What Third down success (allowed) is

Third downs opponents converted against this defense. The count behind the rate.

Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 3.94; the league average was 5.23.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 3.94

League average

5.23

Best to worst

2.59

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	3.94	17
2	BAL	4.18	17
3	DAL	4.47	17
4	MIN	4.59	17
5	TEN	4.59	17
6	NE	4.65	17
7	ARI	4.71	17
8	KC	4.76	17
9	CAR	4.88	17
10	CHI	5.06	17
11	IND	5.06	17
12	PIT	5.06	17
13	CLE	5.12	17
14	GB	5.12	17
15	SEA	5.18	17
16	TB	5.18	17
17	NO	5.24	17
18	HOU	5.29	17
19	SF	5.35	17
20	DET	5.41	17
21	NYG	5.41	17
22	CIN	5.47	17
23	LAR	5.47	17
24	LV	5.47	17
25	MIA	5.59	17
26	PHI	5.59	17
27	JAX	5.65	17
28	NYJ	5.82	17
29	DEN	5.94	17
30	ATL	6.24	17
31	LAC	6.35	17
32	WAS	6.53	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 3.94

League laggard

WAS · 6.53

League average

5.23

Spread (max − min)

2.59

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	3.94	-1.29	100%
2	BAL	4.18	-1.05	96.8%
3	DAL	4.47	-0.76	93.5%
4	MIN	4.59	-0.64	90.3%
5	TEN	4.59	-0.64	87.1%
6	NE	4.65	-0.58	83.9%
7	ARI	4.71	-0.52	80.6%
8	KC	4.76	-0.47	77.4%
9	CAR	4.88	-0.35	74.2%
10	CHI	5.06	-0.17	71%
11	IND	5.06	-0.17	67.7%
12	PIT	5.06	-0.17	64.5%
13	CLE	5.12	-0.11	61.3%
14	GB	5.12	-0.11	58.1%
15	SEA	5.18	-0.05	54.8%
16	TB	5.18	-0.05	51.6%
17	NO	5.24	0.01	48.4%
18	HOU	5.29	0.06	45.2%
19	SF	5.35	0.12	41.9%
20	DET	5.41	0.18	38.7%
21	NYG	5.41	0.18	35.5%
22	CIN	5.47	0.24	32.3%
23	LAR	5.47	0.24	29%
24	LV	5.47	0.24	25.8%
25	MIA	5.59	0.36	22.6%
26	PHI	5.59	0.36	19.4%
27	JAX	5.65	0.42	16.1%
28	NYJ	5.82	0.59	12.9%
29	DEN	5.94	0.71	9.7%
30	ATL	6.24	1.01	6.5%
31	LAC	6.35	1.12	3.2%
32	WAS	6.53	1.30	0%

Does Third down success (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 818–760–37 ATS (51.8%) across 2020–2025, #177 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (136–118, 53.5%); its worst 2023 (121–137, 46.9%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	136–118–2	53.5%
2021	272	144–126–2	53.3%
2022	271	140–124–7	53.0%
2023	272	121–137–14	46.9%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	138–131–3	51.3%

Third down success (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 3.94 — they ranked #7 last year. Commanders are last at 6.53 — #16 last year.

The league average is 5.23, down 0.08 from 5.31 last year.

Biggest riser: Titans, #32 → #5. Biggest faller: Dolphins, #1 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 2.59; 21 teams are within 0.58 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIA · +1.96

Biggest faller

TEN · −2.35

Most consistent

MIN · −0.04

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.08

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	MIA	5.59	3.63	+1.96
2	WAS	6.53	5.19	+1.34
3	ATL	6.24	5.06	+1.17
4	SF	5.35	4.50	+0.85
5	LAR	5.47	4.63	+0.85
6	LAC	6.35	5.63	+0.73
7	GB	5.12	4.63	+0.49
8	PHI	5.59	5.13	+0.46
9	DEN	5.94	5.56	+0.38
10	NO	5.24	4.94	+0.30
11	JAX	5.65	5.44	+0.21
12	NYJ	5.82	5.69	+0.14
13	CHI	5.06	5	+0.06
14	BAL	4.18	4.13	+0.05
15	TB	5.18	5.13	+0.05
16	MIN	4.59	4.63	−0.04
17	NE	4.65	4.75	−0.10
18	KC	4.76	4.88	−0.11
19	PIT	5.06	5.25	−0.19
20	CIN	5.47	5.69	−0.22
21	NYG	5.41	5.69	−0.28
22	DET	5.41	5.75	−0.34
23	ARI	4.71	5.06	−0.36
24	IND	5.06	5.44	−0.38
25	CLE	5.12	5.63	−0.51
26	HOU	5.29	6	−0.71
27	LV	5.47	6.25	−0.78
28	BUF	3.94	4.75	−0.81
29	CAR	4.88	6.25	−1.37
30	SEA	5.18	6.63	−1.45
31	DAL	4.47	6.25	−1.78
32	TEN	4.59	6.94	−2.35

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 4.56

Multi-year laggard

CAR · 5.72

Biggest improver

CHI · −0.33/yr

Biggest decliner

BAL · +0.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	4.56	−0.19	4.63	4.59	4.94	5.65	4.59	4.53	3
2	CHI	4.82	−0.33	5	5.06	5.88	5.82	4.76	4.59	2.60
3	BAL	4.84	+0.24	4.13	4.18	4.35	5.41	5.29	5.12	5.40
4	LAR	4.85	−0.11	4.63	5.47	4.94	5.18	4.94	4.82	4
5	BUF	4.94	+0.21	4.75	3.94	4.88	4.88	5.29	5.06	5.80
6	TB	4.95	−0.16	5.13	5.18	5.29	5.47	4.71	4.65	4.20
7	NE	4.97	−0.03	4.75	4.65	5.71	5.12	5.47	4.53	4.60
8	LAC	5.00	−0.33	5.63	6.35	4.59	5.53	4.76	4.12	4
9	PIT	5.02	−0.09	5.25	5.06	5.12	5.41	4.24	5.88	4.20
10	NYG	5.03	−0.08	5.69	5.41	4.24	4.82	5.24	4.59	5.20
11	CLE	5.03	−0.01	5.63	5.12	5.06	3.94	4.76	4.88	5.80
12	MIA	5.07	+0.18	3.63	5.59	5.71	5	4.41	4.94	6.20
13	HOU	5.12	−0.16	6	5.29	5.12	4.94	4.65	4.82	5
14	GB	5.13	+0.23	4.63	5.12	4.29	5.47	4.65	5.18	6.60
15	IND	5.14	−0.13	5.44	5.06	5	5.29	6.12	5.47	3.60
16	SF	5.15	+0.10	4.50	5.35	5.18	5.18	5.47	4.59	5.80
17	NYJ	5.16	−0.26	5.69	5.82	5.47	5.29	4.88	4.76	4.20
18	NO	5.17	+0.02	4.94	5.24	5.76	4.65	5.41	4.41	5.80
19	ARI	5.18	+0.04	5.06	4.71	5.12	5.71	5.35	5.29	5
20	KC	5.19	+0.12	4.88	4.76	5.18	4.94	5.53	5.76	5.25
21	DEN	5.21	+0.05	5.56	5.94	4.41	4	5.24	4.71	6.60
22	TEN	5.22	−0.16	6.94	4.59	4.53	5.29	5.29	4.88	5
23	DET	5.23	+0.03	5.75	5.41	5.53	4.47	3.59	4.65	7.20
24	DAL	5.23	+0.03	6.25	4.47	5.18	4.71	4.41	5.59	6
25	JAX	5.26	−0.16	5.44	5.65	5.59	4.94	5.82	5.18	4.20
26	WAS	5.32	+0.02	5.19	6.53	4	5.53	4.76	5.24	6
27	CIN	5.40	−0.01	5.69	5.47	5.31	5.18	5.12	5.24	5.80
28	SEA	5.41	−0.29	6.63	5.18	5.65	6.29	5	4.53	4.60
29	PHI	5.43	+0.04	5.13	5.59	5.12	6.47	4.41	5.53	5.80
30	ATL	5.48	−0.01	5.06	6.24	5.94	4.59	5.65	5.12	5.80
31	LV	5.64	−0.04	6.25	5.47	5.24	5.65	5.24	6.24	5.40
32	CAR	5.72	+0.05	6.25	4.88	5.59	5.12	6.59	5.88	5.75

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	4.75	3.94	4.88	4.88	5.29	5.06	5.80
BAL	4.13	4.18	4.35	5.41	5.29	5.12	5.40
DAL	6.25	4.47	5.18	4.71	4.41	5.59	6
MIN	4.63	4.59	4.94	5.65	4.59	4.53	3
TEN	6.94	4.59	4.53	5.29	5.29	4.88	5
NE	4.75	4.65	5.71	5.12	5.47	4.53	4.60
ARI	5.06	4.71	5.12	5.71	5.35	5.29	5
KC	4.88	4.76	5.18	4.94	5.53	5.76	5.25
CAR	6.25	4.88	5.59	5.12	6.59	5.88	5.75
CHI	5	5.06	5.88	5.82	4.76	4.59	2.60
IND	5.44	5.06	5	5.29	6.12	5.47	3.60
PIT	5.25	5.06	5.12	5.41	4.24	5.88	4.20
CLE	5.63	5.12	5.06	3.94	4.76	4.88	5.80
GB	4.63	5.12	4.29	5.47	4.65	5.18	6.60
SEA	6.63	5.18	5.65	6.29	5	4.53	4.60
TB	5.13	5.18	5.29	5.47	4.71	4.65	4.20
NO	4.94	5.24	5.76	4.65	5.41	4.41	5.80
HOU	6	5.29	5.12	4.94	4.65	4.82	5
SF	4.50	5.35	5.18	5.18	5.47	4.59	5.80
DET	5.75	5.41	5.53	4.47	3.59	4.65	7.20
NYG	5.69	5.41	4.24	4.82	5.24	4.59	5.20
CIN	5.69	5.47	5.31	5.18	5.12	5.24	5.80
LV	6.25	5.47	5.24	5.65	5.24	6.24	5.40
LAR	4.63	5.47	4.94	5.18	4.94	4.82	4
MIA	3.63	5.59	5.71	5	4.41	4.94	6.20
PHI	5.13	5.59	5.12	6.47	4.41	5.53	5.80
JAX	5.44	5.65	5.59	4.94	5.82	5.18	4.20
NYJ	5.69	5.82	5.47	5.29	4.88	4.76	4.20
DEN	5.56	5.94	4.41	4	5.24	4.71	6.60
ATL	5.06	6.24	5.94	4.59	5.65	5.12	5.80
LAC	5.63	6.35	4.59	5.53	4.76	4.12	4
WAS	5.19	6.53	4	5.53	4.76	5.24	6

Third down success (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (3.63), 2019 Patriots (2.94), 2020 Dolphins (3.63), 2021 Bills (3.94).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 2.94; the worst Commanders 2019 at 7.06.

The league average has risen from 4.98 in 2018 to 5.23 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_third_down_success
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.