NFL 2024 – Week 2 Game Spreads & Predictions

NFL 2024 – WEEK 2 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

The Algorithm went 9 – 6 – 1 in week 1 with two 0.5 point losses based on the early lines it picks on.  Had you bet later in the week the Algorithms would have gone 10 – 4 – 2, turning the Buffalo loss into a win(dropped from 6.5 to 5.5), and the Miami loss into a push(dropped from 3.5 to 3).

There are weeks I see the Algorithm picks and don’t bat an eye.  Sometimes I see them and bite a nail.  This week I am outright nervous.  To show how volatile the early power rankings can be when it starts to incorporate a new season’s stats, cheak out the power rankings page to see how week 1 peformances affected each team’s week 2 power rating.

Please remember that the Algorithm picks are at their most unpredictable early in a season.  Week 2 also sees the GB/IND line highly influenced by injury with Green Bay getting 3 points at home against the Colts due to Love’s MCL sprain.  We have New England who were +9 points last week, at home at -4 this week.

And then there is the ultimate worry….the Algorithm thinks that Carolina should be getting 2 points at home this week against the Chargers. Vegas is giving Carolina +6.5, meaning the Algorithm is picking the Panthers.

These are the same Panthers who put up 90.66 power rating in week 1.  The Giants, who were abysmal against the Vikings put up a rating of 93.32 in week 1.

Never has the refrain I always say been more true; The Algorithm picks on stats only.  If you are wagering on the NFL you must use your own handicapping skills and other resources to take into account all the non statistical factors involved in a game.

The week also marked the first time that the Algorithm and Vegas agreed on a spread to the hundredth of a point.  Both the Algorith and the Vegas spread have the Baltimore Las Vegas game at 9.50 points.  Only by taking the power ratings and spread calculation out to the thousandths, was it possible to get an Algorithm pick.  Baltimore is favored by -9.497 points and the Algorithm is being asked by Vegas to give up 9.500 points.  Thus, the selection, by 3/1000 of a point are the Raiders.

Please remember, the Algorithm is forced to make a selection in every game, you are not.  No gambler in his/her right mind would place a bet on a game they think there is a 0.003 point edge on.  The Algorithm can’t pass on a game, you can.