Offensive: Rushing · Exp pts rush
What Exp pts rush is
Expected points added by the running game: for every rush, the change in expected points before and after the play, summed over the season. A three-yard run on third-and-two is worth something here; the same three yards on first-and-ten is worth less. It values what the running game did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it gained.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2023 the Bills led at 2.64; the league average was -1.12.
League snapshot — 2023
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 2.64 | 17 |
| 2 | SF | 2.03 | 17 |
| 3 | CHI | 1.48 | 17 |
| 4 | ARI | 1.43 | 17 |
| 5 | BAL | 1.19 | 17 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.07 | 17 |
| 7 | KC | 0.62 | 17 |
| 8 | DAL | 0.62 | 17 |
| 9 | LAR | 0.44 | 17 |
| 10 | MIA | 0.13 | 17 |
| 11 | DET | -0.10 | 17 |
| 12 | WAS | -0.51 | 17 |
| 13 | TEN | -0.87 | 17 |
| 14 | SEA | -0.91 | 17 |
| 15 | GB | -1.07 | 17 |
| 16 | CIN | -1.10 | 17 |
| 17 | PIT | -1.21 | 17 |
| 18 | DEN | -1.56 | 17 |
| 19 | MIN | -1.67 | 17 |
| 20 | CAR | -1.80 | 17 |
| 21 | IND | -1.98 | 17 |
| 22 | NO | -2.04 | 17 |
| 23 | NE | -2.21 | 17 |
| 24 | CLE | -2.62 | 17 |
| 25 | LV | -2.81 | 17 |
| 26 | TB | -3.06 | 17 |
| 27 | JAX | -3.29 | 17 |
| 28 | ATL | -3.41 | 17 |
| 29 | HOU | -3.49 | 17 |
| 30 | LAC | -3.86 | 17 |
| 31 | NYG | -3.89 | 17 |
| 32 | NYJ | -3.94 | 17 |
At a glance — 2023
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2023
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 2.64 | 3.76 | 100% |
| 2 | SF | 2.03 | 3.15 | 96.8% |
| 3 | CHI | 1.48 | 2.60 | 93.5% |
| 4 | ARI | 1.43 | 2.55 | 90.3% |
| 5 | BAL | 1.19 | 2.31 | 87.1% |
| 6 | PHI | 1.07 | 2.19 | 83.9% |
| 7 | KC | 0.62 | 1.74 | 80.6% |
| 8 | DAL | 0.62 | 1.74 | 77.4% |
| 9 | LAR | 0.44 | 1.56 | 74.2% |
| 10 | MIA | 0.13 | 1.24 | 71% |
| 11 | DET | -0.10 | 1.02 | 67.7% |
| 12 | WAS | -0.51 | 0.61 | 64.5% |
| 13 | TEN | -0.87 | 0.25 | 61.3% |
| 14 | SEA | -0.91 | 0.21 | 58.1% |
| 15 | GB | -1.07 | 0.04 | 54.8% |
| 16 | CIN | -1.10 | 0.02 | 51.6% |
| 17 | PIT | -1.21 | -0.09 | 48.4% |
| 18 | DEN | -1.56 | -0.44 | 45.2% |
| 19 | MIN | -1.67 | -0.55 | 41.9% |
| 20 | CAR | -1.80 | -0.69 | 38.7% |
| 21 | IND | -1.98 | -0.86 | 35.5% |
| 22 | NO | -2.04 | -0.93 | 32.3% |
| 23 | NE | -2.21 | -1.09 | 29% |
| 24 | CLE | -2.62 | -1.50 | 25.8% |
| 25 | LV | -2.81 | -1.70 | 22.6% |
| 26 | TB | -3.06 | -1.95 | 19.4% |
| 27 | JAX | -3.29 | -2.18 | 16.1% |
| 28 | ATL | -3.41 | -2.30 | 12.9% |
| 29 | HOU | -3.49 | -2.37 | 9.7% |
| 30 | LAC | -3.86 | -2.75 | 6.5% |
| 31 | NYG | -3.89 | -2.77 | 3.2% |
| 32 | NYJ | -3.94 | -2.82 | 0% |
Does Exp pts rush matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 829–749–37 ATS (52.5%) across 2020–2025, #151 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2022 (146–118, 55.3%); its worst 2021 (129–141, 47.8%).
For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 139–115–2 | 54.7% |
| 2021 | 272 | 129–141–2 | 47.8% |
| 2022 | 271 | 146–118–7 | 55.3% |
| 2023 | 272 | 138–120–14 | 53.5% |
| 2024 | 272 | 141–122–9 | 53.6% |
| 2025 | 272 | 136–133–3 | 50.6% |
Exp pts rush in 2023 vs 2022
Bills lead at 2.64 — they ranked #5 last year. Jets are last at -3.94 — #22 last year.
The league average is -1.12, down 0.88 from -0.24 last year.
Biggest riser: 49ers, #16 → #2. Biggest faller: Giants, #3 → #31.
Spread between first and last: 6.58; 19 teams are within 1.86 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2023 vs 2022
| Rank | Team | 2023 | 2022 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 2.03 | -0.23 | +2.26 |
| 2 | ARI | 1.43 | -0.38 | +1.81 |
| 3 | IND | -1.98 | -3.78 | +1.81 |
| 4 | TB | -3.06 | -4.47 | +1.40 |
| 5 | LAR | 0.44 | -0.82 | +1.26 |
| 6 | WAS | -0.51 | -1.66 | +1.16 |
| 7 | DET | -0.10 | -1.25 | +1.15 |
| 8 | DAL | 0.62 | -0.45 | +1.07 |
| 9 | HOU | -3.49 | -4.27 | +0.78 |
| 10 | TEN | -0.87 | -1.58 | +0.71 |
| 11 | MIN | -1.67 | -2.36 | +0.69 |
| 12 | NO | -2.04 | -2.69 | +0.65 |
| 13 | BUF | 2.64 | 2.15 | +0.50 |
| 14 | MIA | 0.13 | -0.20 | +0.32 |
| 15 | DEN | -1.56 | -1.78 | +0.22 |
| 16 | SEA | -0.91 | -0.03 | −0.88 |
| 17 | BAL | 1.19 | 2.15 | −0.96 |
| 18 | CIN | -1.10 | -0.04 | −1.06 |
| 19 | NE | -2.21 | -0.97 | −1.24 |
| 20 | KC | 0.62 | 1.87 | −1.25 |
| 21 | CHI | 1.48 | 3.32 | −1.85 |
| 22 | JAX | -3.29 | -1.30 | −2.00 |
| 23 | GB | -1.07 | 1.06 | −2.13 |
| 24 | PIT | -1.21 | 1.01 | −2.21 |
| 25 | LV | -2.81 | -0.32 | −2.49 |
| 26 | CAR | -1.80 | 0.83 | −2.63 |
| 27 | NYJ | -3.94 | -0.98 | −2.96 |
| 28 | PHI | 1.07 | 4.37 | −3.29 |
| 29 | LAC | -3.86 | -0.17 | −3.69 |
| 30 | ATL | -3.41 | 1.05 | −4.46 |
| 31 | CLE | -2.62 | 2.06 | −4.67 |
| 32 | NYG | -3.89 | 2.25 | −6.14 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 2.71 | +0.70 | -0.16 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 2.64 | 3.33 | 3.38 | 5.28 |
| 2 | BAL | 2.58 | −0.04 | 4.92 | 0.74 | 2.15 | 1.19 | 3.52 | 2.87 | 2.69 |
| 3 | KC | 1.50 | +0.29 | 0.46 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 4.23 |
| 4 | PHI | 1.24 | −0.56 | -0.24 | 2.86 | 4.37 | 1.07 | 4.01 | 0.15 | -3.52 |
| 5 | CHI | 0.78 | +0.20 | -0.39 | -0.85 | 3.32 | 1.48 | -1.42 | 2.29 | 0.99 |
| 6 | ARI | 0.38 | −0.39 | 2.11 | 0.32 | -0.38 | 1.43 | 1.52 | -1.27 | -1.08 |
| 7 | WAS | 0.32 | +0.23 | 0.35 | -0.71 | -1.66 | -0.51 | 4.62 | 0.54 | -0.41 |
| 8 | IND | 0.11 | +0.38 | -0.33 | 2.93 | -3.78 | -1.98 | -1.12 | 2.38 | 2.67 |
| 9 | SF | 0.05 | +0.22 | -1.75 | -0.05 | -0.23 | 2.03 | 0.32 | -0.12 | 0.17 |
| 10 | GB | -0.20 | −0.96 | 2.33 | 1.31 | 1.06 | -1.07 | 0.72 | -0.28 | -5.49 |
| 11 | NE | -0.26 | −0.37 | 2.34 | 0.84 | -0.97 | -2.21 | -1.59 | 0.21 | -0.46 |
| 12 | TB | -0.47 | +0.30 | -0.11 | 0.99 | -4.47 | -3.06 | 1.97 | 0.38 | 0.98 |
| 13 | CAR | -0.51 | −0.12 | -0.26 | -0.79 | 0.83 | -1.80 | 0.45 | -0.69 | -1.32 |
| 14 | PIT | -0.53 | +0.41 | -2.60 | -0.83 | 1.01 | -1.21 | -1.87 | 0.44 | 1.35 |
| 15 | TEN | -0.55 | −0.71 | 3.54 | 0.54 | -1.58 | -0.87 | -2.81 | -1.25 | -1.44 |
| 16 | LAR | -0.62 | +0.32 | -1.70 | -1.66 | -0.82 | 0.44 | -1.15 | 0.68 | -0.13 |
| 17 | DAL | -0.64 | +0.05 | -0.96 | -0.71 | -0.45 | 0.62 | -2.81 | 0.13 | -0.28 |
| 18 | CLE | -0.73 | −0.90 | 0.35 | 2.32 | 2.06 | -2.62 | -1.52 | -1.18 | -4.52 |
| 19 | DET | -0.79 | +0.40 | -2.22 | -2.24 | -1.25 | -0.10 | 1.51 | -1.10 | -0.14 |
| 20 | CIN | -0.86 | +0.31 | -2.87 | -1.25 | -0.04 | -1.10 | -0.24 | 0.54 | -1.06 |
| 21 | SEA | -1.00 | −0.99 | 0.99 | 1.47 | -0.03 | -0.91 | -1.21 | -1.42 | -5.93 |
| 22 | ATL | -1.01 | +0.57 | -2.35 | -3.37 | 1.05 | -3.41 | 0.43 | -0.86 | 1.48 |
| 23 | JAX | -1.03 | +0.22 | -0.76 | -1.29 | -1.30 | -3.29 | -0.67 | -0.18 | 0.29 |
| 24 | NYG | -1.14 | −0.24 | -0.52 | -2.05 | 2.25 | -3.89 | -1.09 | 1.05 | -3.73 |
| 25 | DEN | -1.26 | +0.15 | -1.95 | -1.37 | -1.78 | -1.56 | -0.13 | 0.01 | -2.04 |
| 26 | NO | -1.37 | −0.31 | 1.80 | -2.29 | -2.69 | -2.04 | 0.07 | -2.54 | -1.90 |
| 27 | MIA | -1.44 | +0.20 | -1.48 | -3.29 | -0.20 | 0.13 | -4.76 | -0.65 | 0.14 |
| 28 | MIN | -1.47 | −0.31 | 0.91 | -1.94 | -2.36 | -1.67 | -1.58 | -0.35 | -3.27 |
| 29 | LAC | -1.81 | −0.23 | -3.16 | 0.14 | -0.17 | -3.86 | -0.82 | 0.50 | -5.30 |
| 30 | NYJ | -1.95 | −0.09 | -2.53 | -0.64 | -0.98 | -3.94 | -1.30 | -1.63 | -2.65 |
| 31 | HOU | -2.79 | +0.07 | -1.33 | -3.85 | -4.27 | -3.49 | -1.82 | -2.12 | -2.65 |
| 32 | LV | -3.19 | −1.00 | -0.17 | -2.46 | -0.32 | -2.81 | -5.17 | -5.58 | -5.79 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | -0.16 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 2.64 | 3.33 | 3.38 | 5.28 |
| SF | -1.75 | -0.05 | -0.23 | 2.03 | 0.32 | -0.12 | 0.17 |
| CHI | -0.39 | -0.85 | 3.32 | 1.48 | -1.42 | 2.29 | 0.99 |
| ARI | 2.11 | 0.32 | -0.38 | 1.43 | 1.52 | -1.27 | -1.08 |
| BAL | 4.92 | 0.74 | 2.15 | 1.19 | 3.52 | 2.87 | 2.69 |
| PHI | -0.24 | 2.86 | 4.37 | 1.07 | 4.01 | 0.15 | -3.52 |
| KC | 0.46 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 4.23 |
| DAL | -0.96 | -0.71 | -0.45 | 0.62 | -2.81 | 0.13 | -0.28 |
| LAR | -1.70 | -1.66 | -0.82 | 0.44 | -1.15 | 0.68 | -0.13 |
| MIA | -1.48 | -3.29 | -0.20 | 0.13 | -4.76 | -0.65 | 0.14 |
| DET | -2.22 | -2.24 | -1.25 | -0.10 | 1.51 | -1.10 | -0.14 |
| WAS | 0.35 | -0.71 | -1.66 | -0.51 | 4.62 | 0.54 | -0.41 |
| TEN | 3.54 | 0.54 | -1.58 | -0.87 | -2.81 | -1.25 | -1.44 |
| SEA | 0.99 | 1.47 | -0.03 | -0.91 | -1.21 | -1.42 | -5.93 |
| GB | 2.33 | 1.31 | 1.06 | -1.07 | 0.72 | -0.28 | -5.49 |
| CIN | -2.87 | -1.25 | -0.04 | -1.10 | -0.24 | 0.54 | -1.06 |
| PIT | -2.60 | -0.83 | 1.01 | -1.21 | -1.87 | 0.44 | 1.35 |
| DEN | -1.95 | -1.37 | -1.78 | -1.56 | -0.13 | 0.01 | -2.04 |
| MIN | 0.91 | -1.94 | -2.36 | -1.67 | -1.58 | -0.35 | -3.27 |
| CAR | -0.26 | -0.79 | 0.83 | -1.80 | 0.45 | -0.69 | -1.32 |
| IND | -0.33 | 2.93 | -3.78 | -1.98 | -1.12 | 2.38 | 2.67 |
| NO | 1.80 | -2.29 | -2.69 | -2.04 | 0.07 | -2.54 | -1.90 |
| NE | 2.34 | 0.84 | -0.97 | -2.21 | -1.59 | 0.21 | -0.46 |
| CLE | 0.35 | 2.32 | 2.06 | -2.62 | -1.52 | -1.18 | -4.52 |
| LV | -0.17 | -2.46 | -0.32 | -2.81 | -5.17 | -5.58 | -5.79 |
| TB | -0.11 | 0.99 | -4.47 | -3.06 | 1.97 | 0.38 | 0.98 |
| JAX | -0.76 | -1.29 | -1.30 | -3.29 | -0.67 | -0.18 | 0.29 |
| ATL | -2.35 | -3.37 | 1.05 | -3.41 | 0.43 | -0.86 | 1.48 |
| HOU | -1.33 | -3.85 | -4.27 | -3.49 | -1.82 | -2.12 | -2.65 |
| LAC | -3.16 | 0.14 | -0.17 | -3.86 | -0.82 | 0.50 | -5.30 |
| NYG | -0.52 | -2.05 | 2.25 | -3.89 | -1.09 | 1.05 | -3.73 |
| NYJ | -2.53 | -0.64 | -0.98 | -3.94 | -1.30 | -1.63 | -2.65 |
Exp pts rush since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Rams (2.40), 2019 Ravens (5.31), 2020 Ravens (4.92), 2021 Colts (2.93), 2022 Eagles (4.37), 2023 Bills (2.64).
Ravens have led this stat 2 of 6 seasons.
The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 5.31; the worst Steelers 2019 at -5.48.
The league average has fallen from -0.75 in 2018 to -1.12 in 2023.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- off_rushing_exp_pts_rush
- Side
- offensive
- Family
- Rushing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.