What Pass td perc (allowed) is

Touchdown rate allowed: passing touchdowns allowed divided by opponent attempts, as a percentage. The share of throws against this defense that scored.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 2.25; the league average was 4.48.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 2.25

League average

4.48

Best to worst

4.21

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	2.25	17
2	LAR	2.71	17
3	NO	3.37	17
4	SEA	3.63	17
5	MIA	3.78	17
6	TEN	3.79	17
7	TB	3.82	17
8	NE	3.89	17
9	DAL	3.89	17
10	DEN	3.89	17
11	CIN	4.12	17
12	PIT	4.25	17
13	KC	4.40	17
14	JAX	4.41	17
15	NYG	4.41	17
16	SF	4.55	17
17	MIN	4.59	17
18	PHI	4.72	17
19	NYJ	4.74	17
20	LV	4.75	17
21	LAC	4.79	17
22	HOU	4.92	17
23	BAL	4.94	17
24	CAR	4.98	17
25	CLE	4.98	17
26	GB	5.10	17
27	ARI	5.31	17
28	ATL	5.32	17
29	IND	5.32	17
30	WAS	5.65	17
31	DET	5.66	17
32	CHI	6.46	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 2.25

League laggard

CHI · 6.46

League average

4.48

Spread (max − min)

4.21

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	2.25	-2.23	100%
2	LAR	2.71	-1.77	96.8%
3	NO	3.37	-1.11	93.5%
4	SEA	3.63	-0.85	90.3%
5	MIA	3.78	-0.70	87.1%
6	TEN	3.79	-0.69	83.9%
7	TB	3.82	-0.66	80.6%
8	NE	3.89	-0.59	77.4%
9	DAL	3.89	-0.59	74.2%
10	DEN	3.89	-0.59	71%
11	CIN	4.12	-0.36	67.7%
12	PIT	4.25	-0.23	64.5%
13	KC	4.40	-0.08	61.3%
14	JAX	4.41	-0.07	58.1%
15	NYG	4.41	-0.07	54.8%
16	SF	4.55	0.07	51.6%
17	MIN	4.59	0.11	48.4%
18	PHI	4.72	0.24	45.2%
19	NYJ	4.74	0.26	41.9%
20	LV	4.75	0.27	38.7%
21	LAC	4.79	0.31	35.5%
22	HOU	4.92	0.44	32.3%
23	BAL	4.94	0.46	29%
24	CAR	4.98	0.50	25.8%
25	CLE	4.98	0.50	22.6%
26	GB	5.10	0.62	19.4%
27	ARI	5.31	0.83	16.1%
28	ATL	5.32	0.84	12.9%
29	IND	5.32	0.84	9.7%
30	WAS	5.65	1.17	6.5%
31	DET	5.66	1.18	3.2%
32	CHI	6.46	1.98	0%

Does Pass td perc (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 855–723–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #92 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (153–101, 60.2%); its worst 2021 (133–137, 49.3%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	153–101–2	60.2%
2021	272	133–137–2	49.3%
2022	271	144–120–7	54.5%
2023	272	129–129–14	50.0%
2024	272	150–113–9	57.0%
2025	272	146–123–3	54.3%

Pass td perc (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 2.25 — they ranked #8 last year. Bears are last at 6.46 — #20 last year.

The league average is 4.48, down 0.34 from 4.82 last year.

Biggest riser: Titans, #28 → #6. Biggest faller: Commanders, #7 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 4.21; 25 teams are within 0.85 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +1.69

Biggest faller

DAL · −2.66

Most consistent

LV · −0.03

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.34

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	WAS	5.65	3.95	+1.69
2	CHI	6.46	5.11	+1.35
3	BAL	4.94	3.67	+1.27
4	IND	5.32	4.27	+1.05
5	GB	5.10	4.28	+0.82
6	ARI	5.31	4.55	+0.76
7	NYG	4.41	3.80	+0.61
8	SEA	3.63	3.39	+0.24
9	CAR	4.98	4.76	+0.22
10	DEN	3.89	3.69	+0.20
11	PIT	4.25	4.16	+0.09
12	LV	4.75	4.79	−0.03
13	MIA	3.78	3.85	−0.08
14	SF	4.55	4.64	−0.08
15	ATL	5.32	5.41	−0.10
16	CLE	4.98	5.26	−0.28
17	PHI	4.72	5.08	−0.36
18	LAR	2.71	3.10	−0.40
19	LAC	4.79	5.30	−0.51
20	NE	3.89	4.44	−0.56
21	HOU	4.92	5.49	−0.58
22	KC	4.40	5.17	−0.77
23	TB	3.82	4.68	−0.86
24	NYJ	4.74	5.61	−0.87
25	MIN	4.59	5.49	−0.91
26	DET	5.66	6.79	−1.13
27	NO	3.37	4.98	−1.61
28	BUF	2.25	3.97	−1.73
29	CIN	4.12	5.88	−1.76
30	TEN	3.79	5.66	−1.87
31	JAX	4.41	6.37	−1.96
32	DAL	3.89	6.55	−2.66

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BAL · 3.66

Multi-year laggard

ARI · 5.74

Biggest improver

MIN · −0.47/yr

Biggest decliner

ARI · +0.55/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BAL	3.66	−0.14	3.67	4.94	3.36	2.81	4.27	3.65	2.89
2	MIN	3.80	−0.47	5.49	4.59	3.69	3.80	3.73	3.35	1.92
3	DEN	3.83	+0.01	3.69	3.89	3.29	5.04	3.61	3.03	4.24
4	SEA	3.98	+0.18	3.39	3.63	4.19	3.58	4.55	3.31	5.19
5	SF	4.05	−0.11	4.64	4.55	3.36	3.19	4.81	4.94	2.87
6	BUF	4.06	+0.43	3.97	2.25	3.66	3.24	4.81	4.05	6.40
7	KC	4.10	−0.37	5.17	4.40	5.31	3.42	4.21	3.52	2.68
8	NO	4.12	+0.14	4.98	3.37	3.15	3.91	3.19	5.08	5.16
9	HOU	4.13	−0.22	5.49	4.92	2.87	2.98	5.57	3.68	3.37
10	LAR	4.14	+0.41	3.10	2.71	4.13	3.93	5.33	4.38	5.37
11	PHI	4.14	−0.34	5.08	4.72	3.93	5.34	4.01	2.56	3.35
12	PIT	4.24	−0.11	4.16	4.25	5.33	3.99	3.90	4.85	3.16
13	NE	4.25	−0.01	4.44	3.89	4.67	3.28	5.04	4.72	3.68
14	NYG	4.30	+0.23	3.80	4.41	3.69	3.61	4.55	4.51	5.56
15	GB	4.31	−0.13	4.28	5.10	4.59	4.00	4.05	4.35	3.77
16	JAX	4.34	−0.45	6.37	4.41	4.12	4.36	4.97	3.91	2.23
17	NYJ	4.40	−0.01	5.61	4.74	2.69	3.63	3.42	6.96	3.75
18	TB	4.43	+0.02	4.68	3.82	5.04	3.73	4.28	5.24	4.19
19	CIN	4.49	−0.09	5.88	4.12	3.03	4.13	5.22	6.13	2.94
20	LAC	4.50	−0.17	5.30	4.79	4.73	4.34	4.23	3.16	4.96
21	CAR	4.56	−0.14	4.76	4.98	4.29	3.93	6.57	3.94	3.42
22	IND	4.57	+0.02	4.27	5.32	4.60	3.70	4.93	3.81	5.39
23	TEN	4.59	−0.05	5.66	3.79	4.29	3.49	5.68	5.81	3.42
24	MIA	4.81	+0.51	3.85	3.78	4.31	4.74	3.83	5.61	7.59
25	LV	4.82	+0.22	4.79	4.75	4.20	3.72	5.13	4.35	6.83
26	CLE	4.89	+0.10	5.26	4.98	3.84	4.28	5.08	5.11	5.68
27	ATL	4.98	−0.10	5.41	5.32	4.62	4.36	5.86	5.06	4.27
28	CHI	5.00	−0.14	5.11	6.46	4.54	4.99	3.36	5.95	4.58
29	DET	5.24	−0.10	6.79	5.66	4.59	4.74	2.93	5.53	6.48
30	DAL	5.36	+0.28	6.55	3.89	4.15	4.09	5.44	6.24	7.14
31	WAS	5.65	+0.39	3.95	5.65	5.05	6.49	4.96	6.09	7.37
32	ARI	5.74	+0.55	4.55	5.31	4.87	6.30	3.70	5.41	10.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	3.97	2.25	3.66	3.24	4.81	4.05	6.40
LAR	3.10	2.71	4.13	3.93	5.33	4.38	5.37
NO	4.98	3.37	3.15	3.91	3.19	5.08	5.16
SEA	3.39	3.63	4.19	3.58	4.55	3.31	5.19
MIA	3.85	3.78	4.31	4.74	3.83	5.61	7.59
TEN	5.66	3.79	4.29	3.49	5.68	5.81	3.42
TB	4.68	3.82	5.04	3.73	4.28	5.24	4.19
NE	4.44	3.89	4.67	3.28	5.04	4.72	3.68
DAL	6.55	3.89	4.15	4.09	5.44	6.24	7.14
DEN	3.69	3.89	3.29	5.04	3.61	3.03	4.24
CIN	5.88	4.12	3.03	4.13	5.22	6.13	2.94
PIT	4.16	4.25	5.33	3.99	3.90	4.85	3.16
KC	5.17	4.40	5.31	3.42	4.21	3.52	2.68
JAX	6.37	4.41	4.12	4.36	4.97	3.91	2.23
NYG	3.80	4.41	3.69	3.61	4.55	4.51	5.56
SF	4.64	4.55	3.36	3.19	4.81	4.94	2.87
MIN	5.49	4.59	3.69	3.80	3.73	3.35	1.92
PHI	5.08	4.72	3.93	5.34	4.01	2.56	3.35
NYJ	5.61	4.74	2.69	3.63	3.42	6.96	3.75
LV	4.79	4.75	4.20	3.72	5.13	4.35	6.83
LAC	5.30	4.79	4.73	4.34	4.23	3.16	4.96
HOU	5.49	4.92	2.87	2.98	5.57	3.68	3.37
BAL	3.67	4.94	3.36	2.81	4.27	3.65	2.89
CAR	4.76	4.98	4.29	3.93	6.57	3.94	3.42
CLE	5.26	4.98	3.84	4.28	5.08	5.11	5.68
GB	4.28	5.10	4.59	4.00	4.05	4.35	3.77
ARI	4.55	5.31	4.87	6.30	3.70	5.41	10.00
ATL	5.41	5.32	4.62	4.36	5.86	5.06	4.27
IND	4.27	5.32	4.60	3.70	4.93	3.81	5.39
WAS	3.95	5.65	5.05	6.49	4.96	6.09	7.37
DET	6.79	5.66	4.59	4.74	2.93	5.53	6.48
CHI	5.11	6.46	4.54	4.99	3.36	5.95	4.58

Pass td perc (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (2.96), 2019 Patriots (2.43), 2020 Rams (3.10), 2021 Bills (2.25).

The best season on record is Bills 2021 at 2.25; the worst Raiders 2018 at 7.47.

The league average has fallen from 4.79 in 2018 to 4.48 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_passing_pass_td_perc
Side: defensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.