What Fourth down att (allowed) is

Fourth downs opponents went for against this defense, instead of punting or kicking. Partly the opponent's philosophy, partly how this team's game situations invited it.

Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Panthers led at 0.59; the league average was 1.46.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

CAR · 0.59

League average

1.46

Best to worst

1.82

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CAR	0.59	17
2	ARI	0.82	17
3	CIN	0.88	17
4	CLE	0.88	17
5	NYJ	0.94	17
6	NE	1.06	17
7	PIT	1.06	17
8	BUF	1.12	17
9	NYG	1.12	17
10	TEN	1.24	17
11	WAS	1.24	17
12	CHI	1.29	17
13	ATL	1.35	17
14	MIN	1.47	17
15	SEA	1.47	17
16	TB	1.47	17
17	DET	1.53	17
18	IND	1.53	17
19	LV	1.53	17
20	NO	1.53	17
21	SF	1.59	17
22	KC	1.65	17
23	HOU	1.71	17
24	GB	1.76	17
25	LAR	1.76	17
26	MIA	1.76	17
27	BAL	1.88	17
28	LAC	1.88	17
29	DEN	1.94	17
30	PHI	2	17
31	DAL	2.18	17
32	JAX	2.41	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CAR · 0.59

League laggard

JAX · 2.41

League average

1.46

Spread (max − min)

1.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CAR	0.59	-0.87	100%
2	ARI	0.82	-0.63	96.8%
3	CIN	0.88	-0.58	93.5%
4	CLE	0.88	-0.58	90.3%
5	NYJ	0.94	-0.52	87.1%
6	NE	1.06	-0.40	83.9%
7	PIT	1.06	-0.40	80.6%
8	BUF	1.12	-0.34	77.4%
9	NYG	1.12	-0.34	74.2%
10	TEN	1.24	-0.22	71%
11	WAS	1.24	-0.22	67.7%
12	CHI	1.29	-0.16	64.5%
13	ATL	1.35	-0.10	61.3%
14	MIN	1.47	0.01	58.1%
15	SEA	1.47	0.01	54.8%
16	TB	1.47	0.01	51.6%
17	DET	1.53	0.07	48.4%
18	IND	1.53	0.07	45.2%
19	LV	1.53	0.07	41.9%
20	NO	1.53	0.07	38.7%
21	SF	1.59	0.13	35.5%
22	KC	1.65	0.19	32.3%
23	HOU	1.71	0.25	29%
24	GB	1.76	0.31	25.8%
25	LAR	1.76	0.31	22.6%
26	MIA	1.76	0.31	19.4%
27	BAL	1.88	0.42	16.1%
28	LAC	1.88	0.42	12.9%
29	DEN	1.94	0.48	9.7%
30	PHI	2	0.54	6.5%
31	DAL	2.18	0.72	3.2%
32	JAX	2.41	0.95	0%

Does Fourth down att (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 760–818–37 ATS (48.2%) across 2020–2025, #284 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (108–155, 41.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	130–124–2	51.2%
2021	272	130–140–2	48.1%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	126–132–14	48.8%
2024	272	108–155–9	41.1%
2025	272	129–140–3	48.0%

Fourth down att (allowed) in 2023 vs 2022

Panthers lead at 0.59 — they ranked #7 last year. Jaguars are last at 2.41 — #29 last year.

The league average is 1.46, up 0.10 from 1.36 last year.

Biggest riser: Bills, #32 → #8. Biggest faller: Broncos, #1 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 1.82; 21 teams are within 0.41 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DEN · +1.12

Biggest faller

BUF · −0.94

Most consistent

IND · +0.06

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.10

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	DEN	1.94	0.82	+1.12
2	LAC	1.88	0.88	+1
3	DAL	2.18	1.29	+0.88
4	GB	1.76	1.12	+0.65
5	JAX	2.41	1.82	+0.59
6	LAR	1.76	1.18	+0.59
7	HOU	1.71	1.18	+0.53
8	PHI	2	1.47	+0.53
9	BAL	1.88	1.41	+0.47
10	CHI	1.29	0.88	+0.41
11	NO	1.53	1.12	+0.41
12	LV	1.53	1.18	+0.35
13	ATL	1.35	1.06	+0.29
14	NYG	1.12	1	+0.12
15	SF	1.59	1.47	+0.12
16	TB	1.47	1.41	+0.06
17	IND	1.53	1.47	+0.06
18	DET	1.53	1.59	−0.06
19	MIA	1.76	1.82	−0.06
20	ARI	0.82	0.94	−0.12
21	SEA	1.47	1.65	−0.18
22	CLE	0.88	1.06	−0.18
23	PIT	1.06	1.24	−0.18
24	MIN	1.47	1.71	−0.24
25	WAS	1.24	1.47	−0.24
26	TEN	1.24	1.53	−0.29
27	KC	1.65	2.06	−0.41
28	NE	1.06	1.53	−0.47
29	CAR	0.59	1.06	−0.47
30	CIN	0.88	1.44	−0.56
31	NYJ	0.94	1.53	−0.59
32	BUF	1.12	2.06	−0.94

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

NYG · 1.08

Multi-year laggard

BAL · 1.74

Biggest improver

TEN · −0.15/yr

Biggest decliner

CAR · +0.17/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	NYG	1.08	−0.07	1.13	1.35	1	1.12	1.24	1.29	0.40
2	CAR	1.13	+0.17	0.63	1.24	1.06	0.59	0.88	1.29	2.25
3	CLE	1.15	−0.12	1.69	1.47	1.06	0.88	1.06	1.06	0.80
4	TEN	1.19	−0.15	1.63	1.41	1.53	1.24	0.76	0.94	0.80
5	CHI	1.20	−0.03	1.31	1.41	0.88	1.29	1.12	1.35	1
6	CIN	1.22	+0.04	1	1.06	1.44	0.88	1.59	1.59	1
7	NYJ	1.23	+0.08	0.75	1.24	1.53	0.94	1.24	1.29	1.60
8	LV	1.23	−0.04	1.06	1.71	1.18	1.53	0.76	1.18	1.20
9	LAC	1.31	+0.05	0.94	1.29	0.88	1.88	1.71	1.47	1
10	HOU	1.33	+0.01	1.31	1.12	1.18	1.71	1.53	1.24	1.20
11	NO	1.34	−0.13	1.88	1.24	1.12	1.53	1.59	2	0
12	NE	1.35	−0.02	1	1.88	1.53	1.06	1.24	1.76	1
13	WAS	1.36	−0.03	1.50	1.24	1.47	1.24	1.41	1.88	0.80
14	DAL	1.37	−0.10	1.31	1.53	1.29	2.18	1.47	1.18	0.60
15	MIA	1.39	−0.09	1.63	1.06	1.82	1.76	1.18	1.65	0.60
16	ARI	1.39	+0.07	1.31	1.76	0.94	0.82	1.41	1.47	2
17	PIT	1.41	+0.08	1.25	1.41	1.24	1.06	1.29	2.24	1.40
18	DEN	1.42	+0.09	0.88	1.53	0.82	1.94	1.76	1.59	1.40
19	IND	1.43	+0.14	0.88	1.24	1.47	1.53	1.24	1.65	2
20	DET	1.46	+0.13	1.13	0.82	1.59	1.53	1.71	1.88	1.60
21	SF	1.49	+0.05	1.25	1.47	1.47	1.59	1.53	1.29	1.80
22	TB	1.53	−0.01	1.50	1.65	1.41	1.47	1.71	1.76	1.20
23	ATL	1.54	+0.14	1.44	1.29	1.06	1.35	1.53	1.88	2.20
24	LAR	1.54	+0.02	1.31	1.88	1.18	1.76	1	2.47	1.20
25	BUF	1.60	−0.00	1.19	2	2.06	1.12	1.88	1.12	1.80
26	SEA	1.62	+0.01	1.44	1.82	1.65	1.47	1.18	2.59	1.20
27	JAX	1.63	+0.08	1.13	1.24	1.82	2.41	1.41	1.82	1.60
28	KC	1.68	+0.05	1.25	1.82	2.06	1.65	1.35	1.35	2.25
29	MIN	1.69	+0.04	1.50	1.76	1.71	1.47	2.06	1.35	2
30	GB	1.72	+0.07	1.50	1.94	1.12	1.76	1.76	2.12	1.80
31	PHI	1.73	+0.15	1.06	1.71	1.47	2	1.76	1.71	2.40
32	BAL	1.74	+0.04	2.19	1.06	1.41	1.88	1.65	2.41	1.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAR	0.63	1.24	1.06	0.59	0.88	1.29	2.25
ARI	1.31	1.76	0.94	0.82	1.41	1.47	2
CIN	1	1.06	1.44	0.88	1.59	1.59	1
CLE	1.69	1.47	1.06	0.88	1.06	1.06	0.80
NYJ	0.75	1.24	1.53	0.94	1.24	1.29	1.60
NE	1	1.88	1.53	1.06	1.24	1.76	1
PIT	1.25	1.41	1.24	1.06	1.29	2.24	1.40
BUF	1.19	2	2.06	1.12	1.88	1.12	1.80
NYG	1.13	1.35	1	1.12	1.24	1.29	0.40
TEN	1.63	1.41	1.53	1.24	0.76	0.94	0.80
WAS	1.50	1.24	1.47	1.24	1.41	1.88	0.80
CHI	1.31	1.41	0.88	1.29	1.12	1.35	1
ATL	1.44	1.29	1.06	1.35	1.53	1.88	2.20
MIN	1.50	1.76	1.71	1.47	2.06	1.35	2
SEA	1.44	1.82	1.65	1.47	1.18	2.59	1.20
TB	1.50	1.65	1.41	1.47	1.71	1.76	1.20
DET	1.13	0.82	1.59	1.53	1.71	1.88	1.60
IND	0.88	1.24	1.47	1.53	1.24	1.65	2
LV	1.06	1.71	1.18	1.53	0.76	1.18	1.20
NO	1.88	1.24	1.12	1.53	1.59	2	0
SF	1.25	1.47	1.47	1.59	1.53	1.29	1.80
KC	1.25	1.82	2.06	1.65	1.35	1.35	2.25
HOU	1.31	1.12	1.18	1.71	1.53	1.24	1.20
GB	1.50	1.94	1.12	1.76	1.76	2.12	1.80
LAR	1.31	1.88	1.18	1.76	1	2.47	1.20
MIA	1.63	1.06	1.82	1.76	1.18	1.65	0.60
BAL	2.19	1.06	1.41	1.88	1.65	2.41	1.60
LAC	0.94	1.29	0.88	1.88	1.71	1.47	1
DEN	0.88	1.53	0.82	1.94	1.76	1.59	1.40
PHI	1.06	1.71	1.47	2	1.76	1.71	2.40
DAL	1.31	1.53	1.29	2.18	1.47	1.18	0.60
JAX	1.13	1.24	1.82	2.41	1.41	1.82	1.60

Fourth down att (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bills (0.63), 2019 Panthers (0.56), 2020 Panthers (0.63), 2021 Lions (0.82), 2022 Broncos (0.82), 2023 Panthers (0.59).

Panthers have led this stat 3 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Panthers 2019 at 0.56; the worst Jaguars 2023 at 2.41.

The league average has risen from 1.04 in 2018 to 1.46 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_att
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.