NFL 2024 – WEEK 11 Games, Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

NFL 2024 – WEEK 11 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

The Algorithm had a solid week 10 going 9 – 5. ,  That puts the season record at 73 – 74 – 5.

Looking at the spread data we can see home teams are having a rough go of it so far in 2024.  Straight up home teams are 76 – 71 (there have been 45 Neutral field games, the favorites are 3 – 2on Neutral fields).  Against the spread, home teams are a dismal 64 – 78 – 5 (the teams listed as home in those games are 4 – 1).  Thus is you simply avoided neutral fields and bet on away teams all season your winning % would be high enough to turn a decent profit.  This trend continued again in week 10 as home teams were 6 – 7.

Watch the Lions-Jags spread.  It is Detroit -13, and that has to be under the assumption it’s going to be Mac Jones at QB for Jax.  The Jags stink but with Lawrence they shouldn’t be +13.  Jax +10 with Lawrence I could understand, but 13 seems a bit steep if he is playing.

At some point Vegas and the betting public are going to give up on the Jets and Cowboys.  However week 11 stills ees both of them as home favorites, NY at -3.5, and Dallas is somehow giving -1.5 to Houston.  Houston doesn’t play well on the road (2-3), but Dallas is 0 – 4 at home, and as mentioned home teams are struggling in 2024.

NFL Week 10 vs. Spread

Favorites 6 – 8
Season 83 – 64 – 5

Home 6 – 7
Season 64 – 78 – 5

Neutal Games – 5 (Team Listed Home is 4 – 1)

NFL Week 10 Straight Up

Favorites 9 – 5
Season 104 – 48

Home 7 – 6
Season 76 – 71

Neutal Games – 5 (Favorite is 3 -2)

NFL 2024 Week 11 Picks

Season ATS – 73- 74 – 5