What Rush 1stD is

Rushing first downs: first downs earned on running plays. The running game's contribution to keeping drives alive.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Bills led at 9.53; the league average was 6.61.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

BUF · 9.53

League average

6.61

Best to worst

4.94

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	9.53	17
2	PHI	9	17
3	SF	8.71	17
4	BAL	8.65	17
5	CHI	8.12	17
6	ARI	7.65	17
7	DET	7.41	17
8	ATL	7.18	17
9	CLE	7.18	17
10	DEN	6.94	17
11	LAR	6.94	17
12	MIA	6.94	17
13	DAL	6.88	17
14	NO	6.88	17
15	IND	6.76	17
16	PIT	6.76	17
17	CAR	6.59	17
18	KC	6.53	17
19	TEN	6.41	17
20	GB	6.12	17
21	WAS	5.94	17
22	JAX	5.88	17
23	NYG	5.88	17
24	SEA	5.82	17
25	NE	5.47	17
26	LAC	5.41	17
27	CIN	5.35	17
28	HOU	5.12	17
29	LV	5.06	17
30	MIN	5	17
31	TB	4.76	17
32	NYJ	4.59	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 9.53

League laggard

NYJ · 4.59

League average

6.61

Spread (max − min)

4.94

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	9.53	2.92	100%
2	PHI	9	2.39	96.8%
3	SF	8.71	2.10	93.5%
4	BAL	8.65	2.04	90.3%
5	CHI	8.12	1.51	87.1%
6	ARI	7.65	1.04	83.9%
7	DET	7.41	0.80	80.6%
8	ATL	7.18	0.57	77.4%
9	CLE	7.18	0.57	74.2%
10	DEN	6.94	0.33	71%
11	LAR	6.94	0.33	67.7%
12	MIA	6.94	0.33	64.5%
13	DAL	6.88	0.27	61.3%
14	NO	6.88	0.27	58.1%
15	IND	6.76	0.16	54.8%
16	PIT	6.76	0.16	51.6%
17	CAR	6.59	-0.02	48.4%
18	KC	6.53	-0.08	45.2%
19	TEN	6.41	-0.20	41.9%
20	GB	6.12	-0.49	38.7%
21	WAS	5.94	-0.67	35.5%
22	JAX	5.88	-0.73	32.3%
23	NYG	5.88	-0.73	29%
24	SEA	5.82	-0.78	25.8%
25	NE	5.47	-1.14	22.6%
26	LAC	5.41	-1.20	19.4%
27	CIN	5.35	-1.26	16.1%
28	HOU	5.12	-1.49	12.9%
29	LV	5.06	-1.55	9.7%
30	MIN	5	-1.61	6.5%
31	TB	4.76	-1.84	3.2%
32	NYJ	4.59	-2.02	0%

Does Rush 1stD matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 838–740–37 ATS (53.1%) across 2020–2025, #131 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2025 (148–121, 55.0%); its worst 2021 (137–133, 50.7%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	136–118–2	53.5%
2021	272	137–133–2	50.7%
2022	271	145–119–7	54.9%
2023	272	132–126–14	51.2%
2024	272	140–123–9	53.2%
2025	272	148–121–3	55.0%

Rush 1stD in 2023 vs 2022

Bills lead at 9.53 — they ranked #7 last year. Jets are last at 4.59 — #31 last year.

The league average is 6.61, down 0.36 from 6.97 last year.

Biggest riser: Rams, #29 → #11. Biggest faller: Giants, #5 → #23.

Spread between first and last: 4.94; 21 teams are within 1.24 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LAR · +1.59

Biggest faller

NYG · −3.18

Most consistent

TB · +0.06

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -0.36

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	LAR	6.94	5.35	+1.59
2	BUF	9.53	8.06	+1.47
3	MIA	6.94	5.53	+1.41
4	IND	6.76	5.65	+1.12
5	SF	8.71	7.82	+0.88
6	NO	6.88	6.06	+0.82
7	ARI	7.65	6.88	+0.76
8	DEN	6.94	6.35	+0.59
9	DET	7.41	6.94	+0.47
10	KC	6.53	6.29	+0.24
11	TEN	6.41	6.18	+0.24
12	TB	4.76	4.71	+0.06
13	HOU	5.12	5.29	−0.18
14	NYJ	4.59	4.94	−0.35
15	LAC	5.41	5.94	−0.53
16	SEA	5.82	6.35	−0.53
17	NE	5.47	6.06	−0.59
18	PHI	9	9.65	−0.65
19	CAR	6.59	7.24	−0.65
20	MIN	5	5.65	−0.65
21	DAL	6.88	7.59	−0.71
22	CIN	5.35	6.19	−0.83
23	JAX	5.88	6.76	−0.88
24	CHI	8.12	9.06	−0.94
25	GB	6.12	7.12	−1
26	PIT	6.76	7.76	−1
27	CLE	7.18	8.41	−1.24
28	BAL	8.65	10	−1.35
29	WAS	5.94	7.41	−1.47
30	ATL	7.18	9.29	−2.12
31	LV	5.06	7.35	−2.29
32	NYG	5.88	9.06	−3.18

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BAL · 9.50

Multi-year laggard

HOU · 5.41

Biggest improver

ATL · +0.57/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −0.63/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BAL	9.50	−0.24	10.63	9.59	10	8.65	9.94	8.71	9
2	BUF	8.83	+0.46	7.63	8.06	8.06	9.53	8.41	8.71	11.40
3	PHI	8.16	−0.49	7.25	9.82	9.65	9	10	7	4.40
4	CHI	7.67	+0.32	5.88	7.24	9.06	8.12	5.82	8.59	9
5	IND	7.60	−0.02	8.19	9.06	5.65	6.76	7.76	7.35	8.40
6	SF	7.58	+0.07	6.44	7.88	7.82	8.71	7.24	7.18	7.80
7	WAS	7.42	+0.11	6.81	7.65	7.41	5.94	9.35	7.35	7.40
8	ATL	7.30	+0.57	5.56	4.53	9.29	7.18	7.88	6.82	9.80
9	NE	7.25	−0.16	9.06	8.35	6.06	5.47	6.18	7.65	8
10	ARI	7.13	−0.47	8.63	7.71	6.88	7.65	8.29	5.53	5.20
11	KC	7.10	+0.14	7.19	7.41	6.29	6.53	6.53	7.24	8.50
12	DET	7.07	+0.30	5.88	6.24	6.94	7.41	8.76	6.29	8
13	CLE	6.97	−0.63	8.44	8.18	8.41	7.18	5.65	5.94	5
14	NYG	6.90	+0.22	5.94	5.53	9.06	5.88	6.29	8.76	6.80
15	NO	6.81	−0.39	9.25	6.76	6.06	6.88	6.65	6.24	5.80
16	DAL	6.79	−0.18	7.44	6.65	7.59	6.88	5.82	7.18	6
17	LAR	6.77	+0.08	7.69	5.94	5.35	6.94	7.12	7.53	6.80
18	CAR	6.67	−0.18	6.88	7.24	7.24	6.59	6.12	6.65	6
19	GB	6.67	−0.26	7.25	6.59	7.12	6.12	8.35	7.47	3.80
20	TEN	6.67	−0.61	9.13	8	6.18	6.41	6.76	5	5.20
21	DEN	6.62	−0.07	6.13	7.35	6.35	6.94	7.35	6.65	5.60
22	LAC	6.45	−0.02	7.06	6.71	5.94	5.41	6.59	7.06	6.40
23	JAX	6.45	+0.40	5.06	5.76	6.76	5.88	6.41	7.47	7.80
24	PIT	6.43	+0.11	5.38	5.29	7.76	6.76	7.65	6.53	5.60
25	SEA	6.40	−0.11	7.31	6.53	6.35	5.82	5.24	7.76	5.80
26	MIN	6.25	−0.31	8.75	6.29	5.65	5	6.12	6.12	5.80
27	TB	6.20	+0.36	5.25	6.41	4.71	4.76	8.29	7	7
28	MIA	6.11	+0.11	6.44	5.29	5.53	6.94	5.53	6.24	6.80
29	CIN	5.82	+0.00	5.88	5.82	6.19	5.35	5.35	6.12	6
30	NYJ	5.62	+0.19	6	5.24	4.94	4.59	5	7	6.60
31	LV	5.54	−0.57	7.69	5.71	7.35	5.06	4.59	4	4.40
32	HOU	5.41	+0.16	5.44	4.59	5.29	5.12	5.41	6.24	5.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	7.63	8.06	8.06	9.53	8.41	8.71	11.40
PHI	7.25	9.82	9.65	9	10	7	4.40
SF	6.44	7.88	7.82	8.71	7.24	7.18	7.80
BAL	10.63	9.59	10	8.65	9.94	8.71	9
CHI	5.88	7.24	9.06	8.12	5.82	8.59	9
ARI	8.63	7.71	6.88	7.65	8.29	5.53	5.20
DET	5.88	6.24	6.94	7.41	8.76	6.29	8
ATL	5.56	4.53	9.29	7.18	7.88	6.82	9.80
CLE	8.44	8.18	8.41	7.18	5.65	5.94	5
DEN	6.13	7.35	6.35	6.94	7.35	6.65	5.60
LAR	7.69	5.94	5.35	6.94	7.12	7.53	6.80
MIA	6.44	5.29	5.53	6.94	5.53	6.24	6.80
DAL	7.44	6.65	7.59	6.88	5.82	7.18	6
NO	9.25	6.76	6.06	6.88	6.65	6.24	5.80
IND	8.19	9.06	5.65	6.76	7.76	7.35	8.40
PIT	5.38	5.29	7.76	6.76	7.65	6.53	5.60
CAR	6.88	7.24	7.24	6.59	6.12	6.65	6
KC	7.19	7.41	6.29	6.53	6.53	7.24	8.50
TEN	9.13	8	6.18	6.41	6.76	5	5.20
GB	7.25	6.59	7.12	6.12	8.35	7.47	3.80
WAS	6.81	7.65	7.41	5.94	9.35	7.35	7.40
JAX	5.06	5.76	6.76	5.88	6.41	7.47	7.80
NYG	5.94	5.53	9.06	5.88	6.29	8.76	6.80
SEA	7.31	6.53	6.35	5.82	5.24	7.76	5.80
NE	9.06	8.35	6.06	5.47	6.18	7.65	8
LAC	7.06	6.71	5.94	5.41	6.59	7.06	6.40
CIN	5.88	5.82	6.19	5.35	5.35	6.12	6
HOU	5.44	4.59	5.29	5.12	5.41	6.24	5.80
LV	7.69	5.71	7.35	5.06	4.59	4	4.40
MIN	8.75	6.29	5.65	5	6.12	6.12	5.80
TB	5.25	6.41	4.71	4.76	8.29	7	7
NYJ	6	5.24	4.94	4.59	5	7	6.60

Rush 1stD since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Ravens (9.75), 2019 Ravens (12.06), 2020 Ravens (10.63), 2021 Eagles (9.82), 2022 Ravens (10), 2023 Bills (9.53).

Ravens have led this stat 4 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 12.06; the worst Jets 2019 at 3.88.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_rush_fd
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.