Indianapolis Colts — Exp pts rush, 2026

Value2.67
Rank#4 of 32
League average-1.03
Rank in 2025#3 of 32

Indianapolis Colts — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Exp pts rush is

Expected points added by the running game: for every rush, the change in expected points before and after the play, summed over the season. A three-yard run on third-and-two is worth something here; the same three yards on first-and-ten is worth less. It values what the running game did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it gained.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the Bills lead at 5.28; the league average is -1.03.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

BUF · 5.28

League average

-1.03

Best to worst

11.21

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	5.28	5
2	KC	4.23	4
3	BAL	2.69	5
4	IND	2.67	5
5	ATL	1.48	5
6	PIT	1.35	5
7	CHI	0.99	5
8	TB	0.98	5
9	JAX	0.29	5
10	SF	0.17	5
11	MIA	0.14	5
12	LAR	-0.13	5
13	DET	-0.14	5
14	DAL	-0.28	5
15	WAS	-0.41	5
16	NE	-0.46	5
17	CIN	-1.06	5
18	ARI	-1.08	5
19	CAR	-1.32	4
20	TEN	-1.44	5
21	NO	-1.90	5
22	DEN	-2.04	5
23	NYJ	-2.65	5
24	HOU	-2.65	5
25	MIN	-3.27	5
26	PHI	-3.52	5
27	NYG	-3.73	5
28	CLE	-4.52	5
29	LAC	-5.30	5
30	GB	-5.49	5
31	LV	-5.79	5
32	SEA	-5.93	5

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 5.28

League laggard

SEA · -5.93

League average

-1.03

Spread (max − min)

11.21

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	5.28	6.30	100%
2	KC	4.23	5.26	96.8%
3	BAL	2.69	3.71	93.5%
4	IND	2.67	3.69	90.3%
5	ATL	1.48	2.50	87.1%
6	PIT	1.35	2.38	83.9%
7	CHI	0.99	2.02	80.6%
8	TB	0.98	2.01	77.4%
9	JAX	0.29	1.32	74.2%
10	SF	0.17	1.20	71%
11	MIA	0.14	1.17	67.7%
12	LAR	-0.13	0.90	64.5%
13	DET	-0.14	0.89	61.3%
14	DAL	-0.28	0.75	58.1%
15	WAS	-0.41	0.61	54.8%
16	NE	-0.46	0.56	51.6%
17	CIN	-1.06	-0.04	48.4%
18	ARI	-1.08	-0.05	45.2%
19	CAR	-1.32	-0.30	41.9%
20	TEN	-1.44	-0.41	38.7%
21	NO	-1.90	-0.87	35.5%
22	DEN	-2.04	-1.01	32.3%
23	NYJ	-2.65	-1.62	29%
24	HOU	-2.65	-1.63	25.8%
25	MIN	-3.27	-2.24	22.6%
26	PHI	-3.52	-2.50	19.4%
27	NYG	-3.73	-2.70	16.1%
28	CLE	-4.52	-3.50	12.9%
29	LAC	-5.30	-4.28	9.7%
30	GB	-5.49	-4.47	6.5%
31	LV	-5.79	-4.77	3.2%
32	SEA	-5.93	-4.90	0%

Does Exp pts rush matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 829–749–37 ATS (52.5%) across 2020–2025, #151 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (146–118, 55.3%); its worst 2021 (129–141, 47.8%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	129–141–2	47.8%
2022	271	146–118–7	55.3%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	141–122–9	53.6%
2025	272	136–133–3	50.6%

Exp pts rush in 2026 vs 2025

Bills lead at 5.28 — they ranked #1 last year. Seahawks are last at -5.93 — #28 last year.

The league average is -1.03, down 0.87 from -0.16 last year.

Biggest riser: Falcons, #23 → #5. Biggest faller: Giants, #5 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 11.21; 23 teams are within 2.77 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

KC · +3.56

Biggest faller

LAC · −5.80

Most consistent

BAL · −0.19

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▼ -0.87

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	KC	4.23	0.67	+3.56
2	ATL	1.48	-0.86	+2.34
3	BUF	5.28	3.38	+1.89
4	DET	-0.14	-1.10	+0.96
5	PIT	1.35	0.44	+0.91
6	MIA	0.14	-0.65	+0.79
7	NO	-1.90	-2.54	+0.64
8	TB	0.98	0.38	+0.60
9	JAX	0.29	-0.18	+0.47
10	SF	0.17	-0.12	+0.29
11	IND	2.67	2.38	+0.29
12	ARI	-1.08	-1.27	+0.19
13	BAL	2.69	2.87	−0.19
14	TEN	-1.44	-1.25	−0.19
15	LV	-5.79	-5.58	−0.21
16	DAL	-0.28	0.13	−0.41
17	HOU	-2.65	-2.12	−0.53
18	CAR	-1.32	-0.69	−0.64
19	NE	-0.46	0.21	−0.67
20	LAR	-0.13	0.68	−0.80
21	WAS	-0.41	0.54	−0.95
22	NYJ	-2.65	-1.63	−1.02
23	CHI	0.99	2.29	−1.30
24	CIN	-1.06	0.54	−1.60
25	DEN	-2.04	0.01	−2.05
26	MIN	-3.27	-0.35	−2.92
27	CLE	-4.52	-1.18	−3.34
28	PHI	-3.52	0.15	−3.67
29	SEA	-5.93	-1.42	−4.51
30	NYG	-3.73	1.05	−4.78
31	GB	-5.49	-0.28	−5.21
32	LAC	-5.30	0.50	−5.80

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 2.71

Multi-year laggard

LV · -3.19

Biggest improver

BUF · +0.70/yr

Biggest decliner

LV · −1.00/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	2.71	+0.70	-0.16	2.36	2.15	2.64	3.33	3.38	5.28
2	BAL	2.58	−0.04	4.92	0.74	2.15	1.19	3.52	2.87	2.69
3	KC	1.50	+0.29	0.46	1.73	1.87	0.62	0.93	0.67	4.23
4	PHI	1.24	−0.56	-0.24	2.86	4.37	1.07	4.01	0.15	-3.52
5	CHI	0.78	+0.20	-0.39	-0.85	3.32	1.48	-1.42	2.29	0.99
6	ARI	0.38	−0.39	2.11	0.32	-0.38	1.43	1.52	-1.27	-1.08
7	WAS	0.32	+0.23	0.35	-0.71	-1.66	-0.51	4.62	0.54	-0.41
8	IND	0.11	+0.38	-0.33	2.93	-3.78	-1.98	-1.12	2.38	2.67
9	SF	0.05	+0.22	-1.75	-0.05	-0.23	2.03	0.32	-0.12	0.17
10	GB	-0.20	−0.96	2.33	1.31	1.06	-1.07	0.72	-0.28	-5.49
11	NE	-0.26	−0.37	2.34	0.84	-0.97	-2.21	-1.59	0.21	-0.46
12	TB	-0.47	+0.30	-0.11	0.99	-4.47	-3.06	1.97	0.38	0.98
13	CAR	-0.51	−0.12	-0.26	-0.79	0.83	-1.80	0.45	-0.69	-1.32
14	PIT	-0.53	+0.41	-2.60	-0.83	1.01	-1.21	-1.87	0.44	1.35
15	TEN	-0.55	−0.71	3.54	0.54	-1.58	-0.87	-2.81	-1.25	-1.44
16	LAR	-0.62	+0.32	-1.70	-1.66	-0.82	0.44	-1.15	0.68	-0.13
17	DAL	-0.64	+0.05	-0.96	-0.71	-0.45	0.62	-2.81	0.13	-0.28
18	CLE	-0.73	−0.90	0.35	2.32	2.06	-2.62	-1.52	-1.18	-4.52
19	DET	-0.79	+0.40	-2.22	-2.24	-1.25	-0.10	1.51	-1.10	-0.14
20	CIN	-0.86	+0.31	-2.87	-1.25	-0.04	-1.10	-0.24	0.54	-1.06
21	SEA	-1.00	−0.99	0.99	1.47	-0.03	-0.91	-1.21	-1.42	-5.93
22	ATL	-1.01	+0.57	-2.35	-3.37	1.05	-3.41	0.43	-0.86	1.48
23	JAX	-1.03	+0.22	-0.76	-1.29	-1.30	-3.29	-0.67	-0.18	0.29
24	NYG	-1.14	−0.24	-0.52	-2.05	2.25	-3.89	-1.09	1.05	-3.73
25	DEN	-1.26	+0.15	-1.95	-1.37	-1.78	-1.56	-0.13	0.01	-2.04
26	NO	-1.37	−0.31	1.80	-2.29	-2.69	-2.04	0.07	-2.54	-1.90
27	MIA	-1.44	+0.20	-1.48	-3.29	-0.20	0.13	-4.76	-0.65	0.14
28	MIN	-1.47	−0.31	0.91	-1.94	-2.36	-1.67	-1.58	-0.35	-3.27
29	LAC	-1.81	−0.23	-3.16	0.14	-0.17	-3.86	-0.82	0.50	-5.30
30	NYJ	-1.95	−0.09	-2.53	-0.64	-0.98	-3.94	-1.30	-1.63	-2.65
31	HOU	-2.79	+0.07	-1.33	-3.85	-4.27	-3.49	-1.82	-2.12	-2.65
32	LV	-3.19	−1.00	-0.17	-2.46	-0.32	-2.81	-5.17	-5.58	-5.79

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	-0.16	2.36	2.15	2.64	3.33	3.38	5.28
KC	0.46	1.73	1.87	0.62	0.93	0.67	4.23
BAL	4.92	0.74	2.15	1.19	3.52	2.87	2.69
IND	-0.33	2.93	-3.78	-1.98	-1.12	2.38	2.67
ATL	-2.35	-3.37	1.05	-3.41	0.43	-0.86	1.48
PIT	-2.60	-0.83	1.01	-1.21	-1.87	0.44	1.35
CHI	-0.39	-0.85	3.32	1.48	-1.42	2.29	0.99
TB	-0.11	0.99	-4.47	-3.06	1.97	0.38	0.98
JAX	-0.76	-1.29	-1.30	-3.29	-0.67	-0.18	0.29
SF	-1.75	-0.05	-0.23	2.03	0.32	-0.12	0.17
MIA	-1.48	-3.29	-0.20	0.13	-4.76	-0.65	0.14
LAR	-1.70	-1.66	-0.82	0.44	-1.15	0.68	-0.13
DET	-2.22	-2.24	-1.25	-0.10	1.51	-1.10	-0.14
DAL	-0.96	-0.71	-0.45	0.62	-2.81	0.13	-0.28
WAS	0.35	-0.71	-1.66	-0.51	4.62	0.54	-0.41
NE	2.34	0.84	-0.97	-2.21	-1.59	0.21	-0.46
CIN	-2.87	-1.25	-0.04	-1.10	-0.24	0.54	-1.06
ARI	2.11	0.32	-0.38	1.43	1.52	-1.27	-1.08
CAR	-0.26	-0.79	0.83	-1.80	0.45	-0.69	-1.32
TEN	3.54	0.54	-1.58	-0.87	-2.81	-1.25	-1.44
NO	1.80	-2.29	-2.69	-2.04	0.07	-2.54	-1.90
DEN	-1.95	-1.37	-1.78	-1.56	-0.13	0.01	-2.04
NYJ	-2.53	-0.64	-0.98	-3.94	-1.30	-1.63	-2.65
HOU	-1.33	-3.85	-4.27	-3.49	-1.82	-2.12	-2.65
MIN	0.91	-1.94	-2.36	-1.67	-1.58	-0.35	-3.27
PHI	-0.24	2.86	4.37	1.07	4.01	0.15	-3.52
NYG	-0.52	-2.05	2.25	-3.89	-1.09	1.05	-3.73
CLE	0.35	2.32	2.06	-2.62	-1.52	-1.18	-4.52
LAC	-3.16	0.14	-0.17	-3.86	-0.82	0.50	-5.30
GB	2.33	1.31	1.06	-1.07	0.72	-0.28	-5.49
LV	-0.17	-2.46	-0.32	-2.81	-5.17	-5.58	-5.79
SEA	0.99	1.47	-0.03	-0.91	-1.21	-1.42	-5.93

Exp pts rush since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Rams (2.40), 2019 Ravens (5.31), 2020 Ravens (4.92), 2021 Colts (2.93), 2022 Eagles (4.37), 2023 Bills (2.64), 2024 Commanders (4.62), 2025 Bills (3.38), 2026 Bills (5.28).

Bills have led this stat 3 of 9 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 5.31; the worst Seahawks 2026 at -5.93.

The league average has fallen from -0.75 in 2018 to -1.03 in 2026.

Week to week — Week 4 to Week 5

Since Week 4: Dolphins up 11 (#22 → #11), Commanders up 9 (#24 → #15), Steelers up 8 (#14 → #6); Broncos down 10 (#12 → #22), Eagles down 6 (#20 → #26), Cardinals down 6 (#13 → #19).

19 teams moved by two places or fewer.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_rushing_exp_pts_rush
Side: offensive
Family: Rushing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.