NFL 2024 – Week 1 Pick Results & Spread Data

NFL 2024 – Week 1 Pick Results & Spread Data

Against The Spread 9 – 6 – 1

Let’s preface this by saying Week 1 and Week 2 picks are based on 2023 stats so they are quite volatile.  After starting off 0 -5, with two 0.5 hook losses(Miami/Buffalo), the Algorithm looked like Michael Spinks vs Mike Tyson.  Granted the Buffalo line dropped to 5.5 by game time and some books had Miami -3, so the losses could have been a win and draw if the algorithm was allowed to make its picks with the late lines as opposed to the early lines.

Staring disaster in the face, the Algorithm rallied going 9 – 1 – 1 on the rest of the slate to post the final record of 9 – 6 – 1 for the week.  As noted this could have been 10 – 4 – 2 if you placed bets later in the week and picked up the Dolphins -3 line where available.

Pick of the Week – New England + 8.5 @ Cincinnati

I posted the Win Projections data to Reddit and got absolutely roasted by Bengals fans saying they could win 5 games with Jake Browning.  To say they were not impressed with the Patriots pick would probably be an understatement.  The Bengals played like a 5 win team last year without Burrow.  Since Burrow didn’t look like or play like Burrow against New England, they looked like and played like a 5 win team again.

Meanwhile, the Patriots, who sported the one of the best defenses in the NFL in the second half of 2023, picked up where they left off.  Playing low scoring, risk adverse football that keeps them in games and allows them to turn mistakes by opponents into victories.  If the Pats played in a different division I think they may have been able to sneak into playoff contention this year.

Punk of the Week – Atlanta -3 vs. Pittsburgh

Atlanta losing 18 – 10 to the Steelers while giving 3 points as a Home Favorite qualifies as a punk.  Although when you lose while giving up zero touchdowns it’s a bit of a tough beat.  Cousins looked rusty, as did the entire Falcon offense.  More worrying, Cousins did not seem particularly nimble.  Not that he was ever going to be Lamar Jackson, but even his pocket movement looked sluggish.

The most worrying part of the Cousins debut was the amount of time he spent NOT under center.  Cousins was always an under center, play action QB.  Now he is in Pistol formation half the game?

I am neither a doctor nor a Falcon insider, but could it be that Cousins injury is making it difficult for him to drop back from under center?  This is the only reason I can think of, outside a completely bonkers scheme, to have Cousins in pistol formation so often, negating his play action ability.  You would think a play fake to Robinson would suck in a defender or two because they have to respect the chance he does get the handoff, yet that didn’t seem to be in the game plan.

I have no idea what the Algorithm would say, but I would be leaning towards a play on the Eagles against the Falcons on Monday night.  The early line of Eagles -6.5 is better than Philadelphia -7, but if this game happened to be the week 1 game, I would think the Eagles at home might be -3 to -4.

That means the Falcons week 1 dud is costing 2 to 3 points on the -6.5 line.   This is almost a live betting game, as I would really like to see the Falcons first series and see how Cousins is moving and processing, and what formations they use.  If he looks better, 6.5 is a lot of points to give up with the Eagles defense.  If he looks sluggish and in the pistol again, I think I might lay the 6.5 points early.

NFL Week 1 vs. Spread

Favorites 9 – 6 – 1

Home 8 – 7 – 1

NFL Week 1 Straight Up

Favorites 12 – 3 – 1

Home 9 – 6 – 1

NFL Week 1 Spread Data

NFL 2024 – Week 1 Picks

NFL 2024 – WEEK 1 Spreads & Picks