NFL 2024 – WEEK 18 Games, Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

NFL 2024 – WEEK 18 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

The Algorithm had a .500 week going 8 – 8 in week 17.  This brings the season record to 127 – 123 – 6.

For week 18, teams that are resting starters had 2.5 points deducted from their base ratings.  If a home team is resting its starters, it also forfeits the 2.5 home field advantage modifier.  Philadelphia & LA Rams are both at home resting starters so their power ratings are -5 points.  Buffalo & Kansas City are on the road, so their power ratings are -2.5 points.

This is an extremely difficult week to handicap with the teams who have nothing to play for vs teams resting starters or playing for seeding/playoffs.  Be careful if you wager.

The Algorithm is just over .500 for the year.  This may not sound impressive, but this year has been a year in which favorites have won an unusually high % of games.  On the season Favorites are 188 – 68 straight up, and 150 – 101 – 5 ATS.  Meanwhile Home teams are 120 -126 -5 ATS and just 131 – 120 straight up(this discounts the international games as home games for the team listed as such).

The average bettor tends to back favorites, so this has been a great year for them.  Vegas and the sharps prefer underdogs, so it has been a terrible year for most pro bettors and Vegas has been taking it on the chin since October(September had a large number of underdsogs win).

What does all this mean?  Basically that the Algorithm is closer to Vegas and the sharps than it is to the betting public.  Barring a huge winning week 18, the Algorithm will most likely finish in the 50.5% range.  This would result in a small loss if you bet every single game as the Algorithm is forced to.  It didn’t take the beating the sharps took,but it won’t be profitable like a person who simply bet favorites every week.

Best of luck in week 18!  Enjoy the games.

NFL Week 17 vs. Spread

Favorites 12 – 4
Season 150 – 101 – 5

Home 9 – 7
Season 120 – 126 – 5

Neutal Games – 5 (Team Listed Home is 4 – 1)

NFL Week 17 Straight Up

Favorites 14 – 2
Season 188 – 68

Home 8 – 8
Season 131 – 120

Neutal Games – 5 (Favorite is 3 -2)

NFL 2024 Week 17 Spread Results

2024 Algorithm Record: 127 – 123 – 6