Negotiating The Draft – 2024 NFL Draft Day Trades

Here is a follow up to the last article that tried to predict 2024 Draft Day Trade costs and premiums.  If you would like to read that article, here is the link: 2024 NFL Draft 1st Round Trades For Every Team.

We are going to use the same Draft Trade Value Chart we used before.  It is simply a sysnthesiszed chart that averages out the values of the two most popular NFL Draft Trade Value charts: The Johnson Chart & The Hill Chart.  The values at the bottom in the framed boxes are the value of picks in future drafts by round(i.e a future 2nd is worth 273.0 points).

Using the chart above for the pick values, here is every draft day trade with the following information included:

• PICK – The pick that is being traded for.
• VALUE – The chart value of the pick being traded for.
• TRADED UP – The Team Trading Up.
• POINTS RECEIVED – Total draft pick point value received.
• NET POINTS – Draft points gained or lost in trade.
• TRADED DOWN – The team that traded out of the slot.
• POINTED RECEIVED – Total draft pick point value received.
• NET POINTS – Draft points gained or lost in trade.
• PREMIUM – The % premium paid to move up(This can be negative in a “poorly negotiated” trade).
• PREMIUM VALUE – The draft pick value of the premium paid(This can be negative, in which case the pick is in bold).

2024 Draft Day Trade Summary

• The average premium paid among the 28 trades was 9.21%.
• The average amount of draft capital paid in premium was 28 points.  This is equivalent to the 163rd pick in the draft.
• The highest premium paid in points was 173.2 points by the Rams to the Panthers to move up to pick #39.  The premium cost was equivalent to the 82nd pick.
• The highest premium paid in %, was 124.72% paid for the 126th pick by the Lions to the Jets.  This involved paying for the pick by trading a future pick that is one round earlier.  The Eagles charged the Dolphins 93.66% to do the same deal on pick #120.
• The “best deal” in points savings was the Packers saving 8.3 point less than fair for pick #111 from the Jets.  The pick was worth 78 points yet the Packers only paid 69.7 points in value.
• The “best deal” in terms of % savings was the last trade in the draft.  The Lions saved almost 25% off fair value in trading for pick #189 from the Texans.

WHICH TEAMS WON OR LOST IN THE DRAFT?

Each trade is detailed below.  Each trade shows the picks received by each team and the player taken by the next traded pick.  If the pick was traded, it is noted.

By summing up the value of all net points, we can show the total value of draft points gained or lost by each team solely through trade negotiation.  Teams with a positive net points essentially gained a free pick via haggling(BOLD), while those with a negative value lost a pick via poor negotiation(ITALICS).

There are plenty of caveats to this list:

• The Panthers gained 173 points in the trade with the Rams(their only move), and lost 29 points in all other trades.
• The Cowboys gained all 104 points in one trade with the Lions.
• The Eagles won the draft.  They paid and charged premiums multiple times and still came out significantly ahead.  The Jets, Commanders, Bills & Colts all excelled on draft day.
• The Lions paid dearly but they are in win now mode.  The Rams pissed away all 173 points in one bold FU draft value move.  The Dolphins got fleeced by the Eagles.  But the big loser has to be Atlanta who screwed up pick #8 AND made a poor trade with the Cardinals for pick #35.  I am not even dure they picked the best DL at #35 given who was available.
• Teams should NEVER deal a future pick that is one round earlier than the pick they want in the current draft.  These trades are the most costly and probably have the least chance of success compared to the premium required(many times close to 100%).
• Teams should almost never trade for any picks beyond round 3, and definitely avoid trading for any 5th through 7th round picks.  The premiums paid on all these late round moves are significant.  They may not amount to many points, but they require significantly high premiums on hit or miss kind of prospects.

PREDICTIONS GONE RIGHT & HORRIBLY WRONG

Here were the projected slots for the best player at each position from the previous article:

• QB – #1
• WR – #4
• OT – #5
• Edge/OLB – #8
• TE – #10
• DT – #13
• CB – #15
• C/G – #26
• ILB, Safety & RB – Round 2

Here is where the best player from each position was actually drafted:

• QB – #1
• WR – #4
• OT – #5
• Edge/OLB – #15
• TE – #13
• DT – #16
• CB – #22
• C/G – #26 (The Steelers are moving pick #20 inside from OT.  I think this is true of the Packers selection at #25 as well)
• ILB, Safety & RB – Round 2

Mock 7 was the correct order by position for the 2024 draft.  It was projected as a 15% chance of happening.

First-round trades

For each trade you will see the picks each team received, the value of the picks, and the premium paid if any.  The players selected with the main picks are posted.  If the trade was worthy of comment, one was attempted.

Vikings Trade Up From #11 to #10 (1203.5)

Vikings Receive: #10 (1203.5) + #203 (11.1) = 1214.6

Jets Receive: #11 (1162) + #129 (48.5) + #157 (30.8) = 1241.3

Premium paid = 26.7pts (2.22%)

With the No. 10 pick, Minnesota selected Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.

With the No. 11 pick, the Jets took tackle Olu Fashanu from Penn State.

Chiefs Trade Up From #32 to #28 (643.5)

Chiefs Receive: #28 (643.5) + #133 (45.3) + #233 (3.5)= 692.3

Bills Receive: #32 (571) + #95 (120) + #248 (2.0) = 693

Premium paid = 0.7pts (0.1%)

With the No. 28 pick, Kansas City selects WR Xavier Worthy.  If KC called Buffalo and said they were going to take a guy with 4.2 speed for Mahomes….and Buffalo said, “We like what we are hearing, tell us more”….then this is borderline RICO case material.

Buffalo trades #32 to Carolina.  Not sure why Buffalo made such a fair trade with the team they have to beat…..a fine tip of the cap to them for “fairness” I guess.

Panthers Trade Up From #33 to #32 (571.0)

Panthers Receive: #32 (571) + #200 (13.2)= 584.2

Bills Receive: #33 (560) + #141 (38.8) = 598.8

Premium paid = 14.6pts (2.56%)

With the No. 32 pick, Carolina selects WR Xavier Legette

With the No. 33 pick, Buffalo selected WR Keon Coleman.  And then they charge the 2-15 NFC Panthers a premium…..

 

DRAFT DAY 2 TRADES

Chargers Move Up From #37 to #34 (542.5)

DRAFT DAY 3 TRADES