What Third down success is

Third downs converted into a new set of downs. The count behind the rate.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Colts led at 6.56; the league average was 4.98.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

IND · 6.56

League average

4.98

Best to worst

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	IND	6.56	16
2	BAL	6.50	16
3	JAX	5.94	16
4	ATL	5.75	16
5	DAL	5.56	16
6	PIT	5.50	16
7	LAR	5.38	16
8	TB	5.38	16
9	PHI	5.31	16
10	NO	5.25	16
11	KC	5.19	16
12	SEA	5.19	16
13	TEN	5.19	16
14	CHI	5.13	16
15	NE	5.13	16
16	HOU	4.88	16
17	CAR	4.81	16
18	NYG	4.81	16
19	DET	4.75	16
20	CLE	4.69	16
21	GB	4.69	16
22	MIN	4.69	16
23	WAS	4.69	16
24	LV	4.63	16
25	SF	4.56	16
26	BUF	4.44	16
27	NYJ	4.44	16
28	DEN	4.38	16
29	LAC	4.38	16
30	CIN	4.31	16
31	ARI	3.63	16
32	MIA	3.56	16

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

IND · 6.56

League laggard

MIA · 3.56

League average

4.98

Spread (max − min)

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	IND	6.56	1.59	100%
2	BAL	6.50	1.52	96.8%
3	JAX	5.94	0.96	93.5%
4	ATL	5.75	0.77	90.3%
5	DAL	5.56	0.59	87.1%
6	PIT	5.50	0.52	83.9%
7	LAR	5.38	0.40	80.6%
8	TB	5.38	0.40	77.4%
9	PHI	5.31	0.34	74.2%
10	NO	5.25	0.27	71%
11	KC	5.19	0.21	67.7%
12	SEA	5.19	0.21	64.5%
13	TEN	5.19	0.21	61.3%
14	CHI	5.13	0.15	58.1%
15	NE	5.13	0.15	54.8%
16	HOU	4.88	-0.10	51.6%
17	CAR	4.81	-0.16	48.4%
18	NYG	4.81	-0.16	45.2%
19	DET	4.75	-0.23	41.9%
20	CLE	4.69	-0.29	38.7%
21	GB	4.69	-0.29	35.5%
22	MIN	4.69	-0.29	32.3%
23	WAS	4.69	-0.29	29%
24	LV	4.63	-0.35	25.8%
25	SF	4.56	-0.41	22.6%
26	BUF	4.44	-0.54	19.4%
27	NYJ	4.44	-0.54	16.1%
28	DEN	4.38	-0.60	12.9%
29	LAC	4.38	-0.60	9.7%
30	CIN	4.31	-0.66	6.5%
31	ARI	3.63	-1.35	3.2%
32	MIA	3.56	-1.41	0%

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 850–728–37 ATS (53.9%) across 2020–2025, #105 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (155–109, 58.7%); its worst 2025 (134–135, 49.8%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	137–133–2	50.7%
2022	271	155–109–7	58.7%
2023	272	137–121–14	53.1%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	134–135–3	49.8%

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

LAC · 5.90

Multi-year laggard

SEA · 4.49

Biggest improver

CIN · +0.26/yr

Biggest decliner

PIT · −0.27/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	LAC	5.90	−0.12	6.19	5.88	6.82	5.35	5.29	6.76	5
2	BUF	5.83	−0.12	5.81	6.18	6.06	6.53	5.24	5.59	5.40
3	KC	5.78	−0.13	6	6.35	5.53	5.71	6.53	4.82	5.50
4	DAL	5.77	−0.04	5.50	5.82	6.18	6.76	4.94	5.18	6
5	TB	5.76	−0.00	5.38	6.18	5.47	5.82	6.47	5.59	5.40
6	PHI	5.59	−0.11	5.13	5.94	6.06	6.35	6	4.65	5
7	CIN	5.58	+0.26	4.81	5	6.06	4.82	5.88	5.71	6.80
8	ARI	5.37	+0.08	5.06	6	4.82	5.18	4.94	5.59	6
9	PIT	5.37	−0.27	6.06	5.59	6.24	5	5.41	5.06	4.20
10	NO	5.36	+0.08	5.88	4.65	5.35	5.41	4.47	5.18	6.60
11	SF	5.28	+0.13	4.94	4.82	5.59	5.06	4.94	6.24	5.40
12	LAR	5.26	−0.09	6.13	5.29	4.88	5.71	4.35	4.47	6
13	CHI	5.21	+0.24	4.44	4.47	5.41	5.76	4.47	5.71	6.20
14	BAL	5.15	−0.25	6.38	4.82	5.41	5.12	5.41	4.88	4
15	HOU	5.06	−0.03	5.31	5.65	3.94	5.24	5.18	5.12	5
16	JAX	5.04	+0.04	5.25	4.53	5.29	5.12	4.47	5	5.60
17	GB	5.02	−0.21	5.56	5.18	4.71	6.18	4.47	5.88	3.20
18	NYG	5.02	+0.20	4.56	5.06	4.65	4.53	4.88	5.29	6.20
19	ATL	5.02	−0.18	6.13	4.88	4.82	5.35	4.82	4.12	5
20	DET	5.01	+0.01	4.94	4.35	5.12	5.59	5.82	4.88	4.40
21	MIN	4.99	+0.05	4.63	5	5.47	5.18	4.82	3.65	6.20
22	WAS	4.94	−0.16	5.56	5.18	4.82	4.59	5.88	4.18	4.40
23	DEN	4.92	+0.03	5.13	4.94	4	4.76	5.35	5.82	4.40
24	IND	4.90	+0.00	4.94	5.12	4.53	4.94	4.88	4.88	5
25	LV	4.89	−0.06	5.69	4.59	5	4.65	4.65	4.29	5.40
26	MIA	4.81	−0.05	4.88	5.65	4.18	5.06	4.53	4	5.40
27	TEN	4.81	−0.23	5.25	6.06	4.76	4.29	4.76	4.35	4.20
28	NE	4.77	+0.01	4.81	5.41	4.47	4	4.53	5	5.20
29	CLE	4.75	−0.24	5.63	4.94	5.18	4.76	4.18	4.76	3.80
30	CAR	4.60	−0.03	4.88	4.94	3.82	5	4.47	4.35	4.75
31	NYJ	4.59	+0.08	4.38	4.59	4.88	3.65	4.94	4.71	5
32	SEA	4.49	−0.08	4.88	4.29	4.47	4.47	4.65	5.06	3.60

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_success
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.