What Points avg (Off − Def) is

Points per drive minus points allowed per opponent drive. Point differential with pace removed — each side measured per possession.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 1.03; the league average was 0.03.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 1.03

League average

0.03

Best to worst

2.19

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	1.03	17
2	DAL	1.02	17
3	NE	1.00	17
4	TB	0.80	17
5	KC	0.72	17
6	IND	0.53	17
7	LAR	0.51	17
8	ARI	0.48	17
9	CIN	0.48	17
10	GB	0.48	17
11	PHI	0.43	17
12	TEN	0.40	17
13	SF	0.32	17
14	LAC	0.18	17
15	SEA	0.18	17
16	NO	0.15	17
17	DEN	0.14	17
18	MIN	-0.01	17
19	BAL	-0.01	17
20	CLE	-0.09	17
21	MIA	-0.11	17
22	PIT	-0.31	17
23	LV	-0.38	17
24	CAR	-0.46	17
25	CHI	-0.49	17
26	WAS	-0.52	17
27	DET	-0.71	17
28	ATL	-0.79	17
29	NYG	-0.84	17
30	HOU	-0.91	17
31	NYJ	-0.99	17
32	JAX	-1.16	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 1.03

League laggard

JAX · -1.16

League average

0.03

Spread (max − min)

2.19

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	1.03	0.99	100%
2	DAL	1.02	0.98	96.8%
3	NE	1.00	0.97	93.5%
4	TB	0.80	0.77	90.3%
5	KC	0.72	0.69	87.1%
6	IND	0.53	0.50	83.9%
7	LAR	0.51	0.48	80.6%
8	ARI	0.48	0.45	77.4%
9	CIN	0.48	0.45	74.2%
10	GB	0.48	0.44	71%
11	PHI	0.43	0.40	67.7%
12	TEN	0.40	0.37	64.5%
13	SF	0.32	0.29	61.3%
14	LAC	0.18	0.15	58.1%
15	SEA	0.18	0.15	54.8%
16	NO	0.15	0.12	51.6%
17	DEN	0.14	0.11	48.4%
18	MIN	-0.01	-0.04	45.2%
19	BAL	-0.01	-0.04	41.9%
20	CLE	-0.09	-0.12	38.7%
21	MIA	-0.11	-0.14	35.5%
22	PIT	-0.31	-0.35	32.3%
23	LV	-0.38	-0.41	29%
24	CAR	-0.46	-0.50	25.8%
25	CHI	-0.49	-0.52	22.6%
26	WAS	-0.52	-0.56	19.4%
27	DET	-0.71	-0.74	16.1%
28	ATL	-0.79	-0.82	12.9%
29	NYG	-0.84	-0.88	9.7%
30	HOU	-0.91	-0.95	6.5%
31	NYJ	-0.99	-1.02	3.2%
32	JAX	-1.16	-1.20	0%

Does Points avg (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 970–608–37 ATS (61.5%) across 2020–2025, #2 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (166–88, 65.4%); its worst 2021 (158–112, 58.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	166–88–2	65.4%
2021	272	158–112–2	58.5%
2022	271	159–105–7	60.2%
2023	272	152–106–14	58.9%
2024	272	168–95–9	63.9%
2025	272	167–102–3	62.1%

Points avg (Off − Def) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 1.03 — they ranked #6 last year. Jaguars are last at -1.16 — #31 last year.

The league average is 0.03, up 0.01 from 0.02 last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #25 → #2. Biggest faller: Ravens, #1 → #19.

Spread between first and last: 2.19; 21 teams are within 0.61 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DAL · +1.39

Biggest faller

BAL · −0.93

Most consistent

IND · +0.01

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 0.01

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DAL	1.02	-0.37	+1.39
2	NE	1.00	-0.14	+1.15
3	CIN	0.48	-0.60	+1.08
4	PHI	0.43	-0.36	+0.80
5	DEN	0.14	-0.63	+0.77
6	LAC	0.18	-0.21	+0.39
7	BUF	1.03	0.67	+0.35
8	SF	0.32	0.01	+0.31
9	MIN	-0.01	-0.28	+0.28
10	ARI	0.48	0.23	+0.25
11	NYJ	-0.99	-1.17	+0.18
12	DET	-0.71	-0.79	+0.08
13	TB	0.80	0.74	+0.06
14	LAR	0.51	0.46	+0.06
15	TEN	0.40	0.36	+0.05
16	IND	0.53	0.53	+0.01
17	CLE	-0.09	-0.05	−0.04
18	KC	0.72	0.76	−0.04
19	LV	-0.38	-0.29	−0.09
20	CAR	-0.46	-0.30	−0.16
21	JAX	-1.16	-0.92	−0.25
22	SEA	0.18	0.45	−0.27
23	GB	0.48	0.82	−0.35
24	NYG	-0.84	-0.49	−0.35
25	MIA	-0.11	0.39	−0.50
26	HOU	-0.91	-0.39	−0.53
27	CHI	-0.49	0.06	−0.54
28	WAS	-0.52	0.11	−0.63
29	NO	0.15	0.82	−0.66
30	ATL	-0.79	-0.08	−0.71
31	PIT	-0.31	0.54	−0.85
32	BAL	-0.01	0.93	−0.93

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 0.79

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -0.58

Biggest improver

JAX · +0.31/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −0.25/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	0.79	−0.05	0.67	1.03	0.98	0.80	0.92	0.69	0.43
2	KC	0.59	−0.04	0.76	0.72	0.76	0.47	0.34	0.20	0.89
3	SF	0.53	+0.09	0.01	0.32	0.94	1.04	-0.21	0.37	1.23
4	BAL	0.52	−0.01	0.93	-0.01	0.15	1.03	0.90	0.20	0.44
5	GB	0.31	−0.10	0.82	0.48	-0.02	0.20	0.68	0.13	-0.11
6	SEA	0.31	+0.06	0.45	0.18	0.07	-0.14	0.12	1.09	0.41
7	DAL	0.30	−0.06	-0.37	1.02	0.69	1.21	-0.53	-0.21	0.28
8	TB	0.26	−0.14	0.74	0.80	-0.20	0.14	0.66	-0.16	-0.18
9	PHI	0.24	+0.01	-0.36	0.43	0.68	0.00	0.85	0.34	-0.26
10	LAR	0.22	−0.01	0.46	0.51	-0.44	0.21	-0.09	0.96	-0.09
11	MIN	0.15	+0.14	-0.28	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	0.50	0.09	0.80
12	DET	0.15	+0.24	-0.79	-0.71	0.19	0.36	1.23	0.39	0.35
13	NE	0.14	+0.02	-0.14	1.00	0.13	-0.59	-0.73	0.96	0.33
14	CIN	0.11	+0.05	-0.60	0.48	0.57	-0.08	0.27	-0.36	0.52
15	IND	0.06	−0.07	0.53	0.53	-0.64	0.00	-0.18	0.38	-0.21
16	NO	0.04	−0.18	0.82	0.15	-0.04	0.40	-0.28	-0.34	-0.42
17	PIT	0.01	−0.02	0.54	-0.31	-0.23	-0.14	0.11	0.08	0.00
18	DEN	-0.01	+0.12	-0.63	0.14	-0.34	-0.31	0.67	0.50	-0.12
19	LAC	-0.02	−0.03	-0.21	0.18	0.05	-0.26	0.54	0.21	-0.68
20	JAX	-0.07	+0.31	-0.92	-1.16	0.32	0.05	-0.60	0.74	1.05
21	MIA	-0.11	−0.21	0.39	-0.11	0.08	0.64	-0.08	-0.42	-1.26
22	CHI	-0.14	+0.09	0.06	-0.49	-0.74	-0.04	-0.28	0.14	0.36
23	HOU	-0.18	+0.16	-0.39	-0.91	-0.61	0.16	0.01	0.53	-0.07
24	CLE	-0.22	−0.09	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	0.19	-0.75	-0.44	-0.41
25	ATL	-0.24	+0.04	-0.08	-0.79	-0.11	-0.26	-0.11	-0.28	-0.05
26	ARI	-0.29	−0.19	0.23	0.48	-0.50	-0.70	0.15	-0.61	-1.07
27	WAS	-0.29	−0.05	0.11	-0.52	-0.09	-1.00	0.53	-0.51	-0.58
28	LV	-0.33	−0.04	-0.29	-0.38	0.01	0.08	-0.67	-1.06	0.01
29	TEN	-0.37	−0.25	0.36	0.40	-0.31	-0.35	-0.78	-0.98	-0.91
30	CAR	-0.38	+0.05	-0.30	-0.46	-0.09	-0.90	-1.00	-0.37	0.45
31	NYG	-0.40	+0.08	-0.49	-0.84	0.02	-0.66	-0.74	-0.17	0.09
32	NYJ	-0.58	+0.11	-1.17	-0.99	-0.09	-0.37	-0.34	-1.06	-0.06

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	0.67	1.03	0.98	0.80	0.92	0.69	0.43
DAL	-0.37	1.02	0.69	1.21	-0.53	-0.21	0.28
NE	-0.14	1.00	0.13	-0.59	-0.73	0.96	0.33
TB	0.74	0.80	-0.20	0.14	0.66	-0.16	-0.18
KC	0.76	0.72	0.76	0.47	0.34	0.20	0.89
IND	0.53	0.53	-0.64	0.00	-0.18	0.38	-0.21
LAR	0.46	0.51	-0.44	0.21	-0.09	0.96	-0.09
ARI	0.23	0.48	-0.50	-0.70	0.15	-0.61	-1.07
CIN	-0.60	0.48	0.57	-0.08	0.27	-0.36	0.52
GB	0.82	0.48	-0.02	0.20	0.68	0.13	-0.11
PHI	-0.36	0.43	0.68	0.00	0.85	0.34	-0.26
TEN	0.36	0.40	-0.31	-0.35	-0.78	-0.98	-0.91
SF	0.01	0.32	0.94	1.04	-0.21	0.37	1.23
LAC	-0.21	0.18	0.05	-0.26	0.54	0.21	-0.68
SEA	0.45	0.18	0.07	-0.14	0.12	1.09	0.41
NO	0.82	0.15	-0.04	0.40	-0.28	-0.34	-0.42
DEN	-0.63	0.14	-0.34	-0.31	0.67	0.50	-0.12
MIN	-0.28	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	0.50	0.09	0.80
BAL	0.93	-0.01	0.15	1.03	0.90	0.20	0.44
CLE	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	0.19	-0.75	-0.44	-0.41
MIA	0.39	-0.11	0.08	0.64	-0.08	-0.42	-1.26
PIT	0.54	-0.31	-0.23	-0.14	0.11	0.08	0.00
LV	-0.29	-0.38	0.01	0.08	-0.67	-1.06	0.01
CAR	-0.30	-0.46	-0.09	-0.90	-1.00	-0.37	0.45
CHI	0.06	-0.49	-0.74	-0.04	-0.28	0.14	0.36
WAS	0.11	-0.52	-0.09	-1.00	0.53	-0.51	-0.58
DET	-0.79	-0.71	0.19	0.36	1.23	0.39	0.35
ATL	-0.08	-0.79	-0.11	-0.26	-0.11	-0.28	-0.05
NYG	-0.49	-0.84	0.02	-0.66	-0.74	-0.17	0.09
HOU	-0.39	-0.91	-0.61	0.16	0.01	0.53	-0.07
NYJ	-1.17	-0.99	-0.09	-0.37	-0.34	-1.06	-0.06
JAX	-0.92	-1.16	0.32	0.05	-0.60	0.74	1.05

Points avg (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (0.93), 2019 Ravens (1.49), 2020 Ravens (0.93), 2021 Bills (1.03).

Ravens have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 1.49; the worst Jets 2020 at -1.17.

The league average has fallen from 0.04 in 2018 to 0.03 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_points_avg
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.