Buffalo Bills — Third down success, 2026

Value5.40
Rank#11 of 32
League average5.13
Rank in 2025#8 of 32

Buffalo Bills — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Third down success is

Third downs converted into a new set of downs. The count behind the rate.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the Bengals lead at 6.80; the league average is 5.13.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

CIN · 6.80

League average

5.13

Best to worst

3.60

All 32 teams, higher is better.

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CIN · 6.80

League laggard

GB · 3.20

League average

5.13

Spread (max − min)

3.60

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CIN	6.80	1.67	100%
2	NO	6.60	1.47	96.8%
3	CHI	6.20	1.07	93.5%
4	MIN	6.20	1.07	90.3%
5	NYG	6.20	1.07	87.1%
6	ARI	6	0.87	83.9%
7	DAL	6	0.87	80.6%
8	LAR	6	0.87	77.4%
9	JAX	5.60	0.47	74.2%
10	KC	5.50	0.37	71%
11	BUF	5.40	0.27	67.7%
12	LV	5.40	0.27	64.5%
13	MIA	5.40	0.27	61.3%
14	SF	5.40	0.27	58.1%
15	TB	5.40	0.27	54.8%
16	NE	5.20	0.07	51.6%
17	ATL	5	-0.13	48.4%
18	HOU	5	-0.13	45.2%
19	IND	5	-0.13	41.9%
20	LAC	5	-0.13	38.7%
21	NYJ	5	-0.13	35.5%
22	PHI	5	-0.13	32.3%
23	CAR	4.75	-0.38	29%
24	DEN	4.40	-0.73	25.8%
25	DET	4.40	-0.73	22.6%
26	WAS	4.40	-0.73	19.4%
27	PIT	4.20	-0.93	16.1%
28	TEN	4.20	-0.93	12.9%
29	BAL	4	-1.13	9.7%
30	CLE	3.80	-1.33	6.5%
31	SEA	3.60	-1.53	3.2%
32	GB	3.20	-1.93	0%

Does Third down success matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 850–728–37 ATS (53.9%) across 2020–2025, #105 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (155–109, 58.7%); its worst 2025 (134–135, 49.8%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	137–133–2	50.7%
2022	271	155–109–7	58.7%
2023	272	137–121–14	53.1%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	134–135–3	49.8%

Third down success in 2026 vs 2025

Bengals lead at 6.80 — they ranked #6 last year. Packers are last at 3.20 — #3 last year.

The league average is 5.13, up 0.11 from 5.02 last year.

Biggest riser: Vikings, #32 → #4. Biggest faller: Packers, #3 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 3.60; 21 teams are within 0.87 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIN · +2.55

Biggest faller

GB · −2.68

Most consistent

IND · +0.12

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▲ 0.11

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	MIN	6.20	3.65	+2.55
2	LAR	6	4.47	+1.53
3	NO	6.60	5.18	+1.42
4	MIA	5.40	4	+1.40
5	LV	5.40	4.29	+1.11
6	CIN	6.80	5.71	+1.09
7	NYG	6.20	5.29	+0.91
8	ATL	5	4.12	+0.88
9	DAL	6	5.18	+0.82
10	KC	5.50	4.82	+0.68
11	JAX	5.60	5	+0.60
12	CHI	6.20	5.71	+0.49
13	ARI	6	5.59	+0.41
14	CAR	4.75	4.35	+0.40
15	PHI	5	4.65	+0.35
16	NYJ	5	4.71	+0.29
17	WAS	4.40	4.18	+0.22
18	NE	5.20	5	+0.20
19	IND	5	4.88	+0.12
20	HOU	5	5.12	−0.12
21	TEN	4.20	4.35	−0.15
22	BUF	5.40	5.59	−0.19
23	TB	5.40	5.59	−0.19
24	DET	4.40	4.88	−0.48
25	SF	5.40	6.24	−0.84
26	PIT	4.20	5.06	−0.86
27	BAL	4	4.88	−0.88
28	CLE	3.80	4.76	−0.96
29	DEN	4.40	5.82	−1.42
30	SEA	3.60	5.06	−1.46
31	LAC	5	6.76	−1.76
32	GB	3.20	5.88	−2.68

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

LAC · 5.90

Multi-year laggard

SEA · 4.49

Biggest improver

CIN · +0.26/yr

Biggest decliner

PIT · −0.27/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	LAC	5.90	−0.12	6.19	5.88	6.82	5.35	5.29	6.76	5
2	BUF	5.83	−0.12	5.81	6.18	6.06	6.53	5.24	5.59	5.40
3	KC	5.78	−0.13	6	6.35	5.53	5.71	6.53	4.82	5.50
4	DAL	5.77	−0.04	5.50	5.82	6.18	6.76	4.94	5.18	6
5	TB	5.76	−0.00	5.38	6.18	5.47	5.82	6.47	5.59	5.40
6	PHI	5.59	−0.11	5.13	5.94	6.06	6.35	6	4.65	5
7	CIN	5.58	+0.26	4.81	5	6.06	4.82	5.88	5.71	6.80
8	ARI	5.37	+0.08	5.06	6	4.82	5.18	4.94	5.59	6
9	PIT	5.37	−0.27	6.06	5.59	6.24	5	5.41	5.06	4.20
10	NO	5.36	+0.08	5.88	4.65	5.35	5.41	4.47	5.18	6.60
11	SF	5.28	+0.13	4.94	4.82	5.59	5.06	4.94	6.24	5.40
12	LAR	5.26	−0.09	6.13	5.29	4.88	5.71	4.35	4.47	6
13	CHI	5.21	+0.24	4.44	4.47	5.41	5.76	4.47	5.71	6.20
14	BAL	5.15	−0.25	6.38	4.82	5.41	5.12	5.41	4.88	4
15	HOU	5.06	−0.03	5.31	5.65	3.94	5.24	5.18	5.12	5
16	JAX	5.04	+0.04	5.25	4.53	5.29	5.12	4.47	5	5.60
17	GB	5.02	−0.21	5.56	5.18	4.71	6.18	4.47	5.88	3.20
18	NYG	5.02	+0.20	4.56	5.06	4.65	4.53	4.88	5.29	6.20
19	ATL	5.02	−0.18	6.13	4.88	4.82	5.35	4.82	4.12	5
20	DET	5.01	+0.01	4.94	4.35	5.12	5.59	5.82	4.88	4.40
21	MIN	4.99	+0.05	4.63	5	5.47	5.18	4.82	3.65	6.20
22	WAS	4.94	−0.16	5.56	5.18	4.82	4.59	5.88	4.18	4.40
23	DEN	4.92	+0.03	5.13	4.94	4	4.76	5.35	5.82	4.40
24	IND	4.90	+0.00	4.94	5.12	4.53	4.94	4.88	4.88	5
25	LV	4.89	−0.06	5.69	4.59	5	4.65	4.65	4.29	5.40
26	MIA	4.81	−0.05	4.88	5.65	4.18	5.06	4.53	4	5.40
27	TEN	4.81	−0.23	5.25	6.06	4.76	4.29	4.76	4.35	4.20
28	NE	4.77	+0.01	4.81	5.41	4.47	4	4.53	5	5.20
29	CLE	4.75	−0.24	5.63	4.94	5.18	4.76	4.18	4.76	3.80
30	CAR	4.60	−0.03	4.88	4.94	3.82	5	4.47	4.35	4.75
31	NYJ	4.59	+0.08	4.38	4.59	4.88	3.65	4.94	4.71	5
32	SEA	4.49	−0.08	4.88	4.29	4.47	4.47	4.65	5.06	3.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CIN	4.81	5	6.06	4.82	5.88	5.71	6.80
NO	5.88	4.65	5.35	5.41	4.47	5.18	6.60
CHI	4.44	4.47	5.41	5.76	4.47	5.71	6.20
MIN	4.63	5	5.47	5.18	4.82	3.65	6.20
NYG	4.56	5.06	4.65	4.53	4.88	5.29	6.20
ARI	5.06	6	4.82	5.18	4.94	5.59	6
DAL	5.50	5.82	6.18	6.76	4.94	5.18	6
LAR	6.13	5.29	4.88	5.71	4.35	4.47	6
JAX	5.25	4.53	5.29	5.12	4.47	5	5.60
KC	6	6.35	5.53	5.71	6.53	4.82	5.50
BUF	5.81	6.18	6.06	6.53	5.24	5.59	5.40
LV	5.69	4.59	5	4.65	4.65	4.29	5.40
MIA	4.88	5.65	4.18	5.06	4.53	4	5.40
SF	4.94	4.82	5.59	5.06	4.94	6.24	5.40
TB	5.38	6.18	5.47	5.82	6.47	5.59	5.40
NE	4.81	5.41	4.47	4	4.53	5	5.20
ATL	6.13	4.88	4.82	5.35	4.82	4.12	5
HOU	5.31	5.65	3.94	5.24	5.18	5.12	5
IND	4.94	5.12	4.53	4.94	4.88	4.88	5
LAC	6.19	5.88	6.82	5.35	5.29	6.76	5
NYJ	4.38	4.59	4.88	3.65	4.94	4.71	5
PHI	5.13	5.94	6.06	6.35	6	4.65	5
CAR	4.88	4.94	3.82	5	4.47	4.35	4.75
DEN	5.13	4.94	4	4.76	5.35	5.82	4.40
DET	4.94	4.35	5.12	5.59	5.82	4.88	4.40
WAS	5.56	5.18	4.82	4.59	5.88	4.18	4.40
PIT	6.06	5.59	6.24	5	5.41	5.06	4.20
TEN	5.25	6.06	4.76	4.29	4.76	4.35	4.20
BAL	6.38	4.82	5.41	5.12	5.41	4.88	4
CLE	5.63	4.94	5.18	4.76	4.18	4.76	3.80
SEA	4.88	4.29	4.47	4.47	4.65	5.06	3.60
GB	5.56	5.18	4.71	6.18	4.47	5.88	3.20

Third down success since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (6.56), 2019 Eagles (6.50), 2020 Ravens (6.38), 2021 Chiefs (6.35), 2022 Chargers (6.82), 2023 Cowboys (6.76), 2024 Chiefs (6.53), 2025 Chargers (6.76), 2026 Bengals (6.80).

Chiefs have led this stat 2 of 9 seasons.

The best season on record is Chargers 2022 at 6.82; the worst Packers 2026 at 3.20.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_success
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.