What Red zone scores is

Red-zone touchdowns: trips inside the 20 that ended in a touchdown. The count behind the rate.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 2.82; the league average was 1.88.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 2.82

League average

1.88

Best to worst

2.82

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	2.82	17
2	LAC	2.76	17
3	TB	2.71	17
4	GB	2.59	17
5	DAL	2.41	17
6	KC	2.41	17
7	NE	2.41	17
8	ARI	2.35	17
9	TEN	2.29	17
10	PHI	2.24	17
11	SF	2.18	17
12	IND	2.12	17
13	BAL	2	17
14	MIN	2	17
15	NO	1.94	17
16	CIN	1.88	17
17	CLE	1.88	17
18	LV	1.82	17
19	SEA	1.82	17
20	MIA	1.76	17
21	ATL	1.71	17
22	DEN	1.71	17
23	NYJ	1.65	17
24	WAS	1.65	17
25	PIT	1.59	17
26	CAR	1.53	17
27	CHI	1.41	17
28	DET	1.29	17
29	JAX	1.18	17
30	HOU	1.06	17
31	NYG	1	17
32	LAR	0	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 2.82

League laggard

LAR · 0

League average

1.88

Spread (max − min)

2.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	2.82	0.94	100%
2	LAC	2.76	0.88	96.8%
3	TB	2.71	0.83	93.5%
4	GB	2.59	0.71	90.3%
5	DAL	2.41	0.53	87.1%
6	KC	2.41	0.53	83.9%
7	NE	2.41	0.53	80.6%
8	ARI	2.35	0.47	77.4%
9	TEN	2.29	0.41	74.2%
10	PHI	2.24	0.35	71%
11	SF	2.18	0.30	67.7%
12	IND	2.12	0.24	64.5%
13	BAL	2	0.12	61.3%
14	MIN	2	0.12	58.1%
15	NO	1.94	0.06	54.8%
16	CIN	1.88	0.00	51.6%
17	CLE	1.88	0.00	48.4%
18	LV	1.82	-0.06	45.2%
19	SEA	1.82	-0.06	41.9%
20	MIA	1.76	-0.12	38.7%
21	ATL	1.71	-0.17	35.5%
22	DEN	1.71	-0.17	32.3%
23	NYJ	1.65	-0.23	29%
24	WAS	1.65	-0.23	25.8%
25	PIT	1.59	-0.29	22.6%
26	CAR	1.53	-0.35	19.4%
27	CHI	1.41	-0.47	16.1%
28	DET	1.29	-0.59	12.9%
29	JAX	1.18	-0.70	9.7%
30	HOU	1.06	-0.82	6.5%
31	NYG	1	-0.88	3.2%
32	LAR	0	-1.88	0%

Does Red zone scores matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 885–693–37 ATS (56.1%) across 2020–2025, #38 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (157–107, 59.5%); its worst 2021 (144–126, 53.3%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	146–108–2	57.5%
2021	272	144–126–2	53.3%
2022	271	157–107–7	59.5%
2023	272	148–110–14	57.4%
2024	272	145–118–9	55.1%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Red zone scores in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 2.82 — they ranked #6 last year. Rams are last at 0 — #32 last year.

The league average is 1.88, down 0.19 from 2.07 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #28 → #7. Biggest faller: Lions, #13 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 2.82; 23 teams are within 0.58 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NE · +0.79

Biggest faller

NO · −1.31

Most consistent

LAR · 0

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.19

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	NE	2.41	1.63	+0.79
2	LAC	2.76	2	+0.76
3	DAL	2.41	1.81	+0.60
4	NYJ	1.65	1.06	+0.58
5	PHI	2.24	1.75	+0.49
6	CIN	1.88	1.56	+0.32
7	BUF	2.82	2.56	+0.26
8	TB	2.71	2.63	+0.08
9	DEN	1.71	1.69	+0.02
10	LAR	0	0	0
11	ARI	2.35	2.38	−0.02
12	KC	2.41	2.44	−0.03
13	WAS	1.65	1.69	−0.04
14	IND	2.12	2.19	−0.07
15	SF	2.18	2.31	−0.14
16	NYG	1	1.19	−0.19
17	ATL	1.71	1.94	−0.23
18	LV	1.82	2.06	−0.24
19	CAR	1.53	1.81	−0.28
20	MIA	1.76	2.13	−0.36
21	GB	2.59	3	−0.41
22	BAL	2	2.44	−0.44
23	CHI	1.41	1.94	−0.53
24	PIT	1.59	2.13	−0.54
25	JAX	1.18	1.75	−0.57
26	CLE	1.88	2.50	−0.62
27	HOU	1.06	1.75	−0.69
28	TEN	2.29	3	−0.71
29	SEA	1.82	2.56	−0.74
30	MIN	2	2.75	−0.75
31	DET	1.29	2.25	−0.96
32	NO	1.94	3.25	−1.31

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 2.63

Multi-year laggard

LAR · 0

Biggest improver

DET · +0.22/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −0.28/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	2.63	+0.05	2.56	2.82	2.19	2.41	2.82	2.59	3
2	DET	2.49	+0.22	2.25	1.29	2.59	2.47	3	2.41	3.40
3	KC	2.41	−0.00	2.44	2.41	3	1.94	2.06	2	3
4	SF	2.40	+0.10	2.31	2.18	2	2.65	2.12	2.53	3
5	BAL	2.27	+0.06	2.44	2	1.59	2.47	2.94	1.65	2.80
6	DAL	2.23	+0.07	1.81	2.41	2.47	2.41	1.35	2.18	3
7	GB	2.22	−0.14	3	2.59	1.71	2	2.47	2	1.80
8	PHI	2.02	−0.05	1.75	2.24	2.35	2.12	2.24	1.82	1.60
9	TB	2.01	−0.15	2.63	2.71	1.53	1.29	2.65	1.65	1.60
10	ARI	1.98	−0.03	2.38	2.35	1.47	1.59	1.88	2	2.20
11	NO	1.98	−0.12	3.25	1.94	1.47	1.94	1.47	1.18	2.60
12	CIN	1.97	+0.04	1.56	1.88	2.31	1.82	2.29	2.12	1.80
13	MIN	1.94	−0.20	2.75	2	2.35	1.53	2	1.76	1.20
14	IND	1.93	+0.03	2.19	2.12	1.29	1.65	1.65	2.59	2
15	LAC	1.88	−0.14	2	2.76	2	1.59	1.59	1.65	1.60
16	SEA	1.87	−0.03	2.56	1.82	1.53	1.53	1.53	1.88	2.20
17	MIA	1.80	−0.12	2.13	1.76	1.88	2.29	1.76	1.59	1.20
18	WAS	1.79	+0.03	1.69	1.65	1.53	1.76	2.65	1.88	1.40
19	JAX	1.76	+0.09	1.75	1.18	1.88	1.59	1.59	2.53	1.80
20	DEN	1.74	+0.06	1.69	1.71	1.29	1.65	2.12	1.94	1.80
21	ATL	1.73	−0.01	1.94	1.71	1.76	1.35	1.71	1.82	1.80
22	CAR	1.71	+0.10	1.81	1.53	1.53	1.12	1.82	1.41	2.75
23	TEN	1.70	−0.28	3	2.29	1.53	1.35	1.35	1.18	1.20
24	CHI	1.69	+0.01	1.94	1.41	1.65	1.76	1.35	1.88	1.80
25	NE	1.62	−0.02	1.63	2.41	1.12	1.24	1.24	2.12	1.60
26	LV	1.60	−0.04	2.06	1.82	1.35	1.41	1.29	1.06	2.20
27	PIT	1.58	−0.08	2.13	1.59	1.53	1.18	1.65	1.76	1.20
28	HOU	1.57	+0.07	1.75	1.06	1.29	1.76	1.65	1.47	2
29	CLE	1.57	−0.24	2.50	1.88	1.76	1.59	1.06	1.18	1
30	NYG	1.39	+0.09	1.19	1	1.82	1.12	1.12	1.71	1.80
31	NYJ	1.20	−0.03	1.06	1.65	1.24	0.71	1.76	1	1
32	LAR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	2.56	2.82	2.19	2.41	2.82	2.59	3
LAC	2	2.76	2	1.59	1.59	1.65	1.60
TB	2.63	2.71	1.53	1.29	2.65	1.65	1.60
GB	3	2.59	1.71	2	2.47	2	1.80
DAL	1.81	2.41	2.47	2.41	1.35	2.18	3
KC	2.44	2.41	3	1.94	2.06	2	3
NE	1.63	2.41	1.12	1.24	1.24	2.12	1.60
ARI	2.38	2.35	1.47	1.59	1.88	2	2.20
TEN	3	2.29	1.53	1.35	1.35	1.18	1.20
PHI	1.75	2.24	2.35	2.12	2.24	1.82	1.60
SF	2.31	2.18	2	2.65	2.12	2.53	3
IND	2.19	2.12	1.29	1.65	1.65	2.59	2
BAL	2.44	2	1.59	2.47	2.94	1.65	2.80
MIN	2.75	2	2.35	1.53	2	1.76	1.20
NO	3.25	1.94	1.47	1.94	1.47	1.18	2.60
CIN	1.56	1.88	2.31	1.82	2.29	2.12	1.80
CLE	2.50	1.88	1.76	1.59	1.06	1.18	1
LV	2.06	1.82	1.35	1.41	1.29	1.06	2.20
SEA	2.56	1.82	1.53	1.53	1.53	1.88	2.20
MIA	2.13	1.76	1.88	2.29	1.76	1.59	1.20
ATL	1.94	1.71	1.76	1.35	1.71	1.82	1.80
DEN	1.69	1.71	1.29	1.65	2.12	1.94	1.80
NYJ	1.06	1.65	1.24	0.71	1.76	1	1
WAS	1.69	1.65	1.53	1.76	2.65	1.88	1.40
PIT	2.13	1.59	1.53	1.18	1.65	1.76	1.20
CAR	1.81	1.53	1.53	1.12	1.82	1.41	2.75
CHI	1.94	1.41	1.65	1.76	1.35	1.88	1.80
DET	2.25	1.29	2.59	2.47	3	2.41	3.40
JAX	1.75	1.18	1.88	1.59	1.59	2.53	1.80
HOU	1.75	1.06	1.29	1.76	1.65	1.47	2
NYG	1.19	1	1.82	1.12	1.12	1.71	1.80
LAR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Red zone scores since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (3.19), 2019 Ravens (2.81), 2020 Saints (3.25), 2021 Bills (2.82).

The best season on record is Saints 2020 at 3.25; the worst Rams 2018 at 0.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_red_zone_scores
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.