Offensive: Rushing · Rush EPA
Chicago Bears — Rush EPA, 2026
- Value-0.62
- Rank#14 of 32
- League average-1.57
- Rank in 2025#4 of 32
What Rush EPA is
Rushing EPA: expected points added on running plays — each run valued by how much it changed the chance of scoring, given down, distance and field position. It is usually smaller than passing EPA and often negative league-wide, because the average run loses expected points; a positive number is a genuinely good running game.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
Through Week 6 of 2026, the Bills lead at 4.11; the league average is -1.57.
League snapshot — 2026
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 4.11 | 5 |
| 2 | KC | 3.16 | 4 |
| 3 | IND | 2.67 | 5 |
| 4 | BAL | 1.82 | 5 |
| 5 | ATL | 1.48 | 5 |
| 6 | TB | 0.98 | 5 |
| 7 | PIT | 0.47 | 5 |
| 8 | JAX | 0.29 | 5 |
| 9 | MIA | 0.14 | 5 |
| 10 | SF | -0.11 | 5 |
| 11 | DAL | -0.28 | 5 |
| 12 | DET | -0.45 | 5 |
| 13 | NE | -0.46 | 5 |
| 14 | CHI | -0.62 | 5 |
| 15 | WAS | -0.73 | 5 |
| 16 | ARI | -1.38 | 5 |
| 17 | TEN | -1.44 | 5 |
| 18 | LAR | -1.50 | 5 |
| 19 | NO | -1.90 | 5 |
| 20 | CIN | -1.95 | 5 |
| 21 | CAR | -2.66 | 4 |
| 22 | DEN | -2.70 | 5 |
| 23 | HOU | -3.09 | 5 |
| 24 | PHI | -3.52 | 5 |
| 25 | NYJ | -3.82 | 5 |
| 26 | NYG | -4.28 | 5 |
| 27 | CLE | -4.52 | 5 |
| 28 | MIN | -4.84 | 5 |
| 29 | LAC | -5.30 | 5 |
| 30 | GB | -6.06 | 5 |
| 31 | SEA | -6.68 | 5 |
| 32 | LV | -7.07 | 5 |
At a glance — 2026
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2026
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 4.11 | 5.68 | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 3.16 | 4.73 | 96.8% |
| 3 | IND | 2.67 | 4.24 | 93.5% |
| 4 | BAL | 1.82 | 3.39 | 90.3% |
| 5 | ATL | 1.48 | 3.05 | 87.1% |
| 6 | TB | 0.98 | 2.55 | 83.9% |
| 7 | PIT | 0.47 | 2.04 | 80.6% |
| 8 | JAX | 0.29 | 1.86 | 77.4% |
| 9 | MIA | 0.14 | 1.71 | 74.2% |
| 10 | SF | -0.11 | 1.46 | 71% |
| 11 | DAL | -0.28 | 1.29 | 67.7% |
| 12 | DET | -0.45 | 1.12 | 64.5% |
| 13 | NE | -0.46 | 1.11 | 61.3% |
| 14 | CHI | -0.62 | 0.95 | 58.1% |
| 15 | WAS | -0.73 | 0.84 | 54.8% |
| 16 | ARI | -1.38 | 0.19 | 51.6% |
| 17 | TEN | -1.44 | 0.13 | 48.4% |
| 18 | LAR | -1.50 | 0.07 | 45.2% |
| 19 | NO | -1.90 | -0.33 | 41.9% |
| 20 | CIN | -1.95 | -0.38 | 38.7% |
| 21 | CAR | -2.66 | -1.09 | 35.5% |
| 22 | DEN | -2.70 | -1.13 | 32.3% |
| 23 | HOU | -3.09 | -1.52 | 29% |
| 24 | PHI | -3.52 | -1.95 | 25.8% |
| 25 | NYJ | -3.82 | -2.25 | 22.6% |
| 26 | NYG | -4.28 | -2.71 | 19.4% |
| 27 | CLE | -4.52 | -2.95 | 16.1% |
| 28 | MIN | -4.84 | -3.27 | 12.9% |
| 29 | LAC | -5.30 | -3.73 | 9.7% |
| 30 | GB | -6.06 | -4.49 | 6.5% |
| 31 | SEA | -6.68 | -5.11 | 3.2% |
| 32 | LV | -7.07 | -5.50 | 0% |
Does Rush EPA matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 812–766–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #207 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (138–116, 54.3%); its worst 2021 (128–142, 47.4%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 138–116–2 | 54.3% |
| 2021 | 272 | 128–142–2 | 47.4% |
| 2022 | 271 | 140–124–7 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 272 | 134–124–14 | 51.9% |
| 2024 | 272 | 141–122–9 | 53.6% |
| 2025 | 272 | 131–138–3 | 48.7% |
Rush EPA in 2026 vs 2025
Bills lead at 4.11 — they ranked #2 last year. Raiders are last at -7.07 — #32 last year.
The league average is -1.57, down 0.98 from -0.59 last year.
Biggest riser: Falcons, #22 → #5. Biggest faller: Giants, #5 → #26.
Spread between first and last: 11.19; 21 teams are within 2.79 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2026 vs 2025
| Rank | Team | 2026 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 3.16 | 0.50 | +2.66 |
| 2 | ATL | 1.48 | -1.13 | +2.61 |
| 3 | BUF | 4.11 | 2.43 | +1.69 |
| 4 | NO | -1.90 | -2.95 | +1.06 |
| 5 | DET | -0.45 | -1.45 | +1.00 |
| 6 | SF | -0.11 | -1.09 | +0.97 |
| 7 | TB | 0.98 | 0.05 | +0.93 |
| 8 | MIA | 0.14 | -0.73 | +0.87 |
| 9 | JAX | 0.29 | -0.49 | +0.78 |
| 10 | IND | 2.67 | 2.00 | +0.67 |
| 11 | NE | -0.46 | -0.85 | +0.39 |
| 12 | DAL | -0.28 | -0.55 | +0.27 |
| 13 | PIT | 0.47 | 0.21 | +0.25 |
| 14 | TEN | -1.44 | -1.48 | +0.04 |
| 15 | ARI | -1.38 | -1.27 | −0.12 |
| 16 | HOU | -3.09 | -2.64 | −0.45 |
| 17 | BAL | 1.82 | 2.48 | −0.66 |
| 18 | WAS | -0.73 | 0.28 | −1.01 |
| 19 | LAR | -1.50 | -0.24 | −1.26 |
| 20 | LV | -7.07 | -5.70 | −1.37 |
| 21 | CAR | -2.66 | -1.14 | −1.53 |
| 22 | NYJ | -3.82 | -1.82 | −2.00 |
| 23 | DEN | -2.70 | -0.55 | −2.15 |
| 24 | CIN | -1.95 | 0.41 | −2.37 |
| 25 | CHI | -0.62 | 1.94 | −2.55 |
| 26 | PHI | -3.52 | -0.63 | −2.89 |
| 27 | CLE | -4.52 | -1.30 | −3.22 |
| 28 | MIN | -4.84 | -0.76 | −4.08 |
| 29 | SEA | -6.68 | -2.17 | −4.52 |
| 30 | LAC | -5.30 | -0.37 | −4.93 |
| 31 | NYG | -4.28 | 0.86 | −5.14 |
| 32 | GB | -6.06 | -0.90 | −5.16 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 2.07 | −0.10 | 4.31 | 0.62 | 1.92 | 0.40 | 2.96 | 2.48 | 1.82 |
| 2 | BUF | 1.80 | +0.70 | -1.32 | 1.79 | 0.77 | 2.01 | 2.83 | 2.43 | 4.11 |
| 3 | PHI | 0.68 | −0.53 | -0.62 | 2.53 | 3.08 | 0.61 | 3.29 | -0.63 | -3.52 |
| 4 | KC | 0.68 | +0.27 | -0.06 | 1.14 | 0.90 | -1.07 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 3.16 |
| 5 | CHI | 0.27 | +0.08 | -0.81 | -1.18 | 2.96 | 1.20 | -1.61 | 1.94 | -0.62 |
| 6 | ARI | 0.06 | −0.33 | 1.81 | -0.53 | -0.61 | 1.10 | 1.28 | -1.27 | -1.38 |
| 7 | WAS | 0.04 | +0.22 | -0.17 | -0.87 | -1.71 | -0.51 | 3.98 | 0.28 | -0.73 |
| 8 | IND | -0.25 | +0.48 | -1.15 | 2.31 | -3.89 | -2.42 | -1.25 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| 9 | SF | -0.48 | +0.16 | -1.81 | -0.11 | -1.27 | 1.12 | -0.07 | -1.09 | -0.11 |
| 10 | NE | -0.69 | −0.34 | 1.80 | 0.40 | -1.62 | -2.21 | -1.85 | -0.85 | -0.46 |
| 11 | GB | -0.85 | −0.93 | 1.45 | 0.86 | 0.30 | -1.82 | 0.23 | -0.90 | -6.06 |
| 12 | TEN | -0.95 | −0.61 | 3.00 | 0.05 | -2.26 | -1.58 | -2.96 | -1.48 | -1.44 |
| 13 | CAR | -0.95 | −0.24 | -0.51 | -1.09 | 0.46 | -1.96 | 0.22 | -1.14 | -2.66 |
| 14 | DAL | -1.06 | +0.07 | -1.19 | -1.31 | -0.71 | -0.32 | -3.04 | -0.55 | -0.28 |
| 15 | CLE | -1.08 | −0.75 | -0.43 | 1.57 | 1.44 | -2.82 | -1.52 | -1.30 | -4.52 |
| 16 | JAX | -1.21 | +0.20 | -0.76 | -1.39 | -1.45 | -3.83 | -0.80 | -0.49 | 0.29 |
| 17 | LAR | -1.24 | +0.20 | -2.32 | -2.11 | -0.99 | 0.20 | -1.72 | -0.24 | -1.50 |
| 18 | TB | -1.27 | +0.49 | -1.42 | -0.14 | -5.01 | -4.53 | 1.22 | 0.05 | 0.98 |
| 19 | PIT | -1.28 | +0.44 | -3.75 | -1.19 | 0.33 | -2.17 | -2.84 | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| 20 | ATL | -1.32 | +0.61 | -2.63 | -3.82 | 0.63 | -3.78 | 0.01 | -1.13 | 1.48 |
| 21 | DET | -1.34 | +0.37 | -2.43 | -2.24 | -2.16 | -1.24 | 0.56 | -1.45 | -0.45 |
| 22 | CIN | -1.41 | +0.31 | -2.92 | -2.12 | -1.28 | -1.45 | -0.56 | 0.41 | -1.95 |
| 23 | NYG | -1.51 | −0.24 | -1.27 | -2.06 | 1.79 | -3.89 | -1.70 | 0.86 | -4.28 |
| 24 | SEA | -1.51 | −1.01 | 0.53 | 0.96 | -0.75 | -1.26 | -1.21 | -2.17 | -6.68 |
| 25 | MIA | -1.81 | +0.29 | -2.12 | -3.42 | -0.91 | -0.70 | -4.90 | -0.73 | 0.14 |
| 26 | DEN | -1.82 | +0.12 | -2.35 | -2.02 | -2.19 | -2.05 | -0.84 | -0.55 | -2.70 |
| 27 | NO | -1.82 | −0.21 | 1.20 | -3.05 | -3.06 | -3.07 | 0.07 | -2.95 | -1.90 |
| 28 | MIN | -1.97 | −0.44 | 0.56 | -2.43 | -2.59 | -1.68 | -2.05 | -0.76 | -4.84 |
| 29 | NYJ | -2.25 | −0.21 | -2.66 | -0.64 | -1.31 | -4.12 | -1.41 | -1.82 | -3.82 |
| 30 | LAC | -2.35 | −0.17 | -3.68 | -0.91 | -0.59 | -4.15 | -1.46 | -0.37 | -5.30 |
| 31 | HOU | -3.04 | −0.01 | -1.52 | -3.91 | -4.27 | -3.49 | -2.32 | -2.64 | -3.09 |
| 32 | LV | -3.62 | −1.08 | -0.48 | -2.89 | -0.51 | -3.30 | -5.40 | -5.70 | -7.07 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | -1.32 | 1.79 | 0.77 | 2.01 | 2.83 | 2.43 | 4.11 |
| KC | -0.06 | 1.14 | 0.90 | -1.07 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 3.16 |
| IND | -1.15 | 2.31 | -3.89 | -2.42 | -1.25 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| BAL | 4.31 | 0.62 | 1.92 | 0.40 | 2.96 | 2.48 | 1.82 |
| ATL | -2.63 | -3.82 | 0.63 | -3.78 | 0.01 | -1.13 | 1.48 |
| TB | -1.42 | -0.14 | -5.01 | -4.53 | 1.22 | 0.05 | 0.98 |
| PIT | -3.75 | -1.19 | 0.33 | -2.17 | -2.84 | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| JAX | -0.76 | -1.39 | -1.45 | -3.83 | -0.80 | -0.49 | 0.29 |
| MIA | -2.12 | -3.42 | -0.91 | -0.70 | -4.90 | -0.73 | 0.14 |
| SF | -1.81 | -0.11 | -1.27 | 1.12 | -0.07 | -1.09 | -0.11 |
| DAL | -1.19 | -1.31 | -0.71 | -0.32 | -3.04 | -0.55 | -0.28 |
| DET | -2.43 | -2.24 | -2.16 | -1.24 | 0.56 | -1.45 | -0.45 |
| NE | 1.80 | 0.40 | -1.62 | -2.21 | -1.85 | -0.85 | -0.46 |
| CHI | -0.81 | -1.18 | 2.96 | 1.20 | -1.61 | 1.94 | -0.62 |
| WAS | -0.17 | -0.87 | -1.71 | -0.51 | 3.98 | 0.28 | -0.73 |
| ARI | 1.81 | -0.53 | -0.61 | 1.10 | 1.28 | -1.27 | -1.38 |
| TEN | 3.00 | 0.05 | -2.26 | -1.58 | -2.96 | -1.48 | -1.44 |
| LAR | -2.32 | -2.11 | -0.99 | 0.20 | -1.72 | -0.24 | -1.50 |
| NO | 1.20 | -3.05 | -3.06 | -3.07 | 0.07 | -2.95 | -1.90 |
| CIN | -2.92 | -2.12 | -1.28 | -1.45 | -0.56 | 0.41 | -1.95 |
| CAR | -0.51 | -1.09 | 0.46 | -1.96 | 0.22 | -1.14 | -2.66 |
| DEN | -2.35 | -2.02 | -2.19 | -2.05 | -0.84 | -0.55 | -2.70 |
| HOU | -1.52 | -3.91 | -4.27 | -3.49 | -2.32 | -2.64 | -3.09 |
| PHI | -0.62 | 2.53 | 3.08 | 0.61 | 3.29 | -0.63 | -3.52 |
| NYJ | -2.66 | -0.64 | -1.31 | -4.12 | -1.41 | -1.82 | -3.82 |
| NYG | -1.27 | -2.06 | 1.79 | -3.89 | -1.70 | 0.86 | -4.28 |
| CLE | -0.43 | 1.57 | 1.44 | -2.82 | -1.52 | -1.30 | -4.52 |
| MIN | 0.56 | -2.43 | -2.59 | -1.68 | -2.05 | -0.76 | -4.84 |
| LAC | -3.68 | -0.91 | -0.59 | -4.15 | -1.46 | -0.37 | -5.30 |
| GB | 1.45 | 0.86 | 0.30 | -1.82 | 0.23 | -0.90 | -6.06 |
| SEA | 0.53 | 0.96 | -0.75 | -1.26 | -1.21 | -2.17 | -6.68 |
| LV | -0.48 | -2.89 | -0.51 | -3.30 | -5.40 | -5.70 | -7.07 |
Rush EPA since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Rams (1.80), 2019 Ravens (4.09), 2020 Ravens (4.31), 2021 Eagles (2.53), 2022 Eagles (3.08), 2023 Bills (2.01), 2024 Commanders (3.98), 2025 Ravens (2.48), 2026 Bills (4.11).
Ravens have led this stat 3 of 9 seasons.
The best season on record is Ravens 2020 at 4.31; the worst Raiders 2026 at -7.07.
The league average has fallen from -1.19 in 2018 to -1.57 in 2026.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- off_rushing_rush_epa
- Side
- offensive
- Family
- Rushing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.