2024 NFL Pre Draft Trades – Draft Trade Chart Values Of Traded Players & Picks
Time to analyze the 2024 NFL pre draft trades using the new AVG3xHill-Johnson NFL Draft Trade Chart that combines the Johnson & Hill charts used by many NFL Teams. For analysis we will assume teams are attempting to make even trades and no premiums are being paid.
Let’s start with a benchmark trade that involves picks. This will test both the chart values and the future round values for each chart that we created. Minnesota acquired Houston’s 1st round pick, #23, for (2) 2nd round picks(2024 & 2025) and a 2024 6th round pick.
Minnesota Gets Pick #23 from Houston for picks #42, #188, & 2025 2nd round pick
AVG 3xHill-Johnson Chart Values:
Minnesota – Pick 23 = 747.5
vs
Houston – Pick 42 = 453.0
Pick 188 = 17.1
2025 2nd Round Pick = 273.0
TOTAL = 743.1 to Houston
Johnson Values:
Minnesota = 760
Houston = 480 + 16.2 + 291(Johnson estimated future value) = 787.2
3xHill Values:
Minnesota = 735
Houston = 426 + 18 + 255(3xHill estimated Future Values) = 699
In this case, the new chart seems to have come the closest to showing an even trade. Barnwell reported that on the Johnson chart this trade equated to a 21% premium. That would mean that on Barnwell’s chart, Minnesota paid about 968 points(a 21% premium, 168 points over 800). To figure the value of the 2025 2nd round pick on the chart Barnwell used, it is simply:
968 – (480 + 16.2) = Value of 2025 2nd round pick
471.8 points – 2025 2nd round pick
471.9 points is the value of the 43rd pick in the 2024 draft.
So in this case, Houston valued Minnesota’s 2025 2nd round pick(471.9) almost exactly the same as their 2024 2nd round pick(480). This is a bit odd, as it would seem to be overvaluing a future pick.
Houston imposed no discount of the the future pick which is the norm, or at least we have been told that is norm. If Houston did devalue the 2025 2nd round pick, then the trade is a much more even trade with little to no premium paid.
2023 Carolina – Chicago Trade For The Overall #1 Draft Pick
Before looking at more of the 2024 pre draft trades, let’s go back one year and test the charts against the trade between Carolina & Chicago for the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
Carolina Gets 2023 Pick #1 from Chicago for picks #9, #61, & 2024 1st & 2nd round picks
AVG 3xHill-Johnson Chart Values:
CarolinaChicago – Pick 1 = 3000
vs
Chicago – Pick 9 = 453.0
Pick 61 = 17.1
2025 1st round pick = 636.8
2025 2nd Round Pick = 273.0
D.J. Moore = 559.7 (33rd pick)
Total = 3000
Johnson Values:
Carolina = 3000
Chicago = 1350 + 282 + 658(future 1st) + 291(future 2nd) + 409(D.J. Moore = 49th pick) = 3000
3xHill Values:
Carolina = 3000
Chicago = 1161 + 268 + 615(future 1st) + 255(future 2nd) + 709 (D.J. Moore = 24th Pick) = 3000
Analyzing the 2023 trade for the #1 pick, the three charts put the value of D.J.Moore somewhere between the 24th pick & the 49th pick, so a late 1st to early to mid 2nd. If Carolina and Chicago were arguing over whether Moore was worth a 1st or 2nd round pick, then settling on the value of the 33rd pick as seen in the new chart would seem to be a fair compromise.
2024 NFL Pre Draft Trades
Using the new Average 3xHill-Johnson chart, we can assign values to players who were traded for picks. The chart above summarizes the value of the player traded in terms of Average 3xHill-Johnson chart and the associated pick it is worth.
Brian Burns to NY Giants (524 points) Value = 36th pick
Carolina receives picks #39(484.5) & #141(38.8) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 501 pts (36th pick)
Johnson – 545.5 pts (36th pick)
Calvin Ridley to Jaguars (183 points) Value = 79th pick
Atlanta receives picks #79(183.0) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 171 pts (79th pick)
Johnson – 195 pts (79th pick)
Carlton Davis to Lions (108.0 points) Value = 99th pick
Tampa Bay receives picks #92(130.5) in the 2024 draft.
Detroit receives pick #201 in 2024 & a 2025 6th round pick.
3xHill – 129 – (15 +10) = 104 pts (101st pick)
Johnson – 132 – (11+7) = 114pts (97th pick)
Sam Howell to Seahawks (102 points) Value = 100th pick
Seattle receives picks #102(97) & #179(21.9) in the 2024 draft. (118.9)
Washington receives pick #78(188.5) & #152(31.8) in the 2024 draft.(220.3)
3xHill – Seattle 126pts Washington 210pts Howell Value = 84pts (111th pick)
Johnson – Seattle 111.8pts Washington 230.6pts Howell Value = 118.8pts (96th pick)
Keenan Allen to Bears (81 points) Value = 110th pick
Chargers receives picks #110(81) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 87 pts (110th pick)
Johnson – 74 pts (110th pick)
Jerry Jeudy to Browns (54 points) Value = 125th pick
Denver receives picks #136(43) & #203(11.1) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 60 pts (125th pick)
Johnson – 48.2 pts (124th pick)
Kenny Pickett to Eagles (48 points) Value = 130th pick
Philadelphia receives pick #120(61.5)
Pittsburgh receives picks #98(109.5) in the 2024 draft & (2) 2025 7th round picks(3+3=6)
3xHill – Philadelphia 69pts Pittsburgh 117 pts Pickett Value = 48 pts(135th pick)
Johnson – Philadelphia 54pts Pittsburgh 100 pts Pickett Value = 46 pts(126th pick)
Morgan Moses to Jets (39 points) Value = 141st pick
Baltimore receives pick #113(74.5) & #218(6.6)
Jets receive pick #135(43.3)
3xHill – Baltimore 90pts NYJ 48 Moses Value = 42pts (141st pick)
Johnson – Baltimore 72.2pts NYJ 38.5 Moses Value = 33.7pts (145th pick)
Ryan Bates to Bears (36.5 points) Value = 144th pick
Buffalo receives picks #144(36.5) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 39 pts (144th pick)
Johnson – 34 pts (144th pick)
Mac Jones to Jaguars (16 points) Value = 193rd pick
New England receives pick #193(16.1) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 18 pts (193rd pick)
Johnson – 14.2 pts (193rd pick)
Justin Fields to Steelers (9.5 points) Value = 211st pick
Chicago receives a conditional 6th round pick(9.5)* in the 2025 draft.
* Converts to a 4th round selection if Field plays 51% of snaps in 2024.(49.7 pts 129th pick)
3xHill – 2025 6th = 10 pts (215th pick) 4th round = 54pts (129th pick)
Johnson – 2025 6th = 7 pts (211th pick) 4th round =43 pts (129th pick)
Maliek Collins to 49ers (4 points) Value = 232nd pick
Houston receives pick #232(3.5) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 6 pts (232nd pick)
Johnson – 1 pts (232nd pick)
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson for Panthers CB Donte Jackson
Pittsburgh recieves pick #178(22.1) in the 2024 draft.
Carolina receives pick #240(2.0) in the 2024 draft.
Johnson is valued 20 points more than Jackson, or the equivalent of the 181st pick.
3xHill – Carolina 3pts Pittsburgh 24 pts Difference = 21 pts = Johnson – Jackson value (181st pick)
Johnson – Carolina 1pts Pittsburgh 20.2 pts Difference = 19.2 pts = Johnson – Jackson value (181st pick)
