What Third down success is

Third downs converted into a new set of downs. The count behind the rate.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Chiefs led at 6.35; the league average was 5.23.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

KC · 6.35

League average

5.23

Best to worst

2.06

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	6.35	17
2	BUF	6.18	17
3	TB	6.18	17
4	TEN	6.06	17
5	ARI	6	17
6	PHI	5.94	17
7	LAC	5.88	17
8	DAL	5.82	17
9	HOU	5.65	17
10	MIA	5.65	17
11	PIT	5.59	17
12	NE	5.41	17
13	LAR	5.29	17
14	GB	5.18	17
15	WAS	5.18	17
16	IND	5.12	17
17	NYG	5.06	17
18	CIN	5	17
19	MIN	5	17
20	CAR	4.94	17
21	CLE	4.94	17
22	DEN	4.94	17
23	ATL	4.88	17
24	BAL	4.82	17
25	SF	4.82	17
26	NO	4.65	17
27	LV	4.59	17
28	NYJ	4.59	17
29	JAX	4.53	17
30	CHI	4.47	17
31	DET	4.35	17
32	SEA	4.29	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 6.35

League laggard

SEA · 4.29

League average

5.23

Spread (max − min)

2.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	6.35	1.12	100%
2	BUF	6.18	0.95	96.8%
3	TB	6.18	0.95	93.5%
4	TEN	6.06	0.83	90.3%
5	ARI	6	0.77	87.1%
6	PHI	5.94	0.71	83.9%
7	LAC	5.88	0.65	80.6%
8	DAL	5.82	0.59	77.4%
9	HOU	5.65	0.42	74.2%
10	MIA	5.65	0.42	71%
11	PIT	5.59	0.36	67.7%
12	NE	5.41	0.18	64.5%
13	LAR	5.29	0.06	61.3%
14	GB	5.18	-0.05	58.1%
15	WAS	5.18	-0.05	54.8%
16	IND	5.12	-0.11	51.6%
17	NYG	5.06	-0.17	48.4%
18	CIN	5	-0.23	45.2%
19	MIN	5	-0.23	41.9%
20	CAR	4.94	-0.29	38.7%
21	CLE	4.94	-0.29	35.5%
22	DEN	4.94	-0.29	32.3%
23	ATL	4.88	-0.35	29%
24	BAL	4.82	-0.41	25.8%
25	SF	4.82	-0.41	22.6%
26	NO	4.65	-0.58	19.4%
27	LV	4.59	-0.64	16.1%
28	NYJ	4.59	-0.64	12.9%
29	JAX	4.53	-0.70	9.7%
30	CHI	4.47	-0.76	6.5%
31	DET	4.35	-0.88	3.2%
32	SEA	4.29	-0.94	0%

Does Third down success matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 850–728–37 ATS (53.9%) across 2020–2025, #105 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (155–109, 58.7%); its worst 2025 (134–135, 49.8%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	137–133–2	50.7%
2022	271	155–109–7	58.7%
2023	272	137–121–14	53.1%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	134–135–3	49.8%

Third down success in 2021 vs 2020

Chiefs lead at 6.35 — they ranked #6 last year. Seahawks are last at 4.29 — #26 last year.

The league average is 5.23, down 0.08 from 5.31 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #28 → #12. Biggest faller: Ravens, #1 → #24.

Spread between first and last: 2.06; 17 teams are within 0.58 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

ARI · +0.94

Biggest faller

BAL · −1.55

Most consistent

CHI · +0.03

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.08

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	ARI	6	5.06	+0.94
2	PHI	5.94	5.13	+0.82
3	TEN	6.06	5.25	+0.81
4	TB	6.18	5.38	+0.80
5	MIA	5.65	4.88	+0.77
6	NE	5.41	4.81	+0.60
7	NYG	5.06	4.56	+0.50
8	MIN	5	4.63	+0.38
9	BUF	6.18	5.81	+0.36
10	KC	6.35	6	+0.35
11	HOU	5.65	5.31	+0.33
12	DAL	5.82	5.50	+0.32
13	NYJ	4.59	4.38	+0.21
14	CIN	5	4.81	+0.19
15	IND	5.12	4.94	+0.18
16	CAR	4.94	4.88	+0.07
17	CHI	4.47	4.44	+0.03
18	SF	4.82	4.94	−0.11
19	DEN	4.94	5.13	−0.18
20	LAC	5.88	6.19	−0.31
21	GB	5.18	5.56	−0.39
22	WAS	5.18	5.56	−0.39
23	PIT	5.59	6.06	−0.47
24	SEA	4.29	4.88	−0.58
25	DET	4.35	4.94	−0.58
26	CLE	4.94	5.63	−0.68
27	JAX	4.53	5.25	−0.72
28	LAR	5.29	6.13	−0.83
29	LV	4.59	5.69	−1.10
30	NO	4.65	5.88	−1.23
31	ATL	4.88	6.13	−1.24
32	BAL	4.82	6.38	−1.55

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

LAC · 5.90

Multi-year laggard

SEA · 4.49

Biggest improver

CIN · +0.26/yr

Biggest decliner

PIT · −0.27/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	LAC	5.90	−0.12	6.19	5.88	6.82	5.35	5.29	6.76	5
2	BUF	5.83	−0.12	5.81	6.18	6.06	6.53	5.24	5.59	5.40
3	KC	5.78	−0.13	6	6.35	5.53	5.71	6.53	4.82	5.50
4	DAL	5.77	−0.04	5.50	5.82	6.18	6.76	4.94	5.18	6
5	TB	5.76	−0.00	5.38	6.18	5.47	5.82	6.47	5.59	5.40
6	PHI	5.59	−0.11	5.13	5.94	6.06	6.35	6	4.65	5
7	CIN	5.58	+0.26	4.81	5	6.06	4.82	5.88	5.71	6.80
8	ARI	5.37	+0.08	5.06	6	4.82	5.18	4.94	5.59	6
9	PIT	5.37	−0.27	6.06	5.59	6.24	5	5.41	5.06	4.20
10	NO	5.36	+0.08	5.88	4.65	5.35	5.41	4.47	5.18	6.60
11	SF	5.28	+0.13	4.94	4.82	5.59	5.06	4.94	6.24	5.40
12	LAR	5.26	−0.09	6.13	5.29	4.88	5.71	4.35	4.47	6
13	CHI	5.21	+0.24	4.44	4.47	5.41	5.76	4.47	5.71	6.20
14	BAL	5.15	−0.25	6.38	4.82	5.41	5.12	5.41	4.88	4
15	HOU	5.06	−0.03	5.31	5.65	3.94	5.24	5.18	5.12	5
16	JAX	5.04	+0.04	5.25	4.53	5.29	5.12	4.47	5	5.60
17	GB	5.02	−0.21	5.56	5.18	4.71	6.18	4.47	5.88	3.20
18	NYG	5.02	+0.20	4.56	5.06	4.65	4.53	4.88	5.29	6.20
19	ATL	5.02	−0.18	6.13	4.88	4.82	5.35	4.82	4.12	5
20	DET	5.01	+0.01	4.94	4.35	5.12	5.59	5.82	4.88	4.40
21	MIN	4.99	+0.05	4.63	5	5.47	5.18	4.82	3.65	6.20
22	WAS	4.94	−0.16	5.56	5.18	4.82	4.59	5.88	4.18	4.40
23	DEN	4.92	+0.03	5.13	4.94	4	4.76	5.35	5.82	4.40
24	IND	4.90	+0.00	4.94	5.12	4.53	4.94	4.88	4.88	5
25	LV	4.89	−0.06	5.69	4.59	5	4.65	4.65	4.29	5.40
26	MIA	4.81	−0.05	4.88	5.65	4.18	5.06	4.53	4	5.40
27	TEN	4.81	−0.23	5.25	6.06	4.76	4.29	4.76	4.35	4.20
28	NE	4.77	+0.01	4.81	5.41	4.47	4	4.53	5	5.20
29	CLE	4.75	−0.24	5.63	4.94	5.18	4.76	4.18	4.76	3.80
30	CAR	4.60	−0.03	4.88	4.94	3.82	5	4.47	4.35	4.75
31	NYJ	4.59	+0.08	4.38	4.59	4.88	3.65	4.94	4.71	5
32	SEA	4.49	−0.08	4.88	4.29	4.47	4.47	4.65	5.06	3.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	6	6.35	5.53	5.71	6.53	4.82	5.50
BUF	5.81	6.18	6.06	6.53	5.24	5.59	5.40
TB	5.38	6.18	5.47	5.82	6.47	5.59	5.40
TEN	5.25	6.06	4.76	4.29	4.76	4.35	4.20
ARI	5.06	6	4.82	5.18	4.94	5.59	6
PHI	5.13	5.94	6.06	6.35	6	4.65	5
LAC	6.19	5.88	6.82	5.35	5.29	6.76	5
DAL	5.50	5.82	6.18	6.76	4.94	5.18	6
HOU	5.31	5.65	3.94	5.24	5.18	5.12	5
MIA	4.88	5.65	4.18	5.06	4.53	4	5.40
PIT	6.06	5.59	6.24	5	5.41	5.06	4.20
NE	4.81	5.41	4.47	4	4.53	5	5.20
LAR	6.13	5.29	4.88	5.71	4.35	4.47	6
GB	5.56	5.18	4.71	6.18	4.47	5.88	3.20
WAS	5.56	5.18	4.82	4.59	5.88	4.18	4.40
IND	4.94	5.12	4.53	4.94	4.88	4.88	5
NYG	4.56	5.06	4.65	4.53	4.88	5.29	6.20
CIN	4.81	5	6.06	4.82	5.88	5.71	6.80
MIN	4.63	5	5.47	5.18	4.82	3.65	6.20
CAR	4.88	4.94	3.82	5	4.47	4.35	4.75
CLE	5.63	4.94	5.18	4.76	4.18	4.76	3.80
DEN	5.13	4.94	4	4.76	5.35	5.82	4.40
ATL	6.13	4.88	4.82	5.35	4.82	4.12	5
BAL	6.38	4.82	5.41	5.12	5.41	4.88	4
SF	4.94	4.82	5.59	5.06	4.94	6.24	5.40
NO	5.88	4.65	5.35	5.41	4.47	5.18	6.60
LV	5.69	4.59	5	4.65	4.65	4.29	5.40
NYJ	4.38	4.59	4.88	3.65	4.94	4.71	5
JAX	5.25	4.53	5.29	5.12	4.47	5	5.60
CHI	4.44	4.47	5.41	5.76	4.47	5.71	6.20
DET	4.94	4.35	5.12	5.59	5.82	4.88	4.40
SEA	4.88	4.29	4.47	4.47	4.65	5.06	3.60

Third down success since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (6.56), 2019 Eagles (6.50), 2020 Ravens (6.38), 2021 Chiefs (6.35).

The best season on record is Colts 2018 at 6.56; the worst Commanders 2019 at 3.25.

The league average has risen from 4.98 in 2018 to 5.23 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_success
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.