What Fourth down success (Off − Def) is

Fourth downs converted minus fourth downs opponents converted against this defense.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2020 the Colts led at 0.63; the league average was 0.

League snapshot — 2020

League leader

IND · 0.63

League average

Best to worst

1.50

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	IND	0.63	16
2	CAR	0.56	16
3	CIN	0.56	16
4	PHI	0.50	16
5	DAL	0.44	16
6	ATL	0.31	16
7	PIT	0.31	16
8	CHI	0.25	16
9	ARI	0.19	16
10	NYG	0.19	16
11	LAC	0.13	16
12	LV	0.13	16
13	NYJ	0.13	16
14	WAS	0.13	16
15	NE	0	16
16	DET	-0.06	16
17	GB	-0.06	16
18	LAR	-0.06	16
19	HOU	-0.13	16
20	SEA	-0.13	16
21	BUF	-0.19	16
22	DEN	-0.19	16
23	BAL	-0.25	16
24	KC	-0.25	16
25	MIA	-0.25	16
26	MIN	-0.25	16
27	JAX	-0.31	16
28	NO	-0.31	16
29	TEN	-0.31	16
30	TB	-0.38	16
31	SF	-0.44	16
32	CLE	-0.88	16

At a glance — 2020

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

IND · 0.63

League laggard

CLE · -0.88

League average

Spread (max − min)

1.50

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	IND	0.63	0.63	100%
2	CAR	0.56	0.56	96.8%
3	CIN	0.56	0.56	93.5%
4	PHI	0.50	0.50	90.3%
5	DAL	0.44	0.44	87.1%
6	ATL	0.31	0.31	83.9%
7	PIT	0.31	0.31	80.6%
8	CHI	0.25	0.25	77.4%
9	ARI	0.19	0.19	74.2%
10	NYG	0.19	0.19	71%
11	LAC	0.13	0.13	67.7%
12	LV	0.13	0.13	64.5%
13	NYJ	0.13	0.13	61.3%
14	WAS	0.13	0.13	58.1%
15	NE	0	0	54.8%
16	DET	-0.06	-0.06	51.6%
17	GB	-0.06	-0.06	48.4%
18	LAR	-0.06	-0.06	45.2%
19	HOU	-0.13	-0.13	41.9%
20	SEA	-0.13	-0.13	38.7%
21	BUF	-0.19	-0.19	35.5%
22	DEN	-0.19	-0.19	32.3%
23	BAL	-0.25	-0.25	29%
24	KC	-0.25	-0.25	25.8%
25	MIA	-0.25	-0.25	22.6%
26	MIN	-0.25	-0.25	19.4%
27	JAX	-0.31	-0.31	16.1%
28	NO	-0.31	-0.31	12.9%
29	TEN	-0.31	-0.31	9.7%
30	TB	-0.38	-0.38	6.5%
31	SF	-0.44	-0.44	3.2%
32	CLE	-0.88	-0.88	0%

Does Fourth down success (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 759–819–37 ATS (48.1%) across 2020–2025, #285 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (117–146, 44.5%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	130–124–2	51.2%
2021	272	122–148–2	45.2%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	133–125–14	51.6%
2024	272	117–146–9	44.5%
2025	272	120–149–3	44.6%

Fourth down success (Off − Def) in 2020 vs 2019

Colts lead at 0.63 — they ranked #7 last year. Browns are last at -0.88 — #15 last year.

The league average is 0, the same as last year.

Biggest riser: Steelers, #30 → #7. Biggest faller: Jaguars, #4 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 1.50; 24 teams are within 0.34 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2020 vs 2019

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PIT · +0.81

Biggest faller

CLE · −0.94

Most consistent

GB · 0

League trend 2020 vs 2019

– 0

Rank	Team	2020	2019	Δ
1	PIT	0.31	-0.50	+0.81
2	PHI	0.50	-0.19	+0.69
3	CHI	0.25	-0.38	+0.63
4	DAL	0.44	-0.19	+0.63
5	LAR	-0.06	-0.69	+0.63
6	WAS	0.13	-0.38	+0.50
7	KC	-0.25	-0.63	+0.38
8	ATL	0.31	0.06	+0.25
9	IND	0.63	0.38	+0.25
10	MIN	-0.25	-0.50	+0.25
11	CAR	0.56	0.38	+0.19
12	NE	0	-0.13	+0.13
13	CIN	0.56	0.50	+0.06
14	DET	-0.06	-0.13	+0.06
15	NO	-0.31	-0.38	+0.06
16	TEN	-0.31	-0.38	+0.06
17	GB	-0.06	-0.06	0
18	LAC	0.13	0.13	0
19	LV	0.13	0.13	0
20	NYJ	0.13	0.25	−0.13
21	SEA	-0.13	0	−0.13
22	TB	-0.38	-0.25	−0.13
23	BUF	-0.19	0	−0.19
24	NYG	0.19	0.38	−0.19
25	DEN	-0.19	0.13	−0.31
26	SF	-0.44	-0.06	−0.38
27	ARI	0.19	0.63	−0.44
28	HOU	-0.13	0.38	−0.50
29	MIA	-0.25	0.31	−0.56
30	JAX	-0.31	0.44	−0.75
31	BAL	-0.25	0.69	−0.94
32	CLE	-0.88	0.06	−0.94

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CHI · 0.43

Multi-year laggard

SEA · -0.39

Biggest improver

NO · +0.21/yr

Biggest decliner

PHI · −0.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CHI	0.43	+0.13	0.25	0.18	0.12	0.18	0.82	0.24	1.20
2	CAR	0.38	−0.04	0.56	0.12	0.24	0.94	0.29	0.76	-0.25
3	CLE	0.33	+0.20	-0.88	-0.24	0.88	0.71	0.94	0.29	0.60
4	IND	0.28	−0.00	0.63	0.35	-0.06	-0.06	0.35	0.18	0.60
5	DET	0.27	−0.02	-0.06	0.71	0.29	0.35	0.59	-0.18	0.20
6	NYG	0.25	+0.08	0.19	-0.06	-0.06	0.47	0.47	0.12	0.60
7	NO	0.15	+0.21	-0.31	0.12	-0.24	-0.12	0.06	-0.24	1.80
8	ARI	0.15	−0.07	0.19	0.18	0.59	0.47	-0.35	0	0
9	WAS	0.11	−0.02	0.13	0.24	0	0.18	0.24	-0.24	0.20
10	NE	0.10	+0.17	0	-0.41	-0.29	-0.06	0.18	0.47	0.80
11	NYJ	0.08	−0.02	0.13	0.06	0	0.59	-0.35	0.12	0
12	CIN	0.07	−0.06	0.56	0.35	-0.38	0.12	-0.35	-0.24	0.40
13	LAC	0.05	−0.16	0.13	0.88	0.53	-0.24	-0.47	-0.06	-0.40
14	DAL	0.05	+0.03	0.44	-0.12	-0.12	-0.35	-0.41	0.53	0.40
15	LAR	0.03	+0.10	-0.06	-0.41	0.06	-0.18	0.41	-0.18	0.60
16	LV	0.02	+0.05	0.13	-0.53	0.12	0	0.24	0	0.20
17	JAX	-0.02	+0.01	-0.31	0.24	0.24	-0.47	0	0.35	-0.20
18	KC	-0.04	+0.19	-0.25	-0.53	-0.65	-0.18	0	1.06	0.25
19	PHI	-0.07	−0.18	0.50	-0.24	0.41	0	0	0	-1.20
20	DEN	-0.08	−0.07	-0.19	0.29	0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.24	-0.40
21	MIA	-0.09	−0.00	-0.25	0.12	-0.12	-0.18	0.29	-0.53	0
22	ATL	-0.10	−0.15	0.31	-0.06	0.12	-0.18	0.41	-0.29	-1
23	GB	-0.11	+0.01	-0.06	-0.12	0.06	-0.12	-0.59	-0.35	0.40
24	TEN	-0.16	+0.02	-0.31	0.06	-0.59	-0.06	-0.06	0.24	-0.40
25	HOU	-0.17	−0.01	-0.13	-0.12	0	-0.47	-0.35	0.06	-0.20
26	MIN	-0.18	+0.00	-0.25	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.41	-0.06	-0.20
27	TB	-0.23	−0.01	-0.38	-0.24	0.06	0	-0.59	-0.06	-0.40
28	PIT	-0.25	−0.14	0.31	-0.18	-0.12	0.06	-0.47	-0.94	-0.40
29	BUF	-0.26	−0.00	-0.19	-0.29	-0.75	-0.06	-0.06	0.53	-1
30	BAL	-0.26	−0.09	-0.25	0.41	-0.41	-0.29	-0.24	-0.47	-0.60
31	SF	-0.34	−0.04	-0.44	-0.06	-0.18	-0.41	-0.53	0.06	-0.80
32	SEA	-0.39	−0.10	-0.13	-0.53	0.06	-0.41	0	-0.94	-0.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
IND	0.63	0.35	-0.06	-0.06	0.35	0.18	0.60
CAR	0.56	0.12	0.24	0.94	0.29	0.76	-0.25
CIN	0.56	0.35	-0.38	0.12	-0.35	-0.24	0.40
PHI	0.50	-0.24	0.41	0	0	0	-1.20
DAL	0.44	-0.12	-0.12	-0.35	-0.41	0.53	0.40
ATL	0.31	-0.06	0.12	-0.18	0.41	-0.29	-1
PIT	0.31	-0.18	-0.12	0.06	-0.47	-0.94	-0.40
CHI	0.25	0.18	0.12	0.18	0.82	0.24	1.20
ARI	0.19	0.18	0.59	0.47	-0.35	0	0
NYG	0.19	-0.06	-0.06	0.47	0.47	0.12	0.60
LV	0.13	-0.53	0.12	0	0.24	0	0.20
LAC	0.13	0.88	0.53	-0.24	-0.47	-0.06	-0.40
NYJ	0.13	0.06	0	0.59	-0.35	0.12	0
WAS	0.13	0.24	0	0.18	0.24	-0.24	0.20
NE	0	-0.41	-0.29	-0.06	0.18	0.47	0.80
DET	-0.06	0.71	0.29	0.35	0.59	-0.18	0.20
GB	-0.06	-0.12	0.06	-0.12	-0.59	-0.35	0.40
LAR	-0.06	-0.41	0.06	-0.18	0.41	-0.18	0.60
HOU	-0.13	-0.12	0	-0.47	-0.35	0.06	-0.20
SEA	-0.13	-0.53	0.06	-0.41	0	-0.94	-0.80
BUF	-0.19	-0.29	-0.75	-0.06	-0.06	0.53	-1
DEN	-0.19	0.29	0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.24	-0.40
BAL	-0.25	0.41	-0.41	-0.29	-0.24	-0.47	-0.60
KC	-0.25	-0.53	-0.65	-0.18	0	1.06	0.25
MIA	-0.25	0.12	-0.12	-0.18	0.29	-0.53	0
MIN	-0.25	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.41	-0.06	-0.20
JAX	-0.31	0.24	0.24	-0.47	0	0.35	-0.20
NO	-0.31	0.12	-0.24	-0.12	0.06	-0.24	1.80
TEN	-0.31	0.06	-0.59	-0.06	-0.06	0.24	-0.40
TB	-0.38	-0.24	0.06	0	-0.59	-0.06	-0.40
SF	-0.44	-0.06	-0.18	-0.41	-0.53	0.06	-0.80
CLE	-0.88	-0.24	0.88	0.71	0.94	0.29	0.60

Fourth down success (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Broncos (0.56), 2019 Ravens (0.69), 2020 Colts (0.63).

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 0.69; the worst Browns 2020 at -0.88.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2020.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_success
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.