NFL 2024 – WEEK 13 Games, Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions
NFL 2024 – WEEK 13 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions
The Algorithm stumbled in Week 12 going 5 – 8. That sinks the season record back to .500 at 87 – 87 – 5.
Because the Algorithm emulates Vegas bookmaker formulas, it normally doesn’t stray too far from the Vegas line except when there is obvious injury or weather factors. In the chart below you can see there have only been 6 times all season when the Algorithm spread differs from the Vegas spread by 7 or more points. Considering it doesn’t account for injuries or weather, this is kind of impressive since we have had several backup QBs playing this year.
There hasn’t been a 7+ point difference in spreads since week 6, but we have one this week in Rams @ Saints. The power ratings and algorithm have New Orleans as a -4 point favorite and Vegas has them getting +3 points from the Rams. Pay attention to the news for the Saints this week as something is affecting this line.
There are three games with spread differentials between 4 – 5 points, but all involve QB situations that are murky. Raiders lost Minshew, Winston is a roulette wheel, and now rumblings out of NY saying Rodgers might want to play elsewhere in 2025. Based on 2024 performance, that elsewhere may end up being on the couch playing Madden like the rest of us.
NFL Week 12 vs. Spread
Favorites 8 – 5
Season 101 – 73 – 5
Home 6 – 7
Season 79 – 90 – 5
Neutral Games – 5 (Team Listed Home is 4 – 1)
NFL Week 12 Straight Up
Favorites 10 – 3
Season 125 – 54
Home 4 – 9
Season 88 – 86
Neutral Games – 5 (Favorite is 3 -2)
NFL 2024 Week 11 Picks
2024 Algorithm Record: 87 – 87 – 5
| Home | Rating | Spread | Rating | Away | Vegas Spread | Algorithm Pick | Spread Error |
| @ Detroit | 109.94 | -12.02 | 97.92 | Chicago | -11 | Detroit | -1.02 |
| @ Dallas | 96.87 | -1.55 | 95.32 | NY Giants | -4 | NY Giants | 2.45 |
| @ Green Bay | 106.68 | -6.88 | 99.8 | Miami | -3 | Green Bay | -3.88 |
| @ Kansas City | 104.46 | -9.17 | 95.29 | Las Vegas | -13.5 | Las Vegas | 4.33 |
| @ Atlanta | 101.98 | 0.46 | 102.44 | LA Chargers | 1.5 | Atlanta | -1.04 |
| @ Cincinnati | 103.22 | -1.97 | 101.25 | Pittsburgh | -3 | Pittsburgh | 1.03 |
| @ Minnesota | 106.32 | -5.12 | 101.2 | Arizona | -3.5 | Minnesota | -1.62 |
| @ New England | 97.31 | 1.13 | 98.44 | Indianapolis | 3 | New England | -1.87 |
| @ NY Jets | 101.71 | -1.64 | 100.07 | Seattle | 2.5 | NY Jets | -4.14 |
| @ Washington | 105.13 | -7.11 | 98.02 | Tennessee | -5.5 | Washington | -1.61 |
| @ Jacksonville | 96.46 | 4.59 | 101.05 | Houston | 5 | Jacksonville | -0.41 |
| @ New Orleans | 101.91 | -4.16 | 97.75 | LA Rams | 3 | New Orleans | -7.16 |
| @ Carolina | 96.04 | 5.52 | 101.56 | Tampa Bay | 6 | Carolina | -0.48 |
| @ Baltimore | 108.19 | -2.27 | 105.92 | Philadelphia | -2.5 | Philadelphia | 0.23 |
| @ Buffalo | 106.83 | -3.95 | 102.88 | San Francisco | -7 | San Francisco | 3.05 |
| @ Denver | 104.74 | -9.89 | 94.85 | Cleveland | -5.5 | Denver | -4.39 |
