Defensive: Conversions · Third down success (allowed)
P + N
About this stat ↓What Third down success (allowed) is
Third downs opponents converted against this defense. The count behind the rate.
Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Vikings led at 3.63; the league average was 4.98.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
MIN · 3.63
League average
4.98
Best to worst
3.19
All 32 teams, lower is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 3.63 | 16 |
| 2 | SEA | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | DET | 4.38 | 16 |
| 4 | BAL | 4.50 | 16 |
| 5 | LAR | 4.50 | 16 |
| 6 | PHI | 4.50 | 16 |
| 7 | PIT | 4.50 | 16 |
| 8 | CAR | 4.56 | 16 |
| 9 | NYJ | 4.56 | 16 |
| 10 | TB | 4.56 | 16 |
| 11 | BUF | 4.69 | 16 |
| 12 | CLE | 4.69 | 16 |
| 13 | TEN | 4.69 | 16 |
| 14 | CHI | 4.81 | 16 |
| 15 | NE | 4.81 | 16 |
| 16 | ARI | 4.88 | 16 |
| 17 | NO | 4.88 | 16 |
| 18 | LAC | 5 | 16 |
| 19 | GB | 5.06 | 16 |
| 20 | JAX | 5.06 | 16 |
| 21 | KC | 5.13 | 16 |
| 22 | DEN | 5.19 | 16 |
| 23 | IND | 5.19 | 16 |
| 24 | DAL | 5.38 | 16 |
| 25 | MIA | 5.44 | 16 |
| 26 | NYG | 5.44 | 16 |
| 27 | SF | 5.44 | 16 |
| 28 | WAS | 5.50 | 16 |
| 29 | HOU | 5.69 | 16 |
| 30 | LV | 5.88 | 16 |
| 31 | ATL | 5.94 | 16 |
| 32 | CIN | 6.81 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
MIN · 3.63
League laggard
CIN · 6.81
League average
4.98
Spread (max − min)
3.19
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 3.63 | -1.35 | 100% |
| 2 | SEA | 4 | -0.98 | 96.8% |
| 3 | DET | 4.38 | -0.60 | 93.5% |
| 4 | BAL | 4.50 | -0.48 | 90.3% |
| 5 | LAR | 4.50 | -0.48 | 87.1% |
| 6 | PHI | 4.50 | -0.48 | 83.9% |
| 7 | PIT | 4.50 | -0.48 | 80.6% |
| 8 | CAR | 4.56 | -0.41 | 77.4% |
| 9 | NYJ | 4.56 | -0.41 | 74.2% |
| 10 | TB | 4.56 | -0.41 | 71% |
| 11 | BUF | 4.69 | -0.29 | 67.7% |
| 12 | CLE | 4.69 | -0.29 | 64.5% |
| 13 | TEN | 4.69 | -0.29 | 61.3% |
| 14 | CHI | 4.81 | -0.16 | 58.1% |
| 15 | NE | 4.81 | -0.16 | 54.8% |
| 16 | ARI | 4.88 | -0.10 | 51.6% |
| 17 | NO | 4.88 | -0.10 | 48.4% |
| 18 | LAC | 5 | 0.02 | 45.2% |
| 19 | GB | 5.06 | 0.09 | 41.9% |
| 20 | JAX | 5.06 | 0.09 | 38.7% |
| 21 | KC | 5.13 | 0.15 | 35.5% |
| 22 | DEN | 5.19 | 0.21 | 32.3% |
| 23 | IND | 5.19 | 0.21 | 29% |
| 24 | DAL | 5.38 | 0.40 | 25.8% |
| 25 | MIA | 5.44 | 0.46 | 22.6% |
| 26 | NYG | 5.44 | 0.46 | 19.4% |
| 27 | SF | 5.44 | 0.46 | 16.1% |
| 28 | WAS | 5.50 | 0.52 | 12.9% |
| 29 | HOU | 5.69 | 0.71 | 9.7% |
| 30 | LV | 5.88 | 0.90 | 6.5% |
| 31 | ATL | 5.94 | 0.96 | 3.2% |
| 32 | CIN | 6.81 | 1.84 | 0% |
Does Third down success (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 818–760–37 ATS (51.8%) across 2020–2025, #177 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (136–118, 53.5%); its worst 2023 (121–137, 46.9%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 136–118–2 | 53.5% |
| 2021 | 272 | 144–126–2 | 53.3% |
| 2022 | 271 | 140–124–7 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 272 | 121–137–14 | 46.9% |
| 2024 | 272 | 139–124–9 | 52.9% |
| 2025 | 272 | 138–131–3 | 51.3% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
MIN · 4.56
Multi-year laggard
CAR · 5.72
Biggest improver
CHI · −0.33/yr
Biggest decliner
BAL · +0.24/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 4.56 | −0.19 | 4.63 | 4.59 | 4.94 | 5.65 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 3 |
| 2 | CHI | 4.82 | −0.33 | 5 | 5.06 | 5.88 | 5.82 | 4.76 | 4.59 | 2.60 |
| 3 | BAL | 4.84 | +0.24 | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.35 | 5.41 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 5.40 |
| 4 | LAR | 4.85 | −0.11 | 4.63 | 5.47 | 4.94 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 4.82 | 4 |
| 5 | BUF | 4.94 | +0.21 | 4.75 | 3.94 | 4.88 | 4.88 | 5.29 | 5.06 | 5.80 |
| 6 | TB | 4.95 | −0.16 | 5.13 | 5.18 | 5.29 | 5.47 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 4.20 |
| 7 | NE | 4.97 | −0.03 | 4.75 | 4.65 | 5.71 | 5.12 | 5.47 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| 8 | LAC | 5.00 | −0.33 | 5.63 | 6.35 | 4.59 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 4.12 | 4 |
| 9 | PIT | 5.02 | −0.09 | 5.25 | 5.06 | 5.12 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 5.88 | 4.20 |
| 10 | NYG | 5.03 | −0.08 | 5.69 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 4.82 | 5.24 | 4.59 | 5.20 |
| 11 | CLE | 5.03 | −0.01 | 5.63 | 5.12 | 5.06 | 3.94 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 5.80 |
| 12 | MIA | 5.07 | +0.18 | 3.63 | 5.59 | 5.71 | 5 | 4.41 | 4.94 | 6.20 |
| 13 | HOU | 5.12 | −0.16 | 6 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.82 | 5 |
| 14 | GB | 5.13 | +0.23 | 4.63 | 5.12 | 4.29 | 5.47 | 4.65 | 5.18 | 6.60 |
| 15 | IND | 5.14 | −0.13 | 5.44 | 5.06 | 5 | 5.29 | 6.12 | 5.47 | 3.60 |
| 16 | SF | 5.15 | +0.10 | 4.50 | 5.35 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.47 | 4.59 | 5.80 |
| 17 | NYJ | 5.16 | −0.26 | 5.69 | 5.82 | 5.47 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 4.76 | 4.20 |
| 18 | NO | 5.17 | +0.02 | 4.94 | 5.24 | 5.76 | 4.65 | 5.41 | 4.41 | 5.80 |
| 19 | ARI | 5.18 | +0.04 | 5.06 | 4.71 | 5.12 | 5.71 | 5.35 | 5.29 | 5 |
| 20 | KC | 5.19 | +0.12 | 4.88 | 4.76 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 5.53 | 5.76 | 5.25 |
| 21 | DEN | 5.21 | +0.05 | 5.56 | 5.94 | 4.41 | 4 | 5.24 | 4.71 | 6.60 |
| 22 | TEN | 5.22 | −0.16 | 6.94 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 5 |
| 23 | DET | 5.23 | +0.03 | 5.75 | 5.41 | 5.53 | 4.47 | 3.59 | 4.65 | 7.20 |
| 24 | DAL | 5.23 | +0.03 | 6.25 | 4.47 | 5.18 | 4.71 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 6 |
| 25 | JAX | 5.26 | −0.16 | 5.44 | 5.65 | 5.59 | 4.94 | 5.82 | 5.18 | 4.20 |
| 26 | WAS | 5.32 | +0.02 | 5.19 | 6.53 | 4 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 5.24 | 6 |
| 27 | CIN | 5.40 | −0.01 | 5.69 | 5.47 | 5.31 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.24 | 5.80 |
| 28 | SEA | 5.41 | −0.29 | 6.63 | 5.18 | 5.65 | 6.29 | 5 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| 29 | PHI | 5.43 | +0.04 | 5.13 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.47 | 4.41 | 5.53 | 5.80 |
| 30 | ATL | 5.48 | −0.01 | 5.06 | 6.24 | 5.94 | 4.59 | 5.65 | 5.12 | 5.80 |
| 31 | LV | 5.64 | −0.04 | 6.25 | 5.47 | 5.24 | 5.65 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 5.40 |
| 32 | CAR | 5.72 | +0.05 | 6.25 | 4.88 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.59 | 5.88 | 5.75 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 5 | 5.06 | 5.88 | 5.82 | 4.76 | 4.59 | 2.60 |
| MIN | 4.63 | 4.59 | 4.94 | 5.65 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 3 |
| IND | 5.44 | 5.06 | 5 | 5.29 | 6.12 | 5.47 | 3.60 |
| LAC | 5.63 | 6.35 | 4.59 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 4.12 | 4 |
| LAR | 4.63 | 5.47 | 4.94 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 4.82 | 4 |
| JAX | 5.44 | 5.65 | 5.59 | 4.94 | 5.82 | 5.18 | 4.20 |
| NYJ | 5.69 | 5.82 | 5.47 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 4.76 | 4.20 |
| PIT | 5.25 | 5.06 | 5.12 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 5.88 | 4.20 |
| TB | 5.13 | 5.18 | 5.29 | 5.47 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 4.20 |
| NE | 4.75 | 4.65 | 5.71 | 5.12 | 5.47 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| SEA | 6.63 | 5.18 | 5.65 | 6.29 | 5 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| ARI | 5.06 | 4.71 | 5.12 | 5.71 | 5.35 | 5.29 | 5 |
| HOU | 6 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.82 | 5 |
| TEN | 6.94 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 5 |
| NYG | 5.69 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 4.82 | 5.24 | 4.59 | 5.20 |
| KC | 4.88 | 4.76 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 5.53 | 5.76 | 5.25 |
| BAL | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.35 | 5.41 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 5.40 |
| LV | 6.25 | 5.47 | 5.24 | 5.65 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 5.40 |
| CAR | 6.25 | 4.88 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.59 | 5.88 | 5.75 |
| ATL | 5.06 | 6.24 | 5.94 | 4.59 | 5.65 | 5.12 | 5.80 |
| BUF | 4.75 | 3.94 | 4.88 | 4.88 | 5.29 | 5.06 | 5.80 |
| CIN | 5.69 | 5.47 | 5.31 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.24 | 5.80 |
| CLE | 5.63 | 5.12 | 5.06 | 3.94 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 5.80 |
| NO | 4.94 | 5.24 | 5.76 | 4.65 | 5.41 | 4.41 | 5.80 |
| PHI | 5.13 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.47 | 4.41 | 5.53 | 5.80 |
| SF | 4.50 | 5.35 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.47 | 4.59 | 5.80 |
| DAL | 6.25 | 4.47 | 5.18 | 4.71 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 6 |
| WAS | 5.19 | 6.53 | 4 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 5.24 | 6 |
| MIA | 3.63 | 5.59 | 5.71 | 5 | 4.41 | 4.94 | 6.20 |
| DEN | 5.56 | 5.94 | 4.41 | 4 | 5.24 | 4.71 | 6.60 |
| GB | 4.63 | 5.12 | 4.29 | 5.47 | 4.65 | 5.18 | 6.60 |
| DET | 5.75 | 5.41 | 5.53 | 4.47 | 3.59 | 4.65 | 7.20 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_team_conversions_third_down_success
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Conversions
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- lower is better
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.