What Fourth down success (Off − Def) is

Fourth downs converted minus fourth downs opponents converted against this defense.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Panthers led at 0.94; the league average was 0.00.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

CAR · 0.94

League average

0.00

Best to worst

1.41

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CAR	0.94	17
2	CLE	0.71	17
3	NYJ	0.59	17
4	ARI	0.47	17
5	NYG	0.47	17
6	DET	0.35	17
7	CHI	0.18	17
8	WAS	0.18	17
9	CIN	0.12	17
10	PIT	0.06	17
11	LV	0	17
12	PHI	0	17
13	TB	0	17
14	BUF	-0.06	17
15	IND	-0.06	17
16	MIN	-0.06	17
17	NE	-0.06	17
18	TEN	-0.06	17
19	GB	-0.12	17
20	NO	-0.12	17
21	ATL	-0.18	17
22	DEN	-0.18	17
23	KC	-0.18	17
24	LAR	-0.18	17
25	MIA	-0.18	17
26	LAC	-0.24	17
27	BAL	-0.29	17
28	DAL	-0.35	17
29	SEA	-0.41	17
30	SF	-0.41	17
31	HOU	-0.47	17
32	JAX	-0.47	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CAR · 0.94

League laggard

JAX · -0.47

League average

0.00

Spread (max − min)

1.41

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CAR	0.94	0.94	100%
2	CLE	0.71	0.71	96.8%
3	NYJ	0.59	0.59	93.5%
4	ARI	0.47	0.47	90.3%
5	NYG	0.47	0.47	87.1%
6	DET	0.35	0.35	83.9%
7	CHI	0.18	0.18	80.6%
8	WAS	0.18	0.18	77.4%
9	CIN	0.12	0.12	74.2%
10	PIT	0.06	0.06	71%
11	LV	0	0.00	67.7%
12	PHI	0	0.00	64.5%
13	TB	0	0.00	61.3%
14	BUF	-0.06	-0.06	58.1%
15	IND	-0.06	-0.06	54.8%
16	MIN	-0.06	-0.06	51.6%
17	NE	-0.06	-0.06	48.4%
18	TEN	-0.06	-0.06	45.2%
19	GB	-0.12	-0.12	41.9%
20	NO	-0.12	-0.12	38.7%
21	ATL	-0.18	-0.18	35.5%
22	DEN	-0.18	-0.18	32.3%
23	KC	-0.18	-0.18	29%
24	LAR	-0.18	-0.18	25.8%
25	MIA	-0.18	-0.18	22.6%
26	LAC	-0.24	-0.24	19.4%
27	BAL	-0.29	-0.29	16.1%
28	DAL	-0.35	-0.35	12.9%
29	SEA	-0.41	-0.41	9.7%
30	SF	-0.41	-0.41	6.5%
31	HOU	-0.47	-0.47	3.2%
32	JAX	-0.47	-0.47	0%

Does Fourth down success (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 759–819–37 ATS (48.1%) across 2020–2025, #285 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (117–146, 44.5%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	130–124–2	51.2%
2021	272	122–148–2	45.2%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	133–125–14	51.6%
2024	272	117–146–9	44.5%
2025	272	120–149–3	44.6%

Fourth down success (Off − Def) in 2023 vs 2022

Panthers lead at 0.94 — they ranked #6 last year. Jaguars are last at -0.47 — #7 last year.

The league average is 0.00, up 0.00 from 0.00 last year.

Biggest riser: Bengals, #28 → #9. Biggest faller: Jaguars, #7 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 1.41; 21 teams are within 0.34 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CAR · +0.71

Biggest faller

LAC · −0.76

Most consistent

IND · 0

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.00

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	CAR	0.94	0.24	+0.71
2	BUF	-0.06	-0.75	+0.69
3	NYJ	0.59	0	+0.59
4	NYG	0.47	-0.06	+0.53
5	TEN	-0.06	-0.59	+0.53
6	CIN	0.12	-0.38	+0.49
7	KC	-0.18	-0.65	+0.47
8	NE	-0.06	-0.29	+0.24
9	WAS	0.18	0	+0.18
10	PIT	0.06	-0.12	+0.18
11	NO	-0.12	-0.24	+0.12
12	BAL	-0.29	-0.41	+0.12
13	CHI	0.18	0.12	+0.06
14	DET	0.35	0.29	+0.06
15	MIN	-0.06	-0.12	+0.06
16	IND	-0.06	-0.06	0
17	TB	0	0.06	−0.06
18	MIA	-0.18	-0.12	−0.06
19	LV	0	0.12	−0.12
20	ARI	0.47	0.59	−0.12
21	CLE	0.71	0.88	−0.18
22	GB	-0.12	0.06	−0.18
23	SF	-0.41	-0.18	−0.24
24	LAR	-0.18	0.06	−0.24
25	DAL	-0.35	-0.12	−0.24
26	ATL	-0.18	0.12	−0.29
27	DEN	-0.18	0.18	−0.35
28	PHI	0	0.41	−0.41
29	HOU	-0.47	0	−0.47
30	SEA	-0.41	0.06	−0.47
31	JAX	-0.47	0.24	−0.71
32	LAC	-0.24	0.53	−0.76

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CHI · 0.43

Multi-year laggard

SEA · -0.39

Biggest improver

NO · +0.21/yr

Biggest decliner

PHI · −0.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CHI	0.43	+0.13	0.25	0.18	0.12	0.18	0.82	0.24	1.20
2	CAR	0.38	−0.04	0.56	0.12	0.24	0.94	0.29	0.76	-0.25
3	CLE	0.33	+0.20	-0.88	-0.24	0.88	0.71	0.94	0.29	0.60
4	IND	0.28	−0.00	0.63	0.35	-0.06	-0.06	0.35	0.18	0.60
5	DET	0.27	−0.02	-0.06	0.71	0.29	0.35	0.59	-0.18	0.20
6	NYG	0.25	+0.08	0.19	-0.06	-0.06	0.47	0.47	0.12	0.60
7	NO	0.15	+0.21	-0.31	0.12	-0.24	-0.12	0.06	-0.24	1.80
8	ARI	0.15	−0.07	0.19	0.18	0.59	0.47	-0.35	0	0
9	WAS	0.11	−0.02	0.13	0.24	0	0.18	0.24	-0.24	0.20
10	NE	0.10	+0.17	0	-0.41	-0.29	-0.06	0.18	0.47	0.80
11	NYJ	0.08	−0.02	0.13	0.06	0	0.59	-0.35	0.12	0
12	CIN	0.07	−0.06	0.56	0.35	-0.38	0.12	-0.35	-0.24	0.40
13	LAC	0.05	−0.16	0.13	0.88	0.53	-0.24	-0.47	-0.06	-0.40
14	DAL	0.05	+0.03	0.44	-0.12	-0.12	-0.35	-0.41	0.53	0.40
15	LAR	0.03	+0.10	-0.06	-0.41	0.06	-0.18	0.41	-0.18	0.60
16	LV	0.02	+0.05	0.13	-0.53	0.12	0	0.24	0	0.20
17	JAX	-0.02	+0.01	-0.31	0.24	0.24	-0.47	0	0.35	-0.20
18	KC	-0.04	+0.19	-0.25	-0.53	-0.65	-0.18	0	1.06	0.25
19	PHI	-0.07	−0.18	0.50	-0.24	0.41	0	0	0	-1.20
20	DEN	-0.08	−0.07	-0.19	0.29	0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.24	-0.40
21	MIA	-0.09	−0.00	-0.25	0.12	-0.12	-0.18	0.29	-0.53	0
22	ATL	-0.10	−0.15	0.31	-0.06	0.12	-0.18	0.41	-0.29	-1
23	GB	-0.11	+0.01	-0.06	-0.12	0.06	-0.12	-0.59	-0.35	0.40
24	TEN	-0.16	+0.02	-0.31	0.06	-0.59	-0.06	-0.06	0.24	-0.40
25	HOU	-0.17	−0.01	-0.13	-0.12	0	-0.47	-0.35	0.06	-0.20
26	MIN	-0.18	+0.00	-0.25	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.41	-0.06	-0.20
27	TB	-0.23	−0.01	-0.38	-0.24	0.06	0	-0.59	-0.06	-0.40
28	PIT	-0.25	−0.14	0.31	-0.18	-0.12	0.06	-0.47	-0.94	-0.40
29	BUF	-0.26	−0.00	-0.19	-0.29	-0.75	-0.06	-0.06	0.53	-1
30	BAL	-0.26	−0.09	-0.25	0.41	-0.41	-0.29	-0.24	-0.47	-0.60
31	SF	-0.34	−0.04	-0.44	-0.06	-0.18	-0.41	-0.53	0.06	-0.80
32	SEA	-0.39	−0.10	-0.13	-0.53	0.06	-0.41	0	-0.94	-0.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAR	0.56	0.12	0.24	0.94	0.29	0.76	-0.25
CLE	-0.88	-0.24	0.88	0.71	0.94	0.29	0.60
NYJ	0.13	0.06	0	0.59	-0.35	0.12	0
ARI	0.19	0.18	0.59	0.47	-0.35	0	0
NYG	0.19	-0.06	-0.06	0.47	0.47	0.12	0.60
DET	-0.06	0.71	0.29	0.35	0.59	-0.18	0.20
CHI	0.25	0.18	0.12	0.18	0.82	0.24	1.20
WAS	0.13	0.24	0	0.18	0.24	-0.24	0.20
CIN	0.56	0.35	-0.38	0.12	-0.35	-0.24	0.40
PIT	0.31	-0.18	-0.12	0.06	-0.47	-0.94	-0.40
LV	0.13	-0.53	0.12	0	0.24	0	0.20
PHI	0.50	-0.24	0.41	0	0	0	-1.20
TB	-0.38	-0.24	0.06	0	-0.59	-0.06	-0.40
BUF	-0.19	-0.29	-0.75	-0.06	-0.06	0.53	-1
IND	0.63	0.35	-0.06	-0.06	0.35	0.18	0.60
MIN	-0.25	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.41	-0.06	-0.20
NE	0	-0.41	-0.29	-0.06	0.18	0.47	0.80
TEN	-0.31	0.06	-0.59	-0.06	-0.06	0.24	-0.40
GB	-0.06	-0.12	0.06	-0.12	-0.59	-0.35	0.40
NO	-0.31	0.12	-0.24	-0.12	0.06	-0.24	1.80
ATL	0.31	-0.06	0.12	-0.18	0.41	-0.29	-1
DEN	-0.19	0.29	0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.24	-0.40
KC	-0.25	-0.53	-0.65	-0.18	0	1.06	0.25
LAR	-0.06	-0.41	0.06	-0.18	0.41	-0.18	0.60
MIA	-0.25	0.12	-0.12	-0.18	0.29	-0.53	0
LAC	0.13	0.88	0.53	-0.24	-0.47	-0.06	-0.40
BAL	-0.25	0.41	-0.41	-0.29	-0.24	-0.47	-0.60
DAL	0.44	-0.12	-0.12	-0.35	-0.41	0.53	0.40
SF	-0.44	-0.06	-0.18	-0.41	-0.53	0.06	-0.80
SEA	-0.13	-0.53	0.06	-0.41	0	-0.94	-0.80
HOU	-0.13	-0.12	0	-0.47	-0.35	0.06	-0.20
JAX	-0.31	0.24	0.24	-0.47	0	0.35	-0.20

Fourth down success (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Broncos (0.56), 2019 Ravens (0.69), 2020 Colts (0.63), 2021 Chargers (0.88), 2022 Browns (0.88), 2023 Panthers (0.94).

The best season on record is Panthers 2023 at 0.94; the worst Browns 2020 at -0.88.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_success
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.