NFL 2024 – WEEK 3 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

NFL 2024 – WEEK 3 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

The Algorithm went 10 – 6 in Week 2, putting the season mark at 19 – 12 -1.  It was a huge week for underdogs and away teams as vegas and the betting public overreacted to week 1 results.  Most of the week 3 spreads look a bit more logical, but there are a few head scratchers and injuries that trip up The Algorithm.

First, Miami is without Tua and right now are only 5.5 point underdogs to the Seahawks in Seattle.  I have to imagine that the Dolphins will try to approach this game with Thompson much like Green Bay did with Willis.  Don’t ask him to do too much, try to keep it close, and hope a timely turnover decides the game.

The one line that really jumps out is Minnesota getting 4 points at home to Houston.  I would agree that before the season, Houston would be favorites against Minnesota, even in Minnesota.  Now I am not so sure given how the Vikings have played the first two weeks.  The Algorithm sees Minnesota as a 5 point favorite getting 3 points.

The second line I think may not be reflective of 2024 is the Chargers at home, getting 7.5 points from San Francisco.  The Algorithm see the Chargers at home as a slight favorite (1.36 points), so getting a free touchdown to start seems a bit generous, particularly with no McCaffrey.

The third, and perhaps most eggregious line based on 2024, are the Saints getting 1 point at home vs Philadelphia.  The Eagles without AJ Brown are worse than with him, and I am not all that sure they are that great with him.  The defense folded like a cheap tent against the Falcons in the last minute to the point that it looked like a no contact drill.  Meanwhile New Orleans has looked mighty impressive through two week and should have a raucous crowd behind them.