NFL 2023 – Week 11 – Free Picks Odds Lines Spreads Over Under Totals

NFL Odds for Every Game of NFL Week 11

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Odds

• Opening point spread: Ravens -3.5
• Opening moneyline: Ravens -195/Bengals +165
• Opening total: Over/Under 45.5 points scored
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime)
• Calculated Line: Ravens -13.37
• Opening Line Error: 9.87
• Tues Line Error: 9.87
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 40.87
• Opening Over/Under Error: 4.63
• Tues Over/Under Error: 5.13

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

• Opening point spread: Jaguars -6.5
• Opening moneyline: Jaguars – 300/Titans +240
• Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Jaguars -4.37
• Opening Line Error: 2.13
• Tues Line Error: 2.13
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 40.65
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.15
• Tues Over/Under Error: 0.15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Odds

• Opening point spread: Browns -4
• Opening moneyline: Browns -195/Steelers +165
• Opening total: Over/Under 37.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Browns -7.32
• Opening Line Error: 3.32
• Tues Line Error: 3.32
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 31.03
• Opening Over/Under Error: 6.43
• Tues Over/Under Error: 5.43

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Odds

• Opening point spread: Lions -10
• Opening moneyline: Lions -550/Bears +400
• Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Lions -8.00
• Opening Line Error: 2.00
• Tues Line Error: 31.50
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 47.07
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.57
• Tues Over/Under Error: 0.57

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Odds

• Opening point spread: Dolphins -10.5
• Opening moneyline: Dolphins -500/Raiders +375
• Opening total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Dolphins -12.48
• Opening Line Error: 1.98
• Tues Line Error: 0.98
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.45
• Opening Over/Under Error: 1.05
• Tues Over/Under Error: 0.05

Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers Odds

• Opening point spread: Cowboys -10.5
• Opening moneyline: Cowboys -650/Panthers +450
• Opening total: Over/Under 41.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Cowboys -7.69
• Opening Line Error: 2.81
• Tues Line Error: 2.81
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 39.82
• Opening Over/Under Error: 1.68
• Tues Over/Under Error: 1.68

Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans Odds

• Opening point spread: Texans -4.5
• Opening moneyline: Texans -200/Cardinals +170
• Opening total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Texans -9.33
• Opening Line Error: 4.83
• Tues Line Error: 4.83
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.69
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.81
• Tues Over/Under Error: 0.81

Los Angeles Chargers vs Green Bay Packers Odds

• Opening point spread: Chargers -3
• Opening moneyline: Chargers -170/Packers +145
• Opening total: Over/Under 43.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Packers -3.15
• Opening Line Error: 6.15
• Tues Line Error: 6.15
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 49.27
• Opening Over/Under Error: 5.77
• Tues Over/Under Error: 5.77

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Odds

• Opening point spread: Commanders -9.5
• Opening moneyline: Commanders -500/Giants +375
• Opening total: Over/Under 36.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: Commanders -8.58
• Opening Line Error: 0.92
• Tues Line Error: 0.92
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 40.20
• Opening Over/Under Error: 3.70
• Tues Over/Under Error: 3.70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers Odds

• Opening point spread: 49ers -10.5
• Opening moneyline: 49ers -650/Buccaneers +450
• Opening total: Over/Under 41.5 points scored
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
• Calculated Line: 49ers -10.96
• Opening Line Error: 0.46
• Tues Line Error: 0.46
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 45.55
• Opening Over/Under Error: 4.05
• Tues Over/Under Error: 4.05

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -7
• Opening moneyline: Bills -310/Jets +250
• Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Bills -8.71
• Opening Line Error: 1.71
• Tues Line Error: 2.21
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 38.78
• Opening Over/Under Error: 1.72
• Tues Over/Under Error: 1.22

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams Odds

• Opening point spread: Seahawks -1.5
• Opening moneyline: Seahawks -140/Rams +120
• Opening total: Over/Under 44 points scored
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
• Calculated Line: Rams -2.26
• Opening Line Error: 3.76
• Tues Line Error: 3.26
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 44.52
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.52
• Tues Over/Under Error: 1.48

Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos Odds

• Opening point spread: Broncos -1.5
• Opening moneyline: Broncos -130/Vikings +110
• Opening total: Over/Under 42.5 points scored
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
• Calculated Line: Vikings -4.40
• Opening Line Error: 5.90
• Tues Line Error: 6.90
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 48.55
• Opening Over/Under Error: 6.05
• Tues Over/Under Error: 5.05

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

• Opening point spread: Chiefs -3
• Opening moneyline: Chiefs -150/Eagles +130
• Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ABC/ESPN)
• Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.93
• Opening Line Error: 1.93
• Tues Line Error: 1.93
• Estimated Over/Under Total: 47.05
• Opening Over/Under Error: 0.55
• Tues Over/Under Error: 0.55

Monday Update

Wind (10mph) and rain expected. Rain expected to stop in second half, but wind looks like it will remain.

Expected Points saw Cheifs passing offense against Eagles Pass defense as a huge mismatch. Conversely, it also saw Eagles rush offense against Chiefs rush defense as a mismatch. Weather might negate the Chiefs best option.

Algorithm(10-3 this week) has the Chiefs -5 (47) but the weather may severely impact both numbers.

Expected Points Matrix Week 11

In Week 11, teams with a Net Rush EP over 19 went 4(Ravens, Bears, Cowboys, Bills) – 1(Dolphins) ATS

Teams with a positive(0.00 or higher) Net Rush EP went 6 – 2 ATS (Covered – Above + Rams, Vikings Loss – Dolphins & Commanders)

Eagles Net Rush Ep tonight vs Chief = 31.16