What Pass td perc is

Touchdown rate: passing touchdowns divided by pass attempts, as a percentage. The share of throws that scored — a rate rather than a count, and noisy in small samples because touchdowns are rare events.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the 49ers led at 6.72; the league average was 4.10.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

SF · 6.72

League average

4.10

Best to worst

4.90

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	SF	6.72	17
2	DAL	5.83	17
3	GB	5.48	17
4	BAL	5.45	17
5	DEN	5.43	17
6	MIA	5.28	17
7	BUF	4.97	17
8	DET	4.91	17
9	TB	4.90	17
10	MIN	4.75	17
11	NO	4.61	17
12	HOU	4.52	17
13	LAR	4.42	17
14	KC	4.41	17
15	CIN	4.38	17
16	PHI	4.26	17
17	SEA	3.98	17
18	CLE	3.83	17
19	LAC	3.79	17
20	WAS	3.76	17
21	CHI	3.68	17
22	LV	3.58	17
23	JAX	3.53	17
24	ARI	3.20	17
25	ATL	3.19	17
26	IND	3.11	17
27	NYG	2.88	17
28	NE	2.87	17
29	TEN	2.83	17
30	PIT	2.56	17
31	CAR	2.21	17
32	NYJ	1.82	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

SF · 6.72

League laggard

NYJ · 1.82

League average

4.10

Spread (max − min)

4.90

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	SF	6.72	2.62	100%
2	DAL	5.83	1.74	96.8%
3	GB	5.48	1.38	93.5%
4	BAL	5.45	1.36	90.3%
5	DEN	5.43	1.33	87.1%
6	MIA	5.28	1.18	83.9%
7	BUF	4.97	0.88	80.6%
8	DET	4.91	0.81	77.4%
9	TB	4.90	0.80	74.2%
10	MIN	4.75	0.65	71%
11	NO	4.61	0.51	67.7%
12	HOU	4.52	0.42	64.5%
13	LAR	4.42	0.32	61.3%
14	KC	4.41	0.31	58.1%
15	CIN	4.38	0.28	54.8%
16	PHI	4.26	0.16	51.6%
17	SEA	3.98	-0.12	48.4%
18	CLE	3.83	-0.26	45.2%
19	LAC	3.79	-0.31	41.9%
20	WAS	3.76	-0.34	38.7%
21	CHI	3.68	-0.42	35.5%
22	LV	3.58	-0.52	32.3%
23	JAX	3.53	-0.57	29%
24	ARI	3.20	-0.90	25.8%
25	ATL	3.19	-0.91	22.6%
26	IND	3.11	-0.99	19.4%
27	NYG	2.88	-1.22	16.1%
28	NE	2.87	-1.23	12.9%
29	TEN	2.83	-1.27	9.7%
30	PIT	2.56	-1.54	6.5%
31	CAR	2.21	-1.88	3.2%
32	NYJ	1.82	-2.27	0%

Does Pass td perc matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 875–703–37 ATS (55.4%) across 2020–2025, #60 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2023 (146–112, 56.6%); its worst 2025 (147–122, 54.6%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	148–122–2	54.8%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	146–112–14	56.6%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Pass td perc in 2023 vs 2022

49ers lead at 6.72 — they ranked #3 last year. Jets are last at 1.82 — #31 last year.

The league average is 4.10, down 0.04 from 4.14 last year.

Biggest riser: Broncos, #27 → #5. Biggest faller: Chiefs, #1 → #14.

Spread between first and last: 4.90; 20 teams are within 1.11 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DEN · +2.28

Biggest faller

KC · −1.86

Most consistent

DET · −0.01

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -0.04

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	DEN	5.43	3.15	+2.28
2	BAL	5.45	3.89	+1.57
3	TB	4.90	3.43	+1.46
4	LAR	4.42	3.01	+1.41
5	HOU	4.52	3.43	+1.09
6	SF	6.72	5.86	+0.86
7	DAL	5.83	5.03	+0.81
8	GB	5.48	4.77	+0.71
9	ARI	3.20	2.53	+0.67
10	PIT	2.56	2.09	+0.47
11	CLE	3.83	3.51	+0.33
12	IND	3.11	2.80	+0.31
13	MIN	4.75	4.44	+0.31
14	MIA	5.28	5.12	+0.16
15	LAC	3.79	3.65	+0.14
16	DET	4.91	4.92	−0.01
17	NO	4.61	4.67	−0.06
18	NYG	2.88	3.24	−0.36
19	PHI	4.26	4.66	−0.40
20	WAS	3.76	4.28	−0.52
21	NYJ	1.82	2.39	−0.57
22	NE	2.87	3.49	−0.63
23	JAX	3.53	4.15	−0.63
24	TEN	2.83	3.50	−0.67
25	ATL	3.19	4.08	−0.89
26	BUF	4.97	6.09	−1.11
27	LV	3.58	4.75	−1.18
28	SEA	3.98	5.22	−1.24
29	CAR	2.21	3.49	−1.28
30	CHI	3.68	4.97	−1.29
31	CIN	4.38	5.69	−1.31
32	KC	4.41	6.27	−1.86

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

GB · 6.06

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 3.26

Biggest improver

JAX · +0.52/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −0.60/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	GB	6.06	−0.45	9.13	6.55	4.77	5.48	5.80	5.30	5.38
2	SF	5.87	+0.50	4.36	5.04	5.86	6.72	4.31	5.70	9.09
3	BUF	5.67	−0.18	6.70	5.46	6.09	4.97	5.76	5.75	4.96
4	BAL	5.59	+0.22	6.63	3.40	3.89	5.45	8.56	5.42	5.80
5	SEA	5.50	−0.08	7.08	6.04	5.22	3.98	3.52	5.18	7.48
6	CIN	5.40	+0.24	3.27	6.45	5.69	4.38	6.57	5.59	5.82
7	KC	5.38	−0.11	6.32	5.47	6.27	4.41	4.32	3.92	6.98
8	DET	5.38	+0.41	4.61	3.84	4.92	4.91	7.07	6.01	6.28
9	TB	5.04	−0.39	6.69	5.87	3.43	4.90	7.14	4.61	2.65
10	MIN	5.01	−0.40	6.68	5.60	4.44	4.75	6.38	3.69	3.55
11	DAL	4.87	−0.06	3.90	6.13	5.03	5.83	3.59	4.94	4.64
12	LAR	4.75	+0.18	3.38	6.72	3.01	4.42	3.91	7.69	4.09
13	PHI	4.61	+0.27	3.64	4.02	4.66	4.26	5.35	5.21	5.16
14	NO	4.53	−0.32	5.35	5.71	4.67	4.61	3.78	3.21	4.37
15	LAC	4.35	−0.20	4.92	5.57	3.65	3.79	4.48	4.57	3.47
16	LV	4.35	+0.11	5.07	3.65	4.75	3.58	2.98	3.87	6.56
17	JAX	4.17	+0.52	4.01	1.97	4.15	3.53	3.44	5.13	6.94
18	DEN	4.14	+0.09	3.74	3.68	3.15	5.43	5.25	4.05	3.66
19	WAS	4.12	+0.30	2.65	3.79	4.28	3.76	5.48	4.02	4.88
20	HOU	4.09	−0.28	6.00	3.84	3.43	4.52	3.51	4.09	3.23
21	NE	4.02	+0.37	2.72	4.47	3.49	2.87	3.38	6.16	5.06
22	MIA	4.01	−0.25	4.26	3.40	5.12	5.28	3.69	4.77	1.53
23	ARI	3.97	+0.02	4.68	4.55	2.53	3.20	3.87	4.45	4.50
24	PIT	3.95	+0.17	5.30	3.44	2.09	2.56	4.19	4.71	5.35
25	CLE	3.87	−0.18	5.38	4.02	3.51	3.83	2.84	2.86	4.67
26	CHI	3.78	−0.12	4.22	2.93	4.97	3.68	3.47	4.84	2.33
27	TEN	3.70	−0.60	6.76	4.10	3.50	2.83	4.13	2.63	1.92
28	IND	3.64	−0.29	4.33	5.14	2.80	3.11	3.88	4.52	1.70
29	ATL	3.60	−0.15	4.28	3.48	4.08	3.19	3.74	3.47	2.96
30	CAR	3.58	+0.46	2.90	2.33	3.49	2.21	4.01	4.63	5.52
31	NYG	3.26	+0.41	2.30	2.52	3.24	2.88	2.51	3.97	5.39
32	NYJ	3.26	+0.16	3.19	3.29	2.39	1.82	5.06	3.01	4.03

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	4.36	5.04	5.86	6.72	4.31	5.70	9.09
DAL	3.90	6.13	5.03	5.83	3.59	4.94	4.64
GB	9.13	6.55	4.77	5.48	5.80	5.30	5.38
BAL	6.63	3.40	3.89	5.45	8.56	5.42	5.80
DEN	3.74	3.68	3.15	5.43	5.25	4.05	3.66
MIA	4.26	3.40	5.12	5.28	3.69	4.77	1.53
BUF	6.70	5.46	6.09	4.97	5.76	5.75	4.96
DET	4.61	3.84	4.92	4.91	7.07	6.01	6.28
TB	6.69	5.87	3.43	4.90	7.14	4.61	2.65
MIN	6.68	5.60	4.44	4.75	6.38	3.69	3.55
NO	5.35	5.71	4.67	4.61	3.78	3.21	4.37
HOU	6.00	3.84	3.43	4.52	3.51	4.09	3.23
LAR	3.38	6.72	3.01	4.42	3.91	7.69	4.09
KC	6.32	5.47	6.27	4.41	4.32	3.92	6.98
CIN	3.27	6.45	5.69	4.38	6.57	5.59	5.82
PHI	3.64	4.02	4.66	4.26	5.35	5.21	5.16
SEA	7.08	6.04	5.22	3.98	3.52	5.18	7.48
CLE	5.38	4.02	3.51	3.83	2.84	2.86	4.67
LAC	4.92	5.57	3.65	3.79	4.48	4.57	3.47
WAS	2.65	3.79	4.28	3.76	5.48	4.02	4.88
CHI	4.22	2.93	4.97	3.68	3.47	4.84	2.33
LV	5.07	3.65	4.75	3.58	2.98	3.87	6.56
JAX	4.01	1.97	4.15	3.53	3.44	5.13	6.94
ARI	4.68	4.55	2.53	3.20	3.87	4.45	4.50
ATL	4.28	3.48	4.08	3.19	3.74	3.47	2.96
IND	4.33	5.14	2.80	3.11	3.88	4.52	1.70
NYG	2.30	2.52	3.24	2.88	2.51	3.97	5.39
NE	2.72	4.47	3.49	2.87	3.38	6.16	5.06
TEN	6.76	4.10	3.50	2.83	4.13	2.63	1.92
PIT	5.30	3.44	2.09	2.56	4.19	4.71	5.35
CAR	2.90	2.33	3.49	2.21	4.01	4.63	5.52
NYJ	3.19	3.29	2.39	1.82	5.06	3.01	4.03

Pass td perc since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (8.56), 2019 Ravens (8.39), 2020 Packers (9.13), 2021 Rams (6.72), 2022 Chiefs (6.27), 2023 49ers (6.72).

Chiefs have led this stat 2 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Packers 2020 at 9.13; the worst Jets 2023 at 1.82.

The league average has fallen from 4.76 in 2018 to 4.10 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_pass_td_perc
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.