NET: Third down success (Off − Def)
What Third down success (Off − Def) is
Third downs converted minus third downs opponents converted against this defense.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Ravens led at 2; the league average was 0.
League snapshot — 2018
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | IND | 1.38 | 16 |
| 3 | SEA | 1.19 | 16 |
| 4 | MIN | 1.06 | 16 |
| 5 | PIT | 1 | 16 |
| 6 | JAX | 0.88 | 16 |
| 7 | LAR | 0.88 | 16 |
| 8 | PHI | 0.81 | 16 |
| 9 | TB | 0.81 | 16 |
| 10 | TEN | 0.50 | 16 |
| 11 | DET | 0.38 | 16 |
| 12 | NO | 0.38 | 16 |
| 13 | CHI | 0.31 | 16 |
| 14 | NE | 0.31 | 16 |
| 15 | CAR | 0.25 | 16 |
| 16 | DAL | 0.19 | 16 |
| 17 | KC | 0.06 | 16 |
| 18 | CLE | 0 | 16 |
| 19 | NYJ | -0.13 | 16 |
| 20 | ATL | -0.19 | 16 |
| 21 | BUF | -0.25 | 16 |
| 22 | GB | -0.38 | 16 |
| 23 | LAC | -0.63 | 16 |
| 24 | NYG | -0.63 | 16 |
| 25 | DEN | -0.81 | 16 |
| 26 | HOU | -0.81 | 16 |
| 27 | WAS | -0.81 | 16 |
| 28 | SF | -0.88 | 16 |
| 29 | ARI | -1.25 | 16 |
| 30 | LV | -1.25 | 16 |
| 31 | MIA | -1.88 | 16 |
| 32 | CIN | -2.50 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | IND | 1.38 | 1.38 | 96.8% |
| 3 | SEA | 1.19 | 1.19 | 93.5% |
| 4 | MIN | 1.06 | 1.06 | 90.3% |
| 5 | PIT | 1 | 1 | 87.1% |
| 6 | JAX | 0.88 | 0.88 | 83.9% |
| 7 | LAR | 0.88 | 0.88 | 80.6% |
| 8 | PHI | 0.81 | 0.81 | 77.4% |
| 9 | TB | 0.81 | 0.81 | 74.2% |
| 10 | TEN | 0.50 | 0.50 | 71% |
| 11 | DET | 0.38 | 0.38 | 67.7% |
| 12 | NO | 0.38 | 0.38 | 64.5% |
| 13 | CHI | 0.31 | 0.31 | 61.3% |
| 14 | NE | 0.31 | 0.31 | 58.1% |
| 15 | CAR | 0.25 | 0.25 | 54.8% |
| 16 | DAL | 0.19 | 0.19 | 51.6% |
| 17 | KC | 0.06 | 0.06 | 48.4% |
| 18 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 45.2% |
| 19 | NYJ | -0.13 | -0.13 | 41.9% |
| 20 | ATL | -0.19 | -0.19 | 38.7% |
| 21 | BUF | -0.25 | -0.25 | 35.5% |
| 22 | GB | -0.38 | -0.38 | 32.3% |
| 23 | LAC | -0.63 | -0.63 | 29% |
| 24 | NYG | -0.63 | -0.63 | 25.8% |
| 25 | DEN | -0.81 | -0.81 | 22.6% |
| 26 | HOU | -0.81 | -0.81 | 19.4% |
| 27 | WAS | -0.81 | -0.81 | 16.1% |
| 28 | SF | -0.88 | -0.88 | 12.9% |
| 29 | ARI | -1.25 | -1.25 | 9.7% |
| 30 | LV | -1.25 | -1.25 | 6.5% |
| 31 | MIA | -1.88 | -1.88 | 3.2% |
| 32 | CIN | -2.50 | -2.50 | 0% |
Does Third down success (Off − Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 872–706–37 ATS (55.3%) across 2020–2025, #66 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (150–104, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (139–131, 51.5%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 150–104–2 | 59.1% |
| 2021 | 272 | 139–131–2 | 51.5% |
| 2022 | 271 | 153–111–7 | 58.0% |
| 2023 | 272 | 139–119–14 | 53.9% |
| 2024 | 272 | 152–111–9 | 57.8% |
| 2025 | 272 | 139–130–3 | 51.7% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 0.90 | +0.21 | 0.56 | -0.47 | 2.24 | -0.18 | 0.53 | 2.65 | 1 |
| 2 | BUF | 0.89 | −0.32 | 1.06 | 2.24 | 1.19 | 1.65 | -0.06 | 0.53 | -0.40 |
| 3 | TB | 0.81 | +0.15 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 1.76 | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| 4 | KC | 0.59 | −0.25 | 1.13 | 1.59 | 0.35 | 0.76 | 1 | -0.94 | 0.25 |
| 5 | DAL | 0.54 | −0.06 | -0.75 | 1.35 | 1 | 2.06 | 0.53 | -0.41 | 0 |
| 6 | MIN | 0.43 | +0.24 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.53 | -0.47 | 0.24 | -0.88 | 3.20 |
| 7 | LAR | 0.41 | +0.02 | 1.50 | -0.18 | -0.06 | 0.53 | -0.59 | -0.35 | 2 |
| 8 | CHI | 0.39 | +0.57 | -0.56 | -0.59 | -0.47 | -0.06 | -0.29 | 1.12 | 3.60 |
| 9 | PIT | 0.34 | −0.18 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 1.12 | -0.41 | 1.18 | -0.82 | 0 |
| 10 | BAL | 0.31 | −0.49 | 2.25 | 0.65 | 1.06 | -0.29 | 0.12 | -0.24 | -1.40 |
| 11 | ARI | 0.19 | +0.03 | 0 | 1.29 | -0.29 | -0.53 | -0.41 | 0.29 | 1 |
| 12 | NO | 0.19 | +0.06 | 0.94 | -0.59 | -0.41 | 0.76 | -0.94 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| 13 | CIN | 0.18 | +0.27 | -0.88 | -0.47 | 0.75 | -0.35 | 0.76 | 0.47 | 1 |
| 14 | PHI | 0.15 | −0.15 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.94 | -0.12 | 1.59 | -0.88 | -0.80 |
| 15 | SF | 0.13 | +0.03 | 0.44 | -0.53 | 0.41 | -0.12 | -0.53 | 1.65 | -0.40 |
| 16 | NYG | 0.00 | +0.28 | -1.13 | -0.35 | 0.41 | -0.29 | -0.35 | 0.71 | 1 |
| 17 | HOU | -0.06 | +0.13 | -0.69 | 0.35 | -1.18 | 0.29 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0 |
| 18 | GB | -0.11 | −0.44 | 0.94 | 0.06 | 0.41 | 0.71 | -0.18 | 0.71 | -3.40 |
| 19 | NE | -0.20 | +0.05 | 0.06 | 0.76 | -1.24 | -1.12 | -0.94 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| 20 | DET | -0.21 | −0.03 | -0.81 | -1.06 | -0.41 | 1.12 | 2.24 | 0.24 | -2.80 |
| 21 | JAX | -0.22 | +0.20 | -0.19 | -1.12 | -0.29 | 0.18 | -1.35 | -0.18 | 1.40 |
| 22 | IND | -0.24 | +0.13 | -0.50 | 0.06 | -0.47 | -0.35 | -1.24 | -0.59 | 1.40 |
| 23 | MIA | -0.26 | −0.23 | 1.25 | 0.06 | -1.53 | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.94 | -0.80 |
| 24 | CLE | -0.28 | −0.24 | 0 | -0.18 | 0.12 | 0.82 | -0.59 | -0.12 | -2 |
| 25 | DEN | -0.29 | −0.02 | -0.44 | -1 | -0.41 | 0.76 | 0.12 | 1.12 | -2.20 |
| 26 | WAS | -0.38 | −0.18 | 0.38 | -1.35 | 0.82 | -0.94 | 1.12 | -1.06 | -1.60 |
| 27 | TEN | -0.41 | −0.08 | -1.69 | 1.47 | 0.24 | -1 | -0.53 | -0.53 | -0.80 |
| 28 | ATL | -0.47 | −0.16 | 1.06 | -1.35 | -1.12 | 0.76 | -0.82 | -1 | -0.80 |
| 29 | NYJ | -0.57 | +0.33 | -1.31 | -1.24 | -0.59 | -1.65 | 0.06 | -0.06 | 0.80 |
| 30 | LV | -0.74 | −0.03 | -0.56 | -0.88 | -0.24 | -1 | -0.59 | -1.94 | 0 |
| 31 | SEA | -0.92 | +0.21 | -1.75 | -0.88 | -1.18 | -1.82 | -0.35 | 0.53 | -1 |
| 32 | CAR | -1.12 | −0.09 | -1.38 | 0.06 | -1.76 | -0.12 | -2.12 | -1.53 | -1 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | -0.56 | -0.59 | -0.47 | -0.06 | -0.29 | 1.12 | 3.60 |
| MIN | 0 | 0.41 | 0.53 | -0.47 | 0.24 | -0.88 | 3.20 |
| LAR | 1.50 | -0.18 | -0.06 | 0.53 | -0.59 | -0.35 | 2 |
| IND | -0.50 | 0.06 | -0.47 | -0.35 | -1.24 | -0.59 | 1.40 |
| JAX | -0.19 | -1.12 | -0.29 | 0.18 | -1.35 | -0.18 | 1.40 |
| TB | 0.25 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 1.76 | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| ARI | 0 | 1.29 | -0.29 | -0.53 | -0.41 | 0.29 | 1 |
| CIN | -0.88 | -0.47 | 0.75 | -0.35 | 0.76 | 0.47 | 1 |
| LAC | 0.56 | -0.47 | 2.24 | -0.18 | 0.53 | 2.65 | 1 |
| NYG | -1.13 | -0.35 | 0.41 | -0.29 | -0.35 | 0.71 | 1 |
| NO | 0.94 | -0.59 | -0.41 | 0.76 | -0.94 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| NYJ | -1.31 | -1.24 | -0.59 | -1.65 | 0.06 | -0.06 | 0.80 |
| NE | 0.06 | 0.76 | -1.24 | -1.12 | -0.94 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| KC | 1.13 | 1.59 | 0.35 | 0.76 | 1 | -0.94 | 0.25 |
| DAL | -0.75 | 1.35 | 1 | 2.06 | 0.53 | -0.41 | 0 |
| HOU | -0.69 | 0.35 | -1.18 | 0.29 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0 |
| LV | -0.56 | -0.88 | -0.24 | -1 | -0.59 | -1.94 | 0 |
| PIT | 0.81 | 0.53 | 1.12 | -0.41 | 1.18 | -0.82 | 0 |
| BUF | 1.06 | 2.24 | 1.19 | 1.65 | -0.06 | 0.53 | -0.40 |
| SF | 0.44 | -0.53 | 0.41 | -0.12 | -0.53 | 1.65 | -0.40 |
| ATL | 1.06 | -1.35 | -1.12 | 0.76 | -0.82 | -1 | -0.80 |
| MIA | 1.25 | 0.06 | -1.53 | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.94 | -0.80 |
| PHI | 0 | 0.35 | 0.94 | -0.12 | 1.59 | -0.88 | -0.80 |
| TEN | -1.69 | 1.47 | 0.24 | -1 | -0.53 | -0.53 | -0.80 |
| CAR | -1.38 | 0.06 | -1.76 | -0.12 | -2.12 | -1.53 | -1 |
| SEA | -1.75 | -0.88 | -1.18 | -1.82 | -0.35 | 0.53 | -1 |
| BAL | 2.25 | 0.65 | 1.06 | -0.29 | 0.12 | -0.24 | -1.40 |
| WAS | 0.38 | -1.35 | 0.82 | -0.94 | 1.12 | -1.06 | -1.60 |
| CLE | 0 | -0.18 | 0.12 | 0.82 | -0.59 | -0.12 | -2 |
| DEN | -0.44 | -1 | -0.41 | 0.76 | 0.12 | 1.12 | -2.20 |
| DET | -0.81 | -1.06 | -0.41 | 1.12 | 2.24 | 0.24 | -2.80 |
| GB | 0.94 | 0.06 | 0.41 | 0.71 | -0.18 | 0.71 | -3.40 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_third_down_success
- Side
- net
- Family
- NET (Off − Def)
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.