.30
8	DET	12.03	6.12	+5.91
9	SF	11.43	5.63	+5.81
10	KC	6.45	1.48	+4.96
11	MIN	-2.64	-6.06	+3.42
12	NYG	2.53	-0.27	+2.80
13	BUF	7.06	5.11	+1.95
14	DAL	8.09	6.16	+1.93
15	HOU	2.96	1.30	+1.65
16	TEN	-6.75	-8.09	+1.34
17	NO	-1.68	-2.97	+1.29
18	ARI	-0.13	0.10	−0.23
19	WAS	-0.57	-0.22	−0.35
20	SEA	1.65	3.34	−1.69
21	CHI	0.64	2.83	−2.20
22	ATL	-2.90	-0.44	−2.46
23	GB	4.30	6.99	−2.69
24	LAR	5.18	8.32	−3.14
25	DEN	-1.76	3.14	−4.91
26	PIT	-4.10	0.98	−5.08
27	PHI	-3.77	1.37	−5.13
28	TB	-6.25	-0.93	−5.32
29	LAC	-7.42	-1.99	−5.43
30	NE	3.34	9.25	−5.91
31	MIA	-6.47	-0.28	−6.19
32	IND	-5.94	1.91	−7.85

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 6.33

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -4.44

Biggest improver

DET · +1.77/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	6.33	−0.22	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
2	SF	5.99	+0.95	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
3	KC	5.90	−1.22	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
4	DET	5.42	+1.77	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
5	GB	5.33	−0.53	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
6	DAL	3.28	+0.79	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
7	CIN	2.90	+0.24	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
8	LAR	2.90	+0.85	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
9	TB	2.66	−1.95	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
10	BAL	2.63	+0.82	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
11	SEA	1.55	−0.10	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
12	JAX	0.85	+1.48	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
13	MIA	0.82	−0.91	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
14	LAC	0.64	−1.82	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42
15	MIN	0.41	−1.45	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
16	PHI	0.25	+0.23	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
17	HOU	0.07	+0.17	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
18	NE	-0.20	+1.01	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
19	LV	-0.31	−0.37	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
20	ATL	-0.56	−0.48	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
21	ARI	-0.58	−0.08	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
22	NO	-0.65	−0.82	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
23	DEN	-0.94	+0.61	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
24	PIT	-1.08	−0.43	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
25	IND	-1.17	−0.92	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
26	WAS	-1.96	+0.91	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
27	TEN	-2.08	−2.24	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
28	CAR	-2.31	+1.35	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
29	CHI	-2.52	+0.89	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
30	NYG	-3.01	+0.92	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
31	CLE	-3.68	−1.53	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
32	NYJ	-4.44	+0.87	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
SF	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
CAR	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
JAX	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
DAL	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
BUF	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
BAL	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
KC	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
LV	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
CIN	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
LAR	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
GB	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
NE	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
HOU	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
NYG	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
SEA	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
NYJ	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22
CHI	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
CLE	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
ARI	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
WAS	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
NO	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
DEN	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
MIN	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
ATL	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
PHI	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
PIT	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
IND	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
TB	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
MIA	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
TEN	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
LAC	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42

Exp pts pass since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (13.28), 2019 Ravens (8.56), 2020 Chiefs (11.50), 2021 Buccaneers (8.02), 2022 Chiefs (9.97), 2023 49ers (8.15), 2024 Ravens (9.81), 2025 Patriots (9.25), 2026 Lions (12.03).

Chiefs have led this stat 3 of 9 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 13.28; the worst Jets 2023 at -11.59.

The league average has risen from 1.35 in 2018 to 1.62 in 2026.

Week to week — Week 4 to Week 5

Since Week 4: Patriots up 11 (#24 → #13), Rams up 5 (#15 → #10), Bengals up 4 (#13 → #9); Bears down 9 (#9 → #18), Titans down 6 (#25 → #31), Browns down 5 (#14 → #19).

13 teams moved by two places or fewer.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_exp_pts_pass
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.