NET EXP (Off + Def)
Denver Broncos — NET EXP (Off + Def), 2026
- Value-3.66
- Rank#22 of 32
- League average0.10
- Rank in 2025#5 of 32
What NET EXP (Off + Def) is
Net expected points: the offense's total expected points contributed plus the defense's — both sides of the ball, each play valued by what it did to the chance of scoring, combined. A whole-team quality number that ignores the scoreboard's luck.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
Through Week 6 of 2026, the 49ers lead at 15.42; the league average is 0.10.
League snapshot — 2026
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 15.42 | 5 |
| 2 | KC | 12.03 | 4 |
| 3 | JAX | 9.46 | 5 |
| 4 | LAR | 7.76 | 5 |
| 5 | BAL | 6.77 | 5 |
| 6 | CIN | 6.03 | 5 |
| 7 | MIN | 5.45 | 5 |
| 8 | CHI | 4.76 | 5 |
| 9 | CAR | 4.73 | 4 |
| 10 | NE | 4.15 | 5 |
| 11 | BUF | 3.17 | 5 |
| 12 | SEA | 3.06 | 5 |
| 13 | HOU | 2.37 | 5 |
| 14 | ATL | 1.13 | 5 |
| 15 | PIT | 0.33 | 5 |
| 16 | DET | -0.73 | 5 |
| 17 | GB | -1.15 | 5 |
| 18 | DAL | -1.16 | 5 |
| 19 | NYJ | -1.37 | 5 |
| 20 | LV | -1.40 | 5 |
| 21 | TB | -1.58 | 5 |
| 22 | DEN | -3.66 | 5 |
| 23 | WAS | -4.24 | 5 |
| 24 | CLE | -4.29 | 5 |
| 25 | NYG | -4.37 | 5 |
| 26 | LAC | -5.05 | 5 |
| 27 | NO | -6.15 | 5 |
| 28 | IND | -7.88 | 5 |
| 29 | TEN | -8.83 | 5 |
| 30 | ARI | -9.62 | 5 |
| 31 | PHI | -10.05 | 5 |
| 32 | MIA | -11.74 | 5 |
At a glance — 2026
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2026
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 15.42 | 15.32 | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 12.03 | 11.92 | 96.8% |
| 3 | JAX | 9.46 | 9.35 | 93.5% |
| 4 | LAR | 7.76 | 7.65 | 90.3% |
| 5 | BAL | 6.77 | 6.67 | 87.1% |
| 6 | CIN | 6.03 | 5.93 | 83.9% |
| 7 | MIN | 5.45 | 5.34 | 80.6% |
| 8 | CHI | 4.76 | 4.66 | 77.4% |
| 9 | CAR | 4.73 | 4.63 | 74.2% |
| 10 | NE | 4.15 | 4.05 | 71% |
| 11 | BUF | 3.17 | 3.07 | 67.7% |
| 12 | SEA | 3.06 | 2.95 | 64.5% |
| 13 | HOU | 2.37 | 2.26 | 61.3% |
| 14 | ATL | 1.13 | 1.03 | 58.1% |
| 15 | PIT | 0.33 | 0.23 | 54.8% |
| 16 | DET | -0.73 | -0.83 | 51.6% |
| 17 | GB | -1.15 | -1.26 | 48.4% |
| 18 | DAL | -1.16 | -1.26 | 45.2% |
| 19 | NYJ | -1.37 | -1.47 | 41.9% |
| 20 | LV | -1.40 | -1.50 | 38.7% |
| 21 | TB | -1.58 | -1.68 | 35.5% |
| 22 | DEN | -3.66 | -3.77 | 32.3% |
| 23 | WAS | -4.24 | -4.34 | 29% |
| 24 | CLE | -4.29 | -4.39 | 25.8% |
| 25 | NYG | -4.37 | -4.48 | 22.6% |
| 26 | LAC | -5.05 | -5.15 | 19.4% |
| 27 | NO | -6.15 | -6.25 | 16.1% |
| 28 | IND | -7.88 | -7.99 | 12.9% |
| 29 | TEN | -8.83 | -8.93 | 9.7% |
| 30 | ARI | -9.62 | -9.72 | 6.5% |
| 31 | PHI | -10.05 | -10.15 | 3.2% |
| 32 | MIA | -11.74 | -11.85 | 0% |
Does NET EXP (Off + Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 956–622–37 ATS (60.6%) across 2020–2025, #7 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (164–90, 64.6%); its worst 2021 (154–116, 57.0%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 164–90–2 | 64.6% |
| 2021 | 272 | 154–116–2 | 57.0% |
| 2022 | 271 | 166–98–7 | 62.9% |
| 2023 | 272 | 150–108–14 | 58.1% |
| 2024 | 272 | 165–98–9 | 62.7% |
| 2025 | 272 | 157–112–3 | 58.4% |
NET EXP (Off + Def) in 2026 vs 2025
49ers lead at 15.42 — they ranked #16 last year. Dolphins are last at -11.74 — #27 last year.
The league average is 0.10, up 0.10 from 0.00 last year.
Biggest riser: Bengals, #28 → #6. Biggest faller: Eagles, #11 → #31.
Spread between first and last: 27.16; 22 teams are within 6.48 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2026 vs 2025
| Rank | Team | 2026 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | -1.37 | -16.56 | +15.19 |
| 2 | SF | 15.42 | 0.92 | +14.50 |
| 3 | CIN | 6.03 | -7.21 | +13.24 |
| 4 | LV | -1.40 | -11.79 | +10.39 |
| 5 | CAR | 4.73 | -5.34 | +10.07 |
| 6 | KC | 12.03 | 3.90 | +8.13 |
| 7 | MIN | 5.45 | -0.05 | +5.50 |
| 8 | TEN | -8.83 | -14.08 | +5.25 |
| 9 | BAL | 6.77 | 1.62 | +5.15 |
| 10 | WAS | -4.24 | -8.07 | +3.84 |
| 11 | CHI | 4.76 | 1.16 | +3.60 |
| 12 | ATL | 1.13 | -1.56 | +2.69 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.46 | 6.88 | +2.58 |
| 14 | CLE | -4.29 | -4.98 | +0.69 |
| 15 | DAL | -1.16 | -1.75 | +0.59 |
| 16 | PIT | 0.33 | -0.25 | +0.58 |
| 17 | NYG | -4.37 | -3.95 | −0.42 |
| 18 | TB | -1.58 | -0.65 | −0.93 |
| 19 | ARI | -9.62 | -5.87 | −3.75 |
| 20 | HOU | 2.37 | 6.35 | −3.98 |
| 21 | NO | -6.15 | -0.89 | −5.26 |
| 22 | GB | -1.15 | 4.15 | −5.30 |
| 23 | LAR | 7.76 | 13.30 | −5.54 |
| 24 | MIA | -11.74 | -6.14 | −5.61 |
| 25 | BUF | 3.17 | 9.01 | −5.83 |
| 26 | DET | -0.73 | 5.61 | −6.34 |
| 27 | SEA | 3.06 | 9.51 | −6.45 |
| 28 | LAC | -5.05 | 2.08 | −7.13 |
| 29 | NE | 4.15 | 11.68 | −7.53 |
| 30 | IND | -7.88 | 2.37 | −10.25 |
| 31 | DEN | -3.66 | 7.15 | −10.81 |
| 32 | PHI | -10.05 | 3.47 | −13.52 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 9.23 | −0.83 | 7.79 | 13.49 | 10.46 | 10.72 | 10.00 | 9.01 | 3.17 |
| 2 | SF | 7.47 | +0.71 | 2.43 | 4.99 | 12.41 | 14.56 | 1.59 | 0.92 | 15.42 |
| 3 | KC | 7.20 | −0.04 | 8.14 | 5.98 | 11.68 | 5.65 | 2.99 | 3.90 | 12.03 |
| 4 | BAL | 6.03 | +0.63 | 7.99 | -2.81 | 1.07 | 14.01 | 13.54 | 1.62 | 6.77 |
| 5 | LAR | 4.97 | +0.49 | 9.35 | 6.20 | -4.89 | 3.77 | -0.69 | 13.30 | 7.76 |
| 6 | GB | 4.79 | −1.13 | 10.46 | 6.94 | 0.30 | 3.68 | 9.19 | 4.15 | -1.15 |
| 7 | TB | 4.01 | −1.97 | 11.05 | 11.80 | -0.49 | 0.69 | 7.26 | -0.65 | -1.58 |
| 8 | PHI | 2.06 | −0.45 | -5.29 | 3.04 | 11.22 | 0.18 | 11.88 | 3.47 | -10.05 |
| 9 | DAL | 1.96 | −1.09 | -5.17 | 11.04 | 7.61 | 12.55 | -9.37 | -1.75 | -1.16 |
| 10 | SEA | 1.71 | +0.70 | 3.61 | 0.11 | -1.67 | -3.54 | 0.89 | 9.51 | 3.06 |
| 11 | MIN | 1.55 | +1.07 | -1.41 | -0.84 | -0.25 | 0.29 | 7.69 | -0.05 | 5.45 |
| 12 | NE | 0.73 | +0.60 | -3.58 | 9.00 | 1.74 | -7.77 | -10.14 | 11.68 | 4.15 |
| 13 | PIT | 0.62 | −0.56 | 7.58 | -3.07 | -0.29 | -0.13 | 0.16 | -0.25 | 0.33 |
| 14 | NO | 0.22 | −1.89 | 8.11 | 1.83 | -0.78 | 4.84 | -5.45 | -0.89 | -6.15 |
| 15 | DET | 0.21 | +2.76 | -11.77 | -9.95 | 0.14 | 4.86 | 13.28 | 5.61 | -0.73 |
| 16 | LAC | 0.17 | −0.62 | 2.49 | 2.47 | -0.53 | -5.77 | 5.49 | 2.08 | -5.05 |
| 17 | CIN | 0.13 | +0.65 | -9.21 | 4.45 | 6.96 | -2.98 | 2.88 | -7.21 | 6.03 |
| 18 | DEN | -0.40 | +1.08 | -7.17 | 1.48 | -2.02 | -4.91 | 6.34 | 7.15 | -3.66 |
| 19 | MIA | -1.23 | −1.82 | 1.60 | -1.65 | 1.52 | 8.14 | -0.33 | -6.14 | -11.74 |
| 20 | IND | -1.26 | −1.40 | 5.64 | 4.57 | -9.50 | -0.47 | -3.58 | 2.37 | -7.88 |
| 21 | ATL | -2.05 | +0.92 | -1.18 | -9.12 | -2.93 | -1.51 | 0.81 | -1.56 | 1.13 |
| 22 | JAX | -2.14 | +3.46 | -14.67 | -11.59 | 3.53 | 0.33 | -8.95 | 6.88 | 9.46 |
| 23 | CLE | -2.92 | −1.39 | 0.83 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.87 | -13.14 | -4.98 | -4.29 |
| 24 | WAS | -3.07 | −0.50 | 1.96 | -6.45 | -1.00 | -10.49 | 6.79 | -8.07 | -4.24 |
| 25 | HOU | -3.09 | +2.76 | -6.41 | -12.79 | -11.82 | -0.06 | 0.73 | 6.35 | 2.37 |
| 26 | ARI | -3.11 | −1.84 | 1.35 | 7.63 | -6.94 | -9.62 | 1.30 | -5.87 | -9.62 |
| 27 | CHI | -3.15 | +1.50 | -2.24 | -6.96 | -10.37 | -2.67 | -5.71 | 1.16 | 4.76 |
| 28 | TEN | -4.69 | −2.81 | 4.58 | 2.98 | -4.67 | -3.85 | -8.95 | -14.08 | -8.83 |
| 29 | LV | -5.06 | −0.51 | -3.98 | -3.30 | -3.41 | -2.97 | -8.57 | -11.79 | -1.40 |
| 30 | CAR | -5.36 | +0.48 | -2.77 | -5.96 | -3.36 | -11.28 | -13.53 | -5.34 | 4.73 |
| 31 | NYG | -6.64 | +0.29 | -5.86 | -10.41 | -1.43 | -9.84 | -10.62 | -3.95 | -4.37 |
| 32 | NYJ | -8.27 | +1.06 | -14.26 | -13.33 | -1.27 | -7.29 | -3.78 | -16.56 | -1.37 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2.43 | 4.99 | 12.41 | 14.56 | 1.59 | 0.92 | 15.42 |
| KC | 8.14 | 5.98 | 11.68 | 5.65 | 2.99 | 3.90 | 12.03 |
| JAX | -14.67 | -11.59 | 3.53 | 0.33 | -8.95 | 6.88 | 9.46 |
| LAR | 9.35 | 6.20 | -4.89 | 3.77 | -0.69 | 13.30 | 7.76 |
| BAL | 7.99 | -2.81 | 1.07 | 14.01 | 13.54 | 1.62 | 6.77 |
| CIN | -9.21 | 4.45 | 6.96 | -2.98 | 2.88 | -7.21 | 6.03 |
| MIN | -1.41 | -0.84 | -0.25 | 0.29 | 7.69 | -0.05 | 5.45 |
| CHI | -2.24 | -6.96 | -10.37 | -2.67 | -5.71 | 1.16 | 4.76 |
| CAR | -2.77 | -5.96 | -3.36 | -11.28 | -13.53 | -5.34 | 4.73 |
| NE | -3.58 | 9.00 | 1.74 | -7.77 | -10.14 | 11.68 | 4.15 |
| BUF | 7.79 | 13.49 | 10.46 | 10.72 | 10.00 | 9.01 | 3.17 |
| SEA | 3.61 | 0.11 | -1.67 | -3.54 | 0.89 | 9.51 | 3.06 |
| HOU | -6.41 | -12.79 | -11.82 | -0.06 | 0.73 | 6.35 | 2.37 |
| ATL | -1.18 | -9.12 | -2.93 | -1.51 | 0.81 | -1.56 | 1.13 |
| PIT | 7.58 | -3.07 | -0.29 | -0.13 | 0.16 | -0.25 | 0.33 |
| DET | -11.77 | -9.95 | 0.14 | 4.86 | 13.28 | 5.61 | -0.73 |
| GB | 10.46 | 6.94 | 0.30 | 3.68 | 9.19 | 4.15 | -1.15 |
| DAL | -5.17 | 11.04 | 7.61 | 12.55 | -9.37 | -1.75 | -1.16 |
| NYJ | -14.26 | -13.33 | -1.27 | -7.29 | -3.78 | -16.56 | -1.37 |
| LV | -3.98 | -3.30 | -3.41 | -2.97 | -8.57 | -11.79 | -1.40 |
| TB | 11.05 | 11.80 | -0.49 | 0.69 | 7.26 | -0.65 | -1.58 |
| DEN | -7.17 | 1.48 | -2.02 | -4.91 | 6.34 | 7.15 | -3.66 |
| WAS | 1.96 | -6.45 | -1.00 | -10.49 | 6.79 | -8.07 | -4.24 |
| CLE | 0.83 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.87 | -13.14 | -4.98 | -4.29 |
| NYG | -5.86 | -10.41 | -1.43 | -9.84 | -10.62 | -3.95 | -4.37 |
| LAC | 2.49 | 2.47 | -0.53 | -5.77 | 5.49 | 2.08 | -5.05 |
| NO | 8.11 | 1.83 | -0.78 | 4.84 | -5.45 | -0.89 | -6.15 |
| IND | 5.64 | 4.57 | -9.50 | -0.47 | -3.58 | 2.37 | -7.88 |
| TEN | 4.58 | 2.98 | -4.67 | -3.85 | -8.95 | -14.08 | -8.83 |
| ARI | 1.35 | 7.63 | -6.94 | -9.62 | 1.30 | -5.87 | -9.62 |
| PHI | -5.29 | 3.04 | 11.22 | 0.18 | 11.88 | 3.47 | -10.05 |
| MIA | 1.60 | -1.65 | 1.52 | 8.14 | -0.33 | -6.14 | -11.74 |
NET EXP (Off + Def) since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (11.42), 2019 Ravens (17.26), 2020 Buccaneers (11.05), 2021 Bills (13.49), 2022 49ers (12.41), 2023 49ers (14.56), 2024 Ravens (13.54), 2025 Rams (13.30), 2026 49ers (15.42).
49ers have led this stat 3 of 9 seasons.
The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.26; the worst Jets 2025 at -16.56.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_exp
- Side
- net_exp
- Family
- NET (Off + Def)
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.