NFL Lines Week 6 Picks, Odds & Spreads
NFL Week 6 Picks
A note about week 6. There have been several games which have seen a large drop in the O/U total from opening line to the Tuesday line. Sharps may be playing unders based on early weather reports of bad weather or significant injuries in certain games. There were 4 games showing large 3 – 5 point drops on the points total lines. Please factor this in to any Algorithm picks you use.
One new feature is the Flipped Pick note at the end of each game capsule. If the Algorithm would have flipped its pick based on the Tues line as opposed to the opening line, that flipped pick is noted. Because the Algorithm is calculating lines and totals very close to the Vegas line in most case, swings in the line can easily reverse a pick by the Algorithm.
Please remember, the Algorithm picks and all the info here are just tools based entirely on statistics. You must still use your handicapping and football knowledge to factor in injuries, weather, and non statistical info into your final picks and wagers. The Algorithm only knows what happened on the field statistically, it is blind to everything else.
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs Broncos |
-10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) |
o47.5 (-110) u47.5 (-110) |
-590 +430 |
- Opening point spread: Chiefs -10.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 51.5 points scored
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime)
- Calculated Line: CHIEFS -13.87
- Opening Line Error: 3.37
- Tues Line Error: 3.37
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 55.89
- Opening Over/Under Error: 4.39
- Tues Over/Under Error: 8.39
ALORITHM PICK: CHIEFS OVER
Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans vs Ravens |
+4 (-110) -4 (-110) |
o40.5 (-115) u40.5 (-105) |
+166 -198 |
- Opening point spread: Ravens -4.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 41 points scored
- Time: 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday (NFL Network)
- Calculated Line: RAVENS -5.44
- Opening Line Error: 0.94
- Tues Line Error: 1.44
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 43.89
- Opening Over/Under Error: 2.89
- Tues Over/Under Error: 3.39
ALORITHM PICK: RAVENS OVER
San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs 49ers |
+5.5 (-110) -5.5 (-110) |
o37.5 (-110) u37.5 (-110) |
+210 -255 |
- Opening point spread: 49ers -3
- Opening total: Over/Under 41.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: 49ERS -5.61
- Opening Line Error: 2.61
- Tues Line Error: 0.11
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 41.72
- Opening Over/Under Error: 0.22
- Tues Over/Under Error: 4.22
ALORITHM PICK: 49ERS*** OVER
The Thursday night game showed a huge drop in the O/U Sun(51.5) to Tues(47.5) and came in way under the total. If you believe in large line movements as indicators, you have one here and an example from Thursday to point to.
***The spread has jumped to 49ers -9.5 after news D Watson will not play for the Browns. In this case the Algorithm would switch its pick to BROWNS +9.5 as it is nearly a 4 point overlay vs the calculated line.
Seattle Seahawks vs Cincinnati Bengals Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals vs Seahawks |
-2.5 (-120) +2.5 (-102) |
o44.5 (-110) u44.5 (-110) |
-146 +124 |
- Opening point spread: Bengals -3
- Opening total: Over/Under 46 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: BENGALS -0.32
- Opening Line Error: 2.18
- Tues Line Error: 2.18
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 42.13
- Opening Over/Under Error: 3.87
- Tues Over/Under Error: 2.37
ALORITHM PICK: SEAHWKS UNDER
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars vs Colts |
-4.0 (-105) +4.0 (-115) |
o46.5 (-110) u46.5 (-110) |
-205 +172 |
- Opening point spread: Jaguars -4.0
- Opening total: Over/Under 46 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: JAGUARS -4.12
- Opening Line Error: 0.12
- Tues Line Error: 0.12
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 45.54
- Opening Over/Under Error: 0.96
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.04
ALORITHM PICK: JAGAURS UNDER
This line is so close on both the spread and total it could waver all the way to game time.
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears vs Vikings |
+2.5 (-105) -2.5 (-115) |
o44.5 (-115) u44.5 (-105) |
+124 -146 |
- Opening point spread: Vikings -3.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 49.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: VIKINGS -0.80
- Opening Line Error: 2.70
- Tues Line Error: 1.70
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 53.20
- Opening Over/Under Error: 3.70
- Tues Over/Under Error: 8.70
ALORITHM PICK: BEARS OVER
The Thursday night game showed a huge drop in the O/U Sun(51.5) to Tues(47.5) and came in way under the total. If you believe in large line movements as indicators, you have one here and an example from Thursday to point to.
Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins vs Panthers |
-13.5 (-115) +13.5 (-105) |
o48.5 (-115) u48.5 (-105) |
-900 +610 |
- Opening point spread: Dolphins -10.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 46 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: DOLPHINS -13.15
- Opening Line Error: 2.65
- Tues Line Error: 0.35
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 53.72
- Opening Over/Under Error: 7.72
- Tues Over/Under Error: 5.22
ALORITHM PICK: DOLPHINS OVER
Tues Flipped Pick: PANTHERS OVER
This line pick flipped by 0.35 points. The key number is Dolphins -13. If -13 or under, Dolphins. At 13.5 or over, Panthers.
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons vs Commanders |
-2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) |
o42 (-110) u42 (-110) |
-138 +118 |
- Opening point spread: Falcons -2.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: FALCONS -4.82
- Opening Line Error: 2.32
- Tues Line Error: 2.32
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.76
- Opening Over/Under Error: 4.76
- Tues Over/Under Error: 4.76
ALORITHM PICK: FALCONS OVER
New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans vs Saints |
+1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110) |
o42.5 (-110) u42.5 (-110) |
+106 -124 |
- Opening point spread: Saints -2.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 41 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: TEXANS -1.5
- Opening Line Error: 4.00
- Tues Line Error: 3.00
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 43.26
- Opening Over/Under Error: 2.26
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.76
ALORITHM PICK: TEXANS OVER
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders vs Patriots |
-3.5 (-104) +3.5 (-118) |
o41.5 (-110) u41.5 (-110) |
-168 +142 |
- Opening point spread: Raiders -1.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: RAIDERS -4.52
- Opening Line Error: 3.02
- Tues Line Error: 1.02
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 41.04
- Opening Over/Under Error: 0.96
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.46
ALORITHM PICK: RAIDERS UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Jets Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets vs Eagles |
+7 (-110) -7 (-110) |
o42 (-105) u42 (-115) |
+265 -330 |
- Opening point spread: Eagles -6.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: EAGLES -2.42
- Opening Line Error: 4.08
- Tues Line Error: 4.58
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 48.17
- Opening Over/Under Error: 6.17
- Tues Over/Under Error: 6.17
ALORITHM PICK: JETS OVER
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers vs Lions |
+3 (-102) -3 (-120) |
o43.5 (-110) u43.5 (-110) |
+140 -166 |
- Opening point spread: Lions -3 (-120)
- Opening total: Over/Under 45.5 points scored
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: BUCS -0.66
- Opening Line Error: 3.66
- Tues Line Error: 3.66
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 47.11
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.61
- Tues Over/Under Error: 3.61
ALORITHM PICK: BUCS OVER
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams vs Cardinals |
-7 (-110) +7 (-110) |
o48.5 (-110) u48.5 (-110) |
-330 +265 |
- Opening point spread: Rams -4.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 46 points scored
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: RAMS -6.92
- Opening Line Error: 2.42
- Tues Line Error: 0.08
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 54.10
- Opening Over/Under Error: 8.10
- Tues Over/Under Error: 5.60
ALORITHM PICK: RAMS OVER
Tues Flipped Pick: CARDINALS OVER
This has flipped on the line by 0.08 points. The calculated line is RAMS – 6.92. So rounding up it is RAMS -7, but technically the Algorithm would flip the pick over the 0.08 point difference.
New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills vs Giants |
-14 (-110) +14 (-110) |
o44.5 (-115) u44.5 (-105) |
-900 +610 |
- Opening point spread: Bills -12.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 48 points scored
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
- Calculated Line: BILLS -18.20
- Opening Line Error: 5.70
- Tues Line Error: 4.20
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 47.46
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.46
- Tues Over/Under Error: 2.96
ALORITHM PICK: BILLS UNDER
Flipped Pick – BILLS OVER
The 47.46 total was under the opening total of 48, but the over/under is now down to 44.5 meaning the O/U pick flipped. The Thursday night game showed a huge drop in the O/U Sun(51.5) to Tues(47.5) and came in way under the total. If you believe in large line movements as indicators, you have one here and an example from Thursday to point to.
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers vs Cowboys |
+2.5 (-115) -2.5 (-105) |
o50.5 (-110) u50.5 (-110) |
+108 -126 |
- Opening point spread: Cowboys -2.5 (even)
- Opening total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ABC/ESPN)
- Calculated Line: COWBOYS -5.88
- Opening Line Error: 3.38
- Tues Line Error: 3.38
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 48.64
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.14
- Tues Over/Under Error: 1.86
ALORITHM PICK: COWBOYS OVER
Tues Flipped Pick: COWBOYS UNDER
The algorithm places the toal at 48.64, or 48.5. That over/under is dead middle of the opening and current point total. Here is another fairly large drop on the total(-3) Sun to Tues.
