NFL 2023 – Week 12 – Free Picks Odds Lines Spreads Over Under Totals

NFL Week 12 Picks

NOTE: Please ignore the “Yardage” stat in the drive charts.  It is used to figure out how far into opponent territory average drives end, and shouldnt have been in the chart.  I forgot to hide the column before screen capping the charts this week.

The NFL 2023 week 12 picks are in.  The Expected Point Matrix sees a beautiful clash of games in the late window on Sunday.  Browns @ Broncos features an all red Expected Point Matrix, meaning both defenses can stop both the run and pass of the other team.

Meanwhile in Philadelphia, we have an all green Expected Points Matrix signalling that neither defense is going to be able to the stop the run or pass of the opposing team.

And the Algorithm is going to ride the Texans & Vikings all the way to silicon valley where it plans to buy a 65 degree closet with scenic views using the cash its won on those two teams this year.  Best of luck to everyone this week!

UPDATE 11/26 – Sheet updated with 1pm final scores.

NFL Odds for Every Game of NFL Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Odds

• Opening point spread: Lions -7.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET Thursday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Lions -5.83
• Opening Line Error: 1.67
• Tues Line Error: 1.67
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 49.07
• Opening Over/Under Error: 2.57
• Tues Over/Under Error: 2.57

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

• Opening point spread: Cowboys -10.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Cowboys -11.86
• Opening Line Error: 1.36
• Tues Line Error: 1.36
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 45.96
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.54
• Tues Over/Under Error: 2.54

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds

• Opening point spread: 49ers -7
• Opening moneyline: 49ers TBA/Seahawks TBA
• Opening total: Over/Under 43.5 points scored
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday (NBC)
• Calculated Line: 49ers -4.19
• Opening Line Error: 2.81
• Tues Line Error: 2.81
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 47.07
• Opening Over/Under Error: 3.57
• Tues Over/Under Error: 4.57

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Odds

• Opening point spread: Dolphins -7.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
• Time: 3 p.m. ET Friday (Prime)
• Calculated Line: Dolphins -9.96
• Opening Line Error: 2.46
• Tues Line Error: 0.46
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 39.15
• Opening Over/Under Error: 2.85
• Tues Over/Under Error: 1.35

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Odds

• Opening point spread: Pick
• Opening total: Over/Under 46 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Texans -4.61
• Opening Line Error: 4.61
• Tues Line Error: 6.11
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 45.34
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.66
• Tues Over/Under Error: 2.16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Odds

• Opening point spread: Pick
• Opening total: Over/Under 34.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Steelers -2.27
• Opening Line Error: 2.27
• Tues Line Error: 0.77
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 41.86
• Opening Over/Under Error: 7.36
• Tues Over/Under Error: 7.36

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Odds

• Opening point spread: Pick
• Opening total: Over/Under 40 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Falcons -1.96
• Opening Line Error: 1.96
• Tues Line Error: 0.46
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 38.13
• Opening Over/Under Error: 1.87
• Tues Over/Under Error: 4.37

New England Patriots vs New York Giants Odds

• Opening point spread: Patriots -3.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 35 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Patriots -1.27
• Opening Line Error: 2.23
• Tues Line Error: 2.23
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 33.17
• Opening Over/Under Error: 1.83
• Tues Over/Under Error: 0.33

Tampa Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts Odds

• Opening point spread: Colts -1.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Colts -4.43
• Opening Line Error: 2.93
• Tues Line Error: 1.93
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 42.72
• Opening Over/Under Error: -0.72
• Tues Over/Under Error: +0.78

Carolina Panthers vs Tennessee Titans Odds

• Opening point spread: Titans -4
• Opening total: Over/Under 37 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Saturday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Titans -6.27
• Opening Line Error: 2.27
• Tues Line Error: 2.27
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 42.67
• Opening Over/Under Error: 5.67
• Tues Over/Under Error: 5.67

Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos Odds

• Opening point spread: Broncos -2
• Opening total: Over/Under 36.5 points scored
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Browns -2.94
• Opening Line Error: 4.94
• Tues Line Error: 5.44
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 37.05
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.55
• Tues Over/Under Error: 1.55

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Odds

• Opening point spread: Rams -2
• Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Rams -1.25
• Opening Line Error: -0.75
• Tues Line Error: +2.75
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 45.07
• Opening Over/Under Error: -1.43
• Tues Over/Under Error: +0.57

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds

• Opening point spread: Eagles -3 (-120)
• Opening total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Eagles -0.56
• Opening Line Error: 2.44
• Tues Line Error: 2.94
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 51.93
• Opening Over/Under Error: 4.43
• Tues Over/Under Error: 5.13

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds

• Opening point spread: Chiefs -9.5
• Opening moneyline: Chiefs TBA/Raiders TBA
• Opening total: Over/Under 43.5 points scored
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime)
• Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.66
• Opening Line Error: 4.84
• Tues Line Error: 4.34
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 40.06
• Opening Over/Under Error: 3.44
• Tues Over/Under Error: 4.44

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers Odds

• Opening point spread: Ravens -4.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 46 points scored
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
• Calculated Line: Ravens -4.66
• Opening Line Error: 0.16
• Tues Line Error: 0.66
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 48.87
• Opening Over/Under Error: 2.87
• Tues Over/Under Error: 2.37

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Odds

• Opening point spread: Vikings -3.5
• Opening total: Over/Under 45.5 points scored
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday
• Calculated Line: Vikings -7.65
• Opening Line Error: 4.15
• Tues Line Error: 4.15
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.27
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.77
• Tues Over/Under Error: 1.27