What Turnovers (Off − Def) is

Turnovers given away minus turnovers taken — turnover margin, from the team's point of view. Lower is better; it is one of the biggest single swings in a game's result, and one of the least repeatable.

Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Colts led at -1; the league average was -0.06.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

IND · -1

League average

-0.06

Best to worst

2.12

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	IND	-1	17
2	DAL	-0.88	17
3	GB	-0.88	17
4	ARI	-0.76	17
5	MIN	-0.65	17
6	TB	-0.59	17
7	BUF	-0.53	17
8	NE	-0.47	17
9	NO	-0.47	17
10	KC	-0.35	17
11	MIA	-0.29	17
12	SEA	-0.29	17
13	HOU	-0.24	17
14	DEN	-0.18	17
15	LAR	-0.18	17
16	PIT	-0.18	17
17	CIN	-0.12	17
18	LAC	0	17
19	PHI	0	17
20	SF	0.06	17
21	TEN	0.12	17
22	CLE	0.18	17
23	DET	0.24	17
24	ATL	0.35	17
25	WAS	0.35	17
26	NYG	0.47	17
27	LV	0.53	17
28	BAL	0.59	17
29	CHI	0.65	17
30	CAR	0.76	17
31	NYJ	0.76	17
32	JAX	1.12	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

IND · -1

League laggard

JAX · 1.12

League average

-0.06

Spread (max − min)

2.12

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	IND	-1	-0.94	100%
2	DAL	-0.88	-0.82	96.8%
3	GB	-0.88	-0.82	93.5%
4	ARI	-0.76	-0.71	90.3%
5	MIN	-0.65	-0.59	87.1%
6	TB	-0.59	-0.53	83.9%
7	BUF	-0.53	-0.47	80.6%
8	NE	-0.47	-0.41	77.4%
9	NO	-0.47	-0.41	74.2%
10	KC	-0.35	-0.29	71%
11	MIA	-0.29	-0.24	67.7%
12	SEA	-0.29	-0.24	64.5%
13	HOU	-0.24	-0.18	61.3%
14	DEN	-0.18	-0.12	58.1%
15	LAR	-0.18	-0.12	54.8%
16	PIT	-0.18	-0.12	51.6%
17	CIN	-0.12	-0.06	48.4%
18	LAC	0	0.06	45.2%
19	PHI	0	0.06	41.9%
20	SF	0.06	0.12	38.7%
21	TEN	0.12	0.18	35.5%
22	CLE	0.18	0.24	32.3%
23	DET	0.24	0.29	29%
24	ATL	0.35	0.41	25.8%
25	WAS	0.35	0.41	22.6%
26	NYG	0.47	0.53	19.4%
27	LV	0.53	0.59	16.1%
28	BAL	0.59	0.65	12.9%
29	CHI	0.65	0.71	9.7%
30	CAR	0.76	0.82	6.5%
31	NYJ	0.76	0.82	3.2%
32	JAX	1.12	1.18	0%

Does Turnovers (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 872–706–37 ATS (55.3%) across 2020–2025, #67 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2023 (128–130, 49.6%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	148–106–2	58.3%
2021	272	153–117–2	56.7%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	144–119–9	54.8%
2025	272	143–126–3	53.2%

Turnovers (Off − Def) in 2021 vs 2020

Colts lead at -1 — they ranked #3 last year. Jaguars are last at 1.12 — #28 last year.

The league average is -0.06, down 0.00 from -0.06 last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #24 → #2. Biggest faller: Titans, #2 → #21.

Spread between first and last: 2.12; 21 teams are within 0.53 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

BAL · +0.84

Biggest faller

DAL · −1.13

Most consistent

TB · −0.03

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ 0.00

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	BAL	0.59	-0.25	+0.84
2	CAR	0.76	-0.06	+0.83
3	TEN	0.12	-0.69	+0.81
4	NYJ	0.76	0	+0.76
5	JAX	1.12	0.44	+0.68
6	ATL	0.35	-0.19	+0.54
7	NYG	0.47	-0.06	+0.53
8	PIT	-0.18	-0.69	+0.51
9	CLE	0.18	-0.31	+0.49
10	CHI	0.65	0.19	+0.46
11	WAS	0.35	0.06	+0.29
12	MIA	-0.29	-0.56	+0.27
13	LAC	0	-0.25	+0.25
14	NO	-0.47	-0.63	+0.15
15	KC	-0.35	-0.44	+0.08
16	TB	-0.59	-0.56	−0.03
17	SEA	-0.29	-0.25	−0.04
18	LV	0.53	0.63	−0.10
19	BUF	-0.53	-0.38	−0.15
20	LAR	-0.18	0	−0.18
21	DET	0.24	0.44	−0.20
22	NE	-0.47	-0.19	−0.28
23	GB	-0.88	-0.56	−0.32
24	IND	-1	-0.63	−0.38
25	SF	0.06	0.44	−0.38
26	CIN	-0.12	0.38	−0.49
27	PHI	0	0.63	−0.63
28	MIN	-0.65	0	−0.65
29	HOU	-0.24	0.44	−0.67
30	ARI	-0.76	0	−0.76
31	DEN	-0.18	0.94	−1.11
32	DAL	-0.88	0.25	−1.13

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

PIT · -0.60

Multi-year laggard

LV · 0.27

Biggest improver

JAX · −0.25/yr

Biggest decliner

IND · +0.25/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	PIT	-0.60	−0.03	-0.69	-0.18	-0.41	-0.71	-1.06	-0.76	-0.40
2	GB	-0.46	+0.04	-0.56	-0.88	-0.24	-0.12	-0.76	-0.06	-0.60
3	HOU	-0.38	−0.19	0.44	-0.24	0	-0.59	-0.59	-1.06	-0.60
4	KC	-0.27	−0.07	-0.44	-0.35	-0.12	0.53	-0.35	0.06	-1.25
5	BUF	-0.27	+0.11	-0.38	-0.53	-0.06	-0.18	-1.41	-0.12	0.80
6	MIN	-0.26	−0.08	0	-0.65	-0.18	0.65	-0.76	0.35	-1.20
7	CIN	-0.21	−0.08	0.38	-0.12	-0.44	-0.59	-0.35	0.24	-0.60
8	BAL	-0.21	−0.08	-0.25	0.59	-0.24	-0.71	-0.35	0.12	-0.60
9	DET	-0.19	−0.17	0.44	0.24	-0.47	0	-0.53	-0.24	-0.80
10	TB	-0.19	+0.13	-0.56	-0.59	0	-0.47	0.29	-0.41	0.40
11	SEA	-0.19	+0.02	-0.25	-0.29	-0.24	-0.24	0.06	0.06	-0.40
12	SF	-0.13	−0.07	0.44	0.06	-0.76	-0.59	0.41	0.35	-0.80
13	LAC	-0.12	+0.08	-0.25	0	-0.35	-0.06	-0.76	-0.24	0.80
14	DAL	-0.12	+0.15	0.25	-0.88	-0.71	-0.65	0.24	0.53	0.40
15	ARI	-0.11	+0.01	0	-0.76	0.24	0	0.18	0	-0.40
16	CHI	-0.08	−0.10	0.19	0.65	0	-0.24	-0.59	-1.35	0.80
17	NYG	-0.07	−0.02	-0.06	0.47	-0.35	-0.82	0.41	0.06	-0.20
18	DEN	-0.05	−0.13	0.94	-0.18	-0.12	-0.35	-0.29	0.06	-0.40
19	LAR	-0.05	+0.02	0	-0.18	0.06	0.12	-0.35	-0.59	0.60
20	PHI	-0.04	−0.07	0.63	0	-0.53	0.59	-0.82	-0.53	0.40
21	NO	-0.01	+0.20	-0.63	-0.47	0.59	-0.76	0	0.18	1
22	IND	0.01	+0.25	-0.63	-1	0.71	-0.35	0.24	-0.06	1.20
23	JAX	0.05	−0.25	0.44	1.12	-0.29	0.06	0.82	-0.76	-1
24	CAR	0.08	−0.15	-0.06	0.76	0.06	0.53	0.29	0	-1
25	MIA	0.08	+0.17	-0.56	-0.29	0.41	-0.12	0.18	0.18	0.80
26	WAS	0.13	−0.11	0.06	0.35	0.29	0.71	-0.18	0.65	-1
27	NE	0.14	+0.19	-0.19	-0.47	-0.47	0.65	0.65	-0.18	1
28	TEN	0.20	+0.18	-0.69	0.12	0	0.18	0.88	0.29	0.60
29	NYJ	0.25	−0.06	0	0.76	0.41	0.12	0.06	1	-0.60
30	ATL	0.26	+0.08	-0.19	0.35	0.12	0.71	0.24	-0.41	1
31	CLE	0.27	+0.09	-0.31	0.18	0	0.47	1.18	0.35	0
32	LV	0.27	−0.17	0.63	0.53	0.41	0.06	0.94	0.35	-1

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
IND	-0.63	-1	0.71	-0.35	0.24	-0.06	1.20
DAL	0.25	-0.88	-0.71	-0.65	0.24	0.53	0.40
GB	-0.56	-0.88	-0.24	-0.12	-0.76	-0.06	-0.60
ARI	0	-0.76	0.24	0	0.18	0	-0.40
MIN	0	-0.65	-0.18	0.65	-0.76	0.35	-1.20
TB	-0.56	-0.59	0	-0.47	0.29	-0.41	0.40
BUF	-0.38	-0.53	-0.06	-0.18	-1.41	-0.12	0.80
NE	-0.19	-0.47	-0.47	0.65	0.65	-0.18	1
NO	-0.63	-0.47	0.59	-0.76	0	0.18	1
KC	-0.44	-0.35	-0.12	0.53	-0.35	0.06	-1.25
MIA	-0.56	-0.29	0.41	-0.12	0.18	0.18	0.80
SEA	-0.25	-0.29	-0.24	-0.24	0.06	0.06	-0.40
HOU	0.44	-0.24	0	-0.59	-0.59	-1.06	-0.60
DEN	0.94	-0.18	-0.12	-0.35	-0.29	0.06	-0.40
LAR	0	-0.18	0.06	0.12	-0.35	-0.59	0.60
PIT	-0.69	-0.18	-0.41	-0.71	-1.06	-0.76	-0.40
CIN	0.38	-0.12	-0.44	-0.59	-0.35	0.24	-0.60
LAC	-0.25	0	-0.35	-0.06	-0.76	-0.24	0.80
PHI	0.63	0	-0.53	0.59	-0.82	-0.53	0.40
SF	0.44	0.06	-0.76	-0.59	0.41	0.35	-0.80
TEN	-0.69	0.12	0	0.18	0.88	0.29	0.60
CLE	-0.31	0.18	0	0.47	1.18	0.35	0
DET	0.44	0.24	-0.47	0	-0.53	-0.24	-0.80
ATL	-0.19	0.35	0.12	0.71	0.24	-0.41	1
WAS	0.06	0.35	0.29	0.71	-0.18	0.65	-1
NYG	-0.06	0.47	-0.35	-0.82	0.41	0.06	-0.20
LV	0.63	0.53	0.41	0.06	0.94	0.35	-1
BAL	-0.25	0.59	-0.24	-0.71	-0.35	0.12	-0.60
CHI	0.19	0.65	0	-0.24	-0.59	-1.35	0.80
CAR	-0.06	0.76	0.06	0.53	0.29	0	-1
NYJ	0	0.76	0.41	0.12	0.06	1	-0.60
JAX	0.44	1.12	-0.29	0.06	0.82	-0.76	-1

Turnovers (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Seahawks (-0.94), 2019 Patriots (-1.44), 2020 Steelers (-0.69), 2021 Colts (-1).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at -1.44; the worst 49ers 2018 at 1.44.

The league average has risen from -0.06 in 2018 to -0.06 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_turnovers
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.