What Points avg (Off − Def) is

Points per drive minus points allowed per opponent drive. Point differential with pace removed — each side measured per possession.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Chiefs led at 0.93; the league average was 0.04.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

KC · 0.93

League average

0.04

Best to worst

1.96

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	0.93	16
2	NO	0.87	16
3	CHI	0.80	16
4	LAR	0.72	16
5	LAC	0.63	16
6	NE	0.62	16
7	BAL	0.62	16
8	SEA	0.46	16
9	HOU	0.43	16
10	PIT	0.42	16
11	IND	0.41	16
12	TEN	0.14	16
13	MIN	0.12	16
14	PHI	0.12	16
15	DAL	0.09	16
16	ATL	0.06	16
17	CAR	-0.06	16
18	DEN	-0.07	16
19	GB	-0.07	16
20	CLE	-0.16	16
21	DET	-0.18	16
22	NYG	-0.19	16
23	JAX	-0.32	16
24	TB	-0.34	16
25	CIN	-0.38	16
26	WAS	-0.44	16
27	NYJ	-0.47	16
28	SF	-0.47	16
29	BUF	-0.52	16
30	MIA	-0.59	16
31	LV	-0.97	16
32	ARI	-1.03	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 0.93

League laggard

ARI · -1.03

League average

0.04

Spread (max − min)

1.96

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	0.93	0.89	100%
2	NO	0.87	0.83	96.8%
3	CHI	0.80	0.77	93.5%
4	LAR	0.72	0.68	90.3%
5	LAC	0.63	0.59	87.1%
6	NE	0.62	0.58	83.9%
7	BAL	0.62	0.58	80.6%
8	SEA	0.46	0.42	77.4%
9	HOU	0.43	0.40	74.2%
10	PIT	0.42	0.39	71%
11	IND	0.41	0.37	67.7%
12	TEN	0.14	0.10	64.5%
13	MIN	0.12	0.08	61.3%
14	PHI	0.12	0.08	58.1%
15	DAL	0.09	0.05	54.8%
16	ATL	0.06	0.02	51.6%
17	CAR	-0.06	-0.10	48.4%
18	DEN	-0.07	-0.10	45.2%
19	GB	-0.07	-0.11	41.9%
20	CLE	-0.16	-0.20	38.7%
21	DET	-0.18	-0.22	35.5%
22	NYG	-0.19	-0.23	32.3%
23	JAX	-0.32	-0.35	29%
24	TB	-0.34	-0.38	25.8%
25	CIN	-0.38	-0.41	22.6%
26	WAS	-0.44	-0.48	19.4%
27	NYJ	-0.47	-0.50	16.1%
28	SF	-0.47	-0.51	12.9%
29	BUF	-0.52	-0.56	9.7%
30	MIA	-0.59	-0.63	6.5%
31	LV	-0.97	-1.00	3.2%
32	ARI	-1.03	-1.06	0%

Does Points avg (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 970–608–37 ATS (61.5%) across 2020–2025, #2 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (166–88, 65.4%); its worst 2021 (158–112, 58.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	166–88–2	65.4%
2021	272	158–112–2	58.5%
2022	271	159–105–7	60.2%
2023	272	152–106–14	58.9%
2024	272	168–95–9	63.9%
2025	272	167–102–3	62.1%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 0.79

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -0.58

Biggest improver

JAX · +0.31/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −0.25/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	0.79	−0.05	0.67	1.03	0.98	0.80	0.92	0.69	0.43
2	KC	0.59	−0.04	0.76	0.72	0.76	0.47	0.34	0.20	0.89
3	SF	0.53	+0.09	0.01	0.32	0.94	1.04	-0.21	0.37	1.23
4	BAL	0.52	−0.01	0.93	-0.01	0.15	1.03	0.90	0.20	0.44
5	GB	0.31	−0.10	0.82	0.48	-0.02	0.20	0.68	0.13	-0.11
6	SEA	0.31	+0.06	0.45	0.18	0.07	-0.14	0.12	1.09	0.41
7	DAL	0.30	−0.06	-0.37	1.02	0.69	1.21	-0.53	-0.21	0.28
8	TB	0.26	−0.14	0.74	0.80	-0.20	0.14	0.66	-0.16	-0.18
9	PHI	0.24	+0.01	-0.36	0.43	0.68	0.00	0.85	0.34	-0.26
10	LAR	0.22	−0.01	0.46	0.51	-0.44	0.21	-0.09	0.96	-0.09
11	MIN	0.15	+0.14	-0.28	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	0.50	0.09	0.80
12	DET	0.15	+0.24	-0.79	-0.71	0.19	0.36	1.23	0.39	0.35
13	NE	0.14	+0.02	-0.14	1.00	0.13	-0.59	-0.73	0.96	0.33
14	CIN	0.11	+0.05	-0.60	0.48	0.57	-0.08	0.27	-0.36	0.52
15	IND	0.06	−0.07	0.53	0.53	-0.64	0.00	-0.18	0.38	-0.21
16	NO	0.04	−0.18	0.82	0.15	-0.04	0.40	-0.28	-0.34	-0.42
17	PIT	0.01	−0.02	0.54	-0.31	-0.23	-0.14	0.11	0.08	0.00
18	DEN	-0.01	+0.12	-0.63	0.14	-0.34	-0.31	0.67	0.50	-0.12
19	LAC	-0.02	−0.03	-0.21	0.18	0.05	-0.26	0.54	0.21	-0.68
20	JAX	-0.07	+0.31	-0.92	-1.16	0.32	0.05	-0.60	0.74	1.05
21	MIA	-0.11	−0.21	0.39	-0.11	0.08	0.64	-0.08	-0.42	-1.26
22	CHI	-0.14	+0.09	0.06	-0.49	-0.74	-0.04	-0.28	0.14	0.36
23	HOU	-0.18	+0.16	-0.39	-0.91	-0.61	0.16	0.01	0.53	-0.07
24	CLE	-0.22	−0.09	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	0.19	-0.75	-0.44	-0.41
25	ATL	-0.24	+0.04	-0.08	-0.79	-0.11	-0.26	-0.11	-0.28	-0.05
26	ARI	-0.29	−0.19	0.23	0.48	-0.50	-0.70	0.15	-0.61	-1.07
27	WAS	-0.29	−0.05	0.11	-0.52	-0.09	-1.00	0.53	-0.51	-0.58
28	LV	-0.33	−0.04	-0.29	-0.38	0.01	0.08	-0.67	-1.06	0.01
29	TEN	-0.37	−0.25	0.36	0.40	-0.31	-0.35	-0.78	-0.98	-0.91
30	CAR	-0.38	+0.05	-0.30	-0.46	-0.09	-0.90	-1.00	-0.37	0.45
31	NYG	-0.40	+0.08	-0.49	-0.84	0.02	-0.66	-0.74	-0.17	0.09
32	NYJ	-0.58	+0.11	-1.17	-0.99	-0.09	-0.37	-0.34	-1.06	-0.06

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	0.01	0.32	0.94	1.04	-0.21	0.37	1.23
JAX	-0.92	-1.16	0.32	0.05	-0.60	0.74	1.05
KC	0.76	0.72	0.76	0.47	0.34	0.20	0.89
MIN	-0.28	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	0.50	0.09	0.80
CIN	-0.60	0.48	0.57	-0.08	0.27	-0.36	0.52
CAR	-0.30	-0.46	-0.09	-0.90	-1.00	-0.37	0.45
BAL	0.93	-0.01	0.15	1.03	0.90	0.20	0.44
BUF	0.67	1.03	0.98	0.80	0.92	0.69	0.43
SEA	0.45	0.18	0.07	-0.14	0.12	1.09	0.41
CHI	0.06	-0.49	-0.74	-0.04	-0.28	0.14	0.36
DET	-0.79	-0.71	0.19	0.36	1.23	0.39	0.35
NE	-0.14	1.00	0.13	-0.59	-0.73	0.96	0.33
DAL	-0.37	1.02	0.69	1.21	-0.53	-0.21	0.28
NYG	-0.49	-0.84	0.02	-0.66	-0.74	-0.17	0.09
LV	-0.29	-0.38	0.01	0.08	-0.67	-1.06	0.01
PIT	0.54	-0.31	-0.23	-0.14	0.11	0.08	0.00
ATL	-0.08	-0.79	-0.11	-0.26	-0.11	-0.28	-0.05
NYJ	-1.17	-0.99	-0.09	-0.37	-0.34	-1.06	-0.06
HOU	-0.39	-0.91	-0.61	0.16	0.01	0.53	-0.07
LAR	0.46	0.51	-0.44	0.21	-0.09	0.96	-0.09
GB	0.82	0.48	-0.02	0.20	0.68	0.13	-0.11
DEN	-0.63	0.14	-0.34	-0.31	0.67	0.50	-0.12
TB	0.74	0.80	-0.20	0.14	0.66	-0.16	-0.18
IND	0.53	0.53	-0.64	0.00	-0.18	0.38	-0.21
PHI	-0.36	0.43	0.68	0.00	0.85	0.34	-0.26
CLE	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	0.19	-0.75	-0.44	-0.41
NO	0.82	0.15	-0.04	0.40	-0.28	-0.34	-0.42
WAS	0.11	-0.52	-0.09	-1.00	0.53	-0.51	-0.58
LAC	-0.21	0.18	0.05	-0.26	0.54	0.21	-0.68
TEN	0.36	0.40	-0.31	-0.35	-0.78	-0.98	-0.91
ARI	0.23	0.48	-0.50	-0.70	0.15	-0.61	-1.07
MIA	0.39	-0.11	0.08	0.64	-0.08	-0.42	-1.26

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_points_avg
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.