What Pass td perc (Off − Def) is

Touchdown rate thrown minus the touchdown rate allowed.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Rams led at 4.01; the league average was -0.03.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

LAR · 4.01

League average

-0.03

Best to worst

7.54

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAR	4.01	17
2	BUF	3.22	17
3	SEA	2.41	17
4	NO	2.34	17
5	CIN	2.33	17
6	DAL	2.25	17
7	TB	2.06	17
8	GB	1.46	17
9	KC	1.07	17
10	MIN	1.01	17
11	LAC	0.78	17
12	NE	0.58	17
13	SF	0.49	17
14	TEN	0.31	17
15	IND	-0.18	17
16	DEN	-0.22	17
17	MIA	-0.38	17
18	PHI	-0.71	17
19	ARI	-0.76	17
20	PIT	-0.81	17
21	CLE	-0.97	17
22	HOU	-1.08	17
23	LV	-1.11	17
24	NYJ	-1.45	17
25	BAL	-1.55	17
26	DET	-1.82	17
27	ATL	-1.84	17
28	WAS	-1.86	17
29	NYG	-1.89	17
30	JAX	-2.44	17
31	CAR	-2.66	17
32	CHI	-3.53	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAR · 4.01

League laggard

CHI · -3.53

League average

-0.03

Spread (max − min)

7.54

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAR	4.01	4.04	100%
2	BUF	3.22	3.24	96.8%
3	SEA	2.41	2.43	93.5%
4	NO	2.34	2.37	90.3%
5	CIN	2.33	2.36	87.1%
6	DAL	2.25	2.27	83.9%
7	TB	2.06	2.09	80.6%
8	GB	1.46	1.49	77.4%
9	KC	1.07	1.10	74.2%
10	MIN	1.01	1.04	71%
11	LAC	0.78	0.81	67.7%
12	NE	0.58	0.61	64.5%
13	SF	0.49	0.51	61.3%
14	TEN	0.31	0.34	58.1%
15	IND	-0.18	-0.15	54.8%
16	DEN	-0.22	-0.19	51.6%
17	MIA	-0.38	-0.35	48.4%
18	PHI	-0.71	-0.68	45.2%
19	ARI	-0.76	-0.74	41.9%
20	PIT	-0.81	-0.78	38.7%
21	CLE	-0.97	-0.94	35.5%
22	HOU	-1.08	-1.05	32.3%
23	LV	-1.11	-1.08	29%
24	NYJ	-1.45	-1.42	25.8%
25	BAL	-1.55	-1.52	22.6%
26	DET	-1.82	-1.79	19.4%
27	ATL	-1.84	-1.81	16.1%
28	WAS	-1.86	-1.83	12.9%
29	NYG	-1.89	-1.86	9.7%
30	JAX	-2.44	-2.41	6.5%
31	CAR	-2.66	-2.63	3.2%
32	CHI	-3.53	-3.50	0%

Does Pass td perc (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 911–667–37 ATS (57.7%) across 2020–2025, #20 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (159–104, 60.5%); its worst 2023 (144–114, 55.8%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	153–117–2	56.7%
2022	271	153–111–7	58.0%
2023	272	144–114–14	55.8%
2024	272	159–104–9	60.5%
2025	272	157–112–3	58.4%

Pass td perc (Off − Def) in 2021 vs 2020

Rams lead at 4.01 — they ranked #14 last year. Bears are last at -3.53 — #21 last year.

The league average is -0.03, down 0.04 from 0.01 last year.

Biggest riser: Bengals, #31 → #5. Biggest faller: Ravens, #3 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 7.54; 20 teams are within 1.83 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CIN · +4.94

Biggest faller

BAL · −4.51

Most consistent

TB · +0.05

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.04

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	CIN	2.33	-2.61	+4.94
2	DAL	2.25	-2.65	+4.90
3	LAR	4.01	0.28	+3.73
4	NE	0.58	-1.72	+2.30
5	NO	2.34	0.37	+1.96
6	LAC	0.78	-0.38	+1.17
7	NYJ	-1.45	-2.42	+0.97
8	SF	0.49	-0.28	+0.77
9	PHI	-0.71	-1.45	+0.74
10	BUF	3.22	2.73	+0.49
11	DET	-1.82	-2.18	+0.36
12	TB	2.06	2.01	+0.05
13	JAX	-2.44	-2.36	−0.08
14	KC	1.07	1.15	−0.08
15	MIN	1.01	1.18	−0.17
16	IND	-0.18	0.06	−0.24
17	DEN	-0.22	0.05	−0.27
18	NYG	-1.89	-1.50	−0.39
19	WAS	-1.86	-1.31	−0.55
20	ATL	-1.84	-1.14	−0.70
21	MIA	-0.38	0.40	−0.78
22	TEN	0.31	1.10	−0.79
23	CAR	-2.66	-1.86	−0.79
24	ARI	-0.76	0.13	−0.89
25	CLE	-0.97	0.12	−1.08
26	SEA	2.41	3.69	−1.29
27	LV	-1.11	0.29	−1.40
28	HOU	-1.08	0.51	−1.58
29	PIT	-0.81	1.14	−1.95
30	CHI	-3.53	-0.89	−2.64
31	GB	1.46	4.85	−3.39
32	BAL	-1.55	2.96	−4.51

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BAL · 1.94

Multi-year laggard

ARI · -1.77

Biggest improver

JAX · +0.96/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −0.76/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BAL	1.94	+0.37	2.96	-1.55	0.52	2.65	4.29	1.77	2.91
2	SF	1.81	+0.61	-0.28	0.49	2.50	3.53	-0.50	0.76	6.22
3	GB	1.75	−0.33	4.85	1.46	0.18	1.48	1.75	0.95	1.60
4	BUF	1.62	−0.61	2.73	3.22	2.42	1.74	0.95	1.70	-1.44
5	SEA	1.52	−0.26	3.69	2.41	1.03	0.40	-1.03	1.86	2.29
6	KC	1.28	+0.26	1.15	1.07	0.96	0.99	0.11	0.40	4.29
7	MIN	1.21	+0.07	1.18	1.01	0.75	0.95	2.64	0.34	1.62
8	CIN	0.90	+0.34	-2.61	2.33	2.66	0.25	1.36	-0.54	2.88
9	TB	0.62	−0.41	2.01	2.06	-1.61	1.17	2.86	-0.63	-1.54
10	LAR	0.61	−0.23	0.28	4.01	-1.12	0.49	-1.42	3.31	-1.28
11	PHI	0.47	+0.61	-1.45	-0.71	0.73	-1.08	1.33	2.65	1.81
12	NO	0.41	−0.46	0.37	2.34	1.52	0.70	0.60	-1.87	-0.79
13	DEN	0.31	+0.08	0.05	-0.22	-0.15	0.38	1.64	1.02	-0.58
14	DET	0.13	+0.51	-2.18	-1.82	0.33	0.17	4.13	0.49	-0.20
15	HOU	-0.04	−0.06	0.51	-1.08	0.56	1.55	-2.06	0.41	-0.14
16	LAC	-0.15	−0.03	-0.38	0.78	-1.09	-0.55	0.26	1.41	-1.49
17	JAX	-0.17	+0.96	-2.36	-2.44	0.03	-0.84	-1.53	1.23	4.71
18	NE	-0.22	+0.38	-1.72	0.58	-1.18	-0.41	-1.66	1.45	1.38
19	PIT	-0.29	+0.29	1.14	-0.81	-3.24	-1.43	0.29	-0.14	2.18
20	LV	-0.47	−0.11	0.29	-1.11	0.55	-0.14	-2.15	-0.48	-0.27
21	DAL	-0.49	−0.33	-2.65	2.25	0.88	1.75	-1.84	-1.29	-2.50
22	MIA	-0.81	−0.76	0.40	-0.38	0.81	0.54	-0.14	-0.84	-6.06
23	TEN	-0.90	−0.56	1.10	0.31	-0.79	-0.66	-1.56	-3.18	-1.50
24	IND	-0.93	−0.31	0.06	-0.18	-1.80	-0.59	-1.04	0.71	-3.68
25	CAR	-0.97	+0.60	-1.86	-2.66	-0.79	-1.72	-2.56	0.69	2.10
26	CLE	-1.02	−0.28	0.12	-0.97	-0.33	-0.44	-2.24	-2.26	-1.02
27	NYG	-1.05	+0.18	-1.50	-1.89	-0.45	-0.73	-2.04	-0.54	-0.17
28	NYJ	-1.14	+0.18	-2.42	-1.45	-0.30	-1.80	1.64	-3.96	0.28
29	CHI	-1.22	+0.02	-0.89	-3.53	0.44	-1.31	0.11	-1.10	-2.25
30	ATL	-1.38	−0.06	-1.14	-1.84	-0.54	-1.17	-2.12	-1.59	-1.30
31	WAS	-1.53	−0.10	-1.31	-1.86	-0.77	-2.73	0.52	-2.07	-2.49
32	ARI	-1.77	−0.53	0.13	-0.76	-2.34	-3.10	0.16	-0.96	-5.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAR	0.28	4.01	-1.12	0.49	-1.42	3.31	-1.28
BUF	2.73	3.22	2.42	1.74	0.95	1.70	-1.44
SEA	3.69	2.41	1.03	0.40	-1.03	1.86	2.29
NO	0.37	2.34	1.52	0.70	0.60	-1.87	-0.79
CIN	-2.61	2.33	2.66	0.25	1.36	-0.54	2.88
DAL	-2.65	2.25	0.88	1.75	-1.84	-1.29	-2.50
TB	2.01	2.06	-1.61	1.17	2.86	-0.63	-1.54
GB	4.85	1.46	0.18	1.48	1.75	0.95	1.60
KC	1.15	1.07	0.96	0.99	0.11	0.40	4.29
MIN	1.18	1.01	0.75	0.95	2.64	0.34	1.62
LAC	-0.38	0.78	-1.09	-0.55	0.26	1.41	-1.49
NE	-1.72	0.58	-1.18	-0.41	-1.66	1.45	1.38
SF	-0.28	0.49	2.50	3.53	-0.50	0.76	6.22
TEN	1.10	0.31	-0.79	-0.66	-1.56	-3.18	-1.50
IND	0.06	-0.18	-1.80	-0.59	-1.04	0.71	-3.68
DEN	0.05	-0.22	-0.15	0.38	1.64	1.02	-0.58
MIA	0.40	-0.38	0.81	0.54	-0.14	-0.84	-6.06
PHI	-1.45	-0.71	0.73	-1.08	1.33	2.65	1.81
ARI	0.13	-0.76	-2.34	-3.10	0.16	-0.96	-5.50
PIT	1.14	-0.81	-3.24	-1.43	0.29	-0.14	2.18
CLE	0.12	-0.97	-0.33	-0.44	-2.24	-2.26	-1.02
HOU	0.51	-1.08	0.56	1.55	-2.06	0.41	-0.14
LV	0.29	-1.11	0.55	-0.14	-2.15	-0.48	-0.27
NYJ	-2.42	-1.45	-0.30	-1.80	1.64	-3.96	0.28
BAL	2.96	-1.55	0.52	2.65	4.29	1.77	2.91
DET	-2.18	-1.82	0.33	0.17	4.13	0.49	-0.20
ATL	-1.14	-1.84	-0.54	-1.17	-2.12	-1.59	-1.30
WAS	-1.31	-1.86	-0.77	-2.73	0.52	-2.07	-2.49
NYG	-1.50	-1.89	-0.45	-0.73	-2.04	-0.54	-0.17
JAX	-2.36	-2.44	0.03	-0.84	-1.53	1.23	4.71
CAR	-1.86	-2.66	-0.79	-1.72	-2.56	0.69	2.10
CHI	-0.89	-3.53	0.44	-1.31	0.11	-1.10	-2.25

Pass td perc (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (3.87), 2019 Ravens (5.66), 2020 Packers (4.85), 2021 Rams (4.01).

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 5.66; the worst Raiders 2018 at -4.06.

The league average has fallen from -0.03 in 2018 to -0.03 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_pass_td_perc
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.